China socialist way by Strict Enforcement : Lockdown the whole city or cities, provive free testing for all , get.resources from all over the country. Time frame, 2 months

US democratic way by Persuasion and rhetoric : No lockdown, plenty of rhetoric , blaming and bullshitting , do not want to get help from others despite facing.shortages of test kids. Citizens need to pay US 1331.00 to get tested. Timeframe : 18 months or more

It is plain stupidity to create another useless " mass gatherings" just to fill.in forms to travel.interstate . How does interstate travel by car or motorbikes cause infections ? To travel from jb to muar or tangkak is about 2 hrs but this is not interstate. However, to travel. 20 mins from.Tampin to ALOR Gajah is interstate. In fact the border between melaka and negeri cut across.Tampin town. Why ask the public to fill up forms? It does not serve any purpose

i3 lurker , Italy is ill prepared for such pandemic. They have insufficient icu s . In such circumstancrs they have to choose the younger ones to.get treatments in icu while.those.very old patients will not be treated.due to reason above. China is getting their respective provinces to help different countries like Iran, Italy, Iraq respectively. If Trump ask for help from China, Xi will. get one of its province , Taiwan to help US . So US will be saved.

SALAM,.you are business savvy

DK 66 and i3 lurker, thanks for confirming my understanding . I still has a lot to learn from both of you on power plant business from.both of you who are considered sifus for power plant business. In summary, Jaks JV on Hai Duong power plant
1. generate income of about rm 450 million from the construction of the plant
2 generate interest income as " unlicensed " bank financing US 1.868 billion
3. generate income by selling electricity

This business is really lucrative

Huahtai98, The price crash has more to do with worldwide meltdown than those who bad mouth jaks DK 66 latest article help me and hopefully the rest understand the PPA better and the power plant business. All the while, I thought the JV needs to come up with the US 1.868 billion capital and after 25 yrs, the vietnamese government got the power plant for free. The vietnamese government actually pay back not only the whole US 1.868.billion by instalment for 25 years but also pay interest income for the whole.construction cost borne by the jv. This capacity payment is on top of energy payment which depends on. how much electricity the plant sell.I hope I get it right.. In a way, the jv not only do the business of selling electricity but also act as a bank financing.the whole project and make some money through.interest income

Huahtai98, the 180 degrees change is too obvious that these peoples see the long term values of jaks when the COD dates are.getting closer and closer. Before the price crash, they bad mouth jaks just to bash.down the prices so that they can buy cheap. Now , they started supporting jaks after they bought jaks..

i3lurker, you should read both articles in order to understand how DK arrived at the earnings of capacity payment for Duong Mong II. The other report is titled Peer Comparison.with Duong Mong ii.
Based on DK formula
Earning = Capacity payment.- loan receivable repayment - interest expense

I did not see DK consider the principal loan repayment as
earning.
On the contrary, he rightly minus the loan repayment in the above formula because the capacity payment.of US 253 million.paid by Vietname government already included loan repayment or principal repayment.

DK66, thanks for sharing your excellent article on Effects of plant Efficiency on profits. You are the best in PPA and power plant business. My salute to you. I suggest serious Jaks investors must read this article to have a better understanding.of future potential profits of Hai Duong power plant

Dear all i3 investors in this.Jaks forum,
please do not put any blame on anybody. No one predicted such crash which was triggered by crude oil crash, corona.virus epidemic or pendemic now plus our political uncertainty. This crash affect every stocks except the glove stocks. My.mfcb was also affected together witj jaks.. i still hold on with my stocks . I still have paper gain on my mfcb but paper loss for.jaks. Like DK 66, I broke my rule and.applied for margin.finance. I see this as great.opportunity to collect good stocks which were badly bashed. To those who lost money , please show your compassion.and.sympathy . Dont behave like some western.media which blamed the Chinese for the Virus outbreak as though.they deserved it. 不要落井下石. thank you

qqq3,, OTB has already told you he knows the laws very well and he will not break them. Why.are.you so.concerned.? Please dont try to intimidate and frighten him.from doing good things which he know is not breaking our country laws. Many serious investors in i3 are looking forward his meeting with Andy . If you cannot contribute in this forum, no one will blame you.but please dont disrupt and create damages.

In stock selection., I still.like the 5 criterias from Coldeye guru. The criteria in.the order of importance are
1. earning growth
2. Good cash flow
3. Good or reasonable PER
4. Good or reasonable ROE
5. Dividend yield
Earning growth is the most important followed by good cash flow and.the low PER. I think.Jaks posses all the top 3 criteria once the power plant is completed and.start COD. Dividend will follow once the positive cash flow can take care of the debts

Aseng , there are many differences between Hengyuan refinery business vs power generation business which is " protected " through the power purchase agreement. Hengyuan.business has many non.controllable variables like crack spreads, oil price fuctuations , inventory gains or lossess, periodic shutdowns and upgrades which cost a lot of money. The potential unfavourabke variables in.power plants business are mitigated through adjustmemt or compensations through PPA stated upfront.Hence , power plants earnings are mote predictable.

Vin 3133, haha, my son also buy a lot of jaks .He is better in.using the excel spreadsheet than.me
。It is to his interest to really know what he is buying. Hope OTB will get the projected earnings and cash flow from Andy tomorriw during their meeting.

My son did a detailed calculation.of earnings and cash flow for every year from.first year to 25th year with the following assumptions for Hai Duong power plant.

Loan is US 1.401 billion
Yearly loan repayments US 131 million
O & M is US 47 million per year
Depreciation is US 74.72 million per year
Duration of loans is 18 years
Interest rate is 6 %
price of coal per kg is US 0.06
Utilization hrs per year is 7238 hrs
Tariff per kwh is US 0.075
Coversion rate is 1 US equal rm 4.15
First 3 years tax free
30 % ownership by Jaks

The earnings ,eps , nett cash generated are as follows for first 3 years .
year 1 year 2 year 3
Earning 239 m 243m 246 m
eps 0.368 0.373 0.379

Nett cash 277 m 277 m 277 m
cash p share 0.43 0.43 0.43

Nett cash is higher than earning because depreciation is just paper loss in P and L..
Comments are welcomed

I added 200k at 1.02 using my bank overdraft. Do not want to.miss such great opportunity .

Elbrutus, I know he is bullshitting when he said the speed of electrical current in power plant is approaching the spped of light and synchronization takes only one second . Your sarcastic analogy of eating taufu is a good one.

elbrutus, eat young tau fu or tau fu hua also take much longer lah. You need to be seated, then order and then wait for.the tau fu to cool.down first and then slowly enjoy them .I think.easily takes 30 mins. Sychronization also needs to prepare for the correct conditions so that sychronization can be done properly. After that ,you need to check and confirm . THE whole PDCA process will definitely takes hrs if not days.

Probability, thanks. On another note , your oil palms bear fruits at the right time. The palm oil prices are looking good

i3lurker, the.speed of electric current going through metal wires like copper is not as fast as the.speed of light. It is.about 1/100 times the speed of light .Electron has mass and relatively more clumsy than photons which do not has mass. Electrons flowing through wires faced a lot of resistance from.the molecules which vibrate when heated. Transmission through fibre optics is approaching speed of light since it uses photon to transmit instead of electrons. The transmission through fibre optics is by total internal reflection. Sychronization in high tension voltages and currents may take hours instead of seconds.

Correction on typo. should be national grid not national greed .

Probability, let me polish up my engineering knowledge in electrical. AC voltage and current are sinusoidal . The sine waves have peaks and troughs with certain wavelength and amplitude. The sinusoidal voltage and current from the new Hai Duong generators must be adjusted or sychronise such that they are in the same phases as the waves from the national greed. hahaha, I am trying my rusty engineering

Probability, thanks for sharing. The.display panels are impressive. I think the advancements in instrumentations and control help to improve utilization and ease of maintenance .These are important elements to improve profitability of power plants with great reductions in potential outages. I supposed.Vinh Tan and Mong Doung also has similar state of the art system which enable the plants to have such a good utilization。It is unfair and unsuitabke to compare malakoff , ytlpower and mudajaya which most likely have older junks when their plants are mostly older .

Investing in.power plant business is like investing in oil palms. It will take 4 to 5 years for the oil palm.trees to bear fruits. During.the period of 4 to 5 years, there is no income but expenses to put fertilizers and clear the weeds. You will also see palm oil prices swing.up and down, drought, flood or sunshine. You dont sell your plantatiion half way whenever you see the market swings or political issues. This is the type of perseverance and mentality you need for long term investment .One thing you know for sure when you see the trees grow taller and start to flower , money and wealth.is coming .Not many can wait so long and has the patience . Can you see Hai Doung.power plant start to flower??

The two newcomers to the Forbes 50 richest men in Malaysia trigger my thoughts on long term investments. The two gentlememt are major shareholders and founders of Vitrox and MI. Their returns are at least.a few hundred time or thousand time. They were engineers 20 years ago and today they are self made billionaires. In stock market, we have the day traders,short term investers, medium term investors and long term investors. Only long term investors can reap a few X to 50X returns.

Public invest projected 250million earning per year from Don Sahong power plant

Thanks probability. I also dont remember anyone said that the completion date of Jaks power.plant is Dec 2019. Where did public invest got such information. ? Now it used such non.existent information to downgrade Jaks 2020 earning by 41% but upgrade the tgt price from 1.00 to 1.13. I really cant comprehend their.logics

As I said earlier, the most important things are Analyst briefing on future earnings of Hai Duong power plant and second the power plant is completed in time. Once these two events are accomplished, the price will follow. We buy Jaks because of great earning potentials of this power plant.

James video on various stocks are in mandarin

I listened to James video. His inputs comes mainly from.public invest,,the financial report and i3 forum. I agreed with most of his analysis.except his tgt price of 1.70 within 2 years. He did mentioned that he recommended buy for Jaks last year and.Jaks earnings in future will be good because of Hai Duong power plant. He do not know the estimated earning but expected it to be good. His estimated earning from the balanced unbilled revenue of 338 million.is 20 % from the construction project
which is lower than.the actual 22.9 %
for the whole of 2019. My estimate is 25 % or 84 million while his is 67 million. This earning will be reflected in the coming Q1 and Q2.financial . His view is similar to mine that 2020 earnings is expected to be good with the first half from the project while the second half will be from selling electricity.

Vin 3133, I smelled the big money $$ because I trust the information from DK.66 , OTB.and Probability. These information give me the confidence .

Elbrutus and Vin 3133. As for reason number 3,
its impact is not that much because both the earning of both Resouce and Property division.is expected to contribute about 10 % of total earning only. As long as Jaks property.division stop losing money, the effect of.reason.3 is minimal. A PE of 10 should be a more.reasonable valuation once reasons 1 and 2 are cleared. This is my opinion.

The main reasons why mfcb has almost double the PE ratios than JAKS.
1.The IBs or analysts covering jaks do not consider its power plant future earnings and set a very low tgt price .
2. The mfcb power plant already.completed and already selling electricity for the.last 5 months including testing
3. MFCB other businesses like Resource and property divisions were making money while Jaks were.losing money
4. MFCB.cash flow is better and already announve dividend of 6 sen . Public invest projected 30 sen.annually.
Among the 4 reasons above , the first one is the most important. Jaks management must provide earning guidance for its power plant . The second reason will go away once the power plant is completed and start selling elevtricity. The third will be resolved in the next few months I supposed. The fourth depends on the management decision .

Jaks Hai Duong power plant is 93 % completed in Q4 2019 is a fact. Today March 2020, the power plant could be 95 to 97% completed. The 338 million balance project revenue as stated by public invest is also a fact. This revenue will generate about.25% profit or rm 84 million in 2020 is also a fact. Vietnam is facing serious shortage and hungry for electricity is also a fact. Jaks is expected to start selling electricity with IRR of 12 % in mid 2020.
Jaks had akso written of 40 millions of losses through impairment. Even with.such big.amount written.off , Jaks still made 108 million or 17 sen.eps in 2019. The current.PE.is only 7.7.

probability, thanks for sharing the re assuring news. If both unit one and two can start COD from beginning of July 2020, Jaks can have half a.year of 2020 selling electricity.Coupled with profit from.the balancr unbilled.rm 338 million, total profit for 2020 may hit 180 million which was the projected numbets from otb.

For MFCB, Maybank used SOTP method which valued Don Sahong using.DCF of 25years future earnings , valued Resource.business at PER of 12 and lastly value its property division at book value . In contrast, public invest only value the property business at.book value with discount since they do not expect the property division to make any profit in 2020. The power plant was 93
% completed. Furthermore, there is still another rm 338 million billion billings which is.expected to make 25% or 84 million in 2020. Even if the power plant start COD in.Oct , there are still millions to be made in the last.qtr of 2020. mfcb.made 29.7 millions for selling only 85MV for one qtr. The same.public invest reported this. Based on very conservative estimate, another 50 millions earning from selling.electriciy can be added. These potential earning are completely ignored.

Based on public invest report , they have change
their valuation method from SOTP to RNAV. The.latest NAV or nett asset value is 1.52 in the latest Q4 financial report. . They specifically stated that their tgt price of 1.13 is pegged at 35 % discount . Obviously, public invest did not take into consideration the future earning of the power plant. In contrast, mfcb NAV is 3.78 but the tgt prices set by public invest and maybank are 6.29 and 6.10 respectively. How can such a big potential.income earner.be omitted in their Jaks valuation??

With the latest news that Muhyideen appointed as PM, political uncertainty is put to rest now.

Probability, yes. I knew that China is seeing less and less new infections. I think China has successfully.contain this epidemic . The death and the number infected from.HINI in 2009 was much worst .Also the influeza epidemic killed much more peoples in the US although it was not publicised as much by the media. I bet with my money yesterday that the worst will be over . Capitalised with the mega sales.

The markets were depressed due to effects of trade wars, corana.virus , political stability . All these problems will be over just like the Asian.financial crisis in1998, Sars outbreak in 2003, financial meltdown in US in 2008 , financial crisis in 2011 in europe . These crisis offered great opportunities to buy low . Springs will always come after winters.

Vin3133, OTB and DK 66 attending will be enough to pose questions and get the appropriate informations and later shared with the i3 investors. Andy has also disclosed that the power plant is 93% completed and the power plant will continue to deliver positively in 2020. What we need from.the horse mouth is the projection of the earning from the power plant

gemfinder, public invest still.did not consider the future earning of Hai.Duong power plant like what they did for mfcb. If they did , the tgt price will be much higher.

Today ,added 400k units at an average price of 1.28. Q4 result.is.good . Impairment lost is just paper lost. Good Free.Cash.Flow . Power plant is 93%. completed. The Hai Duong power plant will contribute earnings positively in 2020.

DK 66, My salute to you for your perseverance.and convictions. Seeing your investment drop 70 % is not easy and not for the faint hearted. I went through the same.for dayang last year seeing.my.investment drop 35 %. You need a lot of conviction ,perseverance ,patience to pull through the.tough periods.

leapkcfy, yes. I mean the discounted rate in DCF .thks .

Huahtai I mean the highest rate of 12 %. I think DK started with 6 %, 8 %, 10, % and then 12%. Normally, for earnings from public listed company, a rate of 10 % is used. As a general rule, the.more certain and predictabke the future earning ,the.lower the rates. For future earnings of a start up company , the rates.used could be much higher like 20%.When you use a higher rates, the value of the business will be lower. I think power plant earning should be more certain, 10 % rate is reasonable.

Based on Maybank s report, the analyst value.and set the.tgt price of mfcb based on sum of parts methods.They are.3 parts in mfcb business. They use DCF for Don.Sahong power plant, PER of 12 for resource division and book value for property division. In my opinion, this is the right thing to do. As for.Jaks ,we can use similar methods which is DCF.for Hai Duong and book value for property. DK had used DCF in one of his article with various rates. I remembered even at the.highest rate of 12%, the 30% Hai Duong power plant is still worth rm 2.90. Jaks book.value still worth some money . We just wait and see how public invest and Affin.value Jaks after the Q4 result is out.

Davidleong, DK66 is expert for Jaks. Please read his numerous articles in i3. There are a lot of earning estimation informations in his articles

Jaack. Thanks for sharing too.

Public invest maintain tgt price at 6.29