Futures crude price drop is good for AAX

Crude oil drop good for AAX. 28 sen TP is backside street talk. Buy on weakness.

Q2 result is about the past - March to June. Today is August. We have 1 more month to go for Q3. Today , fundamentally, it is better than Q2. If you dont want to miss the boat, buy on weakness.

People are afraid to enter because 2nd quarter is worst of all 4 quarters. And some other people push the price down due to perception on call warrant

Royce Chan - (1) seller is outnumbered and it is small. (2) when price was dropping and volume is thin, looking forward , there is hope, time to buy a bit so that other is not excited to sell or to pish the price.

You missed that boat NewInvestor17..... hahaha the biggest shareholder of AAX sold non stop and i caught them at 20 sen.

... it just take 10,000 lots to push to push the price by 1 sen.....

:)) . Positive thinking.

Some good news?

http://m.utusan.com.my/bisnes/ekonomi/dnex-tumpu-segmen-tenaga-1.514537

Owner = issuer

Call warrant exercise price is 35.5 sen, expiry 28 August 2017. Owner of the call warrant selling the share.

Starting to initialize second trance of 500K to purchase. Aggregate down.

It is time for me to re-purchase again.

Prediction is obviously not accurate....it only try to foresee what is tge actual result , u have inputs, and inputs need to be updated. If the inputs are correct 100% , then u will accuse insider trading.

Current AAX P/E - 25 with 4 Quarters EPS 1.48 sen.

Assuming Q2, AAX got PBT around RM 76 million, then EPS is around 1.7 sen.

At current P/E - 25, then price of AAX should be around 42.5 sen.

.......................................

Let us go again with other figure, assuming Q2, AAX just breakeven. No profit, then EPS is maintained 1.48.

At current P/E - 25 , then price of AAX should be around 37 sen.

Air Asia price will remain strong unless something bad happen.

AAX, I foresee improvement of earnings as the quarter 2 move to quarter 3 and move to quarter 4.

To understand why I say so, we look at historical - AAX, deteriorates from Q1 2016 towards Q4 2016 because RM depreciation and Saudi led cartel intervention in Oil Market.

In Q2 2017, MYR actually appreciate against USD despite Fed increases interest rates in the US two times, and we see the oversupply situation keep on going despite Saudi and OPEC cutting supply. Thus, price per barrel becomes range bound.

Yes you are right , Royce Chan.

Just to add, my prediction of Profit BEFORE tax for AAX according to some statistical analysis is here in this article - around RM 76 million.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/radziarticles/125138.jsp

Please, any decision to invest is yours.

Note that in this article, https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/radziarticles/124835.jsp , I estimate the revenue of 2Q 2017 to be RM 1.09 billion.

However, using operating stats, I estimate - RM 1.004 billion. Addendum - operating stats is not correct - RPK (as revenue passenger kilometres does not have revenue element multiplied in it. Thus, RM 1.004 billion is not right.

So, last night, I did another estimate. In Q1 2017, the passenger is 1.4 million and you get scheduled flight revenue as RM 762 million. Assuming average fare per passenger is the same RM 544 , you get scheduled flight revenue as 756 million for1.39 million passenger in Q2.

Now, for other revenue - charter flight, freight cargo, ancillary revenue, operating lease income, and others - i used Q2 2016 data, assuming all the remain constant in the cyclic season, adding up everything, We get total revenue as RM 1.094 billion.

This RM 1.094 billion is the same with what is predicted in my article here using time series forecasting method.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/radziarticles/124835.jsp

Remember here we talk only about revenue, and not about cost. This airline may make losses if the cost is higher. But if the cost reduces as my prediction, profit BEFORE TAX RM 119 million is not impossible.

In my writing , i use the word "If" multiple of times. Please be sensible. I don't know what happen within that company - even though I predicted the cost will reduce compared to Q1, the cost may increase. So, trade with caution. Just a note - I am still holding AAX shares and a big number of them.

I will do one more cross reference check on revenue. There is some chance revenue is higher that RM 1.004 billion. If that is so, profit more than 100 is not inpossible.

Royce Chan : 4Q PE would be about the same with Q1. I think the price would be range bound, around 40 sen.

Anyway, he is quite right about other costs - I have been pondering for a while about that. Let me just give some of my assumptions here , and still trying to find a method. You can debate my content below but no bad words, like CB, KNN and whatever.

----------------------------------------------

Other cost - leasing, maintenance, operating lease, and operating expenses, user charges moves stochastic manner, cant trend with good regression coefficient and confidence level.

REVENUE ESTIMATE - RM 1.004 billion

OPERATING COST ESTIMATES -

Staff Cost = 105 million.
Depreciation = 30 million.
Fuel Expenses = 255 million (Fuel index is about the same as Q2-2016, Q22016 fuel cost = 225 million).
Maintenance = 164 million. (estimate down by 10 mill due to better forex)
User charges = 124 million.
Lease = 219 million. (estimate down by 24 mill due to better forex)
Other = 70 million.

------------------------
Operating profit = 37 million.
-----------------------

Finance charge

Charge = 10 million.

---------------------------------

Net Operating Profit = 27 million.

--------------------------------------------


Forex (Gain) = 12 million.

Share result from joint venture = -

----------------------------------------------
Profit Before Tax = 39 million.

............................

Note : This is just an estimate. Please do your own analysis before any buy decision.

NewInvestor17 : Unlike Ablegroup and IWC, AAX is a profit making company. AAX revenue keep on increasing, Y.O.Y. NewInvestor17: You have to admit, that you made profit in AAX in Q1-2017. While according to your statement in i3, you should have made losses in AbleGroup and IWC.

In 2016, when 95% of IB put a very low target price of AAX around 20 sen, I made my big money.

Today, now - 85% of IB put higher target price for AAX. Do I make more money than in 2016. Answer - definitive, no.

I told you, something funny is brewing inside IB.

That is old story. Havent I told you, if you follow what investment bank wrote, you will sekl your house and live in the street. That link is not even about obe hour talk. You are a sad hypocrite,

NI17: can you give me the link of your konon-konon talk ? I feel great to read it. If you cant give it, then I assume you are a hypocrite.

NewInvestor17 : Have you cut loss at Ablegroup ? You said you want to sell at TP 25 sen. But now the price is 13.5 sen. So , how now brown cow ?

Read my valuation in Ablegroup here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/radziarticles/125729.jsp

Unfortunately, your names appear a number of times there.

Thank you average_abu... To all the best people in the world thank you, thank you and thank you. You guys are several levels higher than NewInvestor17. You are the best !!!! I hope many more will stand up against NewInvestor17 so that he knows that he is public enemy number 1.

Great opinion hooi72.. AirAsia is at a different level than AAX. You dont need to say anything, price will shoot up. AAX, see you at Q3.

NewInvestor17 : You are looking at the mirror to see your ownself.

For those who are new here and does not know NewInvestor17, this is an article that I have written. Unfortunately, the culprit is NewInvestor17.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/radziarticles/125729.jsp

Guys,

Thank you very much for fighting for me and a cvilised forum from the great world to see. You are the best in the world, I have ever seen. Congratulation.

If you care to notice, too much infighting had in the past blackout AAX from being highlighted in the "latest discussion" of i3 home page.

I tried to change that situation by posting several educated articles so that AAX is back on the mainstream. My effort had been successful - AAX forum is back in the highlight.

Those articles is a free effort, and increases i3 readership, circulation among investors.

There is a threat of crazy infighting from NewInvestor17 which may make AAX forum to be taken out from highlight. There are several reasons why some people want to do this:-

(1) They are agent to IB. Call warrant is going to expire in August. So, they want the price to go down.
(2) They know call warrant expiry that may signal price going down, so they use that fact to push the price down to collect AAX share at a much lower price.
(3) They are simply idiot. They know the word Bastard, KNNCCB, CB, FXXX, STUXXX, KNN, MaCB and they use it to great extent in order to push the price down.
(4) They want lower price to accumulate in order to sell later.


We know the fact that there is high probability AAX would be champ in Q3. So, all these funny characters may want is to kill AAX price now in order to buy at cheaper price and sell in Q3. Sometimes it do help me to buy more at lower price. But I cant help when other forumers sold at a lost (like Avangelice) because of no holding power or just lost confidence.


If you hate to read foul language by NewInvestor17, you may send an email to i3 Admin so that he is banned from i3. NewInvestor17 used foul language not only in AAX forum but also in many other forum.

It degrades people mentality.

Thanks again to all the best people in the world that I have read in this forum. You are simply the best !

iris, netx, able, iwc, aax , what else you invest in ?

i. wonder why in the world some high ranking talk to bloomberg kind of people want to buy 4 sen per share stock like NetX , Iris, Able and IWC. Those 4 counters are lost making counters. No class. Low standing - no brainer.

If u listen to fund managers , you will lose your house and sleep in the street especially if you go for contra and margin with those counters. The reason - fund nanager has invest their wife money into the stock before they invest using their company money, then only they advertise their target price.

I will keep quiet after this, in 3-6 months time, AAX will show its true colour without me saying a word.

This is quite an interesting article.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/129158.jsp

Benjamin can not tahan for Airbus 330Neo to come, so he goes to the lease market. Why need fast growth ? Because the route from Osaka to Hawaii generates RM 5,000 per seat return ticket. Dont you see money there ? Fresh money, fresh route, fresh profit... The catch there is Q3....and Q3 and Q3. I fit into my 6-12 months investment period.

So , see you at Q3. I dont have much time to write. But I will be happy for "my follower" if there is any who make money in Q3 and Q4 this year for AAX. It is going to be great quarters.

For those invested in Frontkn, and bought at around 31 sen, take note, after the price goes up to 40 sen, I have sold all my shares. You may choose to take profit too.

HengYuan - dont follow me. I am still holding. LOLZ.

Everyone, please sell your AAX stock according to the advice of NewInvestor17. That will make him satisfied. If you are doubtful about this counter, just sell and dont come back. Sell !

the people who are worried are those on margin trading. I am not. In fact, I am buying. How much money did you make in IWCity and Ablegroup NewInvestor17 ? And how much did the Investment Bank pays you to push the price down ?

Avangelice, if you are bitter dont come and look at this counter. It will affect your and everyone in this forum mental health. It need compelling reason to sell this counter and if there is any, it should have been done right after the result was announced last few months. That one single factor would have trigerred a selling decision. Now, the price is already low. The result , if it comes out at 10million profit after tax, would stabilise the share for Q3 price rally.

newinvestor17 : Did Ablegroup touched your TP 25 sen ? No, right. AAX touched 55 sen, and it is easy to move there ahain if the result is good. When Q3 result is good, dont re-purchase AAX.

Virgin - if I am to answer that, it depends on how long you intend to hold this stock. By November 2017, you will be jumping up like crazy.

Congratulation on buying Hengyuan. After Icon8888 wrote an article on HengYuan, I did buy some lots. I also read Mr. Koon Yew Yin also bought HengYuan.

My trading idea is to long for companies that I think would have its profit increased because of low oil price per barrel. It makes sense. We have abundance of oil around the world. The crude oil price will eventually drop more. Only World War 3 can reverse my prediction.

There is some room upwards, but it depends on profit in the next quarter. Current TP range is within the 0.41-0.45 is the range of target price. Frankly, Frontkn is a great managed company, the topline and bottomline trend keep on improving year after year. I reckon they will show increased profit in the coming next four quarters, as to follow the trend and to follow their increased of stake in foreign company. Just pray for it to continue the good show.

By the way NewInvestor17 : It is rather too late for you to enter Frontkn at 40 sen. P/E already high. If you want to enter , do it at your own risk.

New_Investor17 :

You missed another counter that I promoted before Frontkn... Already 30% goes up. Bye bye bye.

I think tony want the share price to go down so that he can accumulate the shares before pushing them up in Q3. So, how much did Tony pays you for this work ?

newinvestor17 : What happenend to your iwcity and ablegroup ? LOLZ.

After BM gone, this stock will go back around 80 sen.

In Q2, buy on weakness.

newinvestor17,

P/S : How much money did you make in iwcity and ablegroup ?

NewInvestor17,

You are targetting me and again you apply harrassmemt and bullying repetitively. I need to remind you again about this rule in i3

I3investor does not tolerate bullying or harassment. We allow users to speak freely on matters and people of public interest, but take action on all reports of abusive behavior directed at private individuals. Repeatedly targeting other users with offensive comments or messages is a form of harassment.

Hello Kinkudes_hc , I think you are right there... Q2 is 50 : 50 but Q3 is 90 : 10 (90% probability of moving up). I will buy in Q2 if price drop, looking for return in Q3-Q4.

Hawaiian load factor if consistently more than 80% is a boon for Q3 because average fare per seat from Osaka to Honolulu is between RM 1000 to RM 2000.

I am all smiling . Thank you very much admin. :)))

On Behalf of i3 , I attached this warning to NewInvestor17.

Your post is an element of "Bullying and Harrassment". Perhaps , you want to be kicked out of i3 ?

Unless you want your post to be reported to the i3 administration.

I3investor Community Standards

I3investor allows investors around the world to publish their own stories, ideas, tips and comments. The conversation that happens on I3investor - and the opinions expressed here - mirror the diversity of the people using I3investor.

To balance the needs and interests of a various investors, I3investor protects comments and posts that meet the community standards outlined on this page.

Please review these standards. They will help you understand what type of comments and posts are acceptable, and what type of content may be reported and removed.

Violence and Threats

Safety is our top priority. You may not credibly threaten to harm others, or organize acts of real-world violence. We remove content and may escalate to law enforcement when we perceive a genuine risk of physical harm, or a direct threat to public safety. We also prohibit promoting, planning or celebrating any of your actions if they have, or could, result in financial harm to others, including theft and vandalism.

Self-Harm

I3investor takes threats of self-harm very seriously. We remove any promotion or encouragement of self-mutilation, eating disorders, hard drug abuse or suicide.

Bullying and Harassment

I3investor does not tolerate bullying or harassment. We allow users to speak freely on matters and people of public interest, but take action on all reports of abusive behavior directed at private individuals. Repeatedly targeting other users with offensive comments or messages is a form of harassment.

Hate Speech

I3investor does not permit hate speech. While we encourage you to challenge ideas, institutions, events, and practices, it is a serious violation to attack a person based on their race, ethnicity, national origin, religion, sex, gender, sexual orientation, disability or medical condition.

Graphic Content

People use I3investor to share thoughts and ideas. We understand that graphic imagery is a possible component for sharing, but must balance the needs of a diverse community. Sharing any graphic content for sadistic pleasure is prohibited.

Nudity and Pornography

I3investor has a strict policy against the sharing of pornographic content. At the same time, we aspire to respect people's right to share content of personal importance, subject to acceptance by the portal users and administrators.

Identity and Privacy

On I3investor people can create multiple identities, each having its own profile and history. The identity of each person creates accountability and builds trust and safety for everyone. Claiming to be another person, or falsely representing an organization undermines community and violates I3investor's terms. Additionally, you may not publish another user's personal information.

Intellectual Property

Before sharing content on I3investor, please be sure you have the right to do so. We ask that you respect copyrights, trademarks, and other legal rights.
Phishing, Spam and Commercial Activities

We take the safety of our members seriously and work to prevent attempts to compromise their privacy or security. We also ask that you respect our members by not contacting them for commercial purposes without their consent.

External Commercial Activities

By participating in forum and blog posts in I3investor, we asked that you protect the commercial value of I3investor, and not engage in any promotion or external commercial activities without prior approval from I3investor. This include, but not limited to, the following activities:

offering for sale of any external products or services
transmit any unsolicited or unauthorised advertising or sponsorship
conducting games or contests that require any type of entry fee
soliciting users to join an external forum, group or website
displaying a sponsorship banner of any kind, including those that are generated by banner or link exchange services
displaying banners for services that provide cash or cash-equivalent prizes to users in exchange for hyperlinks to their web sites