EPF, KWAP & AMANAH TRUSTEE FUND (the giant whales) also want to make money at the expense of small retailers. They r taking over from the sharks.

Yes, there is approximately 7 % probability that superbull11 & emil will be correct (i.e. SAPNRG drop to 65 sen or 35 sen); this is really scary for those of us who r holding a lot of SAPNRG shares. At the same time there is approximately 93 % probability that SAPNRG will hit RM 1.24 (TP of a few investment banks) within the next 3 months. So, it is fair for me to say this is a high risk high reward counter (advisable to have less than 20 % SAPNRG in portfolio).

Normally fund managers (including EPF) would sell down (reduce only, not sell off everything) losing counters (like SAPNRG) at year end so that their portfolios will show more better performing counters when they make year end reports and then buy back those losing counters in January bcoz they know very well that 2017 losing counters will be 2018 winning counters & vice versa. I experienced this before 4 years ago: I cut loss heavily (RM 7,000 realized loss) in December and then those losing counters immediately shot up in prices in the 1st week of January. If I had not cut loss in Dec (4 years ago), I would have made RM 10,000 profit in January instead of losing RM 7,000 in December.

Savusavu, I think u can test the water first when the stock market open in 02 Jan 2018 by buying a few thousand shares of SAPNRG. If it goes up or down by a few cents, u may buy more shares but if it goes down a lot then u may cut loss quickly & wait for 1 or 2 weeks to test the water again. Personally, I think this counter will shoot up in price (+10 or +20 cents) within January 2018 but I am prepared to be wrong (so buy at your own risk).

When trading in the stock market, we not only look at the fundamentals of the company and the technical charts.... we must also look at the competitive actions of the sharks & the giant whale, and sometimes government interventions too. Of course, we must also consider our own risk positions (don't use leverage at the wrong time).

EPF is the giant whale that is trying to put all the sharks out of business .... punishing them for manipulating the share prices of many counters (especially this one). When the all the sharks pressed down the price to 0.710, EPF let them do their pressing but when the sharks think that 0.710 is low enough & tried to push up the price, EPF started dumping millions of shares everyday & forced the price further down. If the price continue to go further down a lot, then the sharks r the ones that will lose much more money than small retailers. When all the sharks r out of business, then EPF will buy back all the shares at the lowest price. Unfortunately, by killing the sharks, EPF is also killing all the small retailers at the same time. EPF's tactics is worst than the sharks .... at least the sharks' action r predictable to some extent (but not EPF's action).

When all possible resources r used & a trader is already too much into this counter, the only way out (if the price fall below 0.700) is to sell some shares of this counter (take some realized loss) & then buy back at lower prices to average down further without bringing in new funds.

This counter seems to be getting nowhere (neither up or down)... luckily made some money in SPSETIA and BAT (both boring counters suddenly shot up).

Just swim with the sharks..... when they buy u buy, if they don't move u don't move (this way its quite safe).

On 19 Dec & 20 Dec, the seller & buyer portfolio manager for EPF was the same manager, i.e. CITY GROUP NOMINEES.

Earlier someone said the buyer & seller was the same group of people... he was correct, EPF is an example (EPF is seller & buyer on the same day, of course at different time).

The following was what EPF did last week:

On 19 Dec, disposed 6.5 million shares at 0.78 & acquired 3 million shares at 0.70.

On 20 Dec, disposed 3.35 million shares at 0.76 & acquired 6 million shares at 0.72.

Do u see any pattern? When they sell a few million shares at a higher price, the price fell 4 to 8 cents & then they buy back a few million shares at the lowest price on the same day. And then they sell again the next day (& buy back again). In other words, EPF is playing contra-trading... effectively averaging down their entry price without investing more money into SAPNRG.

Closed green for the first time with volume slightly higher than last Friday. Good sign that the rebound may be coming soon. But if the price fall below 0.700 then good opportunity for me to buy back shares at lower prices.

Last Friday I didn't get to buy at 0.700 and today I failed to buy at 0.705 even though I q earlier today.... seems like people r not willing to sell below 0.710.

Hahahaha!! I really like fzank's song!

It is very easy to see that the 0.68 target price is almost a certainty; what is difficult is to decide the best action.... is it to cut-loss? is it to buy more? or is it to do what EPF is doing all the time (buy, sell, buy back, & sell again)?

I studied & follow books the first few years & lost a lot of money (they haven't worked for me). Nowadays I use my own method (never written in any book, not that I have come across) and I also change tactics from time to time (can't win by always sticking to the same tactics).

I am also not encouraging people who have lost a lot of money in this counter to keep holding onto SAPNRG or keep averaging down. If u r an uptrend trader like most people, u should cut-loss (perhaps earlier & not at this late stage). If u r a counter-trend trader, I hope u know what u r doing & the huge risk u r taking (hence, my advise is don't put all your money in this counter).

It is harder to be counter-trend traders bcoz very few people can tahan the huge paper loss for a long time. If counter-trend traders lose, they lose big; if they win, they also win big (bcoz of this, they are thought to be greedy & stupid people). Yeah, they may lose in their bet on SAPNRG but that is the risk they chose to take with the hope that they may be right in the end. I hope the uptrend followers can be more understanding toward other people's trading style instead of always making fun of them everyday in this forum.

Most people buy on stock break out + uptrend; a minority buy on downtrend + historical low (they are the counter-trend traders). Whether u r uptrend traders or counter-trend traders, nobody is stupid in this game: each group of people have their own assessment of the situation.

This game is beginning to get exciting! Can't wait for next week. Happy holidays everyone!!

I think those big sharks just want to give small retailers a little hope so they can rest for the long weekend holidays. Next week they will probably start pressing down the price again. Too bad I q to buy at 0.700 a little too late (miss the sampan).

Just don't put all your money in SAPNRG then u will be fine.

When u move to other bullish counters then after awhile they will turn bearish. When u dump this bearish counter when it is at its lowest then they will turn bullish & u will miss the train. These 2 sentences r also FACTS bcoz it has always happened like that as long as stock market history existed.

Hahahaha!! I think the Traders already know that u all r aware of their game, so they must have changed tactics.

So we must buy back those shares we sell when the price drop 1 or 2 cents from yesterday's close in order to maintain our original number of shares so that when the 10 to 20 cents rebound comes around we still have plenty of shares left to sell at the 10 to 20 cents rebound.

Bcoz nobody can be 100% sure about the trend & we don't know when the rebound will happen except we see the price keep going down everyday.... so I have to act both ways: sell a little & buy a little (make 1 or 2 cents profit everyday better than losing 2 cents everyday holding those shares). 1 or 2 cents x 10k shares sold = RM100 or RM200 profit from this one counter only, better than losing RM500 or RM1000 everyday holding 50k shares when the price drop 1 or 2 cents everyday.

Don't q to buy at lower prices until at least 2 of your sell orders get executed first. Bcoz if u q to buy first and the price did not move up but move down instead then u end up having to throw in more money buying those shares.

Don't sell everything u have, e.g. if u have 50k shares, q to sell 3k @ 1 cents higher, q to sell another 3k @ 1.5 cents higher & q to sell another 3k @ 2 cents higher. If all your q got executed & the price move higher, then q to sell more (anyway, u got plenty of shares to sell).

I agree the trading trend & TA is showing that the price will drop to UOB's TP of RM0.68 (or maybe lower... like RM0.65) before it start moving up again. So, the only way not to lose more money when u r holding too much shares in this counter is to sell 1 or 2 cents higher than yesterday's close and buy back again when the price close 1 or 2 cents lower than yesterday's close. That way, u can maintain your number of shares & average down your entry price without throwing in new funds everyday to average down.

EPF is also like the other "big boys".... secretly dumping millions of shares & then announce it only 1 week later. When everyone panic bcoz of this belated news, the price will go lower... and when the price is very low already, they (EPF) will buy back again all those dumped shares at a huge discount.

I sold at 0.725, 0.730, 0.735 and bought back at 0.715.... so I did not lose any money even though the price close lower at 0.715 (and my average entry price also become lower bcoz of buying back at 0.715).

I'm satisfied with this counter's performance today (managed to sell & buy in a "box" like traders).

Not cutting loss but just reducing risk a little.

Whether up or down I may have to sell a few thousand shares today.... holding too much concentration risk in this counter.

Capital power & cash power is very important in any business (including this one). With this two powerful things (capital & cash), we can sleep well & even take year-end vacation (coming very soon).

I don't know why mamakspecial is so ANGRY. I was not even talking to him... & he start cursing in CAPITAL LETTERS, as if we cannot read if it is not in CAPITAL LETTERS. Anyway, many of his so call "facts" are not accurate but I lazy to reply & explain to him la.

Think about the wise saying: "The best time to buy is when u see blood & bad news all around." ...easier said than done (like now).

Actually, technically (analysis) this is the best time to start accumulating SAPNRG: its RSI is around 9 % (way below 30 % oversold territory), MACD histogram getting shorter upward for 6 days already, and price fall slowing down.... the only problem is most of us started buying this counter a little too early.

France ban on oil & gas production & start using fuel free car will only take effect on year 2040. By then, many of us may be dead already. So, don't worry now about lower oil demand bcoz of France's "new law." Oil price can still move up a little bit in 2018 & 2019.

Today no show. Yesterday's volume around 140 million shares. Now the volume is still less than 60 million shares... so, whatever pattern formed today (whether up or down) will be meaningless.

Mamakspecial, BAT making less profit than b4 but still making profit yr after yr and paying high dividends. I was just comparing it with your assumption that the France & UK fuel free cars will put oil & gas companies out of business.

If they keep pressing down & don't buy back the shares, they (trader or syndicate) will also lose money. They make money only by buying back the shares at lower prices.

Mamakspecial, just like 10 or 20 years ago they make the "no smoking in public place law" and "no cigarette advertisement law" and people think cigarette companies like BAT will go bankrupt... but BAT is still around making healthy profits and paying high dividends.

I don't hold SAPNRG bcoz I lose too much money but I hold it bcoz the probability of winning is high. Like GENTING, I see very low probability of winning in 1 or 2 weeks, so I sold off everything. If SAPNRG has low probability of winning, I will also sell off everything even if I lose a lot of money... bcoz if u don't sell then u will lose more in a few weeks' time.

If your average entry price is lower than most other people, then your probability of winning will be higher than 80%, may be 85% to 90%; bcoz u can start selling at lower price & earlier than other people.

If u cut-loss now, your probability of winning is 0% (loss 100%). If u can hold until b4 Chinese New Year (2018), your probability of winning is more than 80% (of course, there is still 20% probability of losing... no 100% guarantee in this game).

Pmaster, the 90% retail traders who will lose money are those who play contra and use margin bcoz they can't hold longer than a few days or weeks.

The push-up traders have an advantage at this point; they have the help of long term investors coming in to take advantage of the very low price "value buy."

Look at it this way: yesterday morning they manage to press the price down to 0.705 very quickly; today they only manage to press it down to 0.725 or 0.730 & take a long time to do so. So, it seems the down traders are losing steam.