Rolling 4Q EPS= 13.12 cents/share.
Forward EPS for 2015= [(0.65+4.63+6.20)/3 Qtrs] x 4 Qtrs= 15.30 cents/share
Forward EPS > Rolling EPS by +16.67% indicating that there is further future upside to its share price.

Its EPS had increased over the past 3 Qtrs from 0.65 cents/share to 4.63 cents/share to latest 6.20 cents/share. Good positive improvement.

It has vastly improved on its net cash and cash equivalents & Net cash flows in YTD Sept 2015 over 2014 comparison:

Net Cash & Cash Eqv Net Cash Flows
YTD Sept 2015 RM 112.06 Mil 55.884 Mil
YTD Sept 2014 RM 31.589 Mil 19.073 Mil

It attempted to breakout of immediate resistance of 1.42 twice over past 10 days but retraced back. Today it successfully broke out of immediate resistance of 1.42 on its third attempt and latest morning closing of 1.46 is a good sign.

It has to consolidate and stay above 1.42 support prior to further upward price movement

Russia, unlike Obama, takes action. They won't talk.

Just go back to 1986 when Hezbollah kidnapped 4 Russians n killed one of them?
Russians r not stupid to fall into trap set by Turkey n US. ..they r far smarter..they wont talk but they do take effective action behind the scenes where it will hurt most who ever ordered the shooting down of the Russian plane.

After 3 days since suspension 19/11/2015, it closed above the mid candlestick@ 19/11/2015.Good sign. It will re challenge immediate resistance of RM 1.31 again.

Russia had been leading the fight against ISIS. Russia military offensive against ISIS targets and against anti Assad forces backed by US had overshadowed US. Russian bombing of crude oil tankers had severely hurt Erdogan son's business of buying cheap crude oil from ISIS, transporting by tankers into Turkey n selling to international buyers. The shooting was intentional n very likely done with US approval. The shooting is another manifestation of the proxy war between US n Russia.

US back the Sunnis n Russia backs the Shias. Islam civil war has the added complexity of proxy war between USA n Russia.

Putin wants Tartus access to the Mediterranean n installing Assad over Alawite part of Syria means dismembering Syria leaving Kurds to the north n rest to Iran. New geopolitical centre has formed comprising Russia, Syria, Iraq n Iran.

Iran n Russia both having vast oil reserves WILL HAVE GREAT POWER DURING THE NEXT OIL BOOM

You are now "laughing" over your disgusting behaviour...but it does not hide the fact that you r a fraudster hiding under multiple identities..and you are a BIG MESS to YOURSELF..

You are indeed the greatest sorhai in i3 forum as you had inadvertently exposed your true colours...A REAL SORHAI ALA TIN KOSONG

u have shown to everyone here in this forum that u r indeed a real sorhai befitting the title of "TIN KOSONG"

so u claim to know the Russian mindset..by studying a Russian girl many years ago???...are u dead serious or r u just joking like a sorhai

Posted by zbaikitree > Nov 25, 2015 11:29 PM | Report Abuse

i studied russian girl in uni. so i know more about russian than u la.
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so u know more about Russians by studying a Russian girl in university....what an utter sorhai talk coming from "tin kosong"

https://www.rt.com/news/323431-saved-pilot-turkish-su24/

https://www.rt.com/news/323373-ankara-defends-isis-medvedev/

https://www.rt.com/news/323404-lavrov-syria-s24-turkey/

The whole basis of DCF is build on the assumption that you know the business well enough.
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Well said...100% agree with your statement. Now the pertinent job to do is to build on the assumptions as confidently and as realistically as possible in computing a confident but fair IV number based on assumptions of future cash flows and the discount factor

So how would u go about building the assumptions based on the principles at your disposal??

JTYeo,
I invested in EVERGREEN when it was just below 60 cents and I held onto it until now. If one had looked at the financials then, it was a NO NO for most but I decided to invest as it had decent cashflows then and I have confidence that the management had the vision and had what it takes to turn it around... That was about 13 months ago. The art of investment is not 100% in the financials...it is to discover unpolished GEMS...there's more to it than just financials

hahahahaha

JT Yeo,
You had missed the gist of my message.
The main objective of DCF is to determine a reliable estimate of the Intrinsic Value of a company. There r two subjective elements here in determining the Intrinsic Value (IV) using DCF :
- reliable estimate of future cash flows
- the appropriate discount rate

Being conservative in the estimation of future cash flows and applying the appropriate discount rate does not necessarily imply that the IV that u had derived is a reliable estimate of the intrinsic Value of a company. By being conservative in projecting future cash flows and applying a conservative discount rate may turn out to be totally unreliable and you may err in your decision making and miss out on the potential profit opportunity as an investor. If one is not confident of the input figures in the DCF model , why bother with it in the first place???

The onus is therefore on the person performing the DCF to determine the fair estimate of the IV of the company in order that decisions can subsequently be made.

So lets start the discussion going on in just determining a reliable estimate of the discount rate based on Malaysian situation.

- How would you determine the principles that u will use in determining the Weighted average cost of capital(WACC)of a company
- Having determined the WACC for the company, what are the principles that you will apply in determining the risk premium that you will want as an investor before you decide to consider investing in the company?

Before I begin, please find my comment below which you may have accidentally omitted as it brings some balance to the overall issue at hand

Posted by sunztzhe > Nov 24, 2015 12:48 AM | Report Abuse X

Of course for a highly leverage company one must also use Return on Total assets as another benchmark on performance besides EPS and PE multiple

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First and foremost ...Thank you for highlighting a narrow portion of what I had written yesterday which by the way was my response to one of the forumers then but I do feel honoured that you had taken the opportunity , the liberty and decision to advertise what I had espoused on the narrow portion on EPS, PE multiple, forward EPS n forward PE multiple based on current price.

I think there were other wider issues on DCF method of determining the Intrinsic Value which I did raised yesterday which you had chosen not to discuss and had omitted in the above article. I believe that in life, one must have a balanced view and keep things as simple as possibly can.

First and foremost as an investor I look at the company's biz model, the management and how the management of any company manages its total assets to generate returns for the company and to its shareholders. I place high importance on the qualitative statements from the chairman/MD in the annual report, the biz strategy going forward and whether the chairman or MD really knows the biz. I will visit its website to have a fuller understanding of its biz, the industry it competes in. This is very important to me as an investor.

Next ..I would focus on ROE(return on Equity) and ROA (return on total assets) as performance metrics concurrently as you too is also aware that for highly leverage companies, ROE will overstate the performance due to the gearing factor. To bring it to some form of balance, I will use ROA for highly leverage companies. Notwithstanding the above I would always look at net cash backing per share as well.

Your topic yesterday was on the usage of Discounted Cash Flow Model(DCF) to determine the Intrinsic value(IV) of a company such as VS. The DCF model is a good financial tool to determine the Intrinsic Value of any company. However it has its drawbacks.

First in todays world, companies may not be privileged to live for a long time due to management/competition /technological obsolescence etc

Second, The DCF financial model requires a fair forecast of future cash flows which has to be discounted back to Net Present Value by the weighted average cost of capital(WACC). Herein lies two challenges on
- a fair but subjective estimate of future cash flows with its attendant assumptions
- a fair but subjective estimate of the weighted average cost of capital which in most cases is comprised of Cost of Equity(Re) + Cost of Debt(Rd)

The estimation of a fair value of Re being the Cost of Equity Capital is very subjective and thus vary even among different financial experts.

The objective of DCF Model company is to determine the Intrinsic Value of a listed company and to enable the investor to ascertain whether the market price is at a premium or discount to its Intrinsic value(IV) which may then assist the Value Investor to decide. Since the estimation of a fair value of Re in particular may vary, the IV number thus computed will also vary. A high Re will result in a lower IV whereas a lower Re value will result in a higher IV. In essence there will be a range of fair estimate of IV numbers based on different subjective estimate of the Re factor given the same subjective estimate of future cash flows.

I hope the above brings balance back to the subject matter that was discussed yesterday.

So please share what you have learnt to safeguard your hard earned money?

Of course for a highly leverage company one must also use Return on Total assets as another benchmark on performance besides EPS and PE multiple

Assets of any company will generate a return n postive returns will contribute to retained earnings n pay dividends or give bonus issue ...so earnings growth will drive share price up..likewise earnings decrease will drive share price down..so focus on Earnings per share..and simple PE multiple...of course others may choose IV, EV/EBITA etc etc..but i keep it simple ..just EPS, What PE multiple..what is forward EPS n forward PE multiple based on current price

Make it less complicated...just focus on the EPS..if E
PS keep on improving..hold...if EPS starts to deteriorate..sell

pisanggoreng,
Since u r already a roadside pisang goreng seller...You are very capable of selling pisang goreng by now...and making good money and have the spare cash to invest..syabas to u...hahahaha

Every investor has different expectation of their expected return from their equity investment say in a listed company called "Pisang Goreng."

The ONLY objective in using DCF Model on "Pisang Goreng" company is to determine the Intrinsic Value of "Pisang Goreng" and ascertain whether the market price is at a premium or discount to its Intrinsic value(IV). If the market price is at discount below IV, the Value investor would consider buying. Likewise if market price is above the IV, the Value investor will wait for a significant price correction below its IV.

So different investor has different expectation of Re and that implies that the Intrinsic valuation of "Pisang Goreng" company varies from "OVERVALUATION" to "UNDERVALUATION" in the eyes of different investors with different Re at any given point in time.

Herein lies the question.."WHAT IS THE INTRINSIC WORTH OF PISANG GORENG COMPANY?"

Why do u say u want 10% for Re??

I am sure you are already aware by now that estimating a High value for Re will result in lower NPV whereas estimating a lower value of Re will result in higher IV. If u want very extremely high Re..u will not buy any stocks...hahahaha

So what is a realistic expectation of the ART OF ESTIMATING a value for Re for "PISANG GORENG" Company.

Besides estimating an artful "Re value" for "PISANG GORENG" company, u MUST FIRST need to estimate a fair estimate of the future cash flows of "PISANG GORENG" as well...

Estimating a fair IV would assist u to make the "BUY" or "SELL" decision if u really want to be a Value Investor or "WARREN BUFFET WANNABE"

Re is estimating the Cost of Equity Capital and the estimate may vary. Lets assume for discussion sake...there are three companies A, B and C with the same Debt Equity structure in percentage and absolute value amount. Assume that they are in the same industry.

Lets say company A had patchy earnings record and somehow due to management effort consistently deliver increasing EPS in the future, what Re would u yourself as an investor impute a value for Re?

Imagine Company B had erratic earnings in the past and continue to deliver erratic earnings in the future.....what Re would u impute for company B?

Imagine company C used to deliver consistent results in the past but somehow deliver erratic earnings currently and also in the future years........what Re would u impute for company C?

Please advise your decision criteria and the input factors and weightage ascribed to these factors(if applicable) in imputing the Re value for the 3 companies above.

Thank you.

Calculating cost of Debt is straightforward. Is 12% a realistic expectation of the Cost of equity for VS shareholders in the industry it competes in??

For simplicity, I will use this WACC of 10% as a discount rate for getting its intrinsic value for the firm.
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kcchong,
WACC= Cost of Equity + Cost of Debt
Please do advise what is the actual WACC based on your computation of the company's actual cost of equity and its actual cost of debt and the risk premium that you had decided over the actual WACC. Thank you.

KYY invest like a business man. He is successful in what he does. He dare take the big risk when he knows the stock can deliver the increasing earnings per share. He concentrates whereas a lot diversify investment.

BAHVEST easily broke out of down trend resistance of 1.03 and closed at 1.19 prior to suspension. It effectively ended its sideways consolidation today. WILL GO MUCH HIGHER..

BAHVEST broke immediate resistance @RM1.00 today. If it managed to stay above RM 1.00 for next 2-3 days, it will trend towards higher price.

Major resistance of EDUSPEC @33 cents was challenged twice over last 3 weeks without success. Yesterday it challenged the major resistance@33 cents again for the 3rd time and managed to breakout and closed @33.5 cents. Price now is 34 cents...

If the stock price can stay above 33 cents for the next 2-3 days, this stock will go much higher.

ICON is consolidating sideways...Immediate resistance to overcome is @ 38 cents followed by next major resistance @ 40 cents.

Today JTIASA outperformed KLCI index after a long hiatus. It had been bullish for the past 2 days...looks like this is the beginning of the commencement of the long awaited trend change. If the forthcoming Q3 result is better than Q2 and if future palm oil price firmed up further, this stock has legs to run further

Immediate resistance @ RM 1.36. Next major resistance @ RM 1.49

Hng33,
This is another awesome performance by Jeffery Li as well. Enjoy it..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lneKwURF3c0&list=RDHeUJ4Y-XOeY&index=3

hng33,
Thanks for your feedback. Its been a long day. Please chillout the night n enjoy the song below from Jeffery Li..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veIs0TQyaaM&index=2&list=RDHeUJ4Y-XOeY

Hng33,
Thanks for the info and I do appreciate it very much. My understanding is the reclaimed land usually undergoes a long period of settlement that may affect building structures and underground facilities such as water supply and sewage systems built on the land. The key question here is how long is settlement period of the reclaimed land as per Malaysian requirement before commencement of construction??

This stock had been on downtrend since April 2014...It closed LOWEST Low @ RM 1.07 on 26/8/2015 but closed with HIGHER Low@ RM 1.19 on 9/11/2015. It had been under performing the KLCI index since April 2014 and had been on sideways consolidation since 26/8/2015. It is now attempting to breakout of its consolidation mode to begin its UPTREND.

Its upcoming Q3 report will be due on 27/11/2015 or 28/11/2015. The recent price movement maybe indicating that the upcoming financial results will be better than previous quarter.

Looking forward, this stock will most likely breakout of consolidation and resume its long awaited uptrend soon as today it hit a HIGHER High price @RM 1.35 which is a good indicator of further upside to come.

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus=LACHARSINGH + ETC ETC= ALL SAME PERSON= ALL FRAUDSTERS with MULTIPLE IDENTITIES

U R A FRAUDSTER WITH MULTIPLE IDENTITIES..

REPENT YOUR SINS AS A FRAUDSTER

I WILL ONLY COME TO THIS THREAD WHEN U HAVE REPENTED YOUR SINS AS A FRAUDSTER WITH MULTIPLE IDENTITIES

CAN U TAKE YOUR MONEY WITH U WHEN U DIE???

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus=LACHARSINGH + ETC ETC= ALL SAME PERSON= ALL FRAUDSTERS with MULTIPLE IDENTITIES

U R A FRAUDSTER WITH MULTIPLE IDENTITIES..

REPENT YOUR SINS AS A FRAUDSTER

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus=LACHARSINGH + ETC ETC= ALL SAME PERSON= ALL FRAUDSTERS with MULTIPLE IDENTITIES

U R A FRAUDSTER WITH MULTIPLE IDENTITIES...

U HAVE PROVEN YOURSELF AS FRAUDSTERS WITH MULTIPLE IDENTITIES...

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus=LACHARSINGH + ETC ETC= ALL SAME PERSON= ALL FRAUDSTERS with MULTIPLE IDENTITIES

U R JUST FRAUDSTERS WITH MULTIPLE IDENTITIES...

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus=LACHARSINGH + ETC ETC= ALL SAME PERSON= ALL FRAUDSTERS with MULTIPLE IDENTITIES

FRAUDSTERS WITH MULTIPLE IDENTITIES...

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus=LACHARSINGH + ETC ETC= ALL SAME PERSON= ALL FRAUDSTERS with MULTIPLE IDENTITIES

U DONT GIVE A DAMN TO ALL RETAIL INVESTORS HERE
U SHORT SELL TO MAKE THEM POORER WHILE U MAKE YOURSELF RICHER

CAN U TAKE YOUR MONEY WITH YOU WHEN U DIE???

FRAUDSTERS WITH MULTIPLE IDENTITIES...

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus=LACHARSINGH + ETC ETC= ALL SAME PERSON= ALL FRAUDSTERS with MULTIPLE IDENTITIES

THEY R SHORT SELLING HIBISC
THEY MAKE MONEY FROM SHORT SELLING AT EXPENSE OF RETAIL INVESTORS
THEY MAKE THE RETAIL INVESTORS POORER

I HAVE NO TIME FOR FRAUDSTERS WITH MULTIPLE IDENTITIES...

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus=LACHARSINGH + ETC ETC= ALL SAME PERSON= ALL FRAUDSTERS with MULTIPLE IDENTITIES

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus= SAME PERSON= ALL FRAUDSTERS

WHO IS DOING THE SHORT SELLING?
WHO IS CLAIMING THEY R MAKING MONEY FROM SHORT SELLING?
WHO IS MAKING THE RETAIL INVESTORS POORER?

This stock had been on sideways consolidation since Sept 2014. It started to outperform the KLCI Index since 26/10/2015. It tried three times to breakout of the immediate resistance of RM 1.00...but did not succeed. Recent correction is almost over. Looks like it is starting to attempt to breakout for the 4th time. Based on chart patterns, it will most likely succeed on its next attempt..

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus= SAME PERSON= ALL TRANSPARENT FRAUDSTERS

OK POINT TAKEN....U R A TRANSPAENT FRAUDSTER WITH MULTIPLE IDENTITIES

wakakakakakaka. laughdieme liao.

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus= SAME PERSON= ALL FRAUDSTERS

IS YOUR BUNTUT ON RED HOT FIRE NOW? WHAT IS THE TEMPERATURE OF YOUR BUNTUT NOW??

Wakakakak laughdieme liao

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus= SAME PERSON= ALL FRAUDSTERS

JUST WATCH SHOW ON "HOW FRAUDSTERS SHORT SELL N BURNED THEIR OWN BUNTUT "

Wakakakak laughdieme liao

THESE FRAUDSTERS BUNTUT IS ON FIRE NOW....

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus= SAME PERSON= ALL FRAUDS

DONT LISTEN TO FRAUDSTERS CALL..

LET THESE FRAUDSTERS SELL SHORT
LET THESE FRAUDSTERS BUY BACK THEIR OWN SHORTS

STAY OUT, JUST WATCH THE "FRAUDSTERS SHORT SELLING SHOW"

TengkuFaisal=Zbaikitree = musashi69= Optimus= SAME PERSON

SAME PERSON WITH OTHER NUMEROUS MULTIPLE IDENTITIES....TOO MANY MINOR IDENTITIES

DONT BE CONNED AND BE FOOLED BY THESE FRAUDSTERS
IF THEY ARE NOT A FRAUD,WHY NEED MULTIPLE IDENTITIES, WHAT DO THEY HAVE TO HIDE

WHAT IS THEIR MAIN OBJECTIVE USING MULTIPLE IDENTITIES??

Let them "MAIN SENDIRI, SHIOK SENDIRI, SEE HOW FAR THEY CONTINUE TO MAIN SENDIRI & SHIOK SENDIRI"...

LET THEM CREATE THEIR OWN VOLUME, LET THEM PLAY WITH THEIR OWN MULTIPLE ACCOUNTS...ONLY BY THEMSELVES

STAY OUT OF HIBISC AND WATCH THEIR "MAIN SENDIRI SHOW"

LET THEM SELL SHORT
LET THEM BUY BACK THEIR OWN SHORTS

THEIR BUNTUT IS ON FIRE NOW..