strong support at 0.73, liuckily i still hold 2 million shares

That 0.75 big block. Today volume also big. Can break 0.75 ? Take some profit first.

when syndicate Nekosan says tomorrow will break 0.70 , tomorrow you all sell... when Nekosan says sell, you all buy. You know aikido, use the weight of stronger person to beat tgat person

Diam diam collect low price.

idwa = idea

Pang72 , you should not argue with nekosan. Neko in japanese means cat. And san means Mr. If you see a nama like nekosan or sometimes cindycat, then imagine this - Cindycat = Sindicat = Syndicate. Got the idwa now , Pang72 ?

Small investors need to have self control. Play contra, wrong step you are dead. The big players will try to shake out weak heart so that they can accumulate at lower price.

Once shake out is done, price will move up gradually. Hibiscus profit trend does not follow oil price recovery but follow acquisition activities. Once acquisition, complete, profit will increase. Buy now , sell at acquisition complete news ? But you need to hold for medium term.

Just got to see this late at night, and the uptrend of the share price is expected. Any good counters with good result and with good acquisition proposition, when the price is pressed down, was an opportunity to buy. Hibiscus is a turnaround counter. Last year, I condemn Hibiscus, but after taking a look again at its performance in 2016 and 2017, I think the result is great. Coupled with proposition of an acquisition which certainly push the profit upwards (if acquisition is completed), this is quite a good medium term stock. As much as all the good things I have said, it depends whether the CEO can deliver the acquisition or not. I dont know. So, when I buy this shares, I took calculated risk based on the completion of Anusuria deal. It has big probability that the Sabah Shell deal will be executed in due time. We hope so.

https://m.facebook.com/BIMBSecurities/posts/900347296743118

Bank Islam revise Hibiscus upwards by 84%. Public Bank + Bank Islam. Syariah compliant - apa mahu lagi ?

Public Bank coverage looks good. Through North Sabah acqusition, at share price 45 sen, they estimate a P/E ratio of 2.5 next year. A fair P/E at P/E = 15 would translate that to share price of RM2.70 per share. If institutional fund buy this, lets see how it moves.

Initially, I did not realised that Petronas has agreed for Hibiscus to take over Shell oil rigs in Sabah. But the news is here

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/30/petronas-okays-hibiscus-purchase-of-shell-stake-in-sabah-venture/

So, it is up to Hibiscus to come up with money to acquire that business which can be sourced from debt (if internal cash is not enough) or equity (if Hibiscus willing to let go some percentage of share to other party) or internal cash.

It stated in that news that Hibiscus will take over 50% of 62 million barrel oil , with extraction rate of 16,000 barrels per day. How will this impact Hibiscus annual profit ?

Hibuscus share is 50% of the 16,000 barrels per day = 8,000 barrels a day.

Number of barrel per year = 8,000 x 365 = roughly around 28 million barrel.

Assuming 20% downtime a year , then you get around 20 million barrel a year.

Opex ( Operational expenditure) is around USD 20 per barrel.

At price USD 50 per barrel, operating profit is USD 30 per barrel.

So operating profit from this acquisition = 30 x 20 million x 4 (exchange rate USD/MYR) = RM 2.4 billion a year.

Ar price USD 40 per barrel, operating profit is USD 20 per barrel.

So, operating profit from this acquasition = 20 x 20 x 4 = RM 1.6 billion a year.

Of that figure, just to be safe, we take the RM 1.6 billion a year operating profit.

Let us assume debt = USD 100 million = RM 400 million. Assume 10% interest rate, the interest cost is around RM 50 million a year.

Depreciation, let assume 10% a year, then depreciation cost = RM 50 million.

Gross profit = RM 1.5 billion.

Tax 30% (for easy calculation = RM 450 million.

Net profit is estimated at RM 1 billion.

Price RM 1 is very much achievable.

I think, the deal will be signed soon. So, up to you to decide to buy or to sell.

i use some chicken feed money to buy small amount of hibiscus...at a loss. My investment on AAX still intact. Will add more when time is right.

Yesterday volume was 400 million. Assuming that, 80% of yesterday volume was contra players, that represents 320 million.

Today volume till lunch is 386 million.

Which means to say that , by today volume almost all of yesterday contra players have sold.

So, the price will depends on the decision of contra players today. If you sell now at the provocation of the shark, you will sell at a loss.

If you dont sell, you have another 3 days to decide your fate bearing in mind shark are trying to play you off so maybe bigger loss. If you can keep it, and all other contra player do the same, you may make profit.

Fundamentally, this counter is a turnaround counter. In 2014 & 2015 recorded 4 quarters of loss.

2016 recorded 3 quarters of profits and at 2017 recorded 4 quarters of profit. Oil price futures hovering around USD 43 per barrel to USD 49 per barrel in the last quarter and they make quite a decent profit.

OPEC has production cut agreement till March 2018. Due to that there is some uncertainties to the trend, I was predicting oil price moves downward but it moves upwards because of huricane IRMA and OPEC. If you are into the game, your timeline is till March 2018. After that, no guarantee of oil move upwards anymore.

So, why not make this game enjoyable ? Till November 2017.

Some people trying to create fear because they put big block at seller price. I bet they will buy later when price drop.

Common sense - EPS is 7 sen. At PE = 14, price is around 98 sen. There is still room to go up because PE is still low.

let the weak heart sell. Stock market is liberal, anyone can buy and sell.

yes, I feel very excited.... This is crazy but so nice.

If IWC, I dont dare to enter... because of my analysis of Hibiscus result, I would enter if people dump.

wahh .... roller coaster, join PakTua at 0.625

See hibiscus , like piranha eating ..... lucky bought some this morning.

Current bullishness on Oil and Gas counter. Typhoon Irma disrupted supply last few weeks but supply resumes upwards last week. Of all, only Hibiscus looks promising PB put target price RM 1.06. To my surprise, current P/E only around 9 , so that is quite a safe counter if you want to go in.

AAX takes time. I am banking on Q3 good result, Again, company decision on bulldozing too low price per passenger is not favourable to me.

Actually, it is the interest of Trump to let USD drop, so he will continuously shout at North Korea , so that North Korea fires mores missiles over Japan. When money managers see this , they will quickly divest USD and buy other currencies including MYR. Finally, MYR re-hit 4.187 , Looking forward to 4.00.

jxbob - long term investor sees this simple. Show the profit above RM 100 million, then we will support. Without profit, we will find buy only on weakness.

Long term holder - congratulation . For those bought at 0.37 per share - heavier congratulations !!!!! Hahahahahaha ... let joy be us.

I will not promote AAX as not to give any hint to NewInvestor17. Hahahahaha.....Since your nemesis Radzi had been keeping quiet... now you are aiming your gun towards a new nemesis - Tony Fernandes , ya NewInvestor17 ? Yennadei tambi , your mouth speaks your heart.

NewInvestor17 is confident with "Fund Managers" recommendation. He had underestimated "major shareholders" recommendation. Hihihihihihi ......

Hahahahaha.....NewInvestor17 ~ you got it with TF promotion of AAX all.

AAX debt is around USD 180. So, at RM 0.20 appreciation of MYR, the gain would be around RM 40 million.

Royce Chan ~ The speed USD depreciate is due to North Korea - US stand-off. Fund manager got cold feet with war potential and sell off dollar position as risk aversion policy.

How long will this last ? As long as there are fresh news , this would stay. BTW, Trump wants USD to depreciate especially against RMB as its economics strategy of generating jobs growth. He would be happy to get it without any war. But, he may start a war if he thinks this could make US great again. Anyway, this news will counter any 1MDB negative news.

By Q4, many people expects it to be around 4.00. I hope it goes down to around 3.5.

Operation growth that would not affect the competitor to the expense of killing it is not a good idea, dont you think so ? It will just bleed the companies involved in the competition.

split fubd into AA and AAX . AA would move first, Its PE ratio shows that it is undervalue. AAX needs to get the result in Q3. I predict it would be good. Byt to get thins move PAT around RM 150 is needed. If they push ticket orice down , how xan it ve achieved. Make hay when the sun shibe. Once a plane go down afain, even average 300 would fill obly 70% capacity. So dont be shy tobrake chsnces when it is time to take chances.

Macro economic is good for Airasia, AAX .... for AAX, they need to improve pricing strategy. They can employ McKinsey or Boston Consulting Group to do the high level structural job and then they need to detail in for operation. Over the years and quarters, abundance of data collected. They need to be incrementally wiser with incremental amount if data. If they nail it well, MAS , SIA , Malindo CEO will go crazy.

Let hope it maintain improvibg till 30th September bexause that is the date which the exchange rate raken into account. If yiu have holding power , should purchase bit by bit during price weakness.

When some people said to you "Dont try getting smart ?".

You hearts say, why should I be managed by a person who is no smarter than me. LOL.

Tatower, i wish you luck

Jolee375 : The problem of Qantas is that they compete against highly subsidized Middle East airline. How much ticket price Qantas would throw away would be matched by money from the Royal family to Emirates , Etihad or others.

Why Etihad or Emirates airlines are very important to their government ? It is the economy. Look at Saudi Arabia, Mecca, 24 millions people visits Mecca during one month of Hajj. The visitors bought souveniors , fill up the hotels and restaurant and increase economic activity in Mekah.

So, the other countries just copycat the same idea of Mekah. Dubai wants many people to visit its city and build the economy over there, so they made strategy so that Emirates that could carry as many people cheaply to Dubai.

So, is Qatar, and other Middle East countries.

Qantas feels suffocated because they cant fight against the richness of UAE Sultans and Emirs. They kicking back the floor to reach to the surface to breath for air by moving to Singapore.

NewInvestor17, by the way your mathematical equation is wrong . It is not 2+1 = 3 or 1+2 = 3.

In fact it is either 7-4 = 3 , and 8-4 = 4 and 7-3 = 4.

No wonder you cant get Ben email address if this simple Mathematic syntax of Profit you wrote wrongly.

Yenna dei NewInvestor17 , mana itu email Benjamin ? ... gua sudah kasi lu email addres gua, lu hantar email Ben saja lah pada gua , deiii tambii .........yenne purengge.

I would be stupid if I tell the details of how the solution of (1A) would look over here because the dumb dumb dumb MAS and SIA strategy officers could just search on the internet and copy the details of what I could give and put the "Stamp" on it as though it is theirs.

Abstractly, you see my previous message of what could be done. The rest is in my brain. It would be explosive if they apply this technique and CEO of MAS, Malindo and SIA would become crazy.

Thank you in advance dearie NewInvestor17 for sending me Ben email address.

Anyone got Ben email address , can send it to radziinvestor@gmail.com

Thank you.

If the CEO choose Option (1A) - it means optimal market share - i.e. optimum passenger load factor that could give the highest revenue ( that is not necessarily 100% load factor , 75% load factor that corresponds to optimal price would do because that creates the highest revenue).

Forget about killing other competitors by reducing ticket price because competitors will not be killed . Long standing backed-up competitors will restructure and coming out stronger after restructuring such as MAS. My thought is always work together with competitors to achieve sustainable business. And AAX chief objective is not killing competitors but opening new market horizon so that - "Everyone Can Fly".

For strategy number (1) - Two option - (1A) increase revenue or (2A) reduce cost

Vtep, can you give me the CEO email address ? I will convince him otherwise :))) .

The chief objective is not market share but sustainability. No point having extremely high market share but low profit and low sustainability.

When keyword is market share, it needs an adjective in front of it. - "Optimal Market Share".

Remember AAX needs to service RM 100 million of debt within one year. It can do that via three strategies, (1) Pay the loan from organic growth (within the company) of profit, (2) take new loan and extend payment period, (3) Get the public to buy right issue.

Sustainable growth policy requires strategies number (1).

From the Advisor to the CEO.

Crude oil price - even though typhoon harvey shutdown oil refineries in the USA, North Korea sending missiles over Japan, ..... Crude Oil Price keep going down . See the link here.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F?p=CL=F

The key reason - the big hedge fund dislikes ISIS and will push down the price everytime ISIS captures oil well in the middle east.

Royce Chan, you are right about oil price and MYR range.

The concern is more about average flight selling price. I have shown in my comments previously, even at lower load factor of 75%, AAX could get higher revenue if they have 80% load factor at very much cut price. So, load factor is not a concern. I copy and paste back what I have written previously about Q2 revenue and profit

................ " Actually, AAX can generate more revenue and profit if they stick to previous RM 526 average ticket per person. Let me show you why.

AAX load factor 80% for ticket priced at RM 455 with passengers = 1,387,257. So, we get revenue equivalent to RM 631 million.

AAX load factor 75% (using 2016 data) for ticket priced at RM 526, normalizing 75% load factor with Q22017 passengers, is 1,291,884 passengers. Revenue at that ticket price is RM 679 million.

Increased of revenue when ticket price is increased to RM 526 is RM 679mill - RM631mill = RM 49 million.

.............................

Because less passenger, we expect reduction of ancillary revenue.

With 1,387,257 passengers, ancillary revenue of AAX = RM 194 million.


With 1,291,884, ancillary revenue of AAX = RM 180 million.

So, decrease of ancillary revenue is RM 14 million.

..............................

Net increase in revenue = RM 49 million - RM 14 million = RM 35 million.

At current juncture, AAX Q3 result should be better than Q2.....my only worries , too obsessed with market share will reduce profit. Average fare per person around RM 500 would be great.

I wiil do that ... Q3 ends 30 Sept. stiill long time for currency and oil price to fluctuate.

My prediction for Q2 was quite close... You want me to predict the numbers for Q3 ?

AAX business model is good. It just needs a finetune. USD/MYR exchange rate is grtting better. Q2 represent worst result even at that worst, load factor is 80%. Q3 would be better.

have to work hard and smart lah Angeline

With analytics, I could develop a pricing computer system that will make AAX competitors go crazy ... LOL . Believe me, can get 80% load factor even with increased ticket price.