Well, each to their own. To me, the Q result is not bad, not that great either. More worrying is the fact that it will miss out on Shariah list re-inclusion by a very small margin! The current cash:assets ratio is at 33.8%, just very slightly above the requisite 33.33%.

Thing with Prolexus is, there are definite growth catalysts with the fabric mill and the Vietnam plant. Topline growth + margin expansion from both the new plants. I'm happy to pay ~0.9X BV for almost assured double digit long-term ROE.

Come on guys, are you capable of doing any reading? There was a one-off expense of RM4.1mil billed in this quarter. You can see that's why admin expenses much higher.

Look at the ROE, very solid. NAPS also solid. Borrowings pared down even further. Fundamentals are sound.

QR is ok. Negatives should be priced in. But who knows, may drop to rm1. Problem is cash to total assets still don't meet shariah requirements. Gone case lah like this. Hold your horses guys. These will be some bearish months ahead.

Quoting my old comment

Posted by nikicheong > Aug 3, 2017 11:53 PM | Report Abuse X

Guys, don't talk nonsense lah. NTA was RM1.58 last quarter, fall to RM1.57 this quarter. The RM2.11/2.25 reported on Bursa is a TYPO likely referring only to total assets.

Stupid investors who sell today. Q report is the EXACT SAME! Look at my comments from two months back. I already point out their NAPS is wrong. It's a basic thing. You should know it. The financial statements themselves have no issue whatsoever.

Expect a jump up tomorrow at open, as The Star has published a positive sector report. But then expect a selldown given the volume/liquidity being offered.

sapurakencana, I believe the rights issue is unnecessary in the normal course of business. CWG's financial ratios, balance sheet and net debt/net gearing have all improved over the past few years. Profitability is increasing.

As such, to me, the rights issue is a very fishy move. If you read the financial statements, it seems they want to sell Arto to European market in larger quantities. This requires a larger working capital, which they will fund from this rights issue. Arto also promises higher profit margins given its premium product status.

Prior to the rights issue, one of the Director's and the Chairman's daughter have been aggressively buying shares from the market. It's either they are doing it to support the share price to ensure the rights issue takes place, or it is because they want to increase their stake because they know business will be better.

The Executive Director (with merely 14% ownership at present) has pledged to subscribe to 52% of the rights issue...again, this tells me that he knows something good is coming.

As far as I am concerned, my entry price is RM0.505. The book value per share ex-rights issue should be at around RM0.62-RM0.63. This means I buy in at P/BV of around 0.8x, which is an undemanding valuation. From a P/E ratio perspective, once you strip out one off expenses (and without factoring in future interest expense savings), I am buying in at a P/E of 8x...again very reasonable for a company that could very well experience growth of 15-25% in its bottomline annually over the next 3-5 years.

Yes, this requires some amount of extrapolation and confidence in the future of the business, but I believe I have created a sufficient margin of error for myself. CWG's product are of a good to decent quality. We have all used or seen their exercise books. Management is heavily invested in the company. Financials are improving. Valuations are undemanding. I see little downside risk, and substantial upside risk with the chance of this being a multi-bagger over the next 3-5 years.

Alas, time will tell if my investment thesis proves to be right.

Looks good. Can it fall to RM4.20?

Result will be out sometime next week. I will be cut off from the Internet (going for a one week off the grid trip).

Good luck to everyone. It's probably going to be lower profits by about 20%, but I believe everything's been priced in. If things drop below RM1.07, then I will top up on the following Monday (after re-assessing the company's prospects, of course).

I believe it will re-rate upwards however, as long as the cash position drops below 33% of total assets. For this to happen, the cash must be transferred to PPE, either to the Johor mill or the Vietnam plant. Once this happens, the company will gain Shariah status and the Shariah funds will re-purchase the stock to average down.

Either way, this is the stock market. Crazy things happen. It's up to us discerning investors to take advantage of Mr Market's mood swings.

Poh Huat is indeed undervalued, but the issue is there are 52mil outstanding warrants to be converted. So the dilution is about 25% to the total outstanding shares (less treasury shares). I believe this is a reason why the market is staying away.

Otherwise, the ROE is amazing.

If the quarter is bad and it falls to below RM1.75 I will consider entering.

For now I am holding Heveaboard, but that seems to offer little margin of safety already plus I have some nice gains in 4 months, so I am looking for a more attractive furniture company that offers a better risk-reward profile.

As at 30 March 2017, there were 31.8mil warrants (HEVEA-WB) outstanding.

By my calculation, till 22/9/17, an additional 20.9mil warrants have been exercised.

This means outstanding warrants should be around 10.9mil remaining. Potential dilution at this point remains extremely low.

Got some CWG-OR today. Will subscribe to their rights soon.

Does anyone here have any opinion on the impact of FX movements on Prlexus' bottomline? How much of their strong performance in FY15-FY16 can be attributed to the favourable FX rates?

walao gohkimhock, those are the two sectors that should most interest value investors given their bombed out valuations. but of course, need to be very patient, choose wisely and have to have holding power.

Beautiful, fall lower. I will get my second chance soon enough!

Not bad. http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hlib-research-starts-coverage-lii-hen-target-rm504

HLIB covering many furniture/wood companies now

Curious, how come their land held for development jump up so much in June Q result? Why no explanation provided?

I mean you can see UMWOG, one of the largest failures in corporate Malaysia, trading at 0.33X P/BV. MMHE at RM0.625 was trading at 0.39X P/BV. You think that makes sense, with such a beautiful balance sheet?

My recommendation, unless you fully know what you're doing, best to just stay away for a while until you see some re-rating catalysts.

Rocket, really? There are no near term catalysts. Unbilled sales at all time low in past 5 years, very few/low value new property being launched.

Yes, for long term is undervalue, but there is just no re-rating catalyst with likely very, very bad earnings and reduced dividends for the next 2 years.

@ekal, simple....cause the stock was trading at RM0.63...with RM0.415 in NET CASH! Super healthy balance sheet. Petronas group of company. It was far too undervalued. The contracts will start flowing in and earnings will return once Petronas and the PSC restarts its major oil and gas projects in Sabah/Sarawak.

Too fast back to 0.75, didn't give me enough time to buy at 0.65. Damn!

What the hell man.

Jon, it may not necessarily be super cheap on an absolute basis (eg: P/BV still at around 0.95X), but when you do factor in the future growth from the Vietnam/Johor plants (on a conservative basis) then it does absolutely become a bargain offering.

I'm quite happy in saying that in previous months I chose first Hevea, then Tchong and then finally Mhb over Prlexus, but now Prlexus offers the best value. If it drops again(below RM1.20) once the next quarter results out, buy more loh. Otherwise, just enjoy the ride for the next 2 years into being a multi-bagger stock.

Also, who cares about historical P/E ratios or industry-average P/E ratios. That's the biggest BS from Investment Banks. You must stop thinking in that way. A P/E ratio is effectively the market's confidence in the future earnings growth of a certain company. That's it. Magni was undervalued for many years before, that's why even when the earnings growth was high, the P/E didn't reflect it as Magni is kind of an "under the radar" stock. It wasn't covered by any major sell side analyst as far as I know as well.

I don't know in-depth about Magni, but a cursory glance over its financial position and price/balance sheet ratios tells me that it offers little margin of safety.

You must look at multiple angles. From a P/E angle this *may* look cheap, but from a P/BV angle this is expensive...at 2.34X. ROE is at 27%. To me, there is little margin of safety given the P/BV. I would rather the P/BV fall to ~1.5-1.8X before I come in.

Teh_Invest, this is because the bonus issue does nothing to improve the company's fundamental value.

So just a random up? Volume was high. Institutional buying simply because the price was too low?

Maybe someone report to SC. MD badmouth his on company, EPF start accumulating at 1.48, MD then gives positive information to HLIB. Seems like a rigged game.

Again, no point getting excited over one green day. Anything can happen.

R40s, unlikely for such a shift.

1) Topline for Magni still grew
2) Profits were actually also maintained YoY once your strip out FX gain/loss.

Magni was simply overvalued, Prolexus is simply undervalued. Magni would have sold off no matter what happened (not even a 20% YoY profit increase could have saved that from happening).

Magni was overvalued to be fair. Do you see the book value relative to ROE?

Epf already cleared.

Btw magni results out. http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=197711&name=EA_FR_ATTACHMENTS

Strip out FX and PBT is almost the same YoY.

Hot money...haha. Not going there.

I like this game. Now management realizing they screw up (or was it on purpose?) call HLIB for a meeting to push the price back up. They give info that RTA expansion line completed, China ASP can be raised due to stronger Yuan, etc.

Good thing. Nice game. We may head back to RM1.70 (if there is support from the FX also).

We can consider it a victory if can hit 1.17 today and close at least at 1.16

sheep debt need to settle first. Likely no dividend for FY 17 and FY18. Dividend back on the menu in FY19.

Today oil counters were sold down across the board, not just Armada.

First tanker offload from the Kraken field completed.

http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=81968&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

Can confirm Amundi sold on the 12th as well. Let's party man!!!

Skliew, it's called pips.

Skliew, my NTA is at RM1.24. I calculate NTA only based on equity attributable to owners of the parent - non-controlling interest's equity is disregarded (as it should be). Number of shares outstanding at around 174mil after discounting 6mil treasury shares.

How they get T4Q P/E of 13.4X? That is if you fully dilute the warrants conversion, but it is silly as the warrant exercise price is at RM0.92 dated 2021. Actual T4Q P/E is at 10X excluding warrant dilution.

Also, how can they call it "demanding valuation"? Net cash, low P/BV, possible expansion in ROE. It's at worst fairly priced, maybe very slightly under priced.

But I missed the boat at RM0.72. My margin of safety has eroded. I obviously hope it comes down another time for me to get in, but if it doesn't I'd be interested to see regardless where this goes in 2-3 years time. Lots of potential I believe.

Looking at the past one month volume chart, 5/7 highest volume days have Amundi selling to the market. 2/7 remaining days are 8 Sept and 12 Sept, for which substantial shareholding circulars have not been published. Highly likely Amundi was the major player again.

Some analysis:

Lowest of the "7 days" is 22/8 with volume of 371,500. The next highest (i.e. 8th highest trading day) is 152,000. It shows that on days Amundi shows up, volume is MUCH HIGHER than on days Amundi is away. Also look at the one month chart...non Amundi days tend to be green days.

22/8 -- 300,000/371,500
24/8 -- 500,000/620,200
25/8 -- 500,000/528,700
06/9 -- 450,800/512,200
07/9 -- 763,800/979,700

Roughly on all the above days >80% of the daily trade volume is coming JUST FROM AMUNDI!

We can extrapolate for the research skliew has done that on 08/9 and 12/9, Amundi was selling again. If we take that Amundi would be involved in ~80% of the trading on those two days, then 80% * (412,000 + 578,900) = ~793,000. Which again matches the balance outstanding shares held by Amundi per skliew's research.

The data is there for all to see. Look at the buy queue at the end of today...it's got lots of interest. Sell queue barely anybody left now.

I feel tomorrow is when we can finally change course (unless somebody else decide to mess with the party!). Congrats to those who bought between 1.14-1.18. Those who didn't get what you get at open in the morning on the morrow. Prlexus time to move up has come!

PS: Might be wishful thinking, but there might be some truth to it here.

Now that MYR has stopped its ascent, we can go back to mid 1.65 hopefully. MD really potong stim lah.

Different managers. Epf outsource to many companies. Epf buying and selling on the same counter is nothing new.

Interesting work. Hopefully they've buggered off for good. Doesn't really make sense to sell at this so called bottom to be honest. As an EPF member, I'm kinda angry they're doing stupid things like this. Buy high, sell low. But as you said they might have to do it due to internal institutional guidelines mandating a selling off of non compliant securities within 4 months, for example. That's a possibility. Another possibility is they find out from the CEO that cash will still be more than 0.33x of total assets at the end of this quarter.

Whatever, that's their loss. Hopefully the selling ceases now that Amundi is likely out of the picture.

Skliew how many Amundi left holding? I have a feeling their want to sell all. No point keep whatever they have left. Once they bugger off we should be fine.

Maybe it can fall back to 0.65. I will be gleeful. Or maybe it goes to 0.90. Market still doesn't trust the earnings quality of Armada. Time will tell if the so-called "smart money" is smart after all, or not.

Results are always going to be baffling. You go and see Tan Chong. I bought it in May 2017 at RM1.82. The recent quarterly result was TERRIBLE, yet the share price did not fall any lower as it was massively priced in. I kinda feel the same will happen with Prolexus. Not to mention, Prolexus Q4 17 results WILL NOT be looked at for the profitability...rather what will be seen is has the cash & cash equivalents been transferred to plant, property and equipment on the balance sheet. This is because having a ratio of more than 0.33X cash/total assets took it out of the shariah compliant list. Getting back to below 0.33X of the ratio should see it re-included on the Shariah list in November. Islamic funds would then be free to buy the stock again and heavily average their holdings down.

To me, the stock market is crazy. Sometimes strong earnings beats see the stock falling. And sometimes a poor showing sees the stock rising. To me I am safe in my knowledge that Prolexus must be near the bottom at these levels. It may certainly fall lower, yes, but it will be an even more enticing bargain in such a situation.