aax would still follow general market sentiment (market down aax boring, market up aax stimulating) because investor still not convinced until Q42015 result is out. Since market not efficient, opportunity for those who has not bought to buy...be safe .. no contra.

Most probably February

JJChan, it was a ballpark figure, not precise spreadsheet calculation. So, your estimate could be as good or better as my estimate, in many sense. Frankly, I see positive months ahead.

Hi JJChan, giving a band may hide some details... Important detail is my assumption - foreign exchange rate recovers by 30%. If that assumption wrong such as foreign exchange rate does not recover , my simulation goes wrong and aax goes may get less profit. If the foreign exchange rate recovers by 50%, profit before tax may go to RM 200 mill.

I studied aax income statement. On the revenue side, it was unfortunate that the indonesian government place a regulation that somehow made travel agent do not want to promote aax flight... and of course the flight crash in dec 2014 dent revenue upward trend such as the trend in Q12015 and Q22015. Do these problem keep on occuring ? No. Unless aax had another plane crash.

On the cost side, glaring operation loss is due to high fuel price and glaring profit before tax loss is due to currency exchange loss. Will these problem occur again ? Well , we have no controls.. It may or may not. Assuming that these problems do not recur in 2016 - I see $$$$$$$.

that RM 110 million is profit before tax.

Con-mam ohh con-mam ...... thank you very much for mentioning about depreciation . So indeed, I check-out aax 3rd. quarter income statement on depreciation. There was a depreciation cost of RM 37 million. If you take out the depreciation cost, aax would be making operating profit of RM 6 million... at Q3 2015. Sometime I admire certain company that does not show making operating profit by way of depreciation because it is a tax shield, but tax shield was not necessary for aax at Q32015 because of foreign exchange loss.

Of course, taking account current low oil price, I expect that aax would make an operating profit at least RM 25 mill for 1Q 2016 provided operation does not worsen. and hey this profit does not include expected turn-around profit from aax India operation and other countries.

The actual problem that aax faced in Q3 2015 was non-operating loss - foreign exchange loss of RM 240 million.

Assuming that currency recovers by 30% by 1Q2016 , then aax would get back RM 80 million. So, i simulate that aax would make a profit of around RM110 million in 1Q2016.

If you are not convinced, can you show other simulation ?

Focus Malaysia (30 Jan - 5 Feb) wrote that the daily chart and momentum is strongly bullish for aax. For those contra and margin players, listening to conmam advice may save yourself and future earnings. But once you have sold , you may not get the opportunity to buy back at the same lower price when the price suddenly pick up.. so you may lose some growth opportunity. For small time cash player like me, i prefer to wait because I believe that this counter will show significant improvement along 2016 as more and more institutions would change their opinion about aax, and when else can you purchase aax at RM 0.245 again in the future when we have missed RM 0.15 a few months ago ? If you could say the time I can repurchase aax at RM 0.245 in the future, i would then sell and buy the share back in the future...

Banking sectors, telcos and O&G will surely hurt during this financial year... They only show their result near the end of 2016, I dont know where else small time investor could go now except those counters that benefit from low commodity prices such as TNB, TopGlove and AirAsia

JJchan... what do you mean by - they blocked 0.245 with large number so that other sellers have no choice ?

Sell for future -tive profit , and buy for future +profit and growth. After the unfavourable condition (exchange rate, crash, high oil price, indonesia operation trouble) that led to hugh losses (bloated by the loss in currency exchange) and depressed share price, i think this year would be the reversal,+tive profit bloated by much better exchange rate. Hopefully, it do what AirAsia shares did previous years ago.