thats the idea my friends , Gov Spending without thinking is necessary otherwise how to ask for more tax?, GST will solves it and the spending binge will start again rewarding the devils.Dont forget pension is to keep the fix deposit voters in place.

I think the present Gov hand is tied as this DNB is an US axis project with huge consequence in foreign affairs if it is replaced. Too bad the last Gov sign it as there can be no turning back or face the warth of US and we all know what can happen. Just swallow the cost and move on as the average citizen don't even know the intricacies or don't care.

I think there is Insider taking advantage of HY option tradings in real time to arbitrage on the price HY is buying or selling. As a Big refiners with huge volume of hedging volume and strong industrial knowlege HY should be able to profit from hedging itself. This is just my opinion.

Yes great way to make money I would say...remember to not Discriminate and scrap all those dangerous vintage cars, old ferari , pochee, lembukini . No shitty excuses to exempt those incl all Sultan n BN parasites old cars

its more to do with major stakeholders in the car ,petrol service n mfg industry whether to push EV. They need time to reposition themselves so as to not damage their rice bowl. Basic EV is already selling in millions in China, nothing fancy looks more like the first Kancil is super economical and robust with minimal parts to go wrong. If this happens our poor rich petrol stations n petrol car mfg n supply chain will be badly affected. The gov is in bed with these cronies that keeps the gov in power so...let them playlah we pay

As a refinery u sell foward (hedge) to satisfy and safeguard your operational and borrowing cost. Crack spread is consider supernormal when it reaches $15 per barrel. So its only rational for HY to sell foward to lock in at $15. Doing so means they make a loss of $10 if the price shots to $25 fair deal i would say. So if the next qtr the do the same but the spread goes down they will make more profit even though the crack margins goes to $10...thats what will happen so it averages out but of course its not perfect

Breakeven crackspread is about $5 per barrel, assume $20 refining margin per barrel now so a gross profit of $15 less $5 for hedging loss. All figure in USD and very conservative. 10 millions refined barrel per qtr gives Gross profit of USD150 millions. Lets give an uncertainty discount of a further 50% to be safe .. USD100 millions ok is this fair?

Yes hedging will lock in profits or loss or realised profits for the qtr deducting the hedging cost which can be substantial in cpys that actively hedge. I acually make a huge mistake of assuming an oil stock OVV in US that they will not make much profit as they hedge at a pretty low price long term a large portion of their sales to satisfy their creditors n banker. I took profit too early otherwise I would hv made huge returns.

Serbk n Sapulaa is a very clear cut case of conjob like 1malaisiaDBoleh with strong political shits. SC n law is being side step. Now given time they r trying to cover all the Indah water holes with creative bandaids n gov subsidi. All foreign oil n metal MNC hedges their position n its very often their hedge will go negative (loss) once in a while. It will average out over the subsequent period as the hedging is done continuously. Don't buy if u think its expensive.

HY hedging of their oil purchase and refining spread is a very important part of the business. The loss n gain in hedging will usually balance out over time to reflect moving average of Prices without getting caught in a sudden up or down spike. Of course this assume a consistent and good hedging strategy. That said the probability of huge upside in subsequent qtr profit is very likely. Don't forget you cannot increase refining capacity much in the short term. Almost no new refineries are being built as the risk dwindling demand is real in the next 10 years.
At present all refinery are running above 90% capacity which can leads to major unschedules breakdown .

The Ages PA is the elephant in the room, Those who wanna buy u better read the PA clauses for conversion before commiting ...
Sinkar say this is a major conjob by the Boss to manipulate the counter. But then again in KLSE anything can fly including elephants. Good luck

U want to know why OSK is so cheap...Look at the Boss reputation OLH..similar to Bosku. He will screw u and ask u to say thank Q

hahaha.. I realised you deleted my comment by reposting this again. Trying to con retailers is bad Karma. Anyway I won't comment further as you will delete it so for Investors beware of this Guy....Cheers

Hahahaha... you know what is a milk cow?
A company run buy political parasites and incompetent Managenents. need to thave more reasons to avoid? I rather save my salivas n let u enjoy the best company in KLSE

now the price of warrant is attractively priced as a few fellows here hv spread false info probably to collect cheaper. Don't forget who hold the most warrants now.. Our Boss mah you think he will screw himself ?
I have switch all my Shares to son warrant now. Guess I am also stupid.

Let MAS go bankrap. Save face to save a forever loss making airline filled with parasites u must be mad. Reset the airline with proper n transparent financial control or don't bother just let Airasia survive. It will save tax payer billions every year and everyone can fly cheaper.

hi pls add me. Thks

Chucki yes the management is not strong.There is actually no positive cashflow beside PP construction which is delayed by covid. Given the circumstances the right issue is definately needed to ensure the cpy can survive this few mths before PP can contribute.
Jaks is not a developer but took an opportunistic bet during the property booms then. Its just like now everybody is trying to produce mask ,gloves vaccines labels . Many will fail. Even PP is not Jaks expertise but Jaks got lucky after the Chinese cpy is willing to take up the whole resposibility of developing the PP. It was a time when China was ramping up new laws to limit Coal PP. A lot of coal PP project was shelves so it was at that time Jaks got a sweet deal.
Right issues at low price n warrants is a typical manipulative moves that signal the fact that Goring time is not far. Go looks at all those counters that does this stunts...

I hope in future everybody should refrain from typing in Bold as it makes reading very difficult.
And yes Chucki I think with all the cashflow problems in theory it should close shop, sell the 30% power plant to the China partner for $600 millions cheep and sell all the properties at 60% market value to the vultures. This I think is the best solution. Settles all loans and return the balance to shareholders. This will actually be worth more than 70sens by my sinkar financial estimate.

yep this 2 cpy are milk cow for the cronies...putting label also got problem one hehehe but no problem screwing the rakyat

yep final word, you make money in the maintenance not the tol collection directly as its politically unfeasible. Look at PLUS n u know the maintenance costs is daylight robbery. Its also why they delist the highway maintenance cpy when they realized their mistake.

Yes glove stock will make supernormal profit but its a short term spike. It will normalised pretty quickly and all those retailer will be taken for a ride. It is also for this reason we don't ascribe high valuation to this kind of earning events. The most recent fools gold rush happen 3 years ago to Oil refiners like Hengyang n petron or maybe u don't remember.
Glove industry is an industry with very low profit margin just like the our electronic industry stocks. PE for this kind stock should be lower than average in the KLSE stock market.

Those who play glove n mask conters beware, supernormal profit is likely for 3 to 6 mths only then it will drop like a hot brick. Don't believe me ? Remember Hengyuang Petron hihihihi...

Hi DK66 please add me to your list.Thks

Hi OTB yes in perfect conditions it can be achieved.
I think the major reason Jaks is at a low price is Issues regarding perceived Jaks management honesty and transparency.
To me the major shareholder have been diluting and issuing securities that is questionable in nature.
THey only hold very little Jaks shares which makes IB nervous and that goes for me as well.hahaaha... I know most of their holdings are held under nominees which begs the question what is the reason behind this.
Controlling shareholder management seems extremely secretive on the power plant compare with MFCB which have clear precise announcement and costing right from implementation to final COD.
lastly yes I am holding Jaks share bcos even at this price it still a good bet compare with its peer as long as a reasonable discount is given for the above uncertainity. No risk no gain...
konghefattchoy everyone

Sorry guy made an error...it should be
No need use Black shoe also can tell it is stupid to buy son over mother

Let put this issue of jaks wa to rest.
My Sinkar analisis say don't buy This warrant, its is extremely illiquid so when its time to sell or buy u find no buyer/sellers and u stuck holding it or to accept much lower offers. In fact I don't reccommend buying any Call warrants in KLSE unless u r insider or expert in warrants.
The purpose of warrants is leverage, here there is almost no leverage,
you hv to pay a huge premium for the right to buy the warrants that hv little leverage. How stupid can u get.
No need use Black shoe also can tell it is stupid to buy mother over son.
For those who think i talk kock ...its your decision your monie please go buy the warrants over the mother.
Kong hei fatt choy everybody

GE is holding long term so the warrant as of now serve no useful purpose. Yes it hv time value but minimal leverage value. it is very illiquid asset. I guess GE use official black shoe anal lisis to make a decision to convert. Hahahaa...
My take is malakof is a Milk cow of the cronies and YTl though well run is not as smart as spore that sold them their Power plant.
Go ahead n buy malaikof or ytl to proof me wrong.

Yes but my sinkar warrant black shoe mahzeelee tell me one looks its a no brainer to sell the Warrant n buy the mother. Simple no need calculator ..but then again if u insist do an indepth anal lisis n come to a conclusion n tell me if its worth my Ringgit or not

Yes Jimmy the warrant is way overprice but then this is a malaisia mrkt.Its cornered by the Bos so be careful.
I remember buying a lot of Bonds in KLSE during the 90s as its was underprice and during the crazy bull run then it went up like crazy. Hahahaha...buta buta make money

sorry the exercise price of warrant

Peter if not mistaken the Warrant price will be readjust lower as this is a one off dividend arising from capital gain on disposal of assets.
Gamuda shares will probably adjust downwards but the warrant remains as it is post dividend

The bottom line is Jaks essentially pay very little for the 30% of 1.2Gwh power plant. Bear almost negligible time value capital risk and cost which can be considerable if its like 4 years construction period like YTL.
Mudajya even though is running now will probably be a lost cause as far as I can see as the 10 year of delays will reduce its theoretical IRR to negative as the interest on debts and capital cost compounds upwards.

30% my sinkar accounting std est r very conservative.I usually discount off 30% to 50% estimated earning if there is no tangible proof of possible outcome

edkfc sorry like I say my estimate is from sinkar audit of all figures gleamed from DK,OTB n some figures from historic earning of different power plants around that have their accounts published. RM150 millions is 90% possible realisible gross income for the first year of full operations.
Sorry if my estimation is not very rosy but it is still a very good profit for Jaks. Anything above 150 will drive the price up the roof. Even my estmate for MFCB is way below IB if I take the long term estimate. Short term 3 year profit for MFCB is guaranteed by EVN so no issues until the 4th years onwards.
kong hei fatt choi everybody

I think the figure given by OTB is not correct. The probability of achieving RM150 millions net profit based on my sinkar estimate is a realistic base figure. I don't think 0.05 usd Kwh os more like revenue and not gross profit as this is extremely high

yes goody all will rise but how many percent returns ultimately for MFCB vs YTL power vs Jaks. Go figure which n u hit the Jackpot of Gold vs silvr vs Bronze...Kong hee fatt choy everybody

Please look at the power plant contribution to total future profit rather than talking about IRR. YTL power vs Jaks. Coal power plant is mature tech and hv proven reliability compare with shale oil which is a dirty power source. It is for this reason YTL can get better IRR terms. Even if you look closely at MFCB hydro plant you will realise the Power offtake commitment is only for 3 years if not mistaken , after which its based on effective demand and this will affect the profitability quite drastically. It is for this reason I choose Jaks over MFCB. Of course the IB never mention this clauses at all in their reports.

Yes its good for Lynas getting long tax free income tax and get to sidestep Australian strict rules regarding dangerous chemical processing there.
Mahatail last pet project with tabung Aji Rare Earth in Perak is still not completely resolved. It been push under the carpet for I think 3rd time not too long ago costing I think 100 millions of ringgit. IT was with the japanese mitsubishi and is supposed to be very safe then.
I don't mind if they keep the factory in Pekan Pahang anyway since those folks so love our world greatest kleptoman they deserve it

IDSS selling most active in the morning so safer to buy in the evening when those parasites need to cover their solded positions.

Of course its a rat. RM20 million can buy a china flying car tack in some batik motifs n maybe Mamataik foto and pocket the RM15 million change. AMNO style mah

A lot of people/IB in MFCB is ignorant or choose not to know of the fact that the hydro power plant have a guaranteed of power purchase for 3 years only and for the subsequent years it is based on actual demand.
Hydro plant will alway be used to regulated electricity demand as it can ramp up and down quickly eg at night when demand is very low. Coal plant is used as base load supply as they need a long time to varies their output. It is for this reason most coal plants have guaranteed minimum supply in the contract.The 3 years guarantee is to ensure MFCB can recoup a major portion of its investment before facing the vagaries of fluctuating electric demands on its bottomline.
According to a report I read the average power supplied by all the hydro power plant in the Mekong Basin is below 50% of maximum installed capacity. You do the maths

Don't touch it. OLH reputation is well known. Go and ask the experienced retailers and traders to see why nobody play his stocks. Beside him is V Tan counters , Halim saad ,Bukakaki etcs. Low PE Stocks compare with their peers usually have reasons behind them. Good luck

hi linjie MFCB hydro power plant gets a guarantee off take for 3 years. After 3 years power output will be regulated by daily demands eg morning will run at max capacity and night time throttle down to min so on average you be lucky to sell more that 50% of rated capacity. All IPP cost of input like coals is pass on to consumers so there is no difference.
Jak is a base load plant with guaranteed min payment and extra income if demand is aboved min treshold based on agreed profit margin. It run for full period of the concession.
Actually both Jaks and MFCB have got very good terms from the IPP concession. MFCB plant cost is on the low side.
Jaks is essentially getting the power plant for peanuts as China during that time have just started to reduce dependency on coal plants during which quite a number of Coal power project was cancelled. Jaks timing was perfect. THe coal plant cost for Jaks is higher than normal but then again Jaks don't technically pay the full amount for its share.

maybe i read wrongly go n c the details again..3 yrs fixed, subsequent years earning on market demand, 5 yrs tax free subsequent 24% on profit etc

guaranteed payment is for 3 year after which it will depend on demand. I guess MFCB will likely try to pay off the loans within 3 years as this will remove the uncertainity after this period. Its a very good deal for MFCB as its capital cost can be recoup within 3 to 5 years. The assumption for earning after 3 year will probably be very much reduced as it will be on demand basis.

ok then its very good returns way higher than any power plant that i look at. Sorry than I never seen IRR this high before.

Hi Turbohydro, yes I am an novice here so let me ask you to find out yourself if MFCB power plant is a base load or a load following power plant?
If there is a garanteed offtake from the client then very good then the next question is how many % of capacity?
For your info jaks coal plant is 60% min which means if demand is less than 60 jaks will get paid for 60%. I make my profit assumption based only on 65% of capacity factor although a lot of people will take 80% to shiok sendiri n to sell the idea as gold harvesting.

I guess u hv to Google it yourself as I was not interested in hydro but doing some comparison n benchmarking
electric power plants under differentt real world scenarios . Anyway I like to thank people like you to give feedback n opinions different than by own

Yes that report is paid by MFCB and not the independent Gov reports on Hydroelectric power in the Mekong region. Its better to see the Independent report that shows the various hydroelectric dams operating there and it details a lot of Dams of various capacities. Generally larger dams have better capacity factors. However the good thing about this MFCB dam is the low cost per MW compare with its peers.