Its a long term portfolio with two preconditions...
- No 1: Crude oil price remains benign at low price
- No 2: It declares a dividend policy in tandem with the profits made

Based on my observation, BURSA market gives refinery a PE of 10...

Thanks aliimam for the info...it is very clear that even with a conservative PE of 8.5 instead of 9 to 9.5, SHELL is tremendously undervalued at current closing price of RM 5.15. Its EPS for FY 2016 will be more explosive going forward assuming a benign crude oil price in 2016!!!

Lets take a snap look at Shell's financial performance for 3 QR in 2015.Its Q4R 2015 will be released soon.

YTD 3 QR 2015 EPS =85 cents/share. With Conservative forecast Q4 2015 EPS of 50 cents/share , forecast Full FY 2015 EPS= 135 cents/share.

Forward EPS for full year 2015 based on YTD 2015 3QR of 85 cents/share = 113 cents/share

Assuming Market gives pure refinery a conservative PE of say 8.5, the TP range ranges from RM 9.60 to RM 11.40

If Refineries make good profits in future(which they will achieve with benign crude oil prices) and declare a dividend payout policy, the market will instead give it a PE higher than 10 as in the case of PETDAG/PETCHEM

If crude oil price remain benign for FY 2016, the Earnings per share for SHELL in FY 2016 will be much better than FY 2015.

Lets take a snap look at Shell's financial performance for 3 QR in 2015.Its Q4R 2015 will be released soon.

YTD 3 QR 2015 EPS =85 cents/share. With Conservative forecast Q4 2015 EPS of 50 cents/share , forecast Full FY 2015 EPS= 135 cents/share.

Forward EPS for full year 2015 based on YTD 2015 3QR of 85 cents/share = 113 cents/share

Assuming Market gives pure refinery a conservative PE of say 8.5, the TP range ranges from RM 9.60 to RM 11.40

If Refineries make good profits in future(which they will achieve with benign crude oil prices) and declare a dividend payout policy, the market will instead give it a PE higher than 10 as in the case of PETDAG/PETCHEM

If crude oil price remain benign for FY 2016, the Earnings per share for SHELL in FY 2016 will be much better than FY 2015.

Assuming a benign crude oil price coupled with productivity and cost reduction schemes in 2016, the EPS of SHELL for 2016 is expected to be better than 2015.

IF SHELL can achieve Full FY 2015 EPS of 113.46 cents/share with the impending QR, we are looking at TP of RM 11.3 with PE of 10.

Once price retracement is over, SHELL will challenge its all time high of RM 10.22 in year 2011.

Q1 2015 EPS= 28.08 cents/share
Q2 2015 EPS= 107.4 cents/share
Q3 2015 EPS= -50.38 cents/share
Cumulative EPS for 3 QTRS in 2015= 85.1 cents/share
Prospective EPS for 2015= 113.46 cents/share
Closing price= RM 5.24
Forecast PE based on prospective EPS 2015 = 4.62

What u waiting for?? Its Value deal price now..BUY BUY BUY!!!

Prepare for SHELL price to rocket after this correction...

PureBull,
If u r already IN, this is the best time to Go in more.

Time to BUY IN!!!Time to ride SHELL UP!!

Running a biz is not a game of probability..its target setting, empowering the personnel to achieve or to achieve over the targets...its either the management culture have what it takes to deliver the results or not...not a numbers crunching exercise on probable outcomes...

Just focus on the biz model....on the BIG PICTURE...Focus on what management had done and what they plan to do...when costs are taken care off and well under control coupled with productivity throughput increase...the profits will soon flow in...

Smart money is accumulating...not so smarts are selling out...smart money will soon be laughing all the way with money in the bank...if one reads the management report on what SHELL had done and plan to do ...one should have no doubts whatsoever that cost is well under control...

what do u expect from commies?? Do u expect them to understand market forces?? The root causal factor was they ban shorts...foreign funds will be happy to keep their funds invested but use shorts as a hedge. Since the commies had banned shorts...the funds were forced to sell out...that is why market dropped significantly and will continue to drop if the commies persist in their stubborn ways...BIG DAMAGE had already been done by Xi and his group...

what do u expect from commies??

better invest in Jtiasa

degearing prospects will save finacial cost but is not fundamental driver of business, export mkt yet to be developed..hmm..with weakening RM maybe but if export mkt has yet to be developed substantially..where is the immediate benefit going forward?? mieco another evergreen...i doubt it

Average age of oil palm trees is almost 8 yrs old. Yields per acre will increase from 8 to 15 years. 10,000 hectares to be rehabilitated within 1 year means more yield increase in the future but less cash outflow relative to planting new trees. There is also Timber as significant profit contributor.

What does that mean? well the fundamental improvement will drive up profits, cash flow, dividend payout in the future.

Chartwise, price had bottomed , already broken out of sideways consolidation and is now on uptrend.

Posted by sunztzhe > Nov 13, 2015 04:46 PM | Report Abuse X

ICON had already BOTTOMED..It is consolidating sideways now. After the consolidation is over, ICON will GO UPTREND. This is a good opportunity to buy ICON as there is little downside now for Crude Oil.
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Congrats to those who bought in.
Sideways consolidation is OVER. UPTREND had already started. Immediate resistance is 50 cents. Given time, it will challenge its all time high of 2.19.

Since it hit bottomed on 26/8/2015, JTIASA had been registering Higher Lows and Higher Highs and daily transacted volume had been increasing. Based on its Price Volume action, it appears that it is attempting to breakout of sideways consolidation.

It has consolidated for 17 days after its recent high. Looks like recent price retracement is over. It had rebounded for past 3 days. Immediate resistance to overcome is 63.5 cents.

Its ISQ..in status quo despite the wayangs being played out ....

One ought to realize by now that Politics is the art in managing perception. What is most important is how one manages ones view and manage ones journey in life in the midst of of all these.

Good indication that recent consolidation arising from its price surge to RM 1.31 on 23/11/2015 is going to be over soon. Immediate resistance to overcome is RM 1.19. Once RM 1.19 is taken out, BAHVEST will attempt to re challenge its previous high of RM 1.31. If it manage to breakout of RM 1.31 and stay above RM 1.31, it will go on towards hitting new highs.

Yields per hectare will continue to improve as the average age of the Oil Palm trees are slightly over 7 years. Yield of the Oil Palm trees on average will continue to increase from 7 years to 15 years. So we have abt 8 years of steady yield improvement up to say 2023. So the fundamentals for JTIASA will continue to improve with time.

JTIASA has earnings and revenue from Timber as well and it had been replanting Timber trees on huge acreages but this will take time to bear fruit. Timber will be a major revenue and earnings kicker from 2022 onward although it is already now contributing to revenue and earnings.

TA indicators indicated its was oversold. The lowest low @ RM 1.06 was on 26/8/2015. The second lowest low was 2 days ago. Now waiting for JTIASA to hit a higher High.

All info is in Bursa website...Do your own research..

TAANN had performed splendidly for me... JTIASA is starting to perform... I m looking at minimum TP of RM 2.30 for JTIASA

I m fully invested in JTIASA and TAANN

I focus more on the JTIASA improving fundamentals as in
- increasing yields per hectare and
- increasing OER.
- timber contribution

RM is not the primary driver for increasing profits. It is just a bonus when it happens.

DreamRaider,
Please give the fellow forumers here a voice to be heard. Please give them room for them to digest, clarify and espouse their views.

Posted by sunztzhe > Dec 13, 2015 07:36 PM | Report Abuse X

Brent Crude oil price was USD 139.83/bbl as at June 1st 2008. It closed yesterday at USD 38.32/bbl down by a whopping -72.6%.

At this price level, the futures market is overestimating the continuation of future glut and underestimating the significant drop in future supply.
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I have already shared with fellow forumers here on my views on the price of oil in the futures market. So far I had not received any rebuttals with convincing arguments on why u do not agree with my views. Any takers??

Sunkist118,
What is your idea for a better Malaysia?

eric_b7b,
What is your ideas for a better Malaysia?

sarawakian,
Thanks for sharing. What is your proposal for a better Malaysia?

xxenoxx1987,
Are u happy working in Australia? Do u feel like its home in Australia?

Brent Crude oil price was USD 139.83/bbl as at June 1st 2008. It closed yesterday at USD 38.32/bbl down by a whopping -72.6%.

At this price level, the futures market is overestimating the continuation of future glut and underestimating the significant drop in future supply.

"It is always inside the box forecast with no foresight"

It is a no brainer forecast..when price is down...forecast future price is even lower...when price is up..forecast future price is even higher...any kid can do that!!

"It is always inside the box forecast with no foresight"

Calvin,
Yes long time no see..yes I bought into Evergreen below 60 cents...I am still holding EVERGREEN...Fundamentals of JTIASA now is much better than EVERGREEN when I bought in. I bought into EVERGREEN becoz of two reasons
- It was a cyclical turnaround stock although its financial was a disaster then but it had healthy cashflows
- The EVERGREEN management being owner operator is committed to drive up the top and bottom line by tweaking its biz model and the management had a vision to drive the biz forward. The results speak for itself exactly 13 months ago.

What I saw in EVERGREEN then, I see that again in JTIASA now.

JTIASA earnings will improve further in the future. Average age of its Oil Palm trees is only slightly over 7 years..still lots of room for yield increase in the future years.

Chartwise it already hit bottom on 26/08/2015 and has consolidated sideways.It will attempt to test its previous low of 1.05 before attempting to breakout of sideways consolidation.

CPO price is anticipated to rise further due to the el nino effect in early 2016. Maybe this will be the catalyst that JTIASA just need to break out of its sideways consolidation. Besides CPO it has Timber.

At this price level and looking forward...the Reward is much more than Downside Risk.

Besides Saudi is fighting war with Yemen..that consumes money..Saudi has 40% unemployment rate among its youths whilst the ruling elite, their families and cronies live in lavish, opulent lifestyle easily noticed by the Young Saudi "have nots"...its the right recipe for another Arab Spring waiting to happen in Saudi....

Saudi is increasingly relying on EOR to boost production from its major ageing Oil fields...how long can Saudi continue to boost its oil production using EOR in its major ageing oil fields???

The new global Oil leaders in waiting will be Russia, Iran and USA..just wait and observe...

Iran will need to overhaul its entire ageing oil production assets and pipelines and that takes time...Iran does not have LNG technology as yet...only CNG...Iran had already sounded that it wants oil price to be USD 80/bbl...

The Saudi ruling elites are commiting hara kiri through their ill thought out action

Saudi wants Oil price to below USD 50/bbl...Can Saudi sustain it? I don't think so...Currently the futures market had overreacted to the gravity of the Oil Glut situation....

It will come a time in the near future that the market will soon realize that it had overestimated the glut and underestimated the significant drop in future supply...

Hmm...this impending situation is akin to the popular saying...."Man proposes but God disposes"

Have patience..a new identity will surface from the same DNA of OPTIMUS ala zbai bark up wrong tree...

If want face then one got to earn it and get the basics right ..

The multiple identities always swallow hook and sinker anything from CNN and likes to quote ..."alway inside the box n no foresight"...big deal...this is a nut case who can't even write proper English, or think out of the box and is the one without foresight and some more... claim to study in US university and also studied Russian girl and claimed to know deeply Russian mindset and because of also claimed to know President Putin mindset from just studying Russian girl many years ago....now he is old person...reminiscing of the youthful days...

If studied in US university as claimed...why is the English so outrageously atrocious??..hmm probably stayed inside the box and lack foresight then..

He cant speak Russian...probably studied overseas outside Russia and studied Russian girl overseas...studied only leh..

DreamDominator,
Just VOMITING the typical "Laughmedie Liao" VOMIT laugh from Optimus ala Zbai bark up wrong tree ala lk059 plus the other newbies with the same DNA as OPTIMUS ala zbai bark up wrong tree...even if they restrain from VOMIT laughing..I can pick them up easily...

Now I am vomiting their typical laugh..."Laughmedie Liao lor" for their sake since some of the new multiple identities are restrained from laughing lest they give themselves away...