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News & Blogs
2022-09-11 15:56 | Report Abuse
moral of the story....suspect veli penting mah!
Cautious very important mah!
Dulu Serba....olang pun suspect only meh ?
Apa macam sekarang ??
Stock
Watchlist
2022-09-11 15:53 |
Post removed.Why?
News & Blogs
News & Blogs
2022-09-11 15:50 | Report Abuse
Ini Info baru mah!
Lu tau boh ?
ACCORDING RAIDER SIFU SENIOR ANALYST & CONFIRMED BY 009 INVESTIGATION TEAM, THEY HAVE INFO TO SUSPECT , THAT THE COUNTER PARTY IS A PRIVATE CHINESE PARTY OPERATING IN SPORE WHO HAVE A VERY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE HENGYUAN CHINA OWNER LOH!
Stock
2022-09-11 15:50 | Report Abuse
Ini Info baru mah!
Lu tau boh ?
ACCORDING RAIDER SIFU SENIOR ANALYST & CONFIRMED BY 009 INVESTIGATION TEAM, THEY HAVE INFO TO SUSPECT , THAT THE COUNTER PARTY IS A PRIVATE CHINESE PARTY OPERATING IN SPORE WHO HAVE A VERY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE HENGYUAN CHINA OWNER LOH!
Stock
2022-09-11 15:50 | Report Abuse
Ini Info baru mah!
Lu tau boh ?
ACCORDING RAIDER SIFU SENIOR ANALYST & CONFIRMED BY 009 INVESTIGATION TEAM, THEY HAVE INFO TO SUSPECT , THAT THE COUNTER PARTY IS A PRIVATE CHINESE PARTY OPERATING IN SPORE WHO HAVE A VERY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE HENGYUAN CHINA OWNER LOH!
Watchlist
2022-09-11 15:49 | Report Abuse
Ini Info baru mah!
Lu tau boh ?
ACCORDING RAIDER SIFU SENIOR ANALYST & CONFIRMED BY 009 INVESTIGATION TEAM, THEY HAVE INFO TO SUSPECT , THAT THE COUNTER PARTY IS A PRIVATE CHINESE PARTY OPERATING IN SPORE WHO HAVE A VERY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE HENGYUAN CHINA OWNER LOH!
News & Blogs
2022-09-11 15:47 | Report Abuse
U ALA DENGAR BAIK BAIK KA ?
HENGYUAN MENANG MANYAK MANYAK...ON HEDGING....TAPI OLANG TAK BAYAR ...HOW ?
Watchlist
2022-09-11 15:47 | Report Abuse
U ALA DENGAR BAIK BAIK KA ?
HENGYUAN MENANG MANYAK MANYAK...ON HEDGING....TAPI OLANG TAK BAYAR ...HOW ?
Stock
2022-09-11 15:47 | Report Abuse
U ALA DENGAR BAIK BAIK KA ?
HENGYUAN MENANG MANYAK MANYAK...ON HEDGING....TAPI OLANG TAK BAYAR ...HOW ?
Stock
2022-09-11 15:46 | Report Abuse
U ALA DENGAR BAIK BAIK KA ?
HENGYUAN MENANG MANYAK MANYAK...ON HEDGING....TAPI OLANG TAK BAYAR ...HOW ?
Stock
2022-09-11 15:43 | Report Abuse
PAKAI OTAK LAH!
THE COUNTER PARTY....DO NOT WANT TO HONOR....THE PRIVATE REFINING SWAP CONTRACT...IF IT LOSE ALOT OF MONIES TO HENGYUAN MAH!
THIS IS THE RISK MAH!
LU TAU BOH ?
Stock
2022-09-11 15:43 | Report Abuse
PAKAI OTAK LAH!
THE COUNTER PARTY....DO NOT WANT TO HONOR....THE PRIVATE REFINING SWAP CONTRACT...IF IT LOSE ALOT OF MONIES TO HENGYUAN MAH!
THIS IS THE RISK MAH!
LU TAU BOH ?
Watchlist
2022-09-11 15:43 | Report Abuse
PAKAI OTAK LAH!
THE COUNTER PARTY....DO NOT WANT TO HONOR....THE PRIVATE REFINING SWAP CONTRACT...IF IT LOSE ALOT OF MONIES TO HENGYUAN MAH!
THIS IS THE RISK MAH!
LU TAU BOH ?
News & Blogs
2022-09-11 15:42 | Report Abuse
PAKAI OTAK LAH!
THE COUNTER PARTY....DO NOT WANT TO HONOR....THE PRIVATE REFINING SWAP CONTRACT...IF IT LOSE ALOT OF MONIES TO HENGYUAN MAH!
THIS IS THE RISK MAH!
LU TAU BOH ?
Stock
2022-09-11 15:39 | Report Abuse
REMEMBER THE COUNTER PARTY CAN JUST WALK OUT, IF LOSE THE HEDGING BACK AGAINST HENGYUAN MAH!
PAKAI OTAK LAH! NO RISK MEH ?
NO RISK MEH ?
Why need to be very careful with "Private Refining Margin Swap" ?
Even in the event, we are highly successful with the trade and make billions- The Private Counter Party....can simply just default and nothing we can do loh!
The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!
Posted by probability > 59 seconds ago | Report Abuse
what risk leh?..that was FORECASTED loss end of June 22 mah!!
now the risk already disappear lorr...
now FORECASTED GAIN liao...
Watchlist
2022-09-11 15:39 | Report Abuse
REMEMBER THE COUNTER PARTY CAN JUST WALK OUT, IF LOSE THE HEDGING BACK AGAINST HENGYUAN MAH!
PAKAI OTAK LAH! NO RISK MEH ?
NO RISK MEH ?
Why need to be very careful with "Private Refining Margin Swap" ?
Even in the event, we are highly successful with the trade and make billions- The Private Counter Party....can simply just default and nothing we can do loh!
The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!
Posted by probability > 59 seconds ago | Report Abuse
what risk leh?..that was FORECASTED loss end of June 22 mah!!
now the risk already disappear lorr...
now FORECASTED GAIN liao...
News & Blogs
2022-09-11 15:38 | Report Abuse
REMEMBER THE COUNTER PARTY CAN JUST WALK OUT, IF LOSE THE HEDGING BACK AGAINST HENGYUAN MAH!
PAKAI OTAK LAH! NO RISK MEH ?
NO RISK MEH ?
Why need to be very careful with "Private Refining Margin Swap" ?
Even in the event, we are highly successful with the trade and make billions- The Private Counter Party....can simply just default and nothing we can do loh!
The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!
Posted by probability > 59 seconds ago | Report Abuse
what risk leh?..that was FORECASTED loss end of June 22 mah!!
now the risk already disappear lorr...
now FORECASTED GAIN liao...
Stock
2022-09-11 15:38 | Report Abuse
REMEMBER THE COUNTER PARTY CAN JUST WALK OUT, IF LOSE THE HEDGING BACK AGAINST HENGYUAN MAH!
PAKAI OTAK LAH! NO RISK MEH ?
NO RISK MEH ?
Why need to be very careful with "Private Refining Margin Swap" ?
Even in the event, we are highly successful with the trade and make billions- The Private Counter Party....can simply just default and nothing we can do loh!
The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!
Posted by probability > 59 seconds ago | Report Abuse
what risk leh?..that was FORECASTED loss end of June 22 mah!!
now the risk already disappear lorr...
now FORECASTED GAIN liao...
General
2022-09-11 15:35 | Report Abuse
Khairy should leave UMNO loh!
There is no place for Khairy in current UMNO set up mah!
Stock
2022-09-11 15:33 | Report Abuse
Ya how do u handle the high risk highlighted below leh ?
Why need to be very careful with "Private Refining Margin Swap" ?
Even in the event, we are highly successful with the trade and make billions- The Private Counter Party....can simply just default and nothing we can do loh!
The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!
Posted by stockraider > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse
Just becareful loh!
The Hedging is done thru a Private Refining Margin Swap....thru a chinese counter party in SPORE loh!
It is one to one bets loh!
Be very careful mah!
Posted by probability > 2 seconds ago | Report Abuse
ALREADY EXPLAINED how the derivative loss figure in OCI comes about mah!!
NEED A FUNCTIONING BRAIN TO UNDERSTAND Lorrr!!!
..................
Hengyuan had hedged 18 million barrels at avg 12.7 USD/brl refining margin to be effected as it matures at the rate of 0.8 million barrels per month. This is mainly for gasoline.
This is indicated by the Refining margin Swap contract (RMSC) of USS 226 million as can be seen on their financial report.
USD 226 million = USD 18 million x USD 12.7/brl
The fair value changes with respect to the hedged value are reflected under Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) using Cash flow Hedge and Cost of hedging reserve as per IFRS 9:
These are basically forecasted derivative loss against mark-to-market margin in future as of 30th June.
....................
Since the market margin (in futures) as of 30 June 22 was extraordinarily high at $ 32/brl. The expected hedging losses for gasoline going forward was high and reported accordingly.
Hedging loss:
(hedged margin - spot margin) x hedged barrels
= (12.7 USD/brl - avg 32 USD/brl) x 18 million barrels
= - USD 347 million
= - 1.5 Billion MYR
This is not a real loss, but expected 'ópportunity loss' due to hedging and thats why it is not reported in P&L.
The above forecasted losses when occurs in future, it is accompanied by greater gross margin where after offsetting these losses, it will deliver the profit margin in P&L as per the original hedge value of 12.7 USD/brl
As such, these forecasted loss done at end of each financial report would over-turn completely when gasoline margin dives down..
Refer below link which is presently showing $ 5.2/brl in Sep 2022 to $ 4.3 /brl in Dec 2023.
At end of June it was showing avg $ 32/brl
News & Blogs
2022-09-11 15:32 | Report Abuse
Ya how do u handle the high risk highlighted below leh ?
Why need to be very careful with "Private Refining Margin Swap" ?
Even in the event, we are highly successful with the trade and make billions- The Private Counter Party....can simply just default and nothing we can do loh!
The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!
Posted by stockraider > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse
Just becareful loh!
The Hedging is done thru a Private Refining Margin Swap....thru a chinese counter party in SPORE loh!
It is one to one bets loh!
Be very careful mah!
Posted by probability > 2 seconds ago | Report Abuse
ALREADY EXPLAINED how the derivative loss figure in OCI comes about mah!!
NEED A FUNCTIONING BRAIN TO UNDERSTAND Lorrr!!!
..................
Hengyuan had hedged 18 million barrels at avg 12.7 USD/brl refining margin to be effected as it matures at the rate of 0.8 million barrels per month. This is mainly for gasoline.
This is indicated by the Refining margin Swap contract (RMSC) of USS 226 million as can be seen on their financial report.
USD 226 million = USD 18 million x USD 12.7/brl
The fair value changes with respect to the hedged value are reflected under Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) using Cash flow Hedge and Cost of hedging reserve as per IFRS 9:
These are basically forecasted derivative loss against mark-to-market margin in future as of 30th June.
....................
Since the market margin (in futures) as of 30 June 22 was extraordinarily high at $ 32/brl. The expected hedging losses for gasoline going forward was high and reported accordingly.
Hedging loss:
(hedged margin - spot margin) x hedged barrels
= (12.7 USD/brl - avg 32 USD/brl) x 18 million barrels
= - USD 347 million
= - 1.5 Billion MYR
This is not a real loss, but expected 'ópportunity loss' due to hedging and thats why it is not reported in P&L.
The above forecasted losses when occurs in future, it is accompanied by greater gross margin where after offsetting these losses, it will deliver the profit margin in P&L as per the original hedge value of 12.7 USD/brl
As such, these forecasted loss done at end of each financial report would over-turn completely when gasoline margin dives down..
Refer below link which is presently showing $ 5.2/brl in Sep 2022 to $ 4.3 /brl in Dec 2023.
At end of June it was showing avg $ 32/brl
Watchlist
2022-09-11 15:32 | Report Abuse
Ya how do u handle the high risk highlighted below leh ?
Why need to be very careful with "Private Refining Margin Swap" ?
Even in the event, we are highly successful with the trade and make billions- The Private Counter Party....can simply just default and nothing we can do loh!
The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!
Posted by stockraider > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse
Just becareful loh!
The Hedging is done thru a Private Refining Margin Swap....thru a chinese counter party in SPORE loh!
It is one to one bets loh!
Be very careful mah!
Posted by probability > 2 seconds ago | Report Abuse
ALREADY EXPLAINED how the derivative loss figure in OCI comes about mah!!
NEED A FUNCTIONING BRAIN TO UNDERSTAND Lorrr!!!
..................
Hengyuan had hedged 18 million barrels at avg 12.7 USD/brl refining margin to be effected as it matures at the rate of 0.8 million barrels per month. This is mainly for gasoline.
This is indicated by the Refining margin Swap contract (RMSC) of USS 226 million as can be seen on their financial report.
USD 226 million = USD 18 million x USD 12.7/brl
The fair value changes with respect to the hedged value are reflected under Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) using Cash flow Hedge and Cost of hedging reserve as per IFRS 9:
These are basically forecasted derivative loss against mark-to-market margin in future as of 30th June.
....................
Since the market margin (in futures) as of 30 June 22 was extraordinarily high at $ 32/brl. The expected hedging losses for gasoline going forward was high and reported accordingly.
Hedging loss:
(hedged margin - spot margin) x hedged barrels
= (12.7 USD/brl - avg 32 USD/brl) x 18 million barrels
= - USD 347 million
= - 1.5 Billion MYR
This is not a real loss, but expected 'ópportunity loss' due to hedging and thats why it is not reported in P&L.
The above forecasted losses when occurs in future, it is accompanied by greater gross margin where after offsetting these losses, it will deliver the profit margin in P&L as per the original hedge value of 12.7 USD/brl
As such, these forecasted loss done at end of each financial report would over-turn completely when gasoline margin dives down..
Refer below link which is presently showing $ 5.2/brl in Sep 2022 to $ 4.3 /brl in Dec 2023.
At end of June it was showing avg $ 32/brl
Stock
2022-09-11 15:31 | Report Abuse
Ya how do u handle the high risk highlighted below leh ?
Why need to be very careful with "Private Refining Margin Swap" ?
Even in the event, we are highly successful with the trade and make billions- The Private Counter Party....can simply just default and nothing we can do loh!
The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!
Posted by stockraider > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse
Just becareful loh!
The Hedging is done thru a Private Refining Margin Swap....thru a chinese counter party in SPORE loh!
It is one to one bets loh!
Be very careful mah!
Posted by probability > 2 seconds ago | Report Abuse
ALREADY EXPLAINED how the derivative loss figure in OCI comes about mah!!
NEED A FUNCTIONING BRAIN TO UNDERSTAND Lorrr!!!
..................
Hengyuan had hedged 18 million barrels at avg 12.7 USD/brl refining margin to be effected as it matures at the rate of 0.8 million barrels per month. This is mainly for gasoline.
This is indicated by the Refining margin Swap contract (RMSC) of USS 226 million as can be seen on their financial report.
USD 226 million = USD 18 million x USD 12.7/brl
The fair value changes with respect to the hedged value are reflected under Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) using Cash flow Hedge and Cost of hedging reserve as per IFRS 9:
These are basically forecasted derivative loss against mark-to-market margin in future as of 30th June.
....................
Since the market margin (in futures) as of 30 June 22 was extraordinarily high at $ 32/brl. The expected hedging losses for gasoline going forward was high and reported accordingly.
Hedging loss:
(hedged margin - spot margin) x hedged barrels
= (12.7 USD/brl - avg 32 USD/brl) x 18 million barrels
= - USD 347 million
= - 1.5 Billion MYR
This is not a real loss, but expected 'ópportunity loss' due to hedging and thats why it is not reported in P&L.
The above forecasted losses when occurs in future, it is accompanied by greater gross margin where after offsetting these losses, it will deliver the profit margin in P&L as per the original hedge value of 12.7 USD/brl
As such, these forecasted loss done at end of each financial report would over-turn completely when gasoline margin dives down..
Refer below link which is presently showing $ 5.2/brl in Sep 2022 to $ 4.3 /brl in Dec 2023.
At end of June it was showing avg $ 32/brl
link:
News & Blogs
2022-09-11 15:27 | Report Abuse
Why need to be very careful with "Private Refining Margin Swap" ?
Even in the event, we are highly successful with the trade and make billions- The Private Counter Party....can simply just default and nothing we can do loh!
The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!
Posted by stockraider > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse
Just becareful loh!
The Hedging is done thru a Private Refining Margin Swap....thru a chinese counter party in SPORE loh!
It is one to one bets loh!
Be very careful mah!
Watchlist
2022-09-11 15:26 | Report Abuse
Why need to be very careful with "Private Refining Margin Swap" ?
Even in the event, we are highly successful with the trade and make billions- The Private Counter Party....can simply just default and nothing we can do loh!
The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!
Posted by stockraider > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse
Just becareful loh!
The Hedging is done thru a Private Refining Margin Swap....thru a chinese counter party in SPORE loh!
It is one to one bets loh!
Be very careful mah!
Stock
2022-09-11 15:26 | Report Abuse
Why need to be very careful with "Private Refining Margin Swap" ?
Even in the event, we are highly successful with the trade and make billions- The Private Counter Party....can simply just default and nothing we can do loh!
The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!
Posted by stockraider > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse
Just becareful loh!
The Hedging is done thru a Private Refining Margin Swap....thru a chinese counter party in SPORE loh!
It is one to one bets loh!
Be very careful mah!
Stock
2022-09-11 15:25 | Report Abuse
Why need to be very careful with "Private Refining Margin Swap" ?
Even in the event, we are highly successful with the trade and make billions- The Private Counter Party....can simply just default and nothing we can do loh!
The huge sum of money, that Hengyuan is betting...to tune of Rm 1.3 billion losses, is just ridiculous mah!
Posted by stockraider > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse
Just becareful loh!
The Hedging is done thru a Private Refining Margin Swap....thru a chinese counter party in SPORE loh!
It is one to one bets loh!
Be very careful mah!
Stock
2022-09-11 15:15 | Report Abuse
Just becareful loh!
The Hedging is done thru a Private Refining Margin Swap....thru a chinese counter party in SPORE loh!
It is one to one bets loh!
Be very careful mah!
Watchlist
2022-09-11 15:15 | Report Abuse
Just becareful loh!
The Hedging is done thru a Private Refining Margin Swap....thru a chinese counter party in SPORE loh!
It is one to one bets loh!
Be very careful mah!
Stock
2022-09-11 15:14 | Report Abuse
Just becareful loh!
The Hedging is done thru a Private Refining Margin Swap....thru a chinese counter party in SPORE loh!
It is one to one bets loh!
Be very careful mah!
News & Blogs
2022-09-11 15:14 | Report Abuse
Just becareful loh!
The Hedging is done thru a Private Refining Margin Swap....thru a chinese counter party in SPORE loh!
It is one to one bets loh!
Be very careful mah!
Watchlist
2022-09-11 15:08 | Report Abuse
Lets play dumb & assume naively SSLEE & PROBABILITY use their computation is going to work & Raider can be billionaire if can use their hedging model disciplinary and steadily below loh!
If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!
If that is highly successful....Raider will become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!
The Virtual Refinery own by raider will Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it...& sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit on paper when doing its hedge...the same hedge can be done...vice versa when crude is selling at a premium to Diesel & Petrol loh!
With this model Raider effectively do not really need a refinery mah!
Just by using the hedging....Raider can do the trick of making money without any need of any refinery mah!
BUT LETS FACE IT LOH....IT IS NOT SO SIMPLE IN REAL LIFE LOH!
The truth it is not true mah!
The deal done ....is actual speculative & unsustainable... despite fully hedge loh!
The situation & dynamics.. does not applies only to CRUDE & Petroleum mkt...but will apply to every commodity like Palmoil, Soyabean Oil, Metal etc loh!
U can do it on paper & completely hedge on paper with a reasonable profit....but the end, it still did not make money loh!
Thats is the reasons why....NOBLE & Hin Leong....2 large listed company in singapore dealing with trading of commodities go bankrupt despite having all the capital, software & resources to support its trade loh!
I think sifu like SSLEE & Probability are just naive....by claiming a fully hedge position will make monies loh!
That is the reasons why ESSO & Shell refuse to do hedging loh!
Also that is the reasons why hengyuan registered a huge unrealised hedging losses on its derivative loh!
Beside this risk of raider fear of siphoning money loh!
HEDGING....RAIDER NEED TO UPDATE U LOH!
THE HEDGING TRADE THAT HENGYUAN HAS DONE IS NOT REALLY DONE PROFESSIONALLY & SAFELY LIKE WHAT RAIDER HAD DONE FOLLOWING THRU REPUTABLE MKT LIKE NYMEX or CME LOH!
THE HENGYUAN REFINING MARGIN SWAP IS FLOW THRU ONE COUNTER PARTY AGENT IN SINGAPORE LOH!
ACTUALLY THERE IS NO REFINING MARGIN SWAP AVAILABLE IN THE REPUTABLE MKT LIKE IN NYMEX OR CME MAH!
IT IS JUST AN ARRANGEMENT BETWEEN HENGYUAN WITH A PRIVATE PARTY LOH!
THUS THIS TYPE OF DEALS WILL HAVE MUCH LESS ASSURANCE & IT CAN BE AN EASY DEVICE FOR SIPHONING CASH- THIS TYPE OF DEAL CAN BE EASILY STRUCTURED MAH!
THUS WE SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL WITH THIS TYPE UNCONVENTIONAL PRIVATE REFINING MARGIN SWAP LOH!
ACCORDING RAIDER SIFU SENIOR ANALYST & CONFIRMED BY 009 INVESTIGATION TEAM, THEY HAVE INFO TO SUSPECT , THAT THE COUNTER PARTY IS A PRIVATE CHINESE PARTY OPERATING IN SPORE WHO HAVE A VERY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE HENGYUAN CHINA OWNER LOH!
News & Blogs
2022-09-11 15:06 | Report Abuse
If MUDA wants to join....it should be on Harapan terms mah!
It will be slightly positive if MUDA can join Harapan....but it will not be the end if Muda did not or cannot join loh!
News & Blogs
2022-09-11 15:00 | Report Abuse
Lets play dumb & assume naively SSLEE & PROBABILITY use their computation is going to work & Raider can be billionaire if can use their hedging model disciplinary and steadily below loh!
If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!
If that is highly successful....Raider will become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!
The Virtual Refinery own by raider will Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it...& sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit on paper when doing its hedge...the same hedge can be done...vice versa when crude is selling at a premium to Diesel & Petrol loh!
With this model Raider effectively do not really need a refinery mah!
Just by using the hedging....Raider can do the trick of making money without any need of any refinery mah!
BUT LETS FACE IT LOH....IT IS NOT SO SIMPLE IN REAL LIFE LOH!
The truth it is not true mah!
The deal done ....is actual speculative & unsustainable... despite fully hedge loh!
The situation & dynamics.. does not applies only to CRUDE & Petroleum mkt...but will apply to every commodity like Palmoil, Soyabean Oil, Metal etc loh!
U can do it on paper & completely hedge on paper with a reasonable profit....but the end, it still did not make money loh!
Thats is the reasons why....NOBLE & Hin Leong....2 large listed company in singapore dealing with trading of commodities go bankrupt despite having all the capital, software & resources to support its trade loh!
I think sifu like SSLEE & Probability are just naive....by claiming a fully hedge position will make monies loh!
That is the reasons why ESSO & Shell refuse to do hedging loh!
Also that is the reasons why hengyuan registered a huge unrealised hedging losses on its derivative loh!
Beside this risk of raider fear of siphoning money loh!
HEDGING....RAIDER NEED TO UPDATE U LOH!
THE HEDGING TRADE THAT HENGYUAN HAS DONE IS NOT REALLY DONE PROFESSIONALLY & SAFELY LIKE WHAT RAIDER HAD DONE FOLLOWING THRU REPUTABLE MKT LIKE NYMEX or CME LOH!
THE HENGYUAN REFINING MARGIN SWAP IS FLOW THRU ONE COUNTER PARTY AGENT IN SINGAPORE LOH!
ACTUALLY THERE IS NO REFINING MARGIN SWAP AVAILABLE IN THE REPUTABLE MKT LIKE IN NYMEX OR CME MAH!
IT IS JUST AN ARRANGEMENT BETWEEN HENGYUAN WITH A PRIVATE PARTY LOH!
THUS THIS TYPE OF DEALS WILL HAVE MUCH LESS ASSURANCE & IT CAN BE AN EASY DEVICE FOR SIPHONING CASH- THIS TYPE OF DEAL CAN BE EASILY STRUCTURED MAH!
THUS WE SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL WITH THIS TYPE UNCONVENTIONAL PRIVATE REFINING MARGIN SWAP LOH!
ACCORDING RAIDER SIFU SENIOR ANALYST & CONFIRMED BY 009 INVESTIGATION TEAM, THEY HAVE INFO TO SUSPECT , THAT THE COUNTER PARTY IS A PRIVATE CHINESE PARTY OPERATING IN SPORE WHO HAVE A VERY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE HENGYUAN CHINA OWNER LOH!
JUST BE VERY CAREFUL WITH REFINING MARGIN SWAP LOH!
Stock
2022-09-11 14:59 | Report Abuse
Lets play dumb & assume naively SSLEE & PROBABILITY use their computation is going to work & Raider can be billionaire if can use their hedging model disciplinary and steadily below loh!
If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!
If that is highly successful....Raider will become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!
The Virtual Refinery own by raider will Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it...& sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit on paper when doing its hedge...the same hedge can be done...vice versa when crude is selling at a premium to Diesel & Petrol loh!
With this model Raider effectively do not really need a refinery mah!
Just by using the hedging....Raider can do the trick of making money without any need of any refinery mah!
BUT LETS FACE IT LOH....IT IS NOT SO SIMPLE IN REAL LIFE LOH!
The truth it is not true mah!
The deal done ....is actual speculative & unsustainable... despite fully hedge loh!
The situation & dynamics.. does not applies only to CRUDE & Petroleum mkt...but will apply to every commodity like Palmoil, Soyabean Oil, Metal etc loh!
U can do it on paper & completely hedge on paper with a reasonable profit....but the end, it still did not make money loh!
Thats is the reasons why....NOBLE & Hin Leong....2 large listed company in singapore dealing with trading of commodities go bankrupt despite having all the capital, software & resources to support its trade loh!
I think sifu like SSLEE & Probability are just naive....by claiming a fully hedge position will make monies loh!
That is the reasons why ESSO & Shell refuse to do hedging loh!
Also that is the reasons why hengyuan registered a huge unrealised hedging losses on its derivative loh!
Beside this risk of raider fear of siphoning money loh!
HEDGING....RAIDER NEED TO UPDATE U LOH!
THE HEDGING TRADE THAT HENGYUAN HAS DONE IS NOT REALLY DONE PROFESSIONALLY & SAFELY LIKE WHAT RAIDER HAD DONE FOLLOWING THRU REPUTABLE MKT LIKE NYMEX or CME LOH!
THE HENGYUAN REFINING MARGIN SWAP IS FLOW THRU ONE COUNTER PARTY AGENT IN SINGAPORE LOH!
ACTUALLY THERE IS NO REFINING MARGIN SWAP AVAILABLE IN THE REPUTABLE MKT LIKE IN NYMEX OR CME MAH!
IT IS JUST AN ARRANGEMENT BETWEEN HENGYUAN WITH A PRIVATE PARTY LOH!
THUS THIS TYPE OF DEALS WILL HAVE MUCH LESS ASSURANCE & IT CAN BE AN EASY DEVICE FOR SIPHONING CASH- THIS TYPE OF DEAL CAN BE EASILY STRUCTURED MAH!
THUS WE SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL WITH THIS TYPE UNCONVENTIONAL PRIVATE REFINING MARGIN SWAP LOH!
ACCORDING RAIDER SIFU SENIOR ANALYST & CONFIRMED BY 009 INVESTIGATION TEAM, THEY HAVE INFO TO SUSPECT , THAT THE COUNTER PARTY IS A PRIVATE CHINESE PARTY OPERATING IN SPORE WHO HAVE A VERY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE HENGYUAN CHINA OWNER LOH!
JUST BE VERY CAREFUL WITH REFINING MARGIN SWAP LOH!
Stock
2022-09-11 14:59 | Report Abuse
Lets play dumb & assume naively SSLEE & PROBABILITY use their computation is going to work & Raider can be billionaire if can use their hedging model disciplinary and steadily below loh!
If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!
If that is highly successful....Raider will become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!
The Virtual Refinery own by raider will Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it...& sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit on paper when doing its hedge...the same hedge can be done...vice versa when crude is selling at a premium to Diesel & Petrol loh!
With this model Raider effectively do not really need a refinery mah!
Just by using the hedging....Raider can do the trick of making money without any need of any refinery mah!
BUT LETS FACE IT LOH....IT IS NOT SO SIMPLE IN REAL LIFE LOH!
The truth it is not true mah!
The deal done ....is actual speculative & unsustainable... despite fully hedge loh!
The situation & dynamics.. does not applies only to CRUDE & Petroleum mkt...but will apply to every commodity like Palmoil, Soyabean Oil, Metal etc loh!
U can do it on paper & completely hedge on paper with a reasonable profit....but the end, it still did not make money loh!
Thats is the reasons why....NOBLE & Hin Leong....2 large listed company in singapore dealing with trading of commodities go bankrupt despite having all the capital, software & resources to support its trade loh!
I think sifu like SSLEE & Probability are just naive....by claiming a fully hedge position will make monies loh!
That is the reasons why ESSO & Shell refuse to do hedging loh!
Also that is the reasons why hengyuan registered a huge unrealised hedging losses on its derivative loh!
Beside this risk of raider fear of siphoning money loh!
HEDGING....RAIDER NEED TO UPDATE U LOH!
THE HEDGING TRADE THAT HENGYUAN HAS DONE IS NOT REALLY DONE PROFESSIONALLY & SAFELY LIKE WHAT RAIDER HAD DONE FOLLOWING THRU REPUTABLE MKT LIKE NYMEX or CME LOH!
THE HENGYUAN REFINING MARGIN SWAP IS FLOW THRU ONE COUNTER PARTY AGENT IN SINGAPORE LOH!
ACTUALLY THERE IS NO REFINING MARGIN SWAP AVAILABLE IN THE REPUTABLE MKT LIKE IN NYMEX OR CME MAH!
IT IS JUST AN ARRANGEMENT BETWEEN HENGYUAN WITH A PRIVATE PARTY LOH!
THUS THIS TYPE OF DEALS WILL HAVE MUCH LESS ASSURANCE & IT CAN BE AN EASY DEVICE FOR SIPHONING CASH- THIS TYPE OF DEAL CAN BE EASILY STRUCTURED MAH!
THUS WE SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL WITH THIS TYPE UNCONVENTIONAL PRIVATE REFINING MARGIN SWAP LOH!
ACCORDING RAIDER SIFU SENIOR ANALYST & CONFIRMED BY 009 INVESTIGATION TEAM, THEY HAVE INFO TO SUSPECT , THAT THE COUNTER PARTY IS A PRIVATE CHINESE PARTY OPERATING IN SPORE WHO HAVE A VERY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE HENGYUAN CHINA OWNER LOH!
JUST BE VERY CAREFUL WITH REFINING MARGIN SWAP LOH!
Watchlist
2022-09-11 14:21 | Report Abuse
Understanding why Prominent Previous Refinery Owner in Msia like Shell & Esso do not do hedging ?
1.The traditional business model of hardcore refinery are simple loh!
They buy physical crude & refine it to physical petrol & diesel and sell at price base on formula with reference to Crude Price, Exchange Rate & Crack Spread fixed by Msia Govt and make money mah!
They do not do fwd hedging n their natural hedge is the inventory they have in hand & their refinery to quickly efficiently process the crude to mainly Petrol & Diesel & quickly sell base on the fixed formula the msia Govt had set loh!
Now with the introduction of Hengyuan, it has modified the refinery model as follows loh!
1. Traditional Refinery Business Model as highlighted above.
2. Virtual Refinery Business Model using Paper Derivative as an investment & hedge to generate profit to be discussed below loh:
2.Virtual Refinery Business model thru pure hedging & derivative loh!
Do u notice that Hengyuan lose alot of monies consistently most of the time despite, mathematical computation on paper the derivative & hedge is highly profitable as per feedback of SSLEE and Probability leh ?
This is bcos the paper computation derivative & hedge shows profit do not reflect the reality situation & business dynamics of the trade loh! Reasons are as follows loh:
The Virtual Refinery Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit when doing its hedge but how come this trade fail & registered big losses at the end leh ?
1. The mkt is very dynamic loh! On paper u may see big virtual profit by hedging future crude purchase & future sell of petrol & diesel end products....but when time come for settlement in turnout to be a loss loh!
Why leh the complete hedge trade of buying & selling here cannot convert to a easy profit, like paper indicated leh ?
a. This is bcos the movement of future crude purchase price, do not completely correlate to the selling future price of petrol & diesel price due to huge mkt volatility mah! Just within a day the business dynamic may change loh! Like within 1 day the Crude Price go up 10% whereas the Petrol & Diesel selling future price did not move at all or vice versa loh!
b. The trade initiated are pure paper swap with no delivery of physical goods, thats why it may not reflect the real dynamic of a real physical refinery mah!
c. Even it involve actual delivery of the commodities, there are extra cost & logistic to bring this commodities for processing to convert it to a profit mah!
d. Thus the virtual refinery of Hengyuan business model has shown consistent losses bcos of this challenges discussed above loh!
REMEMBER WHAT RAIDER SAY ABOVE LOH!
A REFINERY BUSINESS LIKE HENGYUAN DO NOT REALLY NEED A HEDGING BUSINESS MODEL AS WELL.
IN HENGYUAN CASE.....THEY EVEN OVER DO IT....EXPOSING IT WITH A HUGE MASSIVE HEDGING LOSSES TODATE OF RM 1.3B LOH!
WHO IN THE RIGHT MIND, CAN CAUSE THE CO TO LOSE A MASSIVE RM 1.3B TODATE THRU HEDGING TODATE LEH ?
SINCE SSLEE GO BACK TO CHECK.....RAIDER HAD UNCOVERED ANOTHER MASSIVE HIGH RISK POSITION OF HENGYUAN....WHICH IS HIGHER EVEN BEYOND, GENERAL RAIDER CURRENT EXPECTATION LOH!-..........To be continue......!!!
Posted by Sslee > 21 hours ago | Report Abuse
Your question 2 is a mystery to me....how can u claim your refining margin is usd 25 to 30, when your current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh⁷ ? How did u derive this high margin USD 25 margin....is it a guesstimate or from management disclosure leh ?
Stockraider,
Q2 result is for financial end 30/06/2022.
So go and check on 30/06/2022 what is the refining margin spot month and future month.
So my layman question.
If you hedge the refining margin at USD 12 - 20 per barrel from month july onward till maybe beyond 2022 up to 2023.
And current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh then how much money your refining magin swap contracts maturity on Sept will earned?
Stock
2022-09-11 14:21 | Report Abuse
Understanding why Prominent Previous Refinery Owner in Msia like Shell & Esso do not do hedging ?
1.The traditional business model of hardcore refinery are simple loh!
They buy physical crude & refine it to physical petrol & diesel and sell at price base on formula with reference to Crude Price, Exchange Rate & Crack Spread fixed by Msia Govt and make money mah!
They do not do fwd hedging n their natural hedge is the inventory they have in hand & their refinery to quickly efficiently process the crude to mainly Petrol & Diesel & quickly sell base on the fixed formula the msia Govt had set loh!
Now with the introduction of Hengyuan, it has modified the refinery model as follows loh!
1. Traditional Refinery Business Model as highlighted above.
2. Virtual Refinery Business Model using Paper Derivative as an investment & hedge to generate profit to be discussed below loh:
2.Virtual Refinery Business model thru pure hedging & derivative loh!
Do u notice that Hengyuan lose alot of monies consistently most of the time despite, mathematical computation on paper the derivative & hedge is highly profitable as per feedback of SSLEE and Probability leh ?
This is bcos the paper computation derivative & hedge shows profit do not reflect the reality situation & business dynamics of the trade loh! Reasons are as follows loh:
The Virtual Refinery Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit when doing its hedge but how come this trade fail & registered big losses at the end leh ?
1. The mkt is very dynamic loh! On paper u may see big virtual profit by hedging future crude purchase & future sell of petrol & diesel end products....but when time come for settlement in turnout to be a loss loh!
Why leh the complete hedge trade of buying & selling here cannot convert to a easy profit, like paper indicated leh ?
a. This is bcos the movement of future crude purchase price, do not completely correlate to the selling future price of petrol & diesel price due to huge mkt volatility mah! Just within a day the business dynamic may change loh! Like within 1 day the Crude Price go up 10% whereas the Petrol & Diesel selling future price did not move at all or vice versa loh!
b. The trade initiated are pure paper swap with no delivery of physical goods, thats why it may not reflect the real dynamic of a real physical refinery mah!
c. Even it involve actual delivery of the commodities, there are extra cost & logistic to bring this commodities for processing to convert it to a profit mah!
d. Thus the virtual refinery of Hengyuan business model has shown consistent losses bcos of this challenges discussed above loh!
REMEMBER WHAT RAIDER SAY ABOVE LOH!
A REFINERY BUSINESS LIKE HENGYUAN DO NOT REALLY NEED A HEDGING BUSINESS MODEL AS WELL.
IN HENGYUAN CASE.....THEY EVEN OVER DO IT....EXPOSING IT WITH A HUGE MASSIVE HEDGING LOSSES TODATE OF RM 1.3B LOH!
WHO IN THE RIGHT MIND, CAN CAUSE THE CO TO LOSE A MASSIVE RM 1.3B TODATE THRU HEDGING TODATE LEH ?
SINCE SSLEE GO BACK TO CHECK.....RAIDER HAD UNCOVERED ANOTHER MASSIVE HIGH RISK POSITION OF HENGYUAN....WHICH IS HIGHER EVEN BEYOND, GENERAL RAIDER CURRENT EXPECTATION LOH!-..........To be continue......!!!
Posted by Sslee > 21 hours ago | Report Abuse
Your question 2 is a mystery to me....how can u claim your refining margin is usd 25 to 30, when your current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh⁷ ? How did u derive this high margin USD 25 margin....is it a guesstimate or from management disclosure leh ?
Stockraider,
Q2 result is for financial end 30/06/2022.
So go and check on 30/06/2022 what is the refining margin spot month and future month.
So my layman question.
If you hedge the refining margin at USD 12 - 20 per barrel from month july onward till maybe beyond 2022 up to 2023.
And current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh then how much money your refining magin swap contracts maturity on Sept will earned?
Stock
2022-09-11 14:19 | Report Abuse
Understanding why Prominent Previous Refinery Owner in Msia like Shell & Esso do not do hedging ?
1.The traditional business model of hardcore refinery are simple loh!
They buy physical crude & refine it to physical petrol & diesel and sell at price base on formula with reference to Crude Price, Exchange Rate & Crack Spread fixed by Msia Govt and make money mah!
They do not do fwd hedging n their natural hedge is the inventory they have in hand & their refinery to quickly efficiently process the crude to mainly Petrol & Diesel & quickly sell base on the fixed formula the msia Govt had set loh!
Now with the introduction of Hengyuan, it has modified the refinery model as follows loh!
1. Traditional Refinery Business Model as highlighted above.
2. Virtual Refinery Business Model using Paper Derivative as an investment & hedge to generate profit to be discussed below loh:
2.Virtual Refinery Business model thru pure hedging & derivative loh!
Do u notice that Hengyuan lose alot of monies consistently most of the time despite, mathematical computation on paper the derivative & hedge is highly profitable as per feedback of SSLEE and Probability leh ?
This is bcos the paper computation derivative & hedge shows profit do not reflect the reality situation & business dynamics of the trade loh! Reasons are as follows loh:
The Virtual Refinery Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit when doing its hedge but how come this trade fail & registered big losses at the end leh ?
1. The mkt is very dynamic loh! On paper u may see big virtual profit by hedging future crude purchase & future sell of petrol & diesel end products....but when time come for settlement in turnout to be a loss loh!
Why leh the complete hedge trade of buying & selling here cannot convert to a easy profit, like paper indicated leh ?
a. This is bcos the movement of future crude purchase price, do not completely correlate to the selling future price of petrol & diesel price due to huge mkt volatility mah! Just within a day the business dynamic may change loh! Like within 1 day the Crude Price go up 10% whereas the Petrol & Diesel selling future price did not move at all or vice versa loh!
b. The trade initiated are pure paper swap with no delivery of physical goods, thats why it may not reflect the real dynamic of a real physical refinery mah!
c. Even it involve actual delivery of the commodities, there are extra cost & logistic to bring this commodities for processing to convert it to a profit mah!
d. Thus the virtual refinery of Hengyuan business model has shown consistent losses bcos of this challenges discussed above loh!
REMEMBER WHAT RAIDER SAY ABOVE LOH!
A REFINERY BUSINESS LIKE HENGYUAN DO NOT REALLY NEED A HEDGING BUSINESS MODEL AS WELL.
IN HENGYUAN CASE.....THEY EVEN OVER DO IT....EXPOSING IT WITH A HUGE MASSIVE HEDGING LOSSES TODATE OF RM 1.3B LOH!
WHO IN THE RIGHT MIND, CAN CAUSE THE CO TO LOSE A MASSIVE RM 1.3B TODATE THRU HEDGING TODATE LEH ?
SINCE SSLEE GO BACK TO CHECK.....RAIDER HAD UNCOVERED ANOTHER MASSIVE HIGH RISK POSITION OF HENGYUAN....WHICH IS HIGHER EVEN BEYOND, GENERAL RAIDER CURRENT EXPECTATION LOH!-..........To be continue......!!!
Posted by Sslee > 21 hours ago | Report Abuse
Your question 2 is a mystery to me....how can u claim your refining margin is usd 25 to 30, when your current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh⁷ ? How did u derive this high margin USD 25 margin....is it a guesstimate or from management disclosure leh ?
Stockraider,
Q2 result is for financial end 30/06/2022.
So go and check on 30/06/2022 what is the refining margin spot month and future month.
So my layman question.
If you hedge the refining margin at USD 12 - 20 per barrel from month july onward till maybe beyond 2022 up to 2023.
And current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh then how much money your refining magin swap contracts maturity on Sept will earned?
Stock
2022-09-11 14:18 | Report Abuse
Understanding why Prominent Previous Refinery Owner in Msia like Shell & Esso do not do hedging ?
1.The traditional business model of hardcore refinery are simple loh!
They buy physical crude & refine it to physical petrol & diesel and sell at price base on formula with reference to Crude Price, Exchange Rate & Crack Spread fixed by Msia Govt and make money mah!
They do not do fwd hedging n their natural hedge is the inventory they have in hand & their refinery to quickly efficiently process the crude to mainly Petrol & Diesel & quickly sell base on the fixed formula the msia Govt had set loh!
Now with the introduction of Hengyuan, it has modified the refinery model as follows loh!
1. Traditional Refinery Business Model as highlighted above.
2. Virtual Refinery Business Model using Paper Derivative as an investment & hedge to generate profit to be discussed below loh:
2.Virtual Refinery Business model thru pure hedging & derivative loh!
Do u notice that Hengyuan lose alot of monies consistently most of the time despite, mathematical computation on paper the derivative & hedge is highly profitable as per feedback of SSLEE and Probability leh ?
This is bcos the paper computation derivative & hedge shows profit do not reflect the reality situation & business dynamics of the trade loh! Reasons are as follows loh:
The Virtual Refinery Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit when doing its hedge but how come this trade fail & registered big losses at the end leh ?
1. The mkt is very dynamic loh! On paper u may see big virtual profit by hedging future crude purchase & future sell of petrol & diesel end products....but when time come for settlement in turnout to be a loss loh!
Why leh the complete hedge trade of buying & selling here cannot convert to a easy profit, like paper indicated leh ?
a. This is bcos the movement of future crude purchase price, do not completely correlate to the selling future price of petrol & diesel price due to huge mkt volatility mah! Just within a day the business dynamic may change loh! Like within 1 day the Crude Price go up 10% whereas the Petrol & Diesel selling future price did not move at all or vice versa loh!
b. The trade initiated are pure paper swap with no delivery of physical goods, thats why it may not reflect the real dynamic of a real physical refinery mah!
c. Even it involve actual delivery of the commodities, there are extra cost & logistic to bring this commodities for processing to convert it to a profit mah!
d. Thus the virtual refinery of Hengyuan business model has shown consistent losses bcos of this challenges discussed above loh!
REMEMBER WHAT RAIDER SAY ABOVE LOH!
A REFINERY BUSINESS LIKE HENGYUAN DO NOT REALLY NEED A HEDGING BUSINESS MODEL AS WELL.
IN HENGYUAN CASE.....THEY EVEN OVER DO IT....EXPOSING IT WITH A HUGE MASSIVE HEDGING LOSSES TODATE OF RM 1.3B LOH!
WHO IN THE RIGHT MIND, CAN CAUSE THE CO TO LOSE A MASSIVE RM 1.3B TODATE THRU HEDGING TODATE LEH ?
SINCE SSLEE GO BACK TO CHECK.....RAIDER HAD UNCOVERED ANOTHER MASSIVE HIGH RISK POSITION OF HENGYUAN....WHICH IS HIGHER EVEN BEYOND, GENERAL RAIDER CURRENT EXPECTATION LOH!-..........To be continue......!!!
Posted by Sslee > 21 hours ago | Report Abuse
Your question 2 is a mystery to me....how can u claim your refining margin is usd 25 to 30, when your current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh⁷ ? How did u derive this high margin USD 25 margin....is it a guesstimate or from management disclosure leh ?
Stockraider,
Q2 result is for financial end 30/06/2022.
So go and check on 30/06/2022 what is the refining margin spot month and future month.
So my layman question.
If you hedge the refining margin at USD 12 - 20 per barrel from month july onward till maybe beyond 2022 up to 2023.
And current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh then how much money your refining magin swap contracts maturity on Sept will earned?
Watchlist
2022-09-11 14:03 | Report Abuse
Still bullshittng on hedge accounting loh ?!
If Raider just substitute the words "hedge" with "speculative or gambling", these word feed perfectly on Hengyuan current situation or current reporting situation too mah!
The facts...is Hengyuan Derivative have an outstanding unrealized losses of Rm 1.3b in its books, not being flow to its P&L account loh!
Whether this massive Rm 1.3b losses are actually due to hedging, speculation, gambling or due siphoning nobody actually knows.,...it is for anybody guess mah!
Thus to trust these Rm 1.3b deficit could be reverse from hengyuan account....is like hoping that you would strike lottery loh!
As the current situation for Hengyuan is much dire, bcos the crack spread now is low ranging from USD 0.5 to 5.0 loh from earlier USD 20 enjoyed in 2nd qtr mah!
This type of low crack spread will result...in very low or negative operating profit for hengyuan loh!
And Whether the current Hedging situation could save HRC financial negative position is a doubtful question, bcos HRC hedging need to reverse the Massive Rm 1.3b derivative losses deficits 1st, b4 it can contribute any bottom line to its P&L for Q3 result mah!
Posted by probability > 1 day ago | Report Abuse
Truth cannot be suppressed very long, the earlier one investigates and verify what is the truth the more upper hand one will have
the longer one waits the higher the odds are for others to find out ahead of you..
....
HEDGE ACCOUNTING & how it is reported on OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (OCI)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5P_M9fWqGg
The above simple example for ORANGES can be viewed as CRUDE OIL for HY where the hedging is done with the intention of going LONG (the higher the future price, the higher the gain)
For refined products hedge, it is for going SHORT, the higher the future price, the greater the loss.
The net effect of the above two is what reported by HY under their OCI.
The Cash Flow Hedge (CFH) in OCI shows the hedging gain / loss for the hedged position which are closed, but the corresponding physical market transaction (change in ownership of the goods) is yet to take place to deliver the available market gross profit which is then offset by this hedging gain / loss on CFH to give the P&L exactly as it has been hedged initially.
The Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) on the other hand shows the hedging gain / loss for all the balance hedged position (yet to be closed) from the notional amount (refining margin swap contract RMSC), where the corresponding physical market transaction will take place within the maturity period (next 24 months) assuming the hedging positions are closed as per current spot rate.
As such, COHR is a highly hypothetical figure that changes significantly as per the market spot price of the commodity (mark-to-market) when the financial reporting period is closed.
Stock
2022-09-11 14:02 | Report Abuse
Still bullshittng on hedge accounting loh ?!
If Raider just substitute the words "hedge" with "speculative or gambling", these word feed perfectly on Hengyuan current situation or current reporting situation too mah!
The facts...is Hengyuan Derivative have an outstanding unrealized losses of Rm 1.3b in its books, not being flow to its P&L account loh!
Whether this massive Rm 1.3b losses are actually due to hedging, speculation, gambling or due siphoning nobody actually knows.,...it is for anybody guess mah!
Thus to trust these Rm 1.3b deficit could be reverse from hengyuan account....is like hoping that you would strike lottery loh!
As the current situation for Hengyuan is much dire, bcos the crack spread now is low ranging from USD 0.5 to 5.0 loh from earlier USD 20 enjoyed in 2nd qtr mah!
This type of low crack spread will result...in very low or negative operating profit for hengyuan loh!
And Whether the current Hedging situation could save HRC financial negative position is a doubtful question, bcos HRC hedging need to reverse the Massive Rm 1.3b derivative losses deficits 1st, b4 it can contribute any bottom line to its P&L for Q3 result mah!
Posted by probability > 1 day ago | Report Abuse
Truth cannot be suppressed very long, the earlier one investigates and verify what is the truth the more upper hand one will have
the longer one waits the higher the odds are for others to find out ahead of you..
....
HEDGE ACCOUNTING & how it is reported on OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (OCI)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5P_M9fWqGg
The above simple example for ORANGES can be viewed as CRUDE OIL for HY where the hedging is done with the intention of going LONG (the higher the future price, the higher the gain)
For refined products hedge, it is for going SHORT, the higher the future price, the greater the loss.
The net effect of the above two is what reported by HY under their OCI.
The Cash Flow Hedge (CFH) in OCI shows the hedging gain / loss for the hedged position which are closed, but the corresponding physical market transaction (change in ownership of the goods) is yet to take place to deliver the available market gross profit which is then offset by this hedging gain / loss on CFH to give the P&L exactly as it has been hedged initially.
The Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) on the other hand shows the hedging gain / loss for all the balance hedged position (yet to be closed) from the notional amount (refining margin swap contract RMSC), where the corresponding physical market transaction will take place within the maturity period (next 24 months) assuming the hedging positions are closed as per current spot rate.
As such, COHR is a highly hypothetical figure that changes significantly as per the market spot price of the commodity (mark-to-market) when the financial reporting period is closed.
Stock
2022-09-11 14:00 | Report Abuse
Still bullshittng on hedge accounting loh!
If Raider just substitute the words "hedge" with "speculative or gambling, these word feed perfectly on Hengyuan current situation or current reporting situation too mah!
The facts...is Hengyuan Derivative have an outstanding unrealized losses of Rm 1.3b in its books, not being flow to its P&L account loh!
Whether this massive Rm 1.3b losses are actually due to hedging, speculation, gambling or due siphoning nobody actually knows.,...it is for anybody guess mah!
Thus to trust these Rm 1.3b deficit could be reverse from hengyuan account....is like hoping that you would strike lottery loh!
As the current situation for Hengyuan is much dire, bcos the crack spread now is low ranging from USD 0.5 to 5.0 loh from earlier USD 20 enjoyed in 2nd qtr mah!
This type of low crack spread will result...in very low or negative operating profit for hengyuan loh!
And Whether the current Hedging situation could save HRC financial negative position is a doubtful question, bcos HRC hedging need to reverse the Massive Rm 1.3b derivative losses deficits 1st, b4 it can contribute any bottom line to its P&L for Q3 result mah!
Posted by probability > 1 day ago | Report Abuse
Truth cannot be suppressed very long, the earlier one investigates and verify what is the truth the more upper hand one will have
the longer one waits the higher the odds are for others to find out ahead of you..
....
HEDGE ACCOUNTING & how it is reported on OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (OCI)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5P_M9fWqGg
The above simple example for ORANGES can be viewed as CRUDE OIL for HY where the hedging is done with the intention of going LONG (the higher the future price, the higher the gain)
For refined products hedge, it is for going SHORT, the higher the future price, the greater the loss.
The net effect of the above two is what reported by HY under their OCI.
The Cash Flow Hedge (CFH) in OCI shows the hedging gain / loss for the hedged position which are closed, but the corresponding physical market transaction (change in ownership of the goods) is yet to take place to deliver the available market gross profit which is then offset by this hedging gain / loss on CFH to give the P&L exactly as it has been hedged initially.
The Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) on the other hand shows the hedging gain / loss for all the balance hedged position (yet to be closed) from the notional amount (refining margin swap contract RMSC), where the corresponding physical market transaction will take place within the maturity period (next 24 months) assuming the hedging positions are closed as per current spot rate.
As such, COHR is a highly hypothetical figure that changes significantly as per the market spot price of the commodity (mark-to-market) when the financial reporting period is closed.
............
Now that the refined oil products price (gasoline) had significantly retreated from the peak of 30th June, if it remains the same till end of Sept, Q3 will report huge gain on OCI
If prices of refined products relative to crude (the crack spread) are back to Q1 22, 30th Mar level, cost of hedging reserve shall be exactly back to the figure reported in Q1 22 results for Q3 22.
Stock
2022-09-10 14:39 | Report Abuse
Sslee,
Why u so unpanlai one leh ??
Analogy in your layman term....if u bought into 3 million of insas at rm 1.00 as u think it is worth rm 3.00...and u plan to hold it for 2 yrs...but u have unrealized losses of rm 600k bcos current insas mkt price is only rm 0.80...it is not a concern todate, when u have mark to mkt losses of rm 600k leh ?
U may think u holding & did not sell insas thus no losses...but u still your overall wealth drop by rm 600k but if u use margin...they maybe a margin call on u loh , the same applies to hengyuan why its overall nta drop....bcos of its unrealized losses of rm 1.3b despite hengyuan reporting a strong eps of rm 2.20 per share in q2 loh ?
Your question 2 is a mystery to me....how can u claim your refining margin is usd 25 to 30, when your current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh ? How did u derive this high margin USD 25 margin....is it a guesstimate or from management disclosure leh ?
To add another dimension Q3, hengyuan will have operations inventory losses of roughly USD 10 per barrel, as its inventory crude prices has fallen from USD 105 in June to about USD 85 in SEPT mah!
Posted by Sslee > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse
Stockraider,
Can you slow down, keep your mouth shut and put on your thinking cap for a while to answer my 2 layman questions below:
If you hedge the refining margin at USD 12 - 20 per barrel from month july onward till maybe beyond 2022 up to 2023
So when Q2 end 30/06/2022 the spot month and future month refining margin is now at USD 30 - 25 per barrel.
How you going to capture this unrealised loss in your Q2 account?
Is this unrealised loss a great concerned?
Watchlist
2022-09-10 14:38 | Report Abuse
Sslee,
Why u so unpanlai one leh ??
Analogy in your layman term....if u bought into 3 million of insas at rm 1.00 as u think it is worth rm 3.00...and u plan to hold it for 2 yrs...but u have unrealized losses of rm 600k bcos current insas mkt price is only rm 0.80...it is not a concern todate, when u have mark to mkt losses of rm 600k leh ?
U may think u holding & did not sell insas thus no losses...but u still your overall wealth drop by rm 600k but if u use margin...they maybe a margin call on u loh , the same applies to hengyuan why its overall nta drop....bcos of its unrealized losses of rm 1.3b despite hengyuan reporting a strong eps of rm 2.20 per share in q2 loh ?
Your question 2 is a mystery to me....how can u claim your refining margin is usd 25 to 30, when your current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh ? How did u derive this high margin USD 25 margin....is it a guesstimate or from management disclosure leh ?
To add another dimension Q3, hengyuan will have operations inventory losses of roughly USD 10 per barrel, as its inventory crude prices has fallen from USD 105 in June to about USD 85 in SEPT mah!
Posted by Sslee > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse
Stockraider,
Can you slow down, keep your mouth shut and put on your thinking cap for a while to answer my 2 layman questions below:
If you hedge the refining margin at USD 12 - 20 per barrel from month july onward till maybe beyond 2022 up to 2023
So when Q2 end 30/06/2022 the spot month and future month refining margin is now at USD 30 - 25 per barrel.
How you going to capture this unrealised loss in your Q2 account?
Is this unrealised loss a great concerned?
Stock
2022-09-10 14:36 | Report Abuse
Sslee,
Why u so unpanlai one leh ??
Analogy in your layman term....if u bought into 3 million of insas at rm 1.00 as u think it is worth rm 3.00...and u plan to hold it for 2 yrs...but u have unrealized losses of rm 600k bcos current insas mkt price is only rm 0.80...it is not a concern todate, when u have mark to mkt losses of rm 600k leh ?
U may think u holding & did not sell insas thus no losses...but u still your overall wealth drop by rm 600k but if u use margin...they maybe a margin call on u loh , the same applies to hengyuan why its overall nta drop....bcos of its unrealized losses of rm 1.3b despite hengyuan reporting a strong eps of rm 2.20 per share in q2 loh ?
Your question 2 is a mystery to me....how can u claim your refining margin is usd 25 to 30, when your current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh ? How did u derive this high margin USD 25 margin....is it a guesstimate or from management disclosure leh ?
To add another dimension Q3, hengyuan will have operations inventory losses of roughly USD 10 per barrel, as its inventory crude prices has fallen from USD 105 in June to about USD 85 in SEPT mah!
Posted by Sslee > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse
Stockraider,
Can you slow down, keep your mouth shut and put on your thinking cap for a while to answer my 2 layman questions below:
If you hedge the refining margin at USD 12 - 20 per barrel from month july onward till maybe beyond 2022 up to 2023
So when Q2 end 30/06/2022 the spot month and future month refining margin is now at USD 30 - 25 per barrel.
How you going to capture this unrealised loss in your Q2 account?
Is this unrealised loss a great concerned?
Stock
2022-09-10 12:00 | Report Abuse
Hengyuan already has a negative unrealized culmulative Rm 1.3 billion on derivative losses on hedging mah!
On sustainability Thus alot of catching up, need to be done in the next 2 qtr bcos way behind loh!
Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING COMPANY BERHAD
2022-09-11 15:57 | Report Abuse
moral of the story....suspect veli penting mah!
Cautious very important mah!
Dulu Serba....olang pun suspect only meh ?
Apa macam sekarang ??