ProsperousRealm, you want to talk about history of a few hundred years ? A few hundred years ago ,Australia belong to the aborigines . USA and Canada belong to the Red Indians, New Zealand belong to the kiwis. Just 70 to 200 years ago, the Spanish , British , Portuguese , French, Japanese and the Dutch invaded China, India, Vietnam , Malaysia, Indonesia ,Philipines, Korea and many many more countries poisoning their peoples with opium , forced their women to before comfort women .
Where were you ? Why are you blind to such blatant.atrocities and expansionists . Do you know how many red indians were killed by the whites ?

FortuneBlooming , Which country has China send its troops to invade in the last 20 years. Look at US and its allies .How many countries had they invaded ? There were more than 800 k killed and 3 to 4 millions lost their homes and became refugees because of wars started by US and the west . After 20 years of invading Afganistan , the US decided to pull out its few thousand.troops .The talibans will.take over and Afghanistan will come back to square one . US spent trillion in.the wars against IRAQ and Afgan , Libya.and Syria . In a recent.survey in 53 countries on which country is the greatest threat to world peace and democracy, the answer is USA.

US and the West are jealous and fearful of China success. China today is no more using Karl Marxs Communist System . China has been able to integrate successfully ADAM.Smith capitalism , Singapore Socialist and the ancient Confucianism to manage the country since Deng 'brave reforms. Deng called such.integrated.system as Socialism with Chinese Character. Over the last 40 years, China had lifted 800 millions out of poverty. This is very much.socialism in action. At the same time., it has created the most number of billionaires and millionaires in the world. This reflects its capitalist part of its system. Confucianism never advocate democracy but meritocracy in choosing talents in managing the country. Under Confucius way of choosing the best to run the country , candidate like Donald Trump will never be chosen to rule the country. He would have been kicked out in the first round . In fact, China should change.the name CCP to CSP or China Socialist Party.The word Communist has negative connotation based on its past records.

invest malaysia , since you bought supermx today , pls dont sell too early ya. Enjoy your holiday . Wear your mask as pandemic situation in malaysia is very bad. Take care.

Below are the average PAT.margins for the last 4 qtrs.
supermx 53.5 %
topglove 46.1 %
hartalega 43.0 %
kossan 39 .4 %

Supermx has the highest profit margin among the 4 top glove makers. This is due to the change of business models by increasing the percentage of OBM+Own distribution and decreased OEM % plus removing middle men like agents and dealers.
The markets should reward supermx with higher PE like what the markets used to reward Harta when Harta has the highest margin before pandemic. Instead , Supermax has the lowest PE of less than 4 today. Even Kossan has higher PE of 5.2 now. Supermx deserved a PE.of at least 6 since it also has the highest cash in.hand per share.

Invest malaysia , I see.. So today you buy back supermx hoping it will go higher right ? Good move. You are convinced with my numbers right ?

Invest malaysia , you sold harta at the wrong timing lah. Peoples buy low sell high but you do the opposite . I had shown you both Harta and Supermx will make better earnings than last qtr. Now you ask peoples to buy Genting? All tourism.related industry like airlines, hotels., F& B have been.losing money and will continue to lose . Peoples are fearful to travel and in crowded places .It will take years to recover.

A few months ago , LWC of topglove announced an additional 20 % special dividend for 2021 on top of the 50 % dividend policy. Harta has a 60 % dividend policy. With so much cash per share , supermx can also make a total 70 % special plus normal dividend this year. If the next few qtrs make one billion or more, it means the dividend per qtr will be about 26 sen per share. This will keep the shorties away .

Cash per share of top 4 glove makers

Supermx rm 1.47
Hartalega rm 0.78
Kossan rm 0.48
Topglove rm 0.29

Supermx has the highest cash per share in the bank. It has not been distributing out cash dividend as generously as the other 3 glove makers. It can still distribute another rm 1 and still.has rm 0.47 per share in the bank .

invest malaysia, why you sell at a loss for harta? EPF and Harta are buying back millions. EPF also bought millions of KOSSAN. Topglove LWC and relatives also bought back millions. I think they see values in gloves at such low prices .

invest malaysia. I see . Based on what you say IB s also buy and sell like ikan bilis . They just bought in early April and then.sell in late April. Their tgt prices are also fun . No values already . They buy and sell not based on.fundamentals but based on market sentiments. So you also.sold your Harta already lah at 10 something ,right? You still asked people to buy. Very black.hearted leh.

invest malaysia , I am.talking.about the period before 27 th April.when foreign funds and local institutions were net buyers while.the retailers were net sellers. During. these periods, the prices of all glove counters went up because of net buying from these institutions . Even the retailets were net sellers , they were out done by the stronger instutional net buying. Get it ? The question is why the foreign funds and local institutions pushed up the prices for that 3 weeks before April 27. Dont.tell me they do not know the ASP will be coming.down.from 2022 till 2024 ? The Frost and Sullivans and Vital Factor Consulting Research papers were published in.Feb or early March 2021. These.institutions must be aware .

invest malaysia , based on Ben Tan articles dated on.20th and 27th April , local.institutions and foreign funds were net.buyers of glove counters while the retailers were net sellers. During that period supermx were.trading.at between rm 5 to rm 6 .

invest malaysia , I do not know you are from IB. I do not care why peoples dump. There are many reasons. Market swing up and down based on many factors .Since are.from.IB and IB tgt prices are averaging at 7 plus. Can you tell me why the big funds are throwing at 4 something ? To buy cheaper later ? Tell me so that I can learn .Share your calculations.

invest malaysia, if public bank.make 7 B.every qtr such that the eps is like supermx 36.7 sen , then with the current PE of 15 , public share price would be 22 not 4 ya. You can see how undervalue supermx is .

invest malaysia , public bank has 7.14 x more shares than Supermx. If both public bank earn 1 B per qtr , supermx EPS is 36.7 s while public bank eps is only 5.2 sen. Public bank need to make 7.1 B in order to be equivalent to supermx 1 B . Can public bank.earn 7 B every.qtr?

Thanks for the reminders on improving our immunity plus self protection against covid 19. Take vitamin C, D and Zinc . You can get your vitamin D by exposing yourself for morning sun at 9.00 to 10.00 am. You can get your zinc by cooking food with Zinger. Kunyit is also good for anti inflammation.

Davidong , agreed with you .

At today closing , the big 4 glove makers PE s are as follows :

Hartalega 11.2
Topglove 6.17
Kossan 5.14
Supermx 3.87

Supermx has the lowest PE among the top 4 despite having the highest
margin and highest cash per share of RM 1.47 among the 4 . Supermx deserved higher PE than 5 .

The 4 billions of cash made in year 2020 is too big to be ignored by investors .
Coupled with balance 3 qtrs total estimated earnings of 3.5 billions plus 4 billions earnings in CY 2020 and another 2.75 billions in 2023 , the total will be 4 + 3.5 + 4 + 2.75 = 14.25 billions .

After giving out 50 % as dividend the balance 7.125 billions is more than enough to add additional capacity plus building new plants in US and UK .

The 7.125 distributed as dividend is equivalent to RM 2.6 . If you buy at 4.60 , effectively you are buying at 4.6 - 2.6 = RM 2.0
Paying RM 2 ringgit for a share of supermx company which effectively do not need to borrow to add 22 billion capacity and add another buidlings is a steal not to mention you may get some Treasury shares as bonus .

The market has overreacted over the ASP drop of 15 to 25 % which will only affect the shipment in 2022 . Supermx already has its capacity booked until the end of the year with contractual ASP s . Hence , the next 3 qtrs earnings are intact barring any unforseen circumstances like plant shutdown or shortage of containers . The new ASP will only impact revenue and earnings in 2022 .

The drop in ASPs in 2022 , 2023 and 2024 are expected based on Frost and Sullivans and Vital Factor Consulting Research .
However the drop will be mitigated by the capacity expansions although not fully .

2022 can still deliver a 4 B earnings with the new capacity of 36 bn and with a drop of 15 to 25 % drop in ASP .

2023 can still deliver earning of 2.75 B with capacity of 48 bn with a drop of 50 % in ASP from the peak . With total share of 2.72 billions , the EPS is still about 100 sen . If you assign a very conservative PE of only 8 , its tgt price is still worth RM 8 despite a 50 % drop of ASP .

Dont forget the extra ordinary earnings in 2020 ,2021 and 2022 which will enable the company to pay fat dividends plus Treasury shares from share buy backs .

Last 2 paragraphs of NOMURA Analyst Report dated 6th May 2021 .

- Management reiterated its capacity growth target of reaching 48 bn pcs pa by end 2022 ( from 26bn pcs currently ) .

- Secondary listing at Singapore exchange has been postphoned . The company may still do some share buyback due to availability of cash in hand and will consider distributing its existing treasury shares of 103 m as stock bonus .



The current cash piles of 4 billions plus another estimated 7 billions estimated earning for the next 7 qtrs will hit a total of 11 billions which is equivalent to RM 4 per share . With 50 % dividend policy , the 5.5 billions will be equivalent to 2 ringgit per share to be distributed to shareholders .

The distribution of Treasury shares is another bonus to shareholders
. The current 103 m Treasury shares is 3.8 % of the total number of shares . With such stock prices , the company can buy more and distribute to shareholders later as another bonus . Indirectly , if company can buy more shares with low prices and then distribute to share holders later , it will benefit the shareholders .

ahbah, Check his articles and you know when.he bought supermx . He lost millions when sold his supermx at almost at rock bottom. Now , without investing in glove stocks , he keep writing negative articles on glove counters. Why ? What agenda he has.? He did the same thing on Jaks. After he had margin calls when prices came down drastically ,he admitted losing 60 millions . When. someone promoted Jaks when it was at half the price, he wrote articles taking bad about Jaks. Of course we did not listen to him and happily making about 50 % and continue holding it until now.

KYY , the smartest ?? He kena.margin calls for JAKS, Dayang and Supermx . Smart ? Did he make money from.glove counters ? Everyone knew he promoted Topglove last years and Supermx early this year giving super high.tgt prices until his last sermon when he sold all supermx at 4 or below. You call that smart ?

glovefinish , You think you are so smart by making assumption that it is long term downtrend? Most of the analysts give target prices from 6 plus to 8 plus. You think you are smarter than the analysts. If you so.smart why dont make yourself.an.analyst.

glovefinsh , dont simply make the above assumptions. who is that someone expect rm 8 ? Who are those those peoples ? dont simply make assumptions. Dont simply make assumption it is long term.down trend with resistance at 5 . Dont think that you are so smart .

glovefinish , what assumption I made make you so unhappy ?

I strongly suspect that they will.buy back the shares and distribute back to all shareholders including themselves since they are the biggest shareholders. Supermx last bought back their shares a few months back when the prices were much higher. There could also be political reasons . Non stop earning increases attract attentions from both US and Malaysian governments. They want to avoid a second donations or windfall tax.Just guessing.

The question.us why.now. They or their relatives coukd have bought them in.march which were much lower

Need to wait for the dust to settle . With the cancellation of SGX listing , the.management do not need to use the cash piles to buy back more shares for the listings. Hopefully, they will.decide to distribute the Treasury shares in.hand as special dividend like what they did before . If the prices go down.further , management seriously consider buying.back and distribute back to the shareholders since the market do not.appreciate companies with big cash .

Unfortunately, these.clarifications came out too late as most retailers dont read the IB s reports. The ASP drop 15 to 25 % was amplified in such a way that investors believe the.next qtr.will be worst. Harta and Kossan were.more subtle in their wordings. There selling.prices will MODERATE or the prices willl.start to revised downwards in coming qtrs. Harta put in extra effort to state that next qtr ASP will remain or slightly better . The managements had visibility of next two qtr ASP actually.because of long lead time of 6 to 7 months. Supermx lack the sensitivity of market reaction.

Johny cash , based on 3 analyst reports which I read , I think the supermx management had clarified with them. The 3 reports from.TA , Nomura and Affin did explain the 15 to 25 % drop was related to spot price but did not affect last qtr result . In fact, the selling price of last qtr actually increased but not enough to mitigate the loss of shipment due to meru plant shutdown. Two reports actually.provided quite detailed ASPs for coming two.qtrs which the prices.had been locked down . Also, their capacities had been.booked till.end of 2021. The next two.to 3 qtrs results should not be.affected by the lower ASP ( US 70 to 80) which.will only.come into effect in.calender year 2020. By then , supermx capacity will be increased to 36 billion from the current 26 billions per year. This additional capacity will.mitigate the drop in.ASP.

The covid 19 pandemic is affecting almost all sectors in terms of production disruption and smooth running of operations. The glove sector is no exception. Topglove, Harta, Supermx and Comfort had all been.affected in their last qtrs. We do not know how it will be in this qtr and next. Meanwhile, enjoy the good dividend payout of about 8 to 15 % from the big cash piles of the top 4 glove makers . This rates are 4 to 7 x better than current bank rates.

Good morning to all supermx genuine investors.

Supermx had repeatedly stressed and proud of its OBM and Own Distibution business model on which 58 % of its gloves sold directly to its customers. This is the key reason why supermx ASP will always be higher than its peers who sell to their OEM customers and independent distributers. These OEM customers and distributers need to mark up 30 to 50 % to make profits. Supermx had cut off many middlemen like agents and dealers last year , decrease the percentage of OEM from 30 % to 2 %. At the same time increase the OBM+Own Distribution from 40 to 58 %. With such changes, Supermx margin increases tremendously and achieved 60 % which is the highest among the top 4 glove makers. This is attributed to the dual incomes of both manufacturing and distribution for 58 % of its business. With such margin , Supermx has the flexibility to out do other suppliers and capture the business by reducing its margin and yet still obtain a fairly good margin . Typically distributors have 25 to 30 % margin. That means this 58.% business model has a total of 45 + 25 = 70 % margin to play with. This explain why Supermx ASP for nitrile are 30 plus percent higher than others. The OBM + Own distribution business model is not a mere slogan but has value and substance. This model will enable supermx to take up future challeges
as price competition intensify in coming months or years

Invest Malaysia. Hold on first before you ask others to buy Harta or Kossan instead of supermx.
Bssed on Nomura and TA Analyst reports, supermx had its capacity booked until end of the year with lock down ASPs. The spot price had dropped 15 to 25 % to US 70 to 80 . New contracts will be negotiated based on this pricing and the shipment.delivery of this new orders will be in 2022. Based on supermx guidance , its yearly capacity will be 36 billions by end of 2021. Lets take an average ASP of 75 and qtrly capacity of 9 billion and 90 % utilization , supermx qtrly earning will be

75 x 9 x 0.9 x 4.15 x 0.4 = 1.008 billions

The earning is lower due to lower margin of 0.4 but it can still hit more than 1 billion.
Harta 2022 ASP may also go down.correspondingly but we have no guidance on its 2022 capacity and ASP. I.prefer not to estimate. You have to take note.that Harta has 3.45 billion shares while Supermx has 2.72 billions shares . The eps may not be too far apart.

Invest malaysia , even Harta ASP is US 82.5 , we expect Harta earning next.qtr to be

82.5 x 9.5 x 4.15 x 0.485 = 1.577 billion

if it can ship 9.5 billion pcs instead of 6.7 billion pcs in Q4 last qtr . That s why I also bought.some Harta as I.told you last week.
Now , what about supermx earnings in next qtr which the ASP of US 95 which had been lock down in contractual agreement ? It will be

95 x 6.5 x 0.9 x 4.15 x 0.56 = 1.268 billion

with a.capacity of 6.5 billion and 90 % utilization barring any unforseen.circumstances like production shutdown and.shortage of container.

Both Harta and.Supermx can.still.deliver more than 1 billion profits.

Invest malaysia , You are quite.smart . At least you know Supermx has higher ASP than Harta and Kossan. I think you must have read the IB reports from TA and Nomura which provided very detailed ASP s . I think we know Harta ASP in last Qtr was US 82.5 while both.TA stated Supermx blended or weighted ASP( 68% nitrile and 32 % latex) was between 80 to 110 . If take an average using primary.school maths, its is 95. Ifv you compare only Nitrile.ASP , it will be.more than 110.since latex glove ASP is about half of Nitrile. There is such a.huge difference , right ? Why Kossan.and Harta sell so much lower? You guess.

KYY is so irresponsible by making this statement. ""As a result , all the glove makers have recently reported reduced profits "".This is a blatant lies. In fact, all the glove makers are making record profits . In fact , Kossan and Careplus made double and triple QOQ profits. Why he stood so low nowadays. Losing too much in stock market ?

On.share buy backs, I saw the Lim family bought back millions and millions of topglove shares on 6th May. Besides , Hartalega also bought back their own shares last week in.millions. These top 2 glove founders and their directors must have big confidence on.the glove futures. I trust their judgements . Otherwise , how can they become top 10 richest men in such a short period of time . They must have good foresights and judgements.

Supermx Chairman Albert Cheok acquired 12,000 supermx shares on 6th May. A sign of confidence with Supermx .

Miao Miao 7 , I tends to agree with you on the effect of US dollar downtrend due to huge QE by Biden . I remembered when Obama did a 2 trillion QE in 2009 and 2010 , our Ringgit strengthen from 3.8 to 3.0 . Last year D TRump did a 4 trillion QE . THis year Biden will do another 6 trillions money printing for pandemic , infrastructre and high tech investments .With oil price on the up trend our Ringgit will rise with respect to US Dollar . Unless Malaysia also print faster than US because of lower tax collections due to covid pandemic , our ringgit may remain at 4 level .

papasmurf. thank you for giving.us your valuable comparison between.Supermx and Hartelega. Your comment with real numbers are very valuable for serious and genuine investors. I agree with you that many genuine investors had left the forum due to reasons as stated.

What drives up palm oil prices?? This is a very fundamental question. The world total cooking oil consumption is almost fixed. The growth per year is only about 1 to 2 percent unlike gloves which grew more than 20 % last year and another 20 to 25 % this year and next year due to the covid pandemic. Post pandemic ,it is expected to grow between 12 to 15 % due to better hygience awareness from both medical and non medical fields. The palm oil uptrend is most likely due to shortages rather than increased demand because peoples dont suddenly use more oils for cooking . I do not think the potential use of palm oil as biodiesel for cars is feasible now because more and more countries are.going for EV. Once the shortage is overcomed, the high inventory will drive down the price. My opinion .

Ben Tan, the Sin Chew article is still in klse screener but it is in Chinese under the title 手套需求料续红火 速柏玛两季盈利赹升。

Tontoro, fully agreed with you . 1B for 6 qtrs barring any unforseen circumstances like plant shutdown due yo covid infections on.its workers.

Tantoro, thank you for posting the analysis by Global Market Research
. The Analysis is quite similar to TA analysis quoted by Sin Chew .
Global Market Research provide more details on the amount of losses of revenues and Profit due to Meru plant shutdown . If there was no such loss , Supermx revenue would have been 2.3 B and its PAT about 1.3 B . The ASPs of US 80 to US 110 per 1000 for the contractual shipments in next qtr is also the same as TA numbers .There is One small difference between the two IBs report . While TA reported contractual ASPs for next two qtrs , Global Market Research reported the remaining 3 qtrs with Contractual Agreements . It looks like Supermx will continue to deliver more than one billion profits per qtr for the next 3 qtrs if there is no unforeseen shipment disruption . By end of this year , supermx will have a capacity of 36 billions compared with current 26 billions , an increase of about 38 % . THis will mitigate the ASP loss of 15 to 25 % in 2022 .

Calvin and Ahbah , Investment timing is very important and be at least medium and long term horizon . Dont buy at the peak . Gloves stocks had came down 50 to 60 % from the peaks in August last year . I did not promote glove counters then because the earnings were still not proven , PE were high . Glove stock prices peak before its ASP peak . There was a 9 months to a year lead of the share prices over its ASPs . Glove stocks had finally PROVEN to deliver fantastic results in the last 3 qtrs after August 2020 while their prices came down 50 % . THeir PE are less than 5 while they will continue to deliver superb results in the next few years with double and tripling of capacities . The palm oil price cannot keep going up forever since it started picking up 2 years ago in 2019 .Likewise , the oil palm counters will peak soon or already peak now before its palm oil ASP peak which may happen in 3 to 6 months time or even earlier . When palm oils ASP came down finally , do the plantation counters have doubling of capacities to compensate for the drop in ASPs ?

BEN Tan , thanks for your reply . TOday I came across an article from Sin Chew which quoted analysis from TA . It stated that the coming qtr ( Q4 April to June ) and subsequent qtr ( Q1 July to Sept) earnings will be better than Q3 . Reasons being ASPs had been "locked in " in earlier contractual agreements . They believed the contractual prices in Q4 will be between US 80 to 110 per 1000 while Q1 prices will be aroung US 80 .While the US 70 -80 ASPs after 15 to 25 % drop from the peak will not be the ASPs of the 2 comming 2 qtrs . It also states that Supermx did not receive any cancellation of orders as they deal direct with the buyers instead of agents . Besides , Supermx also received a lot of repeat orders from the governments . THese orders had 15 to 25 % lower ASPs.
Since Supermx are selling both Nitrile and Latexx gloves , I supposed TA meant the weighted ASPs . In this case , the Nitrile ASP from Supermx is still higher than Harta Nitrile ASP of next two qtrs .

Gloves counter are better than Oil Palm countets lah. In early 2000 , no one know LWC, Kuan ,Stanley and another Lim of Kossan. Today, 2 of them.are top 10 richest in Malaysia. The other 2 in top 20. Palm oil ASP is 30 yrs high and will peak soon. There are only 8 billions peoples on earth. There are.so many types of other oils like coconut oils,soya bean oils, olive oils, peanut oils ,sun flower oils ,pork oils which are competitors to palm oils. There are only 8 billions population on earth with growth rate of less than 1.5 %. How much can people increase the consumption ? Also,as peoplez become more healty conscious, they will take less oil and prefer olive oils. Besides, oil palm companies cannot scale up capacities like gloves. You cant grow land to double the size like gloves capacity.It takes years.Also, it takes at least 5 years for the trees to bear fruits unlike gloves which can be doubled or tripled its capacity in a few years and then immediately can produce gloves. Palm oil ASP will peak soon as there are many alternatives.The profit growths are peanuts compared with glove counters.

myinvestor , thks for posting the article from Sin Chew . This article explain very well . It clears the confusion on the 15 to 25 % drop in ASPs. Based on the article , the next.2 qtrs earnings will not be impacted and remain unchanged. due to the.contractual prices decided a few.months ago. The new pricings will only impact the qtrs after that due to long lead time of about 6 months. The management had finally cleared the confusion that next qtr earning will be impacted immediately . In fact I expect the next 2.qtrs QR to be better than the previous qtr if there is no shipment interruption . The.lock in contractual ASPs plus better shipments should give a much better revenues and profits. Supermx capacity will be increased from.26 billions to 36 billions by end of 2021 based on.last QR . This will compensate for the 15 to 25 % drop in ASP which will impact the qtr at the end of the year .

Both Harta and Supermx shipments in last qtr were affected by plant shutdown due to covid infections on their workers. Harta shipments dropped 30 % from 9.5 billions pcs to 6.7 billions pcs. Supermx did not mention how much shipments were affected. Despite the drastic drop of shipments both Harta and Supermx.still delivered their record profits due to higher ASPs.
Harta's ASP increased by 50 % .Supermx did not specify how much increase and stated only in page 9 of its QR that the average.selling increase in its QOQ section.
Kossan and Careplus did not have lower shipment problem caused by plant shutdown. In fact they have higher shipments than previous qtr. Coupled with higher ASPs, both Kossan and Careplus delivered spectacular results last qtr.