PtosperousRealm, my key points in this forum is the complexity of geopolitics . There exist numerous hypocrisy,lies and double standards . The governments must exercise realitic and rational judgements so that they would not end up like Ukraine who blindly think that the western style democracy will bring prosperity to their residents but instead a big disaster.

Another glaring error off Edge report is the last paragraph. HLIB reported that the 3 to 5 % drop in Nitrile gloves is offset by the 3 to 5 % INCREASE in Latexx glove but Edge reported drops in.ASPS.for both types of gloves. This is misleading .

Prisperous Realm, Creamia went back to Russia through Referendum .Majority of Creamian speak Russians and more than 90 % voted to join Russia rather than Ukraine who was poor and dependent on Russia for oil and natural gas. The creamian was smart to choose Russia .Today Ukraine is in a pitiable state with big unemployments. Prostitution are rampant.Income per capita drop to a level which is almost the lowest in Europe. Ukraine used to be highly industrialised . In fact the first Chinese AC Lioaning the body of which was built by Ukraine.Today they have lost such capability.Ukrainian made the biggest mistake by ditching its neighbour and former master and sided with US and western Europe to go against Russia.

ProsperousRealm, I am supporting neither. There should only be one standard not double standards. You cannot use one.standard for one area and then.dont apply the same standard on the others .If Daoyu claim is conveniently considered political , then the others can also be considered political . Your master US is fond of creating double standards for its own interest . When the HK violent protesters stormed the HK legislatures in 2019,the US government and western medias supported them as freedom fighters. When the US violent protesters stormed Capitol Hill, the US.government.called them thugs and shoot them. The double standards are just too glaring. Do you think the US really care for the interests of Taiwanese , Hongkies and SEA countries ?? Just look at the Ukrainians were played out when they thought that the US and Western.European countries are with them when they embraced their big legs and ditch.Russia.

ProsperousRealm, please look at the map. Daoyu island is 4 times nearer to China than Japan. By Geography , Daoyu belong to China as what you advocated .Why your US master supported Japan to nationalise Daoyu island ? Using your logical moral ground, Falkland should belong to Argentina. Why your master US did not set thing straight by asking his little brother Britain to return Falkland to ARGENTINA ?

ProsperousRealm , China do not have AC more than 5 years ago when OBAMA openely decided to focus in the Pacific and SCS by having more military presence to contain the rise of China . When Japan claimed the Dayou island with the support of US , China knew their intention of containing her. China decided to build man make islands ( equivalent to non moving AC ) to counter your master US stronger military presence. China was provoked by Japan and your US military presence.

ProsperousRealm ,Which country did China grab?

South China Sea is an important sea route where a few trillions of trade pass through this sea every year. Both China, Japan , Korea, Vietnam , Philipines etc has both economic snd military interests on this important sea route. This sea belong to these asian countries and it is to the interests of these countries that this SCS be controlled by SEA countries. Unfortunately, Japan, Korea , Vietnam and Phullipines do not see it this way . They want the US to control SCS. They wants the US aircraft carriers to patrol the SCS. Will China sit still and watch that your trillions of import and export be hurt by someone powerful enough to control your passage? China do not have aircraft carriers . To mitigate this weakness , China need to build a few man made islands such that China can control this SCS.which.is the life blood of China. All the countries in SEA including China has been colonised by US,JAPAN , Britain, France, Portugal ,Belgium, Dutch etc and humiliated in the last 2 to 3 centuries with resources exploited .Of course China has suffered the most with 8 countries colonised her at the same time. China compensated with few islands taken over by these colonisers plus compensation amounted to few years GDP to these countries after losing a few wars with these countries. China will never accept another humiliation again. When its neighbours tried to get the US and the ex colonisers to patrol SCS, such threat could not be ignored .It is ironical these countries preferred their ex colonisers to patrol the SCS than China who has never colonise them but a victim itself of these ex colonisers.

HLIB maintained the tgt price of 8.14 after meeting with topglove management. Q3 earning is expected to be better than Q2 which had a shutdown in last Nov/Dec. Had there been no shutdown, the Q2 earning would have been rm 500 million more than the 2870 millions. Hence , barring any unforseen.circumstances ,Q3 earning is expected to be at least 3.4 billions in view of higher capacity . With 70 % payout, we can expect another 29 sen dividend in.June.

geary , thks for your comment. Yes, Different Analysts has different projections. I based on my projections using Frost and Sullivans ASP projects and Top glove capacity expansion numbers . For example FY 2024 , I used the ASP for Nitile at US 30.5 per k pcs and for Latexx at US 19.0 per k. Capacity assumption is 205 billion, utilization of 90 % , exchange rate of 4.05 and.net margin of 20 % . The other assumption is 70 % Nitrile and 30 % latexx. PE assumptions is up to analyst to peg . The historical average PE for fy 2015 to 2019 is 27. So far 2 analysts used PE of 18 and 23 respectively which are well below the historical numbers .

US used to have black discrimination problem . Even as recent as 1970 s Martin Lurther King can only had a dream that the blacks children can travel in the same bus and study in the same schools as the white children. Now with the ex president DT instigation and racist remarks in the last few years, the White Americans started to discriminate ASIANS. The US president and the government had better look into their own domestiv human right problem instead of condemning others based on hearsays.

Newway, Yes. HLG tgt price was based on the FY 2015 to 2019 average . Their PE is 23 but UOB number is 27. I believe UOB number is correct. However , UOB is very.conservative . They decided to use PE of 18 from the average of year 2010 to 2014 . I believe Topglove deserve higher PE because of its huge net cash plus 3x capacity of 2019 cap. Furthermore , I m using FY 2024 earning instead of 2023 . FY 2024 ASP s assumptions are also lower than 2023 . However, I agree with you topglove is worth more than rm 8.14 which HLG reiterated this tgt price after visiting Topglove.management.

titan3322, I am.using FY2024 eps which is considered stabilised , may I know whay PE of 13 when during FY 2015 to 2019 , the.markets already given PE of 27 to topglove.

Two days ago , i did a projections for earnings in. FY 2022 , 2023 and FY 2024 based on projected expanded capacity and eroded ASPs , I derived the followings earnings and EPS.
FY 2023 8000 millions EPS 84 .2 sen
FY 2023 5306 millions EPS 55.9 sen
FY 2024 3766 millions EPS 39.6 sen

Assuming FY 2024 is in stabilised state where demand and supply is in.equilibrium and ASP also at stabilised state, what is the PE multiple to be given to the EPS of 39.6 sen ? The average historical PE of pre pandemic FY 2015 to FY 2019 was 27 . Should a PE of 27 be given to topglove since Topglove in.2024 will be a much stronger company with 3x.capacity.and huge net.cash ? If we assign.a conservative PE of 20 , its price.will be RM 7.92 . If we assign a PE of 23 , its price will be rm 9.11 . If we assign.a PE of 27, its price will be 10.69. i did not add.back the dividend ot earning per share of 2021, 2022 snd 2023 yet which is expected to be more thsn 1.50 even if we discount them to present value. I welome any comment.

Xinjiang was one of the tourist destinations in most of the travel agencies in Malaysia for years. If there is genocide of Uighurs , will China allow Xinjiang to be visited by foreigners ? There are so many videos by westerners and real.xinjiang peoples showing their homes,their mosques, their work places ,their farms and their recreations areas. Their populations doubled in the last 40 years. The growth rate is much higher than the Hans. China had 56 ethnic groups. The minority has special priviledges in.getting entry to Universities. The US wants to USED the Uighurs to cause conflict with the Chinese governments so that they contain China.On the contrary,there were about 5 millions red indians 250 years ago. Today only half a.million left. They were almost exterminated by the Whites. Similarly, how many aborigines left in Australia ?

There is.a huge difference between the 90 s dividend distributed by Airasia versus the coming dividend distributed by Topglove. The 90 s Airasia special.dividend is derived from the sale of Airasia money earning ASSET AAC which owned the planes and lease them to Airasia and other airlines . After distributing the dividend, Airasia lost a money earning AAC.and need to spend much more from leasing planes from the new buyer of AAC. Topglove dividend are strictly from the extraordinary profits. This coming dividend is from.Q2 earnings. There will be more dividends from.Q3,Q4 , FY 2022 and so on. Even after distributing the dividend ,Topglove is still a net.cash company with estimated.cash of more than 10 billions after HK listings in.June. On the.contrary , Airasia is in net debt after distributing the one time 90 s dividend. Topglove will continue to grow and.keep adding cash on the.cash piles .

Lets do another maths exercise to project FY
2 023 and 2024 earnings based on Topglove projected capacity expansions and Frost and Sullivans projected ASPs

FY 2023
Nitrile ASP US 35.1 per k ( 34 % Erosion )
Latexx ASP US 20.4 per ( 23 % Erosion)

Assuming 65 % Nitrile and 35 % Latexx ), capacity of 163 billions ( average of 146 and 178 billions ) ，margin 30 % , Projected earning is

( 0.65 x 35.1 + 0.35 x 20.4)x 162 x 0.9 x 0.3 x
x 4.05 = 5306 millions or

EPS of 55.9 sen

FY 2024
Nitrile ASP US 30.5 per k ( 70 % )
Latexx ASP US 19.0 per k ( 30 %)
Projected earning is

( 0.7 x 30.5 + 0.3 x 19 ) x 191 x 0.9 x 0.2 x 4.05

= 3766 millions or

EPS of 39.6 sen

With the latest capacity of 96 billions , we can do a projection of 2H FY 2021 earnings using the Frost and Sullivans 2021 pricings ( Nitrile US 85 per k and Latexx US 42.7 per k ) with assumptions of 95% utilization, net margin of 53 % and exchange rate of 4.05 .
The projected 2H earning is ( 85.1 x 0.5 + 42.7 x 0.5) x 96 x 0.53 x 4.05 / 2 = 6254 million.

We can also estimate FY 2022 earning with Frost and Sullivans projected 37 % ASP s erosions respectively . Using 60 % Nitrile ( US 53.1 per k)and 40 % latexx ( US 26.5 ) and 40 % net margin, capacity of 128.5 billions( average of 111 and 146 billions) and 90 % utilization , we get

( 0.6 x 53.1 + 0.4 x 26.5 ) x 128 x 0.9 x 0.4 x 4.05

= 7924 millions or

EPS of 83.4 sen assuming 9.5 billion shares after HK listing . With 50 % payout , expected dividend is 41.7 sen .

wcc, if you read public invest latest report dd 8th march, you can see what mfcb intend to do to improve earnings.

A few.asked in the forum whether.topglove share price will drop after it goes ex on 23 td March. This is a tough question.. Based on.my experience, most share prices will be adjusted downward temporarily for a short period of time and will move up later . It depends on what is the expected earnings for subsequent qtrs. Topglove management has stated clearly in.its earning guidance for 2H which will be better because of higher capacity, better utilization, higher ASPs , lower material cost . i estimate Q3 earning to be 3.0 billions while Q4 to be 3.2 billions . Based on 70 % payout , dividend will be 25.6 sen . Q4 dividend will be slightly lower at 23.5 sen assuming dilution from HK listing in June.

While it takes a few years to vaccinate 80 % of the world population , there are always a big percentage of peoples falling under the categories of unvaccinated, just vaccinated between one day to 4 weeks, expired vaccinations waiting for re vaccinations. Therefore protections and preventive measures are still required all the time.

According to 钟南山 ，the head who was in charge of last year covid pandemic in.China, we should not put 100 % hope on.vaccines to eradicate this covid pandemic. First, it takes 3 to 4 weeks for the first dose to produce sufficient antibody. During this period, there is no immunity. Even after second dose, there is no quarantee you will not be infected . Those infected might have no symptom or very minor symptoms . You may still infect others. Therefore , it is important to continue having protective gears like face masks , gloves and social distancings. Besides, there is one year.expiry. Need to re vaccinate .

What drives the share prices are EPS, Growth rates, ROE, Cash Flow, PE.Ratio .,Dividend yield . In actual fact and by logic, bonus issue does not drive share prices .

Contrary to what many thought,the bonus issue does not help to increase the share price. Based on public latest report dated on the 8th March, the MFCB management.will not be resting on its laurel but will focus on.the growth of the packaging for the next 3 years. With the economic recovery post covid pandemic, the resource section.is expected to have higher earning. The 5th turbine is also expected to start work end of 2021.

After looking at MARGMA reports that demand will still exceed supply till 2023 and after that gloves demand will still continue to grow at 12 to 15 % annually which is higher than the pre pandemuc 8 to 10 %, I decided to add Harta at 9.63 and topglove at 5.27 yesterday. I started investing in.Kossan and Supermx in.2003 making more than 50 %. Then invested in.Supermx again in early 2009 and sold in mid 2010 making 5x profits. Then in 2013 invested in Kossan.and Supermx again making more than 50 %. This is my forth time investing in glove counters .Hopefully, I will be fourth time "lucky " . I am a strong fundamentalist.

The 35 % or 3 billions topglove shares owned by Tan Sri Lim will be equally diluted when Topglove is listed in HK. In return the.company will.receive 7.7 billions cash which.can be used for capacity expansion, acquisitions or even to pay for dividends . I feel that 5.20 is on the low side. RM 6.00 or more is fairer because the shares has been unfairly beaten down too much.

Good closing for all glove counters except Harta. Many fears and doubts on capacities ,demand., ASPs and growth rates at post pandemic stabilised periods are cleared.gradually with data from.MARGMA, and other sources. This could be the turning points after almost 6 months of downtrends. The winter will be over . Next is spring times.

Yong ken and Newway, thanks for the feedback and comments .

newbie5354, When leadtime went up to more than a year and ASP double or triple, those newbies with one or two bilkions capacity may get some business by selling cheaper and shorter leadtimes. Once the big boys reduce their.leadtimes to 3 to 4 months with slightly lower ASP s, these newbies may not survive. The.cost of putting one billion capacity is not low. It need about rm 100 millions. The big boys can.use their big cash positions to add the state ofvthe art automated lines faster. The newbies do not have such money unless borrow heavily.

HLG has just come up with its latest analysis and tgt price of rm 8.14 for topglove . HLG is the only IB who value Topglove using common sense which does not " omit or forget the super earnings of FY 21 to FY 23" . It assumes the FY 24 will go back to normal as beginning of post pandemic period . It gives a historical PE of 23x ( based on.FY 15 to FY 19} to FY 24 earning and then add the super extraordinary earnings of FY21, FY22 snd FY23 discounted to PV. In my opinion , this is the fairest method as compared with the other 9 IBs as mentioned in Pankaj Kumar Article last Saturday titled" Valuation.is an art " . Out of the 9 , Six used forward PE of FY 22 earnings and One used FY21 earnings and assigned various PE from 8 to 23 . Those used FY 22 earning completely " ignored " the super earning of FY 21 which.is estimated to be more than.10 billions. Besides the.PE number depends on gut feel without basis. The multiples are as good as plucking from the air. The 2 IBs which used DCF are Maybank and RHB . I am shock to see a remark by Pankaj that Maybank start its DCF from. FY24 .Why omit FY 21 ,22 and 23 which has the highest earnings. No wonder its tgt price is only rm 4.85 . Even I take the average new tgt prices of the 9 IB s ( exclude HLG) , it is still at rm 6.80. Pankaj kumar advocated using the earning of normal period and assign.historical PE plus total dividend receive from the super earning years. HLG summed up total earnings instead of dividend only. I think this is more accurate .This is my.opinion . Comments are welcomed.

sorry , typo . It should be 8 to 10 % during pre pandemic instead of 8 to 12 %.

Based on latest report from.MARGMA, there is a shortfall of 80 billions gloves this year as demand continue to outstrip supply . The shortage will contimue until 2023. Post pandemic, the growth rate per year will be 12 to 15 % compared with 8 to 12 % during pre pandemic. This is due to enhanced hygience which lead to higher usage from Food and Beverage and Aviation industries.

messi88 , you are right. You hit the key point. Every company make.mistakes. The important philosophy is realise the mistake and cirrect it . That is why we have ISO audits and NCR issued if there is non conformance . Once the correction.action is implemented, case closed and NCR closed. In practice every audit.will have a few NCR even in big reputable companies. No company us perfect. No point harping on a closed case issue.

valendinlou, did my message showed I am happy with the high suicides rates in China ? On the contrary I feel sad that such worsed labour conditions were not widely published . Based on your argument, Apple is also a pariah company . Why are you so unhappy that I brought up this.issue ? Is it because you think Apple is a saint which does not have labour issue in China?

Google Apple Foxconn high worker suicide issues in China.

Bullrunrun, Topglove will be building.mega hostels fully equipped with laudry , games room and other facilities like canteen with subsidized meals. It may also provide aircon and karaoke facilities. Their lives are better than local workers who has to pay their own rent , food and other amenities.

Topglove had also committed to spend another 70 millions to improve the existing conditions of its workers..Ironically , no one including the NGO s and authorities care about the much worse housing conditions of those construction migrant workers who stay at dilipidated temporary sheds with no proper toilets,sewerage and drainage.systems .Flies ,cockroaches are everywhere . Such uninhabitable conditions has been around the construction.sites for more than 3 decades . The authorities serms blind to these unhygienic conditions the workers face.

Since the issue of migrant workers need to pay big sums of agent fees to the agents from their own home countries , Topglovr hss.decided to pay off their debts for their workers who owed to their agents. This was unprecedented . Normally when we hire s.migrant worker , we only pay fees to our Malaysian.agent . Topglove spent more than 100 millions to pay off their debts.. These set a precedent . Before you take any foreign worker make sure these workers do not owe any agent fees from their country agent. Otherwise , you may be accused of force labour and end up have to pay off their debt beside what you have paid to your agent in Malaysia.

Will you buy a shophouse with its peak price 5 years ago at 2 millions but now cost only 1 million(50% down ) and the rental per year is 150k(15 % rental yield ) this year , 80k next year and 50 k in 2023 . After that nobody knows. As we know , property prices has been.on the uptrends since 20 years ago with some minor corrections along the uptrends. Property prices has gone up 3 to 4 x in the last 20 years. Topglove price is 50 % off the peak and pay good dividends. Topglove.share prices has gone up 200 to 300x since IPO .

I have read the Prospects commentaries
of last qtr financial results of all top six glove manufacturers in.Malaysia. All the 6 managements are optimistic for the financial results of the next few qtrs which will be better . Where the negativities of the IBs about these companies come from ? Their own imaginations or because of their own.interests to depress the price as much as possible so that they do not lose as much on.their warrants sold early last year with low exercise prices ? I trust the six CEO s more than the naysayers who keep pouring cold waters on these glove companies. The CEO s say 明天会更好 。The naysayers says 明天会不好。I believe 明天会更好

Today , comfort.has released its latest qtr result with 12 x yoy and 1.5 x qoq earnings. The section which draw my intention is on.the section on future prospects。The latexx gloves exhibited strong demand which is consistent with what Topglove see. The ASPs continue to go up for these cheaper latexx gloves. The demand could have come from those countries with lower per capita. Topglove still has a big chunk of latexx glove capacity and its leadtime is still high at 240 days indicating.strong demand. Last year the strong demand comes from mainly Nitrile gloves .Now these companies are seeing. strong demand from the cheaper latexx gloves. These higher ASP s from latexx gloves may mitigate the gradual drop in ASP.s for nitrile gloves next and subsequent year.

Newway , Topglove product latest mix is 44 % Nitrile and the rest are latex and vinyl gloves. Nitrile had more than double ASPs and margins than other types of gloves. Topgloves revenues volumes and market shares has always been.more than Harta. With.strong.demand of nitriles gloves, topglove new capacities are nitriles. In fact , topgloves has been converting latexx capacities into nitrile capacities. Today , topglove is number 1 in nitriles , in lattexx and in vinyl gloves global positions based on its latest presentation. Today, Topglove total capacity is 93 billion where Harta is at 44 billions.

Investmalaysia8 , IPO is to get funding to expand your capacities . In 2001 , automation.is rare and there arent many automation.house . Also , at that time, workers are still.generally easy to get. In 2008, automation is more cost effective with the higher cost of getting production.operators. Whether you are world number 1.or 2 depends on your market shares which can.be measured by revenues or volume. It does not depends on how automated or how efficient are your production lines. By the way , I dont see your presence in.Harta forum.even.though you like Harta and dislike Topglove. Sound funny . Do you buy any Harta shares ??

Coolbull, you can google in both Chinese and English . On you golden.rule of reciprocasy, I learned 500 years after Confucious that a Saint said 凡已所欲 皆施於人 which means " Do unto others what you wish others do unto you ". If these two sayings are practised by human race, the world will be peaceful .

Investmalaysia8. Imagine you like.Toyota car but you go to Honda forum where peoples are promoting Honda. You keep pouring cold water on.Honda cars saying all the negative things about Honda car like too expensive lah, lousy factories lah , etc and try to promote Toyota car in.Honda forum. What will the Honda supporters do to you ? Learn some very basic ethic 。Do not do unto others what you do not wish others do unto you as.what Confucious says.
已所勿欲 勿施於人。

Investment8, I am talking about IPO . Topglove IPO is 2001 whereas Harta IPO is 2008. By the way, I never talk bad about Harta unlike you keep talking bad about Topglove in.Topglove forum. I have my right to support Topglove in.topglove forum . If you support Harta, go ahead to support Harta in.Harta forum. I will not be like you talking bad about Harta in Harta forum just because you like Harta. As I said.before, I also bought Harta and I felt Harta was.unfairly beaten down by shorties from the high.of rm 20.00 to 9.00 using the unsubstaintiated claims that demand will go down, price war , pandemic.will be over, share price will go back to pre pandemic etc.

Investmalaysia8, Topglove is not only world number 1 in.capacity only. It is world number one in revenues, profits and number of customers world wide. It supplies 25 % of world gloves demand for many years. It is true that Topglove mfg lines are not as automated as Harta because Harta was a late comer compared with Harta. With the huge earnings ,Topglove is committed to improve its mfg lines with state of the.art automated equipments in the next few years to be on.par or better than Harta. Topglove glove selling prices are higher than Harta is a fact. Harta is still doing the catch up. You can confirm by readind the IB comments in.their reports.

Investmalaysia8, I did not say Harta does not have brand. Harta is a pioneer in Nitrile gloves, has good automation and best margin but their ASPs are lower than Topgloves. They are followers not leader in pricing . Harta stick prices were also beaten down more than 50% from the peak ,the same way topglove prices was beaten down .I added Harta at 9.40 and Topglove at 4.90 substantially . The glove counters were bashed unfairly by shorties and some IB s.Pls Check my earlier comments. .I bought topgloves in.early.July last year. Had sold more than half at 8 plus . If I had more money, I would have buy more Harta and. Topglove now.

Investmalaysia88, what ecosystem ? Tell me why the generic Viagra ,Avorstatin and others sell one third the price of the original Pfizer products even the IP s had expired many years ago ?. Even Sinovac vaccines also sell cheaper than Pfizer vaccines. For medical products which needs FDA approvals, brand name is even more important . Unbranded newcomers will find uphill pressures to penetrate the markets . These are.just examples of how world number one brands carry weight .

There is a brand advantage if you are world number 1 or number 2. You are price leader . For example Apple which was world number one 15 years ago in smartphone market. Even it was dethroned by Samsung 5 years ago and Huawei 2 years ago, its ASP is still the highest. The last few years, you see.new China competitors like Xiaomi , Oppo ,Vivo and Realme but Apple continue to sell more than twice their prices. The China brands can sell well only in.China , India ,Indonesia and other third world countries with less than half Apple pricings. Despite such fierce competitions from China, Apple continue to grow into a trillion dollar company with big cash reserve . Likewise , Topglove has been world number 1 for many years . Its brand has been.a great advantage. Its ASP is.also one of the highest if not the highest. Hospitals will not simply switch to unbranded new comers. These new comers do not have brands and economy of scale . They will.be wiped off just like how HTC, Sagem, ALcatel, BenQ, Siemens, Philips etc were wiped off in.the handset markets. Today, Apple remains very very profitable with big cash in the banks. It had just bounced.back to world number one . Topglove aggressive.capacity plans will increase it market share and continue to remain world number in.glove business .