Really pity the novice investors/speculators. Well, the market is emotionless. But the players got to pay their tuition fees. Normally an expensive one. It seems that it is difficult to stay away from greed.

Be careful.

Volume is historical high, drop is also historical high. This is like a musical chair game, when the music stops, who will not get the seat? I believe, most buyers will lose confident in this stock, like what happen to 4 Singapore stocks. Malaysia also have its own,MNC Wireless, Solution Engrg, Industronics and VisDynamics.

I have written on this weeks ago, DSonic CA is purely for traders, speculators and gamblers. Fundamentally and theoretically, it does not worth a sen.

Finally someone wrote a one whole page in this week's Weekly - The Edge. Its premium is more than 70%. However, the premium for IOIPG CA is less than 10% and worth considering.

kt99 - if it is true, any explanation why? or you are just kidding.

Top 10 active stocks today and yesterday are penny stocks. Most are negative for yesterday and today.

1. Most analysts' buy or sell or hold call normally is based on one year horizon. Nothing wrong with that, to relook at the situation yearly ask new variables or existing variables can effect the Company.

2. For medium term investor, a more considerable horizon to look at is 3-5 years. It is very difficult to look at longer than that unless is a concessionaire of toll roads, IPPs, water, etc.

3. Best if you can spot a counter that earnings can double say in 3-5 years, and at the moment is traded half of the price. Protasco is one of them. Profit now is about RM40m. Projected to be RM80m in 2015 (the conservative analyst). Forward PE of 8 times.

4. Also not forget, this earnings should be sustainable and visible.

Similar to this, buy toll get OSV biz free (350+350m=700m), JTiasa, buy palm oil get timber concession free. Protasco, buy road maintenance get property development free.

benson911 - lets try again, @28 June 2013, 3.4m + 1.8m + 1.7m + 1.5m = 8.4m. Oops. 95% accuracy, not bad. What did you get. I went to their website, Investor Relations. Are you worry he may have sold 0.4million? I am just trying to say, even a holder of 8.4million shares, doubt he is worry. Should he think there is a major problem, he will definitely warn us.

This is a very interesting recovery stock. SILK owns about 37km ring road in Kajang. Cost about RM800 million. Not running away. Traffic growth last 4 years about 12% per year. Likely to continue for medium term. So, accounting loss is reducing yearly from 11m to 6m to positive in one or two more years. At todays market cap, it only pays for the Ring Road.

The other biz of 21 units of OSVs are given FREE with recurring income of more than RM30m. You do the maths. As when cash flow is improving (which can be seen), lower interest ail be converted into assets.

I remember someone said follow the money, when directors buy, there must be something good happening and when they sell, it must be something opposite. Hmmmm….. The directors and owners have been buying this counter, how come drop ah? Compared with Mudajaya, the IOIPG directors bought in millions……. I suppose, if the sale or purchase is significant, say 2-5% of the share capital, maybe, then it is worthwhile to monitor what's happening.

benson911 - check the annual report for 2011 and 2012. The 30 largest shareholders states the latest up to April 30 of 2012 and 2013.

Public info la bro. Check the top 30 shareholders, 2012 - 4.8m, 2013 - 8.8m.

1. Average price last 2-3 years RM2.70. Price drop to RM2.59. Dropped 11sen. Big huh ha.

2. Volume, over last few years, also from as low as 600,000 shares to 15,000,000 shares. Volume since from 1-25 April, ranges from 200,000 to 3,800,000 shares. No big deal.

3. Ex-Director Ng Ying Long sold about 600,000 early April, still owns indirectly 133 million shares. Drop in the ocean.

4. Existing directors (2 of them) sold about 200,000 each, big deal.

5. Mr Koon, owns 8,800,000 shares. Could be laughing at we guys who owns maybe 0 - 8,000 shares, sounds like the sky is falling.

Hmmm, the FFB growth looks familiar, where have I seen it before, oh… TSH Resources, FFB growth more than 20% p.a. for past few years. TSH has since moved up from RM1.60 to RM3.30 in about 3 years time. Not bad.

Hahahaha……. when I said good debate, I mean, with facts, news or information on the counter (like what is the fair value, floor price, upside, downside), not debating against each other.

Keep up the debate.

Despite all the negative news lately, we cannot deny the fact Mudajaya's shareholder's funds has increased from RM150m to RM1200m (from 2006 to 2013). I suppose Mudajaya, should make a public announcement to explain the situation, or Bursa, should at least pick up the article in whatever paper, and query Mudajaya to explain. Hmmm…...

The major concern about any counter on Bursa is FRAUD/MISAPPROPRIATION. Once investors lose confident, it takes many years to recover. Do we not know most of the negatives in Jan 2014? Wouldn't the price would have discounted all these negatives?

Not much of a trading stock. Look at it from a business angle, over a medium term, it should perform. I am taking about 50% to 100% in 3-5 years.

it needs a catalyst to move this stock. until any catalyst is announced, it is unlikely to move up. Maybe Kidex, or other major projects in Pegerang, or IPP project in Manjung or Prai or Tropicana Land. The question here is whether it is worthwhile to wait? Once the project is secured, perhaps it will be rerated. Until then, DY is about 4.5% p.a. when the price down, there will be a lot of experts, when it is up, similarly, there will be a lot of experts.

The risk mentioned by analysts at the moment all comes true.
1. delay in IPP in India
2. book order falling short of target of RM1.5b

Bottom line, no new projects, the price will be flat. Further delays on the IPP in India, not good news. The only silver lining going forward is Malaysia still have many mega projects. The price has been flat around 2.60-2.70 for last 3 years.

Hmmmm……….. they should consider Bonus issue…………….. (although no economic value to the company, but the shareholders sure love it).

The operator is playing hide and seek. Now you see me now you don't. Happen to many stocks lately. It is good especially when they plays with solid fundamental stocks like SILK, PROTASCO, HOVID, INARI etc.

Operators have been moving around and I notice lately, when the volume comes, it is more than 10 times the average volume and it disappear after one or two days. Not sure what type of game they are playing. Perhaps they create interest and want to see how much followers, if too little, they will go off. It is like testing the reaction, or playing psychology game.

A) Catalysts: 1. De Centrum GDV RM10bil (Even at GDV of RM5 billion, it contributes significantly)
2. Construction of low cost housing for the Government (RM500m project)
3. Oil and Gas acquisition of RM70m
4. Recurring road maintenance.

B) Downside risk: Lets say it drop to RM1.60 (DY is about 7.5%, on assumption that dividend is 12sen). At current price of RM1.90, DY is about 6.3%.

C) Analysts projected 2015 profits from RM80m to RM110m. At RM1.90, the market cap is RM630million. Forward PE ranges from 5.7 times to 7.9 times.

AmBank the Operator. They should show their profit and loss at the expiry of the CA. I guess, they can easily make RM30m to RM50m out of the ignorance of the players. So cool, love to be in AmBank's seat. Laughing at the players donating so much money. The higher it goes, which is very possible, the more AmBank will make.

Very good operator. Keep the game on.

So far no announcement. The Kajang Ring Road already valued more than the market capitalisation today, and you can get the 21 units of OSVs free, and is valued about RM300-400m. Both toll and OSVs have earning growth potential. Hope it drop and let more people to collect.

Be careful, this operator is better than IRIS.

LT investors - should look at minimum 3-5 years (actually some call this Medium Term, not even qualify as LT). Because the real test is actually the ability of the company to realise what it said/proposed and exceed the expectations of the investors. I notice the MD is very cautions when he said he expect 15% growth in earnings (but the analyst shown a higher growth). The trick is, can he sustain it for next 3-5 years with this kind of growth. That is a real test.

9abc - SILK, Protasco but you must learn to fish as well. You must have 3 years of horizon, buy, keep into safe deposit box, open it in 2-3 years time.

Buffett said, you cannot precisely know what a stock is worth, so leave yourself a margin of safety. Only go into things where you could be wrong to some extent and come out ok.

Normally dividend is decided on the expectation of earnings. Some company has a fixed policy, say distribute 50% of their earnings as dividend. That is step one, step two, of course, they will look at cash available and utilisation needs. Total cash after selling its treasury shares is about 56sen. They are expected to have a private placement of about RM100m another 30sen cash for capex/opex.

So, it is not a hype. Of course, end of the day is cash flow availability and earning potential. If you have excess, why not?

This is just a forum, not a place to let out steam. I hv friends who bought at around RM3.10, I didn't see him/her cursing. Veteran investors know the risk, if you cannot stomach a 30-50% downside, then share market is not your cup of tea.

Everyone have different time horizon of investing. Perhaps, those invested have 2-3 years in mind and expected it to go to RM4.00 plus? Of course, traders on this stock may lose a lot during the downturn from RM3.50 to RM2.50. Not sure what is the big fuss.

I hv friends who invested in Ecoworld at RM4.50, some think it is crazy, now, is more than RM5.00. Bottom line, if that stock have substance (earnings potential), the price will reflect it eventually, unless, it is OVERVALUED (i.e. trading at higher PE than the benchmark).

I think it's good to discuss factually of one's opinion on the stocks and experience as well, it helps both sides, just don't take it personally. Otherwise, what is the purpose of the forum. Anyway, valuation is merely for determining upside or downside. The rest are emotional. One can be confident about a share, but still, there is no 100% certainty. Remember the voting machine and weighing machine.

Agree. I do hope it drop further (say to RM1.60 and everyone can enjoy a DY of 7.5% p.a.), so more people can accumulate for dividend yield and capital gain while waiting for the growth to be realised.

There is a high chance that Protasco is giving higher dividend in 2014. Cash balance at year ended 2013 is about RM161 million + treasury shares sold in Feb 2014 RM26m = RM187 m. Dividend of 12 sen (2013 : 10 sen) is equate to about RM40m.

At today's price, at 12 sen dividend, the DY is 6.25%. It is also projected by analyst.

beLIEve : Not all are gold mine for issuer. IOIPG - CA is only 5% premium. Worth to take a look. Most who bought Dsonic hoping the price will go up to RM6.00. But they did not realise at that price, the forward PE of 38x.

Mind you, at RM6.00, technically at 20sen per CA, they only break-even. However, like i said, this is insanity. Whoever bought it, I think, they don't even realised it is like Geneva. This is not even a ponzi scheme, it is daylight con job, and many people, looking at the volume, loves it.

Have fun!!!

Exercise price + 3 (CAs) = 2.30 + 0.60 = 2.90
Today's price is RM2.75, only RM0.15 to go.

If the price exceed RM2.90, the CA price will goes up (1/3) of the mother price. Again, this is theory, because the conversion ratio is 3:1.

I think even at 20 sen, it is not high, because the premium is only 5%. Those who bought at RM0.165 is almost break-even.

Mother price is 2.75 vs Exercise Price + 3 CC

2.75 vs 3.10 + 0.165
2.75 vs 3.26

Difference 51sen premium or 18.5% (51/275) premium. What is the chances of IOIPG goes up from RM2.75 to RM3.26 in one year time. If the earnings improved as per projections, analysts TP is about RM3.90 is achievable.

Why people pay 20 sen per CA? Everyone paying for a HOPE. This HOPE is pretty expensive and not likely to happen. You need to buy 6 CAs = RM1.20 and the Exercise Price is RM3.72, total is RM4.92.

AmBank will pay you 8 sen, if the price when due is RM5.00. While you pay RM1.20, your return is only 8 sen, and the mother share price has to go up from today's price of RM2.80 to RM5.00 in less than one year. (I would rather buy the mother share, provided it is undervalued say RM1.20)

You can only break-even (paying 120sen) if the share price goes to RM5.92 (5.92 - 3.72 = 1.20). Well, the market is inefficient, but this, I think participants are taken for a ride, and AmBank just laughing now. Selling paper (CA) and get free money.

Guess what, AmBank will use the money to buy the Mother share now. Thanks to all the donors. Market is not all the time rationale, don't waste time thinking about it. Frankly, I think CA is a gold mine for the Issuer, just issue paper.

Bursa should warn investors, especially on the CAs and traded at such high volume and premium. I guess some likes to pay "tuition fees" even though the lesson is free. No wonder the moms always tell their children, make sure you maths is good, not I know, it's really important. Although it is only about RM1.8 million transacted, how I hope those people could donate the money to the less fortunate instead of given it to the "rich" bankers, driving BMWs and wearing "Armani". Sighh…………….

The last I checked, bonus or split, is merely slicing the same pie into smaller pieces. It did not add any economic value to a company. Pls double check with the investment bankers.

@redwed. I think you misunderstood what I have written. What I said is, a good long term investment, if you pay RMxxx TODAY, and you are confident over the next 2-5 years, it will provide a compounding 12-15% p.a. What is so misleading about this. ??

Bursa is sleeping on their job. At least warn the public. Do a table for all the CAs, and show their premium. This table must be shown daily. Then up to the public (don't say it is under or ver value), Just show the premium or discount (if any). Some says sharing is caring.

GOOD long term investment is when the share is UNDERVALUED by say 50% and no one cares and able to double your money in 2-5 years. This is called good long term investment. So, the question is, can this stock double at today's price, in 2-5 years?

Good long term investment gives a compounding return of (12%-15%p.a.). Btw, there are not many good long term investment around.

Sorry, on item 3. CA holder is paying 66% premium (4.98-3.00/3). Is it worth or not? You only break even when the mother price goes up to RM4.98 in less than a year. Pls do the maths. They are simply to many "ignorant' players out there, worst than Geneva.

1.Exercise Price + 6CA COMPARE with Market Price

2. 3.72 + 6 (0.21) = RM4.98 vs Market price of say, RM3.00

3. CA holder is paying 66% today.

4. The market price need to reach RM4.98, only then the CA worth RM0.21

5. Too many innocent people buying the CA not knowing how to calculate, throwing money into the ocean, AmBank will be laughing to the bank.

6. For discussion only (only happen in theory). First find out the most conservative price of the stock (say PE of 10x for future earnings). For discussion only, say it is worth RM1.60 + 6 (CA) = RM1.60 + 1.26 = RM2.86.

7. Working backward, it is only worth buying CA at 21sen, if the mother price is RM1.60.

8. However pay for it even at 0.5sen, is over paying, because the Exercise Price is RM3.72 and the mother share today say around RM3.00.

9. Why are so many players don't know the basic and still participate. Very unfortunate. AmBank being the issuer, will make tonnes from this players.

Exercise price 2.30 + 3(0.20) = RM2.90 vs Mother price RM2.74 (a premium of RM0.16 for up to January 2015 or 8 months). If within 8 months if mother shares goes to RM3.20, this CA should worth at least 30sen. Depends on the timing it reaches RM3.20. If it reach it by June, then it should be traded at a premium at 40sen to 60sen.

When mother shares at 3.72, this CA is worth zero. Now the mother is RM2.90, it should worth about negative 14sen. Since CA cannot be sold at negative, the lowest would be RM0.005 or 0.5sen. So, if tomorrow the mother shares remains below 3.00, theoretically it should drop another 18.5 sen.

This stock has came down almost RM1.3 billion from its peak at RM4.80.

That is a lot. The first drop on 4 April from RM4.60 to RM3.60. Today dropped from RM3.60 to RM2.90. It is unfortunate that it always the retailers got burned. I wonder who is the operator/banker here.

So, retailers are in another dilemma. To sell or not to sell. Until one knows the floor price, one will not be able to answer this question. The sad part is, no one seems to know what is happening.