Stock Pick 2018.

1) CWG (30%)
2) MHB (25%)
3) TCHONG (20%)
4) SKBSHUT (15%)
5) AJIYA (10%)

Entered once more today @1.38. Avg price now at 1.60. Tan Chong Motors is well-positioned to benefit from the strengthening Ringgit, rebound in consumer sentiment (which always eventually mirrors GDP growth rate) and launch of new models in the new year (namely Serena Hybrid 2018 and Xtrail 2018, plus one or two other launches). Possible upside from quick growth in Indochina as well, namely Vietnam and Myanmar.

Tan Chong trades at very undemanding valuations. True, it could be a value trap, but this is also precisely the type of company that becomes a multi-bagger over the long term (5-10 years) due to the depressed valuations.

Who cares about technicals? Just buy based on fundamentals and intrinsic value.

Some value is emerging. Very attractive. Buy for the very long term (3-5 years++) and it should be a good investment. Be disciplined and average down every 15% drop or something, and NEVER SELL unless the fundamentals deteriorate.

@Sebastian, I "incorrectly" bought ES Ceramics in March at 0.465, sold in October at 0.370.

I have no strong opinion on ES Ceramics. I think there are better buys out there honestly speaking.

Dividend is OK. Now to play the waiting game and to let the story unfold.

@Jon, don't fall for the "sunk cost" fallacy.

This is just cross trades or between the same fund house (like RHB to RHB fund).

Don't get so excited about yesterday. It might just have been rotational play (churning). Hold and keep till this goes to the RM0.80-RM1.00 region at least.

Sell, then buy again once MYR hits ~RM3.95 to the Dollar and the price is at ~RM1.05. Hevea still has solid fundamentals and is probably the best fibreboard company in SEA.

Not a bad result. But PNB still got many to throw. Might go up a bit but upside is capped as PNB continues paring down their stake.

Got booted out of the FBM Mid 70 Index and thus the FBM Top 100 Index. This means that there might be some selling pressure in the week ahead.

How come SIMEPROP have 8 characters in the ticker? I thought Bursa max limit is 7 characters? Any info on this ?

@ajibkor, that's the stupidest reason man. It won't even impact Parkson's bottomline by 0.01%.

Cannot move be happy lah, means you can buy more at lower and longer.

Thanks for your kind concerns dear folks. I am more than capable of thinking for myself. My investment style has served me very well indeed. Tan Chong Motors will be a winner. When? I don't know. But till that happens, I can rest easy knowing I am buying into a company that will surely rebound in the mid to long term.

Look at MHB.

The stock market is forward looking. Tan Chong is selling at depressed valuations. Any minor news (new car launch for example) will serve as a catalyst to bridge the valuation gap.

We shall judge the rationality of my decision in the 12-24 month period.

Not BV per say, but the trough situation. We are at the bottom of the cycle. Improving Ringgit, improving GDP in Malaysia and Indochina, new models in the pipeline...from bottom to top, companies easily move 4-6x. Now the question is, are we at (or near) the bottom? That is the key.

Btw I like the Q3 report. Regardless there will be a selldown tomorrow and I will be there to pick up the pieces. Some of them at least.

@ahson, mentality is half the game. You need to be wise enough to get out when the fundamentals deteriorate. Yes, do not react to price of the stock. But react to the fundamentals. Ask yourself this question. Introspect.

Come on...anyone with the CIMB report pdf copy?

CAn anyone link to Cimb research pdf document please?

yingkang87, I don't really care about short-term price movements since I am a long-term investor. However, having said that, should the fundamentals deteriorate, I will not think twice about selling out. For now, I assess that Bumi's fundamentals are still solid. However, for example, should the Kraken project be terminated, I will immediately sell out and say bye bye.

UOB TP at RM1.06. Kraken and Olombendo full acceptance are the risks outstanding.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/11/24/bumi-armada-petronas-dagangan-on-uob-kay-hian-buy-list/

Sadly I can't add more now. Must wait till mid December. If it still is at around RM0.52, I will definitely add more.

Use your brains. TP and profit forecast at HLIB/JF Apex reduced, and they are assuming MYR USD at 4.30!

Yes, kraken is the biggest risk.

HLIB from RM2.19 to RM1.91.

http://www.bursamarketplace.com/index.php?ch=research&pg=research&ac=283513&bb=288879

JF Apex from RM2.12 to RM1.58.

http://www.bursamarketplace.com/index.php?ch=research&pg=research&ac=283515&bb=288881

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These guys have no idea. JF Apex just saja saja can reduce future expectations by so much. Two months ago they recommend everyone to buy at RM1.70! Listen to IB sure make you pokai. Act independent of their stupid recommendations.

Perhaps now the sentiment will be too pessimistic. If it somehow goes to sub RM1.10-levels, I might consider re-entering. Stock market always moody and swings wildly and overreacts.

@RJ87, no I just want to know...the cost of finance...is it being accounted for on a proportional basis, or on a fixed basis? Meaning, let's say their Bareboat Charter for Olombendo is $100 a day. The finance cost is $60. The current revenue is only 80% of BBC, so $80.

My question is...in the above scenario, are they taking the finance cost as $60, or at 80% of $60? If it is the former, that means that earnings have A LOT of upside as the BBC nears 100% for Olombendo and Kraken. If it is the latter, then earnings won't rise as drastically.

choochen, read LiiHen report. It incorporates the latest USD MYR in their future outlook. It does NOT look good. Use some common sense. Ringgit is recovering to its fair value at RM3.80-RM4.00.

Based on the results per Sep 2017, the BV/Share is at RM0.633 (after taking into account the rights issue). At RM0.505 which was my entry cost in the Rights Issue and subsequent market purchase, this indicates a P/BV of 0.798x..which is a super bargain for a stock about to embark on a period of sustained growth (and the growth might be in the triple digits!).

The ROE is exactly at 10.0% for the trailing for quarters (once you adjust for the rights issues sharebase dilution). It's even higher once you take into account the one-off corporate exercise expenses accounted for in Q4 2017. And it will be even higher going forward.

Good luck to everyone who decides to buy tomorrow onwards. Make sure to hold for a long time, or at least until such a time till the fundamentals deteriorate.

To me Hevea is too sensitive to FX rates. So I sold out as I felt the chances of Ringgit strengthening was great. I won't be surprised we see a drop to RM1.20 region by middle of next week, if not tomorrow itself.

Just wait until you see the jokers at HLIB downgrading their forecasts and TP.

Lit Kok Wai, TA cannot predict fundamental changes. Don't talk BS please.

Wow, profits have crashed. This is a big problem now. Luckily I got out two weeks ago at RM1.71. Good luck to those still holding. Remember, sell when fundamentals change. Have the fundamentals changed? You need to figure that out by yourself...

Gone. Losses some more...

@RJ87, the revenue is indeed strong.

Now the question is...how is Bumi Armada accounting their loans? For example, for Armada Olombendo, they have a loan repayment lasting for the duration of the contract. Are they paying 100% of the loan amount due, or only proportional to their share of the BBC (i.e. ~80%)? If they are paying loan fully now, that means the additional remaining 20% BBC would be almost pure profits since there are no other costs associated besides taxes.

Does anyone understand what I am trying to say?

I am so excited man. I will be a Tambun shareholder, sooner than you know it. I have been patiently waiting since ~RM1.50. Look at my comments above.

Kraken revenue in Q3 lower than in Q2. This does not make much sense. Meaning, Armada is not getting paid for this. Also Olombendo is not yet full revenue recognition. Maybe RM0.80 is the fair value until those two issues get sorted out. I hold my position as I think long-term Bumi is likely to surprise on the up side.

It all depends on how much was the Armada Intrepid sold for. What's the net profit arising from that? As long as it is <RM22mil, we should see slight upgrades.

Any estimate for how much it would have sold for?

Income by disposal is not much though

What a beautiful result. 90sen here we come

The calm before the storm! Lets see how it goes.

Jokers you all. Do you see the amount and frequency bought vs his total shareholding and director salary? Think a bit more critically lah.

@shortinvestor, Tambun has been saying its unbilled sales can last for 2 years for donkey years. Go read their Q reports from 2014-2015 when unbilled sales was hundreds of millions of ringgit.

@cwkor, from your link:

"“As long as unbilled sales visibility remains close to one year in general and also assuming that developers can maintain flattish sales over the next couple of years, it would mean steady earnings trajectory over the next few years."

Tambun unbilled sales does not even offer visibility for 1.5 quarters. It is indeed worrying.

RHB cuts TP from RM1.35 to RM1.10.

http://rhb.ap.bdvision.ipreo.com/NSightWeb_v2.00/Handlers/Document.ashx?i=9ada1678a11e42f5890b54ea3f1fc342

So you are saying they will be able to sustain their business? I think RM1.02 is a decent buy in point to get one foot in, but at the same time the property situation is extremely weak all over the country.

Almost 20x net gain over 5 yrs. Congrats to those who held all the way!

@DualShock, I have already spoken about the reason for the slow model update. Look at my posts from before.

At these prices and valuation...close eye and buy lah. Sure double, possibly 4x, maybe even 6x upwards in a 5 year period. Tan Chong isn't going anywhere.

Are you guys crazy or what? The stock market is ALWAYS forward looking. Go and see the drop in unbilled sales. Latest figure is a measly RM95mil! There will be minimal revenue in upcoming quarters and profits will crash as the unbilled sales keep dwindling.

Tambun is a very good long-term prospect. But just based on this Q result I will not get excited. Rather the unbilled sales is at an ALL TIME low and not being replenished. Revenue is basically coming from here alone.

Just as proof, and without making any adjustments to earnings to take into account one-off expenditure (for corporate exercise and write down bad receivables) nor taking into account interest savings since the loans will get pared down.

EV: 63.78 + 23.47 - 3.43 - 21.05 = 62.77
EBIT: 6.45 + 2.08 +1.40 = 9.93
EV/EBIT = 6.32

EBIT (adjusted for corporate exercise expense only): 9.93 + 0.79 = 10.72
EV/EBIT (adjusted) = 5.86

Beyond this you can adjust the EBIT to take into account the write down on receivables and the savings on interest expense of RM0.65mil per the Abridged Prospectus. Not to mention the balance sheet will be even better come Thursday.

That's just the basic stuff. There's so much more info to be gleaned about CWG (both quantitative and qualitative).