What is wrong with this statement? Lack of understanding! But then again not for me to comment.


cheeseburger Gearing so high, oversea debt is a concern with weaken ringgit..
22/01/2015 07:05

Many moons ago I mentioned that the departure of Liew Kee Sin fr SPSetia will create a vacuum in leadership at the organization and also leadership needed for Battersea project in London despite the fact that he is still a Project Chairman there then. Reason was LKS no longer has the concerted effort to run SP fr the top.

On the other hand I also mentioned that M&A would restructure the PNB umbrella of property developers into one namely I&P, Sime, SPSetia, and EnO. However this can only be achived in stages as the effort to restructure is to refocus, realign to improved efficiency and effective use of assets during this inflationary period.

As with the lessons learned fr LKS and SPSetia, PNB thru Sime will not repeat this same mistake with E&O. In SPSetia, PNB took everything thinking they can control the company and mgmt by doing that before the key major task and project was completed. (Read my earlier comments for more)

In E&O, they cannot afford the same mistake. Hence the accumulation by Sime up to 32% was a really risky move especially then when the STP2 approval was not in yet. The release of approx 10% back to Terry and Snr Mgmt was a better move.
Together with the story above, apart fr those to do with strategy, my story also continued with Terry taking the role of LKS in London Battersea. The reason was that Terry was based in London and is familiar with the landscape, infrastructure and relationship necessary to manage the projects of that size. And now we see E&O's latest foray into Tower Thames and Landmark hse, on top of the Prince Hse, ESCA Hse and some lands earlier.

The above has put E&O in better footing especially income coming from UK which will diversify income stream away from Malaysia and to hedge because of our weak RM and uncertainty in Malaysia management with a more certain income and development.

Have a thought and draw your conclusion to invest wisely.

I hv mentioned before that Malaysia does not belong to Malaysian anymore, and the news pertaining Forrest City in Johor proves just that.
For a starter, the project involves massive massive reclaimation of 4 man made island. Some of you may wonder why I am bringing this up especially when E&O is doing the same? Fyi, E&O has taken many twist and turn to get to this point. This include the whole process of DEIA which then I told a certain Burger that it will take sometime to be approved. Of course then it was 2012 when this was mooted in serious discussion as STP2 reclaimation was controversial after what happened to STP1. You see accordingly STP1 had all the technical aspects and approval for the reclamation but not the live experience of what will happen. And also then many thing were approved by the Gerakan Soh chai then that include among many thing were which included STP1 reclamation works and concessionaires. The DAP Govt has learnt a lot from there and many of their approvals were conditional. It was so because many of the agreement that were signed during the STP1 were besiege by the concessionaire. Of course having said that, those contract can be nullified with compensation however the amount was large.
While having looked at this situation as well as the fact that Penang Island was getting very congested, the DAP CM decided to go ahead with the project while also able to avoid the compensation of contract being nullified. Win-Win? It's only a win win situation if the whole project was properly scrutinized.
How? For those esp the Burger remember I said that the DEIA is a long process would remember that approval for stage 1 was merely to inform the public that the State Govt agree to procee in talks for the DEIA. Many mistook it as a blanket approval for the reclamation to proceed. Hence Stage 2 was where the DEIA process were underway. This includes studying of the land and soil, the technical process and methods to reclaim, the effectiveness, the harm that it will bring to the natural setting, enviroment and habitats, the cost,......and also of course the feedback from public and the 45 days of display of findings and reports which was held at Komtar. This eventually led to the formal addressing of DEIA, the conditions and finally the approval. Now EnO has to ensure these conditions are fulfilled by the contractors thru the tender requirement.

In the case of Johor, Forrest City will be more complex and sizable, however the approval was given without any formal condition which case if we follow Penang, by right they can only start in 2017 end base on the size and complexity. Here again DOE is the first step, and we should be vigilant on the next approval which thru the same process should lead us in the same proceedings as EnO.

What has this got to do with Malaysian not own by Malysians? Well to begin with Johor is infested by the Chinese investors. This project was also initiated by the Chinese and I was told they went ahead with the reclamation. And thanks to the Singaporean govt who lodge a formal complain, this was put to a halt for the shortest time and now it's approved again. So the Chinese superpower is now having a big controlling stake in Iskandar and Johor together with their Singaporean investors.
If Johor, Penang, Singapore, Sabah, are heavilly controlled by Chinese investors, the Middle easterns are controlling the Golden triangle. While malay may not know, slowly and surely when majority assets are own by foreigners, the country is just a puppet eventually because they are valuable assets. Fundamentally as what we see in the way the Govt is runned, we may not be able to afford buying back theree assets later even if we wanted to. And I hv not even mentioned the Japanese and the European investing here.

While our counterpart in Singapore are bringing in high level foreigners even from Israel, US, UK, China, etc to join the development and to provide ideas and even joining their military to impart expertise, Malaysia is bringing is low level foreign workers. Soon we will not even be able to afford this worker and maids leave alone develop the country. 2020 is just around the corner....to be precise 5 years away and the country is selling out.

What do you think will be the scenario of our market then? Remeber beggars cannot be choosers.....

Now we know who got backbone and who doesn't...

Is Indonesia and Malaysia at war or maybe Cold War??


http://omakkau.blogspot.com/2015/01/kapal-nelayan-malaysia-di-letupkan-oleh.html


http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2015/01/09/surabaya-wants-to-sue-air-asia-indonesia/

Thank you Public Invest

Thank you Public Invest.

As I hv mentioned, EnO is not for everyone. Not for those who do not understand the stock. You may not see TA and definitely not FA ppl here. For a start, the company works on a reverse gear being niche in their industry. What that means simply is that the get accorded and saddle with the outcome before they are recognise. In many cases and I will cite you one which is close to happening ie STP2, which it has been accorded high GDV which hasn't happen yet. Hence this GDV cannot be even accrued with land valuation even if it has been confirm. This is the reason why, many guessed that they will sub the first piece of land out for development and start the valuation fr there.
Imagine a simple look at this...the breakeven mentioned by AMMB Is at RM94 psf for gross land while land valuation can be 5 times of that even before development profit is factored in. Hence AMMB is very upbeat on EnO and accorded it the TOP Property Stock on its list.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/eo-rises-56-after-being-picked-top-property-stock

Those land Developement that are straight forward would include the land they bought while factoring the adjacent development valuation to have an idea of the kind of margin they would be making. Thus in the case of EnO, this will be BIG even when factoring the nett land they have once reclamation is completed. There is a nett land which comes fr the fact that EnO upon completion, will surrender some parts to the state govt as agreed. Even then, this comes as a win-win situation because the land will be used for public ammenities which include infrastructure which again will elevate the value. My guest and many others who have factored adjacent land price near Tanjung Tokong would come up with very similar opinion as land becomes scarce in the island.

Within the next 2 days, the ex- date for Bonus and free warrant should be out.

Judging fr the oil price below 80 before the year ended should give many industries a chance to gauge their operating cost by hedging while leaving another notch of hedging for below 40/barrel. If below 40 is consistent many say petrol price in Malaysia may go1.20 to 1.40/litre. Mind you at this rate many petrolstation operators may go bust.

This is not a secret and I hv confirmed with many in the industry. You see the owner operators are required to buy a minimum qty of petrol and diesel to meet quota. Hence their price is already fixed when the retail price came down.
With the information above, investor and industries dependent on Oil may choose to hedge while leaving a bit for the price to fluctuate. They are doubtful that the Govt will choose to reduce it further to a such a low price because apart from operators dying, many of them will also choose to take minimum qty and this may create a situation of shortage of supply.

Imagine this, shortage of supply with high demand will increase the price in normal situation. In our case, since the Govt chose to be opaque in the way they calculate the petrol price, the price may be at any price they choose due to loses incurred by the operators and the possibility of shortage in supply to the consumers if prices are allowed to go another notch down.

Think and free yourself from rumors!

We are in bear territory because our market is weak. When DJIA a and S&P was bullish towards end of 2014, we were in the negative region, when oil price degenerated we fell weaker and the above mention story will tell you why we fall weaker and weaker. I believe very strongly that eventually for Malaysia the sectors will eventually hold their own. This means that players will only focus on the individual sector index if Malaysia continue to be susceptible to market manipulation like oil and CPO.

Think of it this way, with the global oil price dropping and essentially providing cheaper fuel for Malaysians beginning 2015, the sectors depending on oil indirectly will benefit however the sectors involved in this, will be hit. Sectors hit will be anything from the contract owners to sub contractor of OnG such as piping, pigging, offshore dredging, etc.

If the sector that depend indirectly to OnG for business consumption will benefit from the cheaper landing price now, however their contracted selling price remain the same. This means the profit margin will increase and it is similar to forex and currency exchange at purchase especially those who need to buy fr abroad.

Think and think deeper! Answer will be revealed by market, not me. I am only facilitating a thought.

In an enviroment like we have, with Bank Negara giving guarantee on Govt project, banks unlikely to increase its loan base, country's revenue affected by Oil and CPO, one really have to decide whether it is safe to keep a whole lot of money in bank?

How does Bank Negara sustain if it get into trouble? Today we use investment vehicle for investment purposes, like Khazanah, EPF, Equinas, errerr 1Mdb and so on but main Forex is still with Bank Negara yes? We do not know the health state of Bank Negara do we? To most of us Bank Negara is a policy maker and enforcer just like Security Commision is to trading. However how many of us actually understand that Bank Negara OPR is the rate that they as Central Bank will provide to banks under its charge and in that way they regulate the system.
For example, if a bank gives you a 2% loan for business, you must generate business above 2% right? So similarly with Bank Negara to the Banks.

So for those who remember Soros and the stories that came with him and Mahathir, would know what the feud is about. While most talk about market crash, and repeat market crash, ...this is just a blanket statement or surface statement without understanding what can come with it. When we apparently lost in the forex dabbling those years, we blame SOrOs because Malaysia bet an opposite currency to what Soros was doing. I won't get into the depth of that argument but it's suffice to say that we lost big time and the reason above the opposite bets in currency against Soros was that Soros manipulated the currency by dumping and buying the opposite currency. This creates a surplus which however he already made his money fr that currency and moving to the next currency while Malaysia was catching the falling knife in the currency that SOrOs sold.
In the modern world we live in, this is to repeat itself with Oil, CPO, and modern economic warfare. One warfare is fought using TPPA as we all know controlling, and enforcing policies allow the larger market players control the equilibrium of the market better. Similarly in oil, where we don have a common policy controlling stakeholders especially outside OPEC.

Knowing this and knowing that the market is now an open one, many have the choice of investment in and out of the country as oppose to Mahathirs time. We are no longer bounded by just Malaysian currency for one or even Comission paid in MYR May not hold true anymore. Even many are PRs in other country while holding Malaysian passport. If you understand where I am getting at, market can crash however it will no longer be totally Malaysian stakeholder who will be affected.


Got it?

AMMB reiterated the RM9.47/shr Based on full valuation however conservative. TP4.73 at 50% discount fr 9.47.

Ok ok...let's break it down slightly. Some argue that property sales will be tough post GST while I argue that the STP2 will be many years ahead.
They argue that sales will drop despite STP2. I argue that all Developers are in same boat
They argue that all developers will fail, I argue that buyers are global
They argue that local developers will produce lower quality property to ensure higher take up and bank loan approval while I argue that lower quality will be on lower valued land and would be further inland or outside key areas
They argue that infrastructure and transportation is improving, I argue centralize core area in Malaysia remains valued high and higher overtime
They argue more take up better than niche take up, while I argue margins is very high for niche market
They argue cost of sale lower for low end property while I argue cost of development is lower for high end
They argue that lower end property overtime will have value higher in percentage while I argue that value stability is at higher end property
So in STP2 case, we know the valuation is more likely escalating. This means even if they take 3 years, 5 years or 10years to develop, the conservative price will be much higher because of land scarce in Penang Island

I hardly think it is a coincidence when all are falling flat for Malaysia. Could it be Malaysia or a few countries targeted in Asia. Check your facts starting with CPO and ending last year with weakening Ringgit and oil price. I am not confirming nor am I sure what is it that is pushing this with intent. As this is NOT a natural disaster, it makes figuring a little harder. After all who really know what the other person or country is really thinking about.
One thing worth a deeper thought is why us even though we may not know the core reason but we can figure the reason on surface. Ultimately we hv to accept that we hv a weak Goverment compared to Mahathir's time. Even as simple as making statement, we can already judge the wisdom amongst the leaders.

Firstly a strong leader like Mahahtir, all decision goes to him. This include ministers in his cabinet making statement, dealing with serious issues, perception, country's economy, and corruption money distribution.. You see when everything goes thru you, you are the BOSS, and you determine the distribution but when everyone has a business in making a country's decision, everyone is a BOSS and you become just a figure head. Mahathir is a true BOSS because not only decisions must be approved by him, even laws are ammended to address the powers of the royalty. Even corruption maybe a case of dissemination by the boss as opposed to everyone for themselves. In that case, even the perception may not be good fr the moral standpoint, everyone recognise the BOSS as the head. After all who cares moral when country is stable and everyone has a share as long as the BOSS calls are followed.

Secondly, the idea, creativity and believe must be there. Remember when we went thru the AFC ? Mahathir came out and pegged the currency to stamp our exposure, made open statement for ppl to sell their personal gold and importantly to ensure money continues to change hand. By doing all of his suggested, the believe and idea is that the economy continue to churn and slowly but surely coming to it own again. What he did was to kickstart the economy. We didn't appreciate that then and took it for granted of his suggestion while his policies took place. We then complain but we were sure things will improve because the BOSS always strengthens and correct even if it's a mistake. He redress issues and not allow them to beleaguere. So far in the current administration, we hv been thru recession, CPO demand dropping, oil price dropping, weak ringgit, etc and yet we have not seen any statement to address our situation while mega problems are being self created in the 1Mdb issue.....

Thirdly, the BOSS doesn't behave like a full dictator in the sense that he will still address actions that he has taken. Case in point, the Anwar Ibrahim sodomy. He continuously assured the ppl that he was convinced with facts about the immoral activities that Anwar did. While the truth and the case itself is secondary to this argument, the point here is that Mahathir continued to explain his stand as opposed to asking ppl not to question or even worst remain silent while using sedition act discriminately to shut the ppls views.

Fourthly, we hv also shown the world we cannot handle our own problem starting from missing Air Force jet engine, to murder without closure, to failed resolution in the religious issue, to our handling of MH370 esp cargo manifest ....and now the Paul Phua issue

Now coming back to our point on whether it is a coincidence or not in all the happenings, the four points will tell you we are susceptible to bullying for the rich resource that we have and soon those with baggage will be held at ransom. We will then be at the mercy or maybe things maybe better then....

So will the EnO price move tomorrow ? One way of looking at this is that the base card has been revealed. The base card being the RM2.0686 TEAP and the exercise price at RM2.60. Many have been dissappointed by the exercise price because initially it was supposed to be rm2.90 and then rm2.72 and now confirmed at rm 2.60. This means that they have bridge the gap between TEAP to exercise price however it is still high at 25.69% . Remember for premium, the lower the better right? To decrease the premium at fix exercise price would mean lessening the gap nearer to 2.60 while increasing the gap will see a higher premium.
Who would benefit if the premium is high and takers are low? Isn't EnO raising funds fr this exercise? If you put your money in bank with the intent to gain, would you consider one with higher interest rate or lower? If your answer is high takers, yes and higher interest rate, wouldn't you want the possibility the same if you do not want to take loan. After all , market capital is interest free In a time when inflation and bank interest rates are rising. Money fr market that rises will bring more takers and allow leverage. Think of it this way, if 10ppl invest rm1 you get rm10. But if a proper value is created for the rm10 example appreciate in value and demand, the rm10 can become say rm22 and you will Hv addition rm12 leverage which will be free cash flow.

Don't you think that is better?

Today it's no longer profitable to build low cost property. As you can see even along Jalan Bangsar, there is a mix of low cost and high valued property. Similarly many other parts of KL and PJ for that matter. So in retrospect, building a low cost on high valued land vs high end property on similar land, which will be more profitable. ? The answer is there when you see low cost building collapsing as the margin that the contractor and developer gets is simply not worth their effort.

Looks like it will be a dissapointing warrant price when listed. It will be approx 34 cents to 40cents as opposed to a 47cents. Again it can be viewed either way....Terry saved the day by supporting the price when it was dropping and took up 3million Shrs in the process or we can query his choice of VWAP date instead of an earlier date. You see he has got the day after EGm Nov 28 to start the avg and announce it there and then but they chose the date when the price fell steep. Is falling towards rm2 and Terry bought 3Million shrs presumably between 2.04 to 2.08
Take for example Fitters which did the similar exercise for free warrant and bonus recently however with different ratio but also done by HLIB. The VWAP Was done immediate 5 days after EGM and the premium was 3.09% as opposed to the steep 25.69% due to delay.

Now this does not mean all bad. It really depends on how you play it. I have shared many times that I play 30% of my stocks with 20% margin. It would be impossible for to tell anyone when to sell as explained earlier. The next few days, they will announce the ex-date I am expecting to be 21st Jan or so followed by the quote and listing date for both. In my opinion, and I hv written on this before also (ref to 2013 end write up) which I mentioned due to DIBS ending Dec 31st 2013 and due to hedging there will be a rush. And similarly I mentioned again couple mths back that I am expecting something similar due to GST? Reason being Is property is under exempt rated and that mean no tax on buyers. After all buyers already hit by RPGT to slow down the selling and avoiding further price escalation. If they slow down further the buying also, the banks will go bust, while the cycle of buying and selling property will stop instantaneously., property developers will also go bust and our economy will go chaos. This is true however Property Developer will have to bear the tax. So this cost will have to be passed on right? So no tax to buyers but price will be higher factored with tax bearded by the developer.. And today there is a write up on this.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/penang-property-sector-braces-for-rush-as-gst-looms

The chinese are waiting to take on this developers that go bust and our govt must surely be aware. They should already know that many non property companies are trying to get in to this market in anticipation of the years ahead....like Euro, OSK, Hap Seng, etc
So think again what will happen when we have weak govt and opportunistic investors waiting at the door. Do you think when you are broke, you can be choser....can beggars be choosers. While some of the business can be taken up by cronies, they can certainly not take all

Have a thought!

So much for Chatterbox talk here. Coming back to E&O, it has been a long long long time since I wrote in EnO. Some stock never move, while some move south and others move north in periodically. EnO is unique. I have said many times that my writing is for ENO fans only, so you who read this for direction to buy, pls don't do so.
Sometimes we buy stocks that we like because they are in some ways like us. They represent our avatar in life while some shares we buy knowing its appreciating value. I hold plenty of Axiata during their rights issue at RM1.80, but honestly I like the MD/CEO....that's about it. I don't talk much about it nor passion outside what you read on common news. But EnO is different for me. I use to talk east talk west, talk 3 talk 4 abt this beauty.
As they say, beauty is in the eyes of the beholder.after all which crazy fella will buy a PE23 counter? Hahahaha......much like cars, some are Mercedes kaki some are BMW some are Japsanese car...and some love Volkwagen even though it is problematic. Their love for Volkswagen is the drive which they say is powerfull with personality. They say it compensates for the problem they have while others love Beamer for the wild ride and Mercs for the comfort.....whichever it is,I on a personal level like EnO...yes a PE23 stock with much inflatable room to be filled and my reason is simple. I like the MD and I like the niche of the business they represent and I like the marketing they do especially globally and most of all I like the Expandables they are able to do with STP2. I have and will always in my opinion like development that are nicely located over a sizable single worthy location because they are strategic when it come to development cost, land appreciation, and their lifestyle niche which cannot be compared with others.

While many are looking at 2015 with much concern, I look at development that will pay off after 2015. You see, whatever development at this stage bring nothing except cost, however land appreciation will move much faster than the cost of development. Also cost of development is a way to hedge your funds. How many of you did renovation 5 years ago and realise that similar renovation will cost you 25% more now?

Have at thought! I will write a bit more when I reach Singapore.

Does anything happen for a reason or does anything happen for no reason?
We are all God fearing ppl and believe is a form or way, GOD is the creator of our world and Universe. At the same time, apart from GODs will, he also allow us free will and with that, intent of all purposes and malice is born. Some intent like mine is to write while others here is to proof themselves worthy of being a Sifu and some are here to gain business opportunities....this are intent of actions we do.
We can do them Becoz of free will that is accorded to us by the Almighty...Yes or NO? If Yes, you are a believer of 80% of most religion while if your answer is NO, you are a believer of fate only accorded by GOD. No right or wrong except that we must take responsibility to things that happen around us and NOT blame GOD for everything...RIght?
Even if GOD wanted to show his wrath, why would he do it in such a manner,...why not show something so drastic that ppl will remember it's GODs will as a reminder and not speculate of blackhand, GODs wrath and etc.
So in my opinion, the above situation of missing, shot down and crash of Malaysian plane is either man made or coincidental. If it's coincidental, it would be strange to be all fr Malaysia. Even so if we assume it's coincidental, Malaysian Ministers must stop making statements that we should consider ourselves lucky to be in Malaysia where it's safe and peaceful. Once I say that, it's stalk reminder to all of us NOT to make statements which only the creator of us can make. After all, Malaysia as a country does not belong to the elite or ministers as they are not the creator nor do they represent GOD. Even AA made the statement that they will not lose any plane only to be greeted by this.

So now we are back to square one, why did this happen,....GODs will or free Will that created this disaster. I cannot say for certain but as the number 8 goes (based on my earlier writing) it has no beginning or end, and it is two circle interconnected and balances life as we know....remember I mention night day, heaven hell,yin yang,.....only GOD can change that 8 cycle and u til then do good and believe with all intent and purposes all action has a opposite and equal reaction

I hv my own interpretation of this but I will leave you to interprete. As with Karma, universe balance, energy balance and etc, Malaysia has been out of balance for sometime now. Even the floods are a sign. NO I don't mean Hudud or no Hudud thingy, neither is it a wrath of God or even other extremist view but one that we can feel for.
We have black we hv white, we have acid we must hv alkali, we hv yin we hv yang, or even good and bad or ....but the essense is it CANNOT EXIST WITH ALL THINGS ON ONE SIDE.
Eg. We had extreme dry spell earlier this year and now it extreme wet spell. Why can't it be extreme dry spell and moderate wet spell. This year is extreme wet with floods affecting 200k + residents of the affect state displaced.

Hence ur answer on the airlines disaster must hv this same analogy equal and opposite

Is 8 a message? Or is 8 a coincidence?
We have 8888 appearing adding all the flight number
We have 8 appearing adding the dates as a sum
We have 8 appearing as individual numbers of the dates added.

8 means prosperity in Chinese
8 means a twist and turn without ending in Gysie tarot
8 also means material wealth in divine message
8 also means balance of giving and receiving to balance the universe.

I can write more parallels to this 8 till the cows come home but the point of the question is what is the message.....This is the same as all interpretation that we do isn't it?

Even if I add 8 + 1 + 7 + 2 + 8 = 26
2 + 6 = 8

MH370 dissapeared on Mar 8
MH17 shot down on July 17
8501 crash on Dec 28

If we add 8 + 17 + 28 = 53
5 + 3 = 8 again

How abt this one 370 + 17 + 8501 = 8888. This is exactly what I wrote abt on Feng Sui yesterday. It's always easy to find a resemblance or pattern after thing happen and anything b4 that is interpretation.

Can ppl predict future like Nostradamos or a clairvoyant or a medium or bomoh? The answer is a yes and a no unfortunately because when they predict correctly, all eyes are on them while they fail, the Mickey will be taken out of them. I just receive an interesting email on the "International backhand" ...the Iluminati Watcher ....calling himself Landlord who has been predicting an attack on AA for quite sometime now after MH 370 and MH17 and only stopped posting two weeks ago just prior to the 8501 crashed.

http://illuminatiwatcher.com/airasia-flight-qz8501-black-hand-illuminati-conspiracy-theories/
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread1048212/pg1

If you believe in the China secret agent " " thingy, that maybe a good story for you. The idea above seem rediculous before it happened but this guy has a large following, now that it has happened. As I have always said, future has many variable, from free will of individuals to malice of humans to fate or takdir tuhan to GOD's Will. Whichever it is, this is definitely GOD's Will or takdir tuhan and not any of the above mentioned blackhand. The reason I say that is because to bring down a plane apart from malice and cruel planned intentions, the situation has got to be right ...example the flight has got to fly over say a war zone like MH17. In the 8501 situation which was bad whether at the extreme, it would be a miracle that an attack can be orchestrated without the ability to control the situation ,ie the weather with 7 other flights around the same area and almost same time. This has got to be a super extreme coordinator to pull out an attack like this if its true maybe a possibility of 0.001% that it can happen as planned.

So even when a person gambles on a prediction without knowing the outcome, if he manages to get it right he will be worship until his next prediction after which we will know who and what real ability he has in forecasting future. The idea here today is getting as much prediction correct based on controlled environment. After all who can tell with certainty what calamity will happen tomorrow or what response the market will have on that news until it happens.

I just only wrote on threaded buy and sell, the biggest of them all has finally decided to leave this counter. Never been a fan of these bloodsuckers even when they invest my money. After all threaded buy sell does not allow appreciation.
This is because each time they buy and sell earlier than you,it creates a vacuum.
How?
Look at your daily buy n sell queue. If the queue has a lot of seller or buyer, you will notice either one or the other (ie either seller or buyer will relent) and if buyer relent and buy at seller price, the shr price will move up n similarly seller selling at buyer price, price will come down. When I instituition buys fr market, they normally do not queue. What they will do is wait for the seller queue to swell up before coming in n buying at their price. Reason why they wait is because normally first thing in the morning players are more cautious n may not queue but wait for market to settle in. In many cases, player come in after 10am after having a feel of the market especially during these turmoil mth where oil & MYR exchange are stacked against us.

Once these Instituition are happy with the queue, ie happy that take up has entered stalemate where both buyer n seller will not relent on their price, the investment house will be happy to take the price of seller and the counter price will move north momentarily. This is the reason why shr price go up quickly b4 coming down in a slide. In this game, the investors are collectors only. However if large scale investor are riding on the wave, this becomes a bull.

Hence my reading is simplified into 2 category, a bull or a collection, if the day ends with a substantial volume. As explained, a collection by large collector may cause shr price to fluctuate north momentarily before dropping. So imagine if the collector plays threaded buy sell. You n I will be watching many sea waves. Sea waves in the sense that there will be many ups and down due to threaded buy sell.

If you understand what I m saying above, it is always desirable to get more VIP investors rather than VIP traders who create these waves. The term wave here is succession of up n downs in the share price with volume. So imagine this also, if a VIP trader buys all in the seller queue, it will create a vacuum betwen buyer n seller queue right? When that happens, the the individual buyer normally unlikely to follow thru with further higher buy n will maintain at the earlier buyer price hence the price will drop. A bull however can be manufacture by a player by buying in succession in emulate demand instead of waiting for volume of seller to pick up before buying all at one go. In this way, sellers will keep adding in believe that demand is there n hopefully more other buyers will come in and follow thru. This is only good if volume are not big in sellers queue.

Finally the pain in my arse is gone, gone on 22nd Dec...5 trading days ago. I feel wonderful. Is it time to get my new toilet....I think I will refurbish my whole toilet now to brass and gold with black tiles. You bet it's going to happen just watch

Makes sense?? It's a fulfilling story to explain....while explaining backwards is easy after events have already happen end, predictingfuture is very hard. It's hard because there are a million factors from Free Will in each of us to Will of GOD to fate, to every other western zodiac sign, animal sign, location and etc. I know I sound as if I have gone one full cycle in trying to explain but that is exactly what I want you to think. Is there really a 100% pattern to a future when the possibility is so wide.? The answer is YES. Example if you are learning to ride a bicycle, there are a million thing to consider....ie how to balance, how to fall, how to overcome fear, how to coordinate while looking out for traffic etc however once you grasp it, all the concern become secondary.

So you can train yourself to read a situation once you are very familiar and take the appropriate response even though you cannot predict all the way and the future accurately.

What say you??

EMany have formed an opinion of a disastrous 2014, the year of Wooden Horse. Many prediction of Feng sui did not turn up accurate including banks and airlines. As though the lost of MH370 to kick off 2014 Horse year (in the first quarter) was not bad enough, it is ending with AirAsia similarly in the last 3mths before the year of the Sheep kicking off on Feb19 2015. Many are less optimistic of flying in any Asian airlines until we are into year of the Sheep. After all CNN has depict as if Indian Sea and South China Sea where Thailand, Indonesia and Australia has formed the new Bermuda Triangle. Who could blame them especially with the severe weather conditions faced in Thailand and Malaysia.

Is the year of the Sheep better? I don't know, and have to wait until the 3 Masters/Sifu appear again to give their prediction. One of classical feng sui, the other of marketing feng sui and the last based on modern views. Personally I m not a big fan of feng sui prediction and not that I don't believe in energy but I doubt the ones who interpret them for a living. So on a personal note, I am awaiting Sheep year with hope of a better tomorrow more so than the Western calender ending which changes to 2015 in 4 days.

The thing about of this energy thing, if explain from the Western perspective makes more sense while Feng Sui is a eastern thing. The way Feng Sui has been explain sometimes takes the view to a whole new perspective of anything can happen. Example if metal is good, they can interprete it as vault, and vault as banks and hence banks will do well or maybe even car industries or airline which the body of the vehicle or plane is made of. However if explain from energy perspective can make more sense. You see energy can neither be created or destroyed. It's transference....example wind to windmill, to rotation of the wheel to water fetched to .....or even windmil to motor to transferred energy to run a certain operation. Once this energy completes its cycle, it goes into end product which can be food product and when consume it release energy which as humans is needed for our bodily function and physical requirement to get work done again and this cycle goes round and round until we die and our body become fertilize for the earth to reproduce etc.

So in the same way, if in chinese Feng Sui, metal is good for a certain years say Horse year, We know 2014 is a wooden horse, while the Horse is a positive sign as a running horse is a successful sign and they believe wood (from Wooden Horse) fuel the horse (as wood burns easy with Fire) hence they predicted a good year for airlines which runs on fuel while others say that Malaysian airline is Mah Hong which directly oppose the year of the horse. Now how that Air Asia is also affected? AA is not Mah Hong so why are they affected of possible crash? The chinese context of explanation is so complex that it can be many many reasons while I won't say it is wrong, I would say it is really interpretation.

What if I explain it this way, ....fire impedes a good running horse if the horse is wooden because wood burns well and the horse will be affected hence not run well. This can maybe explain why the horse cannot run and in general airlines affected and global oil price affected and our own petrol price has been sky high. While some actually say house are wood hence not good.....I would explain it from this point....houses in Malaysia has probably only 10% wood which makes the roof trusses and the rest are bricks made of clay or cement. Clay is earth and not wood. They help support wooden horse and probable less likely to burn. I am not here to re-write Feng sui and neither am I trying to fit a story which already has happen with a warp explanation but I like to think 2014 has a bIG BIG energy transferred from a burning Wooden horse and instead of being good, it became overwhelming and out of control as earlier this year we had dry spell and the fire was hot and the recent wet spell has created a turmoil in changing the condition of the situation. Like any massive change (a red hot burning wooden horse during a dry spell to wet closing dousing the fire towards the Sheep year.

Strange Tony sold much of his holding in Tune Insurance since Dec 22.

I wrote a piece some month ago whether Malaysia was under attack.....???? A Big question mark then and I cited some facts and lately again I wrote again on virtual and borderless attacks.
I am NOT suggesting anything out of the ordinary except that of hints and signs pointing to the new world order we live in.
During WW2 the Germans and Japanese and even the Americans were testing a lot chemical and biological warfare to subdued their enemies. These atrocities were recorded, some more obvious than other especially the torture chambers used by Japs and Germans to torture and experimented with soldiers of war. The Americans too were involved in such atrocities probably less obvious like the agent orange used in the Vietnam war. All these experiment then was to bring down their enemy in the most effective and efficient way. This include gases, chemical, biological and even atomic. There were no human rights then or rather not seen like what we have today.
We hv gone one full cycle with human rights and governing bodies today like NATO, UN, and other various bodies that represent either NGO bodies in combating such thing as slavery, rules of engagement in war, and world order policies. The ironic thing is these full cycle brought back what these bodies and policies tried to prevent in a modern day interpretation of the same thing. Today the war attrocities are coming back in the form of modern violence in ISIS, Al Qaeda, human slavery in prostituition, to nuclear development in Iran and North Korea to cyber attacks that can cripple a countries economy to ransom attacks (such as those seen in recent OPEC and NON-OPEC spate) and stock market manipulation to etc. So hv we got better? Hv we become more civilized or are we destined to leap forward with new policies that can address the world order before evolution of cycle brings it back in future again? We can see the US are trying to bring back world order in many areas and attempt and some in the business/economic areas like TPPA, anti monopoly, anti trust, regulated open market, terms of mutual interest and so on though most are to benefit them especially those involving INtellectual Properties.

When looking at all those points that I hv highlighted above, one cannot ignore the fact that something's can hardly be coincidence. 3 planes gone and all from Malaysia? Obama becoming the first President to visit Malaysia in 50 years?, Global oil price war in demand and supply which will hurt Malaysia's 110Billion revenue, CPO decline (probably the least amongst them all since CPO is also affected by weather) and many more which I hv highlighted in my last writing. I am NOT suggesting this is a modern day war on Malaysia, but there are too many coincidences levied against us and Malaysia has also show many weaknesses in our country Managment and dependence on the two key oil and CPO as our revenue, until we hv to do a "diplomacy golf"
As the name ransom attacks suggest, I believe we are into the new world order where ransom attacks can be one method used to push for thing and even more so with those countries where the Managment and execution is weak and Mnaged thru emotions/politics more than wisdom and intellects.

Have a wonderful Weekend of what is left.!,

Following my last statement, this is a very good avg by Datuk Wong Kuo Hea. Though this is not exactly a threaded buy, but the characteristic of buying at diff price is what I want to get at. In this case he did an avg for the day and he did it heavier volume at the lower price. This means 2 things, one to protract the drop in price of his counter and second to support the price as much as possible while accumulating. If this was done in two buys eg first set of volume buy at 3.65 and second volume at 3.56 (instead of the 10 buys in the example below), he would have a 9cents gap we would have a threaded buy. Imagine he Dato had a buy call to you at 3.65 while he also avg down to 3.56, you would have held at 3.65 while his lowest is 9 cents below. So when he call for sell say at 3.70, he would have a 14cents margin of profit in his second threaded buy sell while you only have 5cents only margin to play.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1834521


On the same note, the play above is more likely a supporting play, ie to support the price drop because if he was collecting for rebound, the gap of collection would have been bigger instead of every cent.

Have a thought!

Investment is an art. Most ppl here want direct answers. Technicality can only be accurate if no external and unforeseen dabbles with it. I can tell you if you buy like I buy and sell like I sell, I may make and you may lose. The reason here is very simple, while technicality like TA or FA gives you an equation to a high probable answer just like 1+2+3+4=10 but in real world it is normally 1+2+3+X=?. The idea here is to get as many answers in the equation and hopefully just having to pick one variable like the example. I try not to pick one with too many variables as the odds would stack up.
Now coming back to my former statement, of following a buy and sell but one makes money while the other doesn't. One reason is a threaded buy and sell. This means that eg Player 1 may have multiple cheaper buy and sell higher while player 2 may have a single buy with lower margin or none at sell price.
The example below show EPF selling on the same day with almost equal volume. You may wonder why and the answer is as stated above. They have many threaded buy and their selling & buying on same day is for reasons of accounting for the profit of each threaded buy.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1795997

I will share another example of threaded buys in the manner of averaging down in the next example

Btw what happen to Papagamo?

Wow got to be reminded to come back....

How do you play bonus and warrant...?

There are many ways to play these exercise shares however apart from players game, this exercise involves heavily on the company management and also the Investment house carrying out these exercise. For one, the exercise execution/nominated dates ie. the VWAP/TEBP, the ex-date announcement, the ex-date itself, the listing and quotation of the bonus and warrant are all very key. For example
1. VWAP/TEBC - this will provide a perceived premium of the warrant. The higher the premium the less desirable the warrant.
2. The dates between announcement of ex-date to the date itself. This is and should be short, normally within 2 weeks to avoid protracting and allowing manipulation to the price.
3. The third is also very key ie. The investment Hse carrying out the due exercise. This is so because their announcement and consistency in track record and execution will ensure the success of their next entrusted exercise.
4. This fourth point is less obvious however it is still key. Again I suggest those who look at this to do some homework. First take all previous exercise and compare the TEBP vs the Actual Ex-Date price against the point number 3. If you see something there, good for you. This is very important but less obvious.
5. The listing dates Bonus and Warrant. Most of the time if not all Bonus will be ahead. Apart from. The obvious answer, there is also another reason.
6. The company and their management themselves. How the company and mgmt view market, shareholders, traders, reputation...all hinge on them. If they forgo their reputation to make money from investors, traders,.....

So think again .....market is unpredictable. I Hv earlier said the year will end with positive. When I said that, I said that with conviction barring against things that involve unforseen natural disaster or explicit man made issue like oil. I still hold tight to that. While I cannot control most of these, I can control what I know will happen right?.
If you know you put money into FD at 3% interest, you know you will definitely get that interest upon maturity right? And if you know it's 3 % you definitely know how much you are getting right?
That's my point, and the only uncertainty is if the bank goes bankrupt, otherwise you are assured. So this is the same as those things in market that you are certain of. I have listed the 5 points that you can be certain of with the only down side being the market pressure.

I held 8 counters earlier this year and am down to 4. Amongst the 4 that I have sold, One really stood out as a sore thumb in meeting those criteria especially no 6. Not only did it not meet, they played their own stock and they played it down due to their greed. That counter has been blacklisted amongst many investors. I believe those who followed would know which counter I am talking about.

Hope my message is clear..!

I cannot remember in any years of Malaysia independence since 1957 that we ever have so many disaster in a year. We had 2 MAS disaster, we had tornados, we had dry spell, we had religious issue, we had inflation and a continuous one, LCW doping, violence in our football, more extremist group emerging........and now floods at national level emergency.

Next year we may have new challenges however I do not believe it can be as bad as the one we just went thru.

So I will start by wishing All A Happy New Year and a better 2015!!

While everyone is debating on the oil price below USD62 to 20, my question is ...Is this really the issue? Maybe we need to narrow down three notches...
Notch 1 OPEC vs Non-OPEC
Once we understand that then
Notch 2 Middle East vs OPEC
Then only we see, the real stun gun
Notch 3 ISIS vs Allies

You see, in the fight against ISIS, one has to know where the money is coming from...some says weapons are supplied by Turkey while many believe illicit flow of black money is funding this group. While the leader of ISIS used to be in US detention, he was also given free access to mingle and create a hierarchy in the detention center. Now we know, when hierarchy is allowed to be created amongst detainees, it always creates leaders amongst the group. This is the same way cells are created. Hence the Taliban are actually created in the same way by the CIA to oppose the Russian in Afghanistan the same way.

Today the enemies are literally within us. As the world become more borderless, attacks can be virtual to disable the very core of things that ensure the superpowers to be in existence. It may also be attacks from within the country similar to the 911 style or even getting into the minds of the next generation thru propaganda and education system. You see in the US especially, there can be many elective and subjects that can be thought in their Universities that can lead to this propaganda being thought or passed on without being obvious. I shall not elaborate too much and I believe you get my idea of indirect atTack.

Now back to Notch 3, while I believe some of the Middle East group (minority group) is funding this movement, the majority opposing it may have to pay the price. I hv used the term stun gun to describe the situation, as I believe it will be temporary to stun the funding in this unseen, virtual, borderless war.

I will reiterate, THIS IS ONLY MY OPINION.....NOTHING HERE IS REAL, TRUE OR PROVEN. DO NOT TAKE THIS AS AN ADVICE OR A FACT. ITS JUST A STORY AND UNTIL IT BECOMES A FACT, TREAT IT AS READING PLEASURE AND FICTION.

Sound better if they call it Stoppissng

I like the word plateau...bottom plateau, ceiling plateau....plateau or tapering or what ever you call it, it is an indication of reversal or likely reversal. A plateau happens based on my earlier explanation. Today, we are not talking about plateau for what it is but rather what it does to the market. The last week saw a rebound in the KLCI but do we know really why?

Our market is FCUK market....we anticipate opposite. Take for instance the currency difference vs USD (url as below) As soon as the ringgit vs usd decline due to weak ringgit (denoted by the higher MYR per USD) many already ran. The reason for the abandoment by foreign investors are mainly due to the fact that they may lose even when win due to the exchange rate. This coupled with the double whammy of oil price depression, one can imagine the investors' losses with the effect of OnG stocks creating a domino effect on the other counter. Hence the foreign funds pull out for safe haven of cash kingdom.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDMYR:CUR

So this is what I want you to think about. With both double whammy showing a plateau, thus bringing some interest back to the market and moving the KLCI forward....what do you think is next?
As with the chart in the url above on MYR vs USD which is tapering off the ceiling, it must show the actual improvement if the exchange performance for MYR now. This movement of KLCI is only anticipation of the plateau to form the upward curve..similarly with the Oil. If the tie over to 2015 shows promising with the both these indicator showing the right trend, there will be a larger margin to be met in this short period.

Feeding Frenzy....

Be mindful, when you see such things you call a roadblock or resistance....a resistance is a resistance when the volume keeps adding for a immediate selling price even though taker/buyers are not abound.
HOWEVER,
A perceived roadblock is when volume at sellers price keep adding WITH takers. What you will commonly see is the sellers keep adding volume which seems like a roadblock at however if monitored closely, the volume each time is taken up by buyers similarly in the case of support where the sellers will take whatever volume the buyer throws out.

In cases like this, BE MINDFUL, it could be Feeding Frenzy. This is a case where an exchange is taking place but avoiding the obvious.
Why do they want to exchange by adding volume instead of putting all in?
Most cases is to delay the price fr moving up. The reason for doing so is to control the substantial volume from moving the price up and then dropping the due to irregular buyers. By selling at a certain price, it ensure either
1. They clear the irregular buyers or
2. There is an exchange going on. This Exhange will not see buyer at the queue. They just take the sellers price once the seller loads.

So have a look at your counter and determine if the case is one of the mentioned. If it is, especially if there is a transaction between buyer seller to delay ( for whatever reason), you only have to wait to see the outcome. From the outcome, you will learn the counter that you play and you will learn the Managment of the company.

This is a better url for OIL....for ref

http://www.oil-price.net

With the recent position of oil garnering much attention, treat the current oil price like any retail and wholesale purchases. If you think of it that way, then you will find that the traders will also be looking for this same opportunity to buy cheap.
Ever been on a shopping spree and you buy things that you don't need just because it's cheap? This will be the same case even for those who are not into OnG. While many believe the OnG are directly involving OPEC, they have come out to deny and rightfully so. Reason I m saying this is Oil is no longer a commodity that works on its own. The dwellers, the contractors, the OPEC folks, the commodity players, the alternative energy....have all sunken in a piece of each other to moderate the demand of Oil in event oil becomes scarce. Initially the oil supply was thought to be another 10 years, then 20 years, then.....so the moderation is evident and the commodity of oil should not hold market ransom if the back end has already worked out the contingency.
Hence as I mentioned in my last remark few days ago,mths beneficiary of this drop in market performance may be earning much more than expected. Imagine Oil price drop nearly 50% fr peak. If traders rush in after waiting for the plateau which may be evident, all heaven will break loose and year 2014 may eventually close with a BANG or may January 2015 may open with a BOOM.

Have a thought.....Happy Holidays....!

There are always three side to a coin...namely, the heads, the tail and the roller (ie when you roll a coin). Just as the name suggest, the roller is something hard to comeby. When it does roll during a flip of the coin, it is hard to tell whether it will end at heads or tail or even stay in upright position.
Though stationary upright is hard to comeby or for some never at all, rolling is possible and have a higher probability of 1 out of 10 times happening using the right method to flip.
Since most of us are in the mode of catching the trend reversal since 3 weeks ago, this is akin to rolling a coin and guessing when the change/reversal will happen. There are many ways to place your bets. For one, those using TA will tell you to spot the bottom by matching the chart curve, price consistency and volume. While this can be tricky, those using FA would continuously bet as the price lowers in larger gap in anticipation of the largest rebound.
There is no right or wrong here however the game the two play may contradict and give a wrong impression. Example, as the gap of the price drop increases, more FA players n traders will come in in anticipation of a rebound while the TA folks will see an increase in volume at the bottom price for the day n perceived it as trend reversal (which in their term a support price). The higher the volume at the perceived support price the better, as it is seen as tapering at the bottom.
In this situation, most of the time it maybe correct because the FA folks, traders and investors sees a steep price drop as an opportunity to buy in and in relation to the TA folk, this would be a good support. After all, the volume the buyers are willing to commit is quite fix when there is a substantial drop.

Have a thought!

Hahahaha suddenly the Burger became a mute. Ppl are usually busy when market is down down to reposition, but this fella is busy when market is up, Priority wrong again.

For those so afraid of the dark, like the Cheeseburger, better don't play the market. These r ppl who do not have a direction and need assurance fr others. Of course things will go sour, but think again who are the beneficiary in this latest turnaround.
The problem with these ppl like Burger boy, they don't believe in themselves. Those bought at 2.04 or 2.05 (fr Cheeseburger), congrats and TT who bought at 2.06 to 2.10 making 5% or more of 3.9 Million shares making RM590K in this round gracious congrats.
For Burger Boy, better luck next time...lol

Now the burger laughs because price was going down but as soon as he comments, price goes up. How lah odd keep stacking against him.

Pls pls listen to him....he predicted DEIA to complete in 2013 and was only 1 year wrong. Lol....

I am laughing because as soon as he opened his mouth the price went up.....and he wasn't even asking to buy.

When a person talk but do not know how to play, it shows....hmmmm he is very angry because they added lettuce to the burger. Hahahahaha.

Double whammy for him I supposed. Now big regret for him sold at 2.05 just went up 5%.