I counter propose, to average fare on seat per indexed fuel cost kilometres , because that would be more nearer to revenue/ fuel cost.

Recap:

Q2 Average fare per seat = 572

Q2 Indexed fuel cost kilometers = 27.19.

............

Q1 Average fare per seat = 544

Q1 Indexed fuel cost kilometers = 28.19

........................................................

So you get

Q2 Average fare per seat per fuel index per kilometers = 572 / 27 = 21.18

Q1 Average fare per seat per fuel index per kilometers = 544 / 28.19 = 19.29

So, Average fare seat per fuel index per kilometers for Q1 is higher than Q2 by 10%. Bingo.

If you have doubt, please reply here. If you have alternative calculation, please show them.

Vtep, I think you want to have a ratio between revenue and cost , that is why you want to divide average seat per revenue kilometer , is it right ?

Royce Chan : My figure

Derivation from my previous posts:

For Q1 Revenue/passenger = RM 722.302.

Assume ancillary revenue = RM 150

Therefore average fare per passenger = 722.32 - 150 = RM 572.32

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

compared with Q1 : (From Quarter Report)


Average passenger fare for Q1 = RM 544

.....................................................................

So, average selling price of air tickets for Q2 is higher than average selling price of air tickets for Q1.

vtep : Can u show me how u derive sellinf price of air tickets is less than Q1 ? My calculation show otherwise.

Going through AAX operating statistics is like a jigsaw puzzle. It is amazingly fun. Omoshiroi !

Additional :

Q22017 - Given revenue passenger kilometre = 6.79 billion

Estimate revenue RM 1.004 billion and given passengers = 1.39 million.

Then we get total flight kilometres = 4.865 million.

Q2 Indexed fuel cost - 5.59 x 4.865 = 27.19

Q12017 - Given revenue passenger kilometre = 6.994 billion.

Revenue = RM 1.18 billion and passenger = 1.4 million.

Then we get total flight kilometres = 4.23 million.

Q1 Indexed fuel cost = 6.66 x 2.23 = 28.196

So, fuel cost in Q2 is lower than fuel cost in Q1.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We might get profit after tax around RM 30 million to Rm 50 million in Q2. Bingo.

Dongfang : Let go through some details below and I stand to be corrected.

I used the data on this link : http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/26/aax-malaysia-passengers-up-to-139-million/

Summarize :

Given available seat kilometre = 8.45 billion.

80% load factor, therefore

Passenger kilometre = 80 % x 8.45 billion = 6.76 billion. ........... Equation (1)

Given revenue passenger kilometre = 6.79 billion. .................... Equation (2)

Expected revenue for Q2 2017 = RM 1.004 billion. (Lower than Q1)

Given - number of passenger = 1.39 million.

Revenue/passenger = RM 1.004 / 1.39 = RM 722.302.

Assume ancillary revenue = RM 150

Therefore average fare per passenger = 722.32 - 150 = RM 572.32

Average passenger fare for Q1 = RM 544.

So, there is an increase of 5% in term of average fare compared to Q1.

.......................

Fuel index Q1 (Fuel price/ gallon x Exchange rate USD/MYR) = 1.5 x 4.427 = 6.66.
Fuel index Q2 = 1.30 x 4.3 = 5.59.

Better fuel index by 16%.

Exchange rate improvement = 2.8%.

So, 50-50 chance better financial result than Q1.

AAX is a giant killer . They turned SIA upside down (and of course MAS too). Both of them experiences losses, impressively SIA losses with increase of traffic of 2.6% but reduction of passenger flown revenue by 3.2% . Reduction of passenger flown revenue means passengers chose to take other flight than SIA. No wonder SIA is planning to have a RM 250 billion debt in order to chase AirAsia and AAX. And SIA is willing to pay RM 12.5 billion (minimum) depreciation a year.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/singapore-airlines-swings-4q-loss-dividends-slashed

Acceso, you mean you refer to this report (link below) ?

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/airasia-xs-2q-operating-performance-above-expectations

Baring any unforseen factor, AAX result Q2 2017 would be better than Q2 2016 and Q1 2017.

shit ...0.395 lol...Relax .... breath in , breathe out......I am already in. I'll be back again to top up more hahahaha. Looking at the volume 50, 000, 000 shares changing hand, is not an easy con job. AAX will be up very much eventually. Look at the crude oil price, it cant even break USD 50 per barrel. More hedge fund is losing hope. They can short the oil. If they do really short it, all hell break lose, and we may see crude be at USD 20 per barrel.

The key point is patience. If you want to really know the value of patience, get the film and watch it.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/

The key element is very clear - oil price is artificially high. It will crash down, and try to get stocks such as Air Asia, AAX, Tenaga Nasional, PetronX, refinery stocks and so on.... once you got it just breath in and breath out. You want to make 400% , it can not be one day increment to 400% , right.

Maybe a friend at a big government fund bought some. Just relax LOL.

Perhaps, new group of investors coming in ? I dont even get a chance to buy at 0.385.

Boss Chan will offer MGO of Talam at 1 sen per share because he has bought at 8 sen per share and he needs to cover his losses. Hahahahahahaaha

I like this article. May buy.

Frontkn start to trend up.... for those who followed me to purchase Frontkn at 31 sen and below, congratulation.

Actually Lim's selling is peanut compared to TF selling before December 2016.

Since Jun 2017 is assumed as the weakest term, any selling is considered as the time to re-enter the market. I am preparing an initial tranche $500k to enter the market if the selling push the price down below 39 cents.

My calculation made an assumption that the future price is higher than present price. Storing in VLCC double the losses when future price is lower than current price by same above amount and the oil is kept for 11 months before finding the buyer.

Many of the VLCC are hedgers, they do arbitrage between spot (present) price and futures price (to be delivered in the future. Example, if spot price is $44 and future price is $55, then the gross margin that they can make is is $11 per barrel.

1 VLCC can store 2,000,000 barrels of oil. If the cost of rental is $2 mill a month, the storage rental cost is $1 /barrel/month.

By this back of envelope calculation , they can sustain to store oil in VLCC for about 1 year before making a loss.

I have written about airlines super profit here ...

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/radziarticles/127668.jsp

No correlation between development in Tanjung Malim and Talam profit increases. Bye bye bye.

Hahahhahahahaha "Infusion of cash into Tanjung Malim" . Who is Tanjung Malim ? Talam got cash from Geely ..? Calvin Tan Eng is getting desperate..... (1) Geely building a plant in Tanjung Malim will take 5 years to complete. (2) Talam does not receive any cash from Geely. Period.

See you at 0.5 sen.

wwq4999 : All is good for aax ....need to look at effect of second quarter in the result. If aax cant catch it at 2nd quarter, the idd is very high to catch very good result in 3rd quarter.

wwq84999 : I assume everything should be alright with AAX. Just becareful about my prediction - it is 75% accurate.

Syndicate buy on their own to attract attention to a non value counter. Their money in is around RM 40,000. Dont buy. Let their speculative exercise goes bust T + 10.

After overbought, at USD 47 per barrel, oil slowly going back down to USD 40 - 44 per barrel range.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F?p=CL=F

It is going world going into the 3rd Quarter.... very well for AAX.

U r rite Ammar Roshidy , another thing ~ AirAsia forced Singapore Airlines profit to go down by more than 5-% and forced SIA to borrow a huge sum of money, which SIA will have to pay a depreciation cost of RM 12.5 billion a year.

I know Calvin Tan will dare not talk about Singapore Airline depreciation after this .

But, who cares. Air Asia is for the whole Asia to enjoy low fare. If I meet Tony Fernandes or Kama or Benjamin at a restaurant, I will pay for their lunch. Free lunch.

Not worth 3 sen. Wait till half sen ....also think many times whether to buy or not to buy.

If Talam goes down to 0.005 sen, maybe i buy hahaha and quick sell at 1 sen

Credit Suisse hold the shares under nominees account by private shareholder. The bank does not invest. It is just nominees account.

I pity those first hand house buyer of Talam houses. First, their house price will not go up very much compared to other developer houses within the same area. Second, they can not sell their houses because , bank does not give any loan to sub-sale purchaser for any Talam developed house.

Third, with interest rates going up, and Malaysia house supply too much, house prices will drop.

So, do the math. Worth it or not worth it ?

Unfortunately, Bank Islam will not approve any loan if the master developer is Talam . I called them this afternoon. So, can I get a loan from Bank of Singapore ? Talam developed house is currently very cheap because of developer getting blacklisted. I want to buy 5 houses in a row.

"Smart Investor" - please call 2-3 banks in Malaysia and check. Dont trust what I say and dobt trust what Bushden say but trust what the banks say.

Is boss jumps into mining lake , you also want to jump ?

In 2016, Boss bought at 8.5 sen. Now, market value loss by 50%. If boss really good , market value already risen by 50%.

"Smart investor should call any bank in Malaysia - ask the bank whether they can give loan if you want to buy Talam house.

I am 99.99999 % sure, bank wont give loan to buy Talam houses.

Better be smart than be conned.

Run run sell sell.... Calvin Tan Eng wants to con you to buy a nearly bankrupt company. This is a PN17 company. If the company is delisted, you lose 100% of your investment. Kiok .... mati kuku.

jt888 : Date 2009 is history but history will be repeated.

Street talk, there are a number of housing development area in Taman Putra Perdana where MOT from Master Title to Individual Title has not been transferred to purchasers since year 1998. Reason, TalamT has not paid land tax. Imagine, after 20 years, the accrued amount of land tax would be millions per one development area. If you have 10 development areas, it would easily catch RM 50 million.

To check whether what the street is saying true or not , you can call Talam Transform ,

http://www.ttransform.com.my/

or if they are reluctant to answer, just take a gamble call to any 3 banks in Malaysia. Ask them whether Talam Transform has been blacklisted by the banks or not . If 1 of the 3 says yes, then you know it for sure.

:)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

Hahahahahahahahahaaha. Another lies by Calvin Tan Eng exposed.

Talk on the streets - Government is still taking away Talam Transform land because they have not paid land related taxes up to millions of ringgit. Many Selangor citizens are complaining.

The last land seizure by Selangor government was land valued at RM 390 million.

http://www.malaysia-today.net/selangor-government-did-not-buy-over-talam-debts-exco-liu-says/

So, dont buy this stock when Calvin Tan Eng and Trinity Corporation is selling.

Talam Transform probability of bankruptcy is 43%.

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/2259.KL--Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

Once, it goes bankrupt, you lose everything.

So, don't waste your money on other people stupid blog and dogma.

Crude oil rebound has pushed it into USD 47 per barrel overbought situation. With interest rates going up, and artificial price because third party storing oil in VLCC tankers (majority in China) trying to profit from cotango (arbitrage between current and futures prices), i see only an oil crisis in 2018. Price crash is expected unless the third world war struck in the Middle East countries.

This comment just show that AAX is very "in demand" in Australia. A 15 years old girl has more guts than adult.

PETALING JAYA: An Australian passenger on board AirAsia X flight D7237 has defended the low cost carrier and the pilot against critics, saying that they should be praised and not blamed for the incident.

In a compelling first person account of the Perth to Kuala Lumpur flight, 15-year-old Madeline Wright wrote in a viral Facebook post that AirAsia and the pilot had done their best to keep all 359 people on board safe and calm during the incident and its aftermath.

"It disgusts me that people are criticising our captain for telling us to pray and are trying to get him fired," Wright wrote on Tuesday.

"The full context was, 'everything is under control in the cockpit. If you want to say a prayer, that might help too'," she said, adding that his urge for prayer was said in a way that comforted them.

Wright, who was embarking on a family holiday to Vietnam, stressed that the pilot made them feel safe and supplied them with sufficient information.

"He was a reassuring voice during this event and gave us hope, he is the reason I am still alive and I cannot thank him enough."

Wright also hit back at critics laying blame of the incident on AirAsia's low fare, explaining that unexpected technical difficulties could happen to any airline.

"The fact that we and other passengers paid less for a flight is not the reason for this plane's accident ... We didn't pay less for a technical problem, we paid less for no electronic devices, no meals and less leg room," she said.

Wright said after the plane successfully landed in Perth Airport, the passengers were tolerant and patient during the three-hour wait as the airline did its best to make them feel comfortable with vouchers for food and water.

She said during the wait, they were given the choice of full refunds of tickets, a rescheduled flight, or to wait at the airport for a later flight.

"It took time because during the chaos period, they needed to work out a plan and then communicate that plan. I'd rather wait to get one correct story than get four hastily-delivered wrong stories," she said.

Wright urged people to stop the criticism as AirAsia and its crew had done their best and ensured everyone's safety.

When contacted, Wright told The Star that she felt a need to voice her story as many people were telling the passengers to never fly with the "dodgy" airline and were also accusing the captain of wrongdoing.

"This was wrong of them and I wanted to speak out about this problem ... at least give people a personal perspective," she said.

She admitted that she was scared for her life when the plane started shaking, but calmed down when the pilot addressed the passengers about the technical issues they were facing.

"Once passengers were aware of what was happening, everyone was fairly calm and from thereafter the only thoughts we had was how we were going to land," she said, adding that the captain "made an amazing landing and everyone survived".

Wright's father, 45-year-old Andy Wright, described the flight as an "unfortunate incident quickly controlled by a competent pilot who showed professional detachment and human concern".

The forester said the passengers showed solidarity and shared joy with each other upon landing without seeking to lay blame, but the broader public who were not present has used the incident to voice "bigoted views".

The flight bound for Kuala Lumpur from Perth was forced to turn back after the Airbus A330 encountered technical difficulties.

According to reports, the aircraft was shaking like a "washing machine" during the two-hour flight back to the Perth Airport.

The aircraft landed safely at 10am on Sunday and all passengers were safely transferred to the next available flight or to the recovery flight at 11.40pm on the same day.

In a statement issued on Monday, AirAsia X said it is currently conducting an investigation into the cause of the incident together with the engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce.

It added that it was also cooperating fully with the local aviation authorities.

From Tony Fernandes

" Super proud of all my crew led by Captain Ibrahim. And first officer Vincent and Purser Ruijaruuneglai who did a superb heroic job bringing back everyone safely. Airasia don't make engines and all airlines have engine failures. But when it does happen it takes great pilots and great leadership in times of crisis. I'm beaming with pride. From videos you can see all guests calm , and from the many emails and whatsapp I got , the Captains announcements kept everyone calm. If it was a full service airline the pilot would have been a hero. But because it's a low cost carrier press and so called experts make wild accusations and forget the heroics of our crew. I want to thank the many Australians who have praised airasia for all we have done despite all the adverse press. Adelaide here we come."

Hahahahhahahahahahaha.

In 1980s , USD exchange rate was 2.50 when oil price was USD 20 per barrel. No, wont impact by oil price but would be impacted by Fed rates. Bank Negara will stabilise exchange rate by increasing domestic rate.

There are several weaknesses in certain countries. In China, corporate debt to GDP ratio is more than 200%. Any rate increase by US may affect China rate increase. Bankruptcy cases will rise. Not only , commodity price will fall but also financial stress in China is anticipated.

I hope a soft landing in China .

Crude oil price is just like a house with weak foundations.

The reason why oil price hovered around USD 50 - 55 the past 6 months is because companies such as airlines companies hedged into the futures. They are afraid the effect of OPEC cartel on oil production/price will increase the price in the future.

OPEC curtailment agreement is renewed till March 2018 and Qatar was isolated by Arabs states to stimulate trade embargo on Qatar, but this time around oil price dropped,, yes it dropped, meaning that companies had sufficiently hedged and does not hedge more in the future, thus the artificial high oil price foundation is broken.

Imagine high storey condominium with weak pillars, and you pull the pillar one by one, what will happen ? The whole condominium falls down to the floor.

Let me put a proposition of the most likely scenario, 6-12 months ahead , a few events will happen. (1) OPEC production cut agreement will lapse. (2) Interest rates keep on going up, (3) Non-OPEC production keep on increasing.

If OPEC members do not believe in production cut anymore , everyone will start to produce to the maximum economically viable production.

KABOOMMMMM. A crash is expected.

Chinaman : By the way, you should call me Dr. Radzi. I am not a lawyer and my strength is almost the same as Dr. Michael Burry - contradictory pattern recognition. You can call me Bengal, KNNCCB or anything. I am immune to that, as long as I make money in long term. The place where I came from, we greet each other as "Celaka" to mean - "Long Time No See". So, whenever I call someone stupid, he should feel honored to get that intimate gestures from me, if he learn anything. By the way, Dr. Michael Burry patience is longer than mine. His long term is "2-4 years". My long term is 6-12 months. Of course his long patience reward him with 489% of return. Mine, much less than that.

Hi Chinaman : Believe me , American Airlines are doing something about long haul business model, and companies like Emirates, Qatar Airways, Saudi Airline, and Etihadwill be having a hard time to do business in USA or may be banned from doing business in America. Their spoke-person is Warren Buffet and their regulator is American government.

Then AAX direction will not be Europe but America.

I am more afraid of 1MDB issue than airplane shaking. 1MDB issue had the potential to drop the whole Bursa down. Airplane shaking affect only one counter.

We know some macro trend is coming. Fed would increase interest rates. End of 2017 would see rate at 1.4% and 2018 would see rate at around 2.4% and 2019 would see rate at 3.0% .

Oil price - we might see a drop to between USD 30 - 40 per barrel by 2019. The opposite effect , would be on RM , which would depreciate, unless Bank Negara increases interest rates as well to stabilise RM. Najib with his baggage problem needs to go , fund will withdraw money as and more when news come out from DOJ.

Higher interest rate would becoming in Malaysia within next few years. Cost of fund increases and price needs to drop. Housing bubbles. Commodities price will tag along oil price crash. Thats look great for industrial and bad for agriculture. Bank will need to re-adjust. Non-performing loan will increase. Bad for property.

ASB investors by loan would sell back their loan to cover up with cost of fund increase. Well, I predict a doom. There is where we stand a chance to make some great money. Need to refine this analysis.

AAX and Airasia would survive.

stupid newinvestor17. If TunePro is good , no harm I promote. It is good . Low P/E , and high dividend yield. I need to understand why EPS less than DY. Anyway, it is a good company.

HoldingKing : I am finding time to understand TunePro business first... then only I do the analysis, ok.

I have my reasons to do this way, because statistics or analytics work wonder in data but when the theory is not correct, then thats it. I give you a hypothetical example. Based on 80 politicians in the USA, some researcher collect data on the politician winnable rate (by ratio of votes for divide with total votes) , and data on how much he spent on ice-cream treats on kids.

The data may trend winnable rates increases when his expenditure on ice-cream treat increases. There lie a structural problem here. How could kid vote for a politician when they are underage. So, correlation coefficient and p-value correctly relate wrong inference....Not meaningful to other politician, because he may buy lots of ice-cream to kiddies and then lost the election.

Obviously, you could go around that by understanding the pattern in that politicians donation by correlation ice-cream treat variation to the larger donation fund that the politician give away. Then, a correlation between probability of win with large donation fund is theoretically feasible. So, just be patient so that I can give quality analysis. I have Hari Raya coming, and I have some time weekend let see how much I can do with it.

Most hedged oil is consumed during Jan - June prriod.

In Jan, they hedge 70% of oil, i think niw they hedge around 40%