BULL RUN! RM0.60 coming month end. May 25 we get Q1 2021 results!

RM 0.60 by month end

Not hard to imagine they will start paying dividends from next year onwards.

From Monday, will fireworks. Anticipation of good Q1, and improvement throughout the year. OSV utilisation will increase in tandem with the sustained increase in oil prices. Lower depreciation expenses (due to writeoffs, impairments and disposals), and lower finance costs (due to lower loan outstanding and lower interest rates).

Bad. Shape.

Annual report out today. Let's see what it contains! :)

Kinda bummed about the low share price. But worry not, profits of ~RM120mil await us in Q1 2021! One more month left...

https://www.enquest.com/media/press-releases/article/enquest-signs-spa-for-100-equity-interest-in-the-bentley-discovery

Good potential for tieback to Kraken FPSO, thereby extending the field life. Kraken already has Bressay waiting in the wings. Very good news!

RM0.60 by end of May 2021

Too cheap

But the current price is just crazy low!

Be prepared for slightly lower profit as Kraken had shutdown in Q1.

Chilll fellas. The good times are upon us

No impairment. Profit is expected at RM135mil, maybe higher due to gains from disposal

No limit up but RM0.60 is coming soooon

Good news soon :)

Congrats folks!

https://www.eni.com/en-IT/media/press-release/2021/04/eni-announces-new-light-oil-discovery-offshore-angola.html

A new oil discovery was made in Block 15/06 East Hub (Armada Olombendo FPSO). 200-250mil barrels of oil in there. Will extend the production plateau for Armada Olombendo (better long term visibility!).

We huat huat this week yea.

Bumi Armada, close two eyes also, will get EPS of 9 sen this year (average EPS 2.25 sen per quarter).

Next year, EPS per quarter will rise to 2.75 sen, total EPS 11 sen for the year when Armada Sterling V comes onstream.

This is discounting any possible improvements in the OSV segment, and also excluding any possible impairments.

So minimum EPS 9 sen in FY 2020, minimum EPS 11 sen in FY 2021...you do the maths.

My gut feeling is, dividends will resume next year. There will be so much excess cash.

Good price to accumulate. Next quarter, target normalised eps of 2.25 sen per share. Core net profit of around RM135 million.

Poor sentiment

Pullback. For those long term, keep holding. Short term, sentiments driven by oil price.

@Robertwalters, all fields go into natural decline after the first 1 or 2 years. Kraken is heading into natural decline. This is part of the design. It is still expected to generate over 35,000 bopd. Nothing to worry about. This can be confirmed in the production figures, which peaked in 2019 and have been steadily declining since.

Note: The decline is very steady. It's like a plateau more like.

This counter reeks of insider trading. The company still havent announced that it got the Jerun CPP contract. Insiders know it so they buy. I think it is unfair that insiders have this knowledge for so long and are able to push the price by over RM0.20 in about a week.

Very close, but +RM0.03 this week. Good. Slowly but surely!

Slow volume day, need volume to fly

Visiting 50 sen soon :)

50 sen soon fellas!

Good luck for this week! :)

Reason I know Armada fpso operations well is really due to hours upon hours of research done. Looks at FPSO Claire Court documents, look at tender documents, look at the reports of operators such as Enquest (Kraken gpso) and Pharos Energy (Vietnam fpso).

Bumi Armada is in very good hands people. They are looking to exit OSV and go all in for FPSO.

Only reason I said I may want to sell is if the price jumps alot in the next week or two. Cause there is highly likely a pullback later on. I bought at RM0.225, and I will be tempted to derisk if I get a good value now. Can always buy back later.

I'm with 102% paper profits. Will keep holding at current price levels, but if it can go above RM0.55 next week, might sell. If go above RM0.65 in next 2 weeks, confirm sell also.

Long term wise, Armada has the potential to go above RM1.

- Just imagine, EPS for last quarter was 2.45 sen. Core net profit (adjusting for impairment etc) was 2.90 sen.

- By Q1 2022, they will have Armada Sterling V operational in India. Profit contribution per annum is around RM120mil. This is worth EPS 2 sen per year (or EPS 0.5 sen per quarter).

- In H2 2021, there is a good chance of securing contracts in the Caspian Sea for their subsea assets. This will bring in about RM200mil revenue per annum.

- They are paring down debts. Interest rates are still maintained at current levels. As such, finance costs should continue reducing each quarter. Again, less finance cost translates directly to more profit.

- Depreciation costs should also reduce as many OSV have been either impaired or sold.

- Only major risk for impairment is Armada Claire, and maybe the Caspian Sea assets if they don't get any contract in H2 2021.

- There is also an outside chance of getting additional FPSO contract this year. There is a very good chance of getting additional FPSO contract next year (when financial situation will be even more improved).

- In rising oil price scenario, more work for all OSV. Utilisation rates will be higher. Asset disposal prices will be higher as well.

All the points above are supposition. But what we know is, Armada core net profit in 2020 was around RM480mil, roughly EPS of 8.15 sen. Even if none of the above turns out to be true (which is very unlikely), we are already at a base EPS of 8.15 sen. Armada is selling at under 6x PER.

Future is bright!

MHB probably got Jerun contract win. Insiders must’ve been buying

Well done to those who cashed out these few days.

To those still holding, may greater fortunes be bestowed upon you!

Okay next week ke rm0.50

Wow wow what happened maaan

Loss energy.

All in!!!

I am holding for RM0.60++ range. But if the price runs up I might sell first, buy back later.

What just happen. Volume disappeared at 0.445

Anyone have the latest research reports by Kenanga, Affin, AllianceDBS and UOB? Appreciate if y'all could share the text here :)

Will nice if can come to 50 sens soonly!

One day push up to RM0.50

Hank you for sharing research reports!

Anyone have CIMB report to share pls?

PublicInvest TP RM0.49 (from RM0.32).

Any other reports? Pls share. Especially for CIMB and RHB!

Maybank TP RM 0.43 (from RM0.17))

https://factsetpdf.maybank-ke.com/PDF/211893_CN__2f93bed17abd4a9885c866a37af5f2b5.pdf

Pls share other reports such as CIMB, UOB and RHB

Tomorrow Kenanga will up to RM0.40++

CIMB and RHB up to RM0.50++

Maybank up to RM0.45++

HL and MIDF up to RM0.70++