The key word is "USER FRIENDLY", "PRACTICAL" and only one computer transaction is best. Can DSONIC fuel card provide this which does not need much computer to computer interfacing??

Pavillion, The secular bear trend in crude oil had already started. We are in the early phase. Where and how will be the justification of another fuel price hike in Malaysia if crude oil price continue to remain at current levels?

Is the fuel card subsidy using MYKAD workable, practical? Will it increase petrol filling time of consumers waiting for computer feedback? How would you react if you have to wait, wait and wait just to fill up your petrol. Come on , get real Pavillion. I foresee enormous implementation problem and inconvenience to the extent that it will be politically untenable for the BN govt let alone it will be fantastic electioneering issue for PR.

If directors are selling at 1.50 why are you buying at 1.58??

Lets get real. Will oil price go up or we are entering a secular bear market for crude oil? If it is indeed a secular bear market for crude oil then this trend will last for years.

Is the use of fuel card using MYKAD practical? Each petrol company has their own software. How will the MYKAD interface with the software in each petrol station? Will the use of fuel card cause longer fill up time at the petrol/diesel stations or shorten current fill up time at each petrol station? If oil price remains at current level for future years which is very likely, how and where is the justification for another further fuel price hike??

kahhoeng, Please don't haha too soon. I have the following questions to ask you and the questions are very simple
"Do you personally know the CEO and owner of Puncak?"
"How much do you know on who actually owns how much in Puncak?"
"What has Puncak stated and documented on what Puncak will do with the cash that it receives?"
"Has Puncak stated publicly that it will declare certain dividends $$$ upon receiving the cash or it is merely your own speculation or your own expectation?"

Now every investor in CBIP is so happy and gung-ho on the latest corporate offerings which need not be said now. The business of CBIP can be considered as fair valued at this current price. However the investment in palm oil cultivation may be a good investment if one's view is CPO price will continue to appreciate in 5 to 7 years time. However in investment risk management one should also consider the "WHAT IF SCENARIO" and the "what if scenario" is "what will be the valuation of CBIP assuming that all hectares have being planted and CPO prices hit a new low 5 to 6 years from now? Have you investors considered this "WHAT IF SCENARIO" in view of the fact that commodity prices had already down trended and there is a real possibility that the secular commodity prices will continue to downtrend further in the future years?

There is a saying..."A FOOL AND HIS MONEY SHALL SOON BE PARTED". Better pray and hope that this will not be the case for CBIP in 5 to 7 years down the road. If GOD does not answer to your prayers then it's a bit late. My take is when a CPO equipment supplier gets into the game of becoming a medium oil palm plantation company at this late stage it is better to tread on the side on caution rather than be extremely ebullient as this may potentially signify the beginning of a new secular bear cycle for CPO which will LAST YEARS.

kcchongnz,
Thanks for sharing your views on Value Investing. I do see your risk management logic in diversifying into more stock picks of min 10 to 20 stocks or more stocks as due to uncertainty one does want to be overly exposed to any one of the selected stocks although it fulfills your financial selection criteria. This begets the question of whether one has done a thorough work on qualitative and financial evaluation criteria tools checklist prior to stock selection.

Have you ever asked yourself how do you and why do you want to occupy your time to monitor the financial performance of 20 or more stocks in your portfolio? How do you find the time to monitor each individual stock performance, perform good qualitative and quantitative work on each of the 20 or more selected stocks. Wouldn't that begets the second question of whether one is indeed diversifying one's focused attention cum competency away as a result of overseeing and monitoring too many stocks?

Wouldn't it be better to further fine tune on one's stock selection criteria on qualitative and financial performance checklist requirement before investing in any stock thus reducing the no of stocks selected to more manageable situation? Wouldn't that mitigate the risk of selecting an "undervalued gem" that later on turned into a "lemon"? Even if that is so, wouldn't one who is as financially skilled and adept as you are be very fast and responsive in averting an "undervalued gem turning into a lemon" catastrophe as surely that will take some time to do so and one will have enough time to respond in an appropriate and fitting manner before it becomes a "TRUE FINANCIAL LEMON". Unless this may be attributed to subjective rationalization that interferes with well thought out objective financial decision making and it opens up an entirely new chapter on "How to avoid falling in love with one's selected gem stocks"

kahhoeng, it could also be water water water everywhere but not a drop to drink although one truly expects puncak's water to flow into one's mouth!!!

ganasai, whatever skill you have, it is still your own skill right? Please remember that 75% of the sifu's and stock investment experts got it wrong and it had been proven. So do reconsider your decision. So can I put down your stocks as BJCORP and KNM??

kcchong, ganasai, frank soweto, stockoperator
I am rather intrigued by your discussion. It appears that everyone has their favorite stocks to make money. To cut a long story short and to test your future capability of stock selection and be accountable for your stock buy decision, would all of you please select two stocks each which all of you think will outperform up to 31 Dec 2015. You can select and buy any two stocks from Oct 1st 2014 till 31/10/2014 and you can sell anytime or hold till 31st December 2015 as long as you are satisfied with the profits or lack of profits. Lets fix the investment capital to RM 10,000 for each participant.

So please advise the following:
kcchong- what is your stock selected? Uchitec, Tongher?
ganasai- what is your stock selected n buy in price? I assume its KNM, BJCORP unless u advise me otherwise
frank Soweto- what is your stock selected and your buy in price? stock 1, stock 2??
stockoperator- what is your stock selected and buy in price? Is it Padini, other??

hng33,
Water is ALWAYS an evergreen business especially in a growing GDP per capita state like Selangor which has KL, Putrajaya. Once the business community is confident that there will be ample supply and there will be no future supply disruption, the economic takeoff in Selangor will be tremendous and I wont be surprised that Langat 2 Phase 2 may even be fast tracked.

hng33,
Assuming Langat 2 Phase 1 is completed on time by 2017 and Selangor state govt invest RM 1 billion to reduce NRW to 20%(saving of say 500 MLD) by 2017, there will be additional supply of 500 MLD(NRW saved) + 1,130 MLD(Langat 2 Phase 1 supply)= 1,630 MLD which the state govt has to find new users by 2017. That means the Selangor state govt will focus its effort to attract new users by 2017 as it has to start earning $$$$ to pay off the investments.

Meanwhile there will be ongoing negotiation with FED for lower price of Langat 2 Phase 2 as the price savings from Langat 2 Phase 2 will be used to takeover SPLASH or do JV with SPLASH for an eventual SPLASH listing in BURSA in the future.

hng33,
Phase 2 Langat 2 (760 MLD) will be after completion of phase 1( 1,130 MLD in 2017 or later). In view of this the most likely short to medium term scenario is scenario 1 where the state govt will consolidate Puncak, Abbas, Syabas to reduce NRW to 20% which will yield savings of 500-550 MLD and this requires capital outlay of about RM 1.00 billion and thereafter followed possibly by scenario 3. I do not see scenario 2 happening as it requires too much capital investment upfront. The state govt will focus on consolidating Puncak, Abbas,Syabas and reduce NRW from 33% to 20%. Based on scenario 1 SOP valuation the intrinsic worth of KPS is RM 3.12

hngg33,
So a KPS shareholder who buys in at current level faces possibility of any one of the few scenarios happening in the future and a basic financial analysis of each possible scenario augurs well for its future stock price valuation.

erm..lemon slices in lemon juice with ice water is a healthy,perky, vigorous, real snazzy kicker. Lemons are a healthy source of vitamin C , a lemon a day keeps the doctor away... lemon stocks?? please give it a different name say "shit stocks", "chiaksai stocks" or "Tahi stocks" hahahahahaha

hng33, Thanks for your input. Looking at the possible future pan out, Gamuda may even opt to sell its 40% stake in SPLASH directly to KDEB as Gamuda being a public listed company may not be keen to end up being a minority partner in the enlarged water entity

hng33,
Thanks for valuation on the two scenarios.
There is however a third scenario and that is the state govt JV with SPLASH. SPLASH takes over management of all water treatment, distribution and maintenance assets and SPLASH in future is listed on BURSA.

So using the same datas, the volume of treated water from SPLASH will increase to 4,175 MLD from 2,000 MLD in the initial years. KPS EPS will easily double to 30 cents assuming efficient cost structure is realized by SPLASH management quickly, KPS will register minimum RM 150 million earnings per year

KPS SOP
1. Splash value at 10x PE = RM 1,500m
2. Cash hoard = RM 260m
3. Other asset: RM 548m

Total: RM 2.308 bil or RM 4.625/share

Remarks: This will be the best scenario for KPS as its current share of RM 1.49 price will be very undervalued and if KPS declares a dividend policy of paying about 30% to 50% of its Earnings as dividends, KPS shareholders can look for ward to a future dividend payment of 9 cents to 15 cents per share. Moreover KPS shareholders will benefit from the future listing of SPLASH on BURSA.

How will the Langat 2 situation pans out in this scenario 3?

hng33,
Thanks for the info on NRW loss to minimum 20%. So the NRW saved is say 550 MLD which is almost one new water treatment plant capacity in Langat 2@ 565 MLD per treatment plant.

The best option which relies on working with a party with proven track record and which also does not require any further invested capital from Selangor state government is to do a JV with SPLASH to co-manage the water assets and bring this long impasse to an end and get on with the job of reducing NRW to 20% whilst working with FED to fast track the Langat 2 Phase 1.

If this option materializes, one should be fully invested in KPS.

hng33,
Understand that MOU and HOA for Langat 2 is tied in with the Puncak, Syabas, Abbas deal. Now the deal had already been signed and agreed by both FED and Selangor state government the onus is now on the Selangor state govt to reduce NRW immediately as NRW saved is additional revenue, additional profits to the Selangor state govt.

hng33,
SYABAS had stated that NRW is 1,378 MLD (33% of water production) and that means water production in Selangor state is 4,175 MLD and SPLASH produces 2,000 MLD with remaining 16 years concession.

Langat2 Phase 1 plan to supply 1,130 MLD of new water in 2017 to Selangor state whereas Selangor state daily loses 1,378 MLD through NRW. So the NRW of 1,378 MLD is very significant LOSS of Water to POTENTIAL CONSUMERS plus SIGNIFICANT LOST REVENUE, LOST PROFITS & LOST POSITIVE CASH INFLOW FLOW to Selangor State government.

Now that Puncak, Syabas, Abbas had accepted Selangor state government offer, the top priority for the Selangor state government now is to reduce the NRW of 1,378 MLD to zero immediately as this means Increase revenue , Increase profits and Positive cash inflow to Selangor state government. This means immediate job creation in Selangor state in reducing NRW of 1,378 MLD.

SYABAS had stated that in the state of Selangor, NRW is 1,378 MLD (33% of water production); frequency of pipe bursts is high, and therefore a programme of pipe replacement is necessary.

The Langat 2 water treatment plants plan to generate 1,130 MLD (Phase 1) and 760 MLD (Phase 2)

The Langat 2 project will cost Selangor state govt RM 3.6bil for constructing water treatment plants with capacities of 1,130 MLD(Phase 1 with two treatment plants @565 MLD capacity each).

The construction cost to build 44.6km tunnel linking Pahang to Selangor plus constructing the dam in Pahang is estimated at RM 5.05 bil. The total cost of Langat 2 project to generate only 1,130 MLD is RM 8.65 bil( RM 3.6 billion + RM 5.05 billion) . The actual cost may be higher. The water treated from Langat 2 just only for phase 1 with 1,130 MLD(RM 8.65 Billion) will be very expensive for Selangor residents.

Phase 2 water treatment of 760 MLD has not been given and is pending after completion of phase 1 of Langat2 water treatment plants(1,130 MLD capacity plants).If phase 2 costing is costed in, it will be even more expensive for Selangor state residents

The total estimated cost of langat 2 to supply 1,130 MLD of treated water is RM 8.65 Billion whereas SYABAS had stated that the NRW loss is 1,378 MLD (33% of water production).

It was also reported by Gamuda MD Datuk Lin that Investments to reduce non-revenue water from 33% to 20% in Selangor could easily cost over RM1bil.

OBSERVATION: The cost to reduce NRW of 1,378 MLD is much lesser and more cost effective than to spend RM 8.65 Billion to generate 1,130 MLD. NRW Water loss saved means more Profit and Revenue gain for the Selangor state government.

Reported on Fri, Jul 5, 2013
Syarikat Bekalan Air Selangor (Syabas) has used state funds meant for reducing water wastage to buy cars and make office repairs, said Selangor Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim.

The MB told the state sitting today that in 2011 the state allocated RM784 million to the water concessionaire to reduce the company's non-revenue water (NRW) rate to 20 percent.

Khalid said Syabas' NRW is at present still at 33 percent despite the funding, and that the concessionaire had only spent 32 percent of the allocation to the effort.

"The rest according to the national audit, was used to purchase cars and make office repairs, that have no connection with NRW reduction," said Khalid.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

The state govt should target cutting down NRW from 33% down to zero % instead of 20% and this should yield substantial incremental revenue and profits to the state on a sustained and long term basis.

There are two viable options
- Buy over SPLASH as per 2009 offer(more investment capital for Selangor state), proceed to cut down NRW (Non Revenue Water) from 33% to zero % or
- JV with SPLASH, proceed to cut down NRW from 33% to zero %(less investment capital for Selangor state govt as there is no need to buy over SPLASH)
IF NRW of 33% is controlled and cut down to zero , there will be substantial volume of water saved which will generate immediate incremental revenue and profits. The cost impact will be the incremental cost of pipes etc to cut down NRW from 33% to zero % whereas the benefit will be the profits from water loss by cutting NRW of 33% to zero %. The benefits of sustained profits over the long term will definitely pay for the cost of investment in pipes etc to cut NRW of 33% down to zero %.

The recent market correction was a re-pricing of risks in a slowing global economy in anticipation of credit tightening by the FED with interest rate increase hence dousing valuation. It is very obvious that any credit tightening measures wont be good for stock valuation. Last Friday, it was not a certainty that QE will end in view of the slowing economy and consequently a de-pricing of risks is already taking place. Rather than predicting a dead cat bounce and waiting for it, I would rather focus on
- will the FED delay tapering as world economy slows, how long will the delay be
- will ECB and Germany QE aggressively.
- will the Euro depreciate to 1.15 to 1.10 USD or even parity with USD as a result of aggressive QE by ECB?
- will Germany's and the European economy rebound with a weakened euro?
- will ebola be contained(the general expectation is it will be)
- will crude oil stabilize at USD 80 - USD 90 per barrel and how would the major producers decide
- if the European economies rebound, what will be the price of crude oil then?
- will China's economy improve

A de-pricing of risk indeed had already happened since last Friday and barring any explosive outbreak of ebola, the stock market will resume its upward climb in Q4 2014 into 2015 if the above scenario pans out gradually.

At this stage, I will long stocks.

The recent market correction was a re-pricing of risks in a slowing global economy in anticipation of credit tightening by the FED with interest rate increase hence dousing valuation. It is very obvious that any credit tightening measures wont be good for stock valuation. Last Friday, it was not a certainty that QE will end in view of the slowing economy and consequently a de-pricing of risks is already taking place. Rather than predicting a dead cat bounce and waiting for it, I would rather focus on
- will the FED delay tapering as world economy slows, how long will the delay be
- will ECB and Germany QE aggressively.
- will the Euro depreciate to 1.15 to 1.10 USD or even parity with USD as a result of aggressive QE by ECB?
- will Germany's and the European economy rebound with a weakened euro?
- will ebola be contained(the general expectation is it will be)
- will crude oil stabilize at USD 80 - USD 90 per barrel and how would the major producers decide
- if the European economies rebound, what will be the price of crude oil then?
- will China's economy improve

A de-pricing of risk indeed had already happened since last Friday and barring any explosive outbreak of ebola, the stock market will resume its upward climb in Q4 2014 into 2015 if the above scenario pans out gradually.

At this stage, I will long stocks.

The recent market correction was a re-pricing of risks in a slowing global economy in anticipation of credit tightening by the FED with interest rate increase hence dousing valuation. It is very obvious that any credit tightening measures wont be good for stock valuation. Last Friday, it was not a certainty that QE will end in view of the slowing economy and consequently a de-pricing of risks is already taking place. Rather than predicting a dead cat bounce and waiting for it, I would rather focus on
- will the FED delay tapering as world economy slows, how long will the delay be
- will ECB and Germany QE aggressively.
- will the Euro depreciate to 1.15 to 1.10 USD or even parity with USD as a result of aggressive QE by ECB?
- will Germany's and the European economy rebound with a weakened euro?
- will ebola be contained(the general expectation is it will be)
- will crude oil stabilize at USD 80 - USD 90 per barrel and how would the major producers decide
- if the European economies rebound, what will be the price of crude oil then?
- will China's economy improve

A de-pricing of risk indeed had already happened since last Friday and barring any explosive outbreak of ebola, the stock market will resume its upward climb in Q4 2014 into 2015 if the above scenario pans out gradually.

At this stage, I will long stocks.

The recent market correction was a re-pricing of risks in a slowing global economy in anticipation of credit tightening by the FED with interest rate increase hence dousing valuation. It is very obvious that any credit tightening measures wont be good for stock valuation. Last Friday, it was not a certainty that QE will end in view of the slowing economy and consequently a de-pricing of risks is already taking place. Rather than predicting a dead cat bounce and waiting for it, I would rather focus on
- will the FED delay tapering as world economy slows, how long will the delay be
- will ECB and Germany QE aggressively.
- will the Euro depreciate to 1.15 to 1.10 USD or even parity with USD as a result of aggressive QE by ECB?
- will Germany's and the European economy rebound with a weakened euro?
- will ebola be contained(the general expectation is it will be)
- will crude oil stabilize at USD 80 - USD 90 per barrel and how would the major producers decide
- if the European economies rebound, what will be the price of crude oil then?
- will China's economy improve

A de-pricing of risk indeed had already happened since last Friday and barring any explosive outbreak of ebola, the stock market will resume its upward climb in Q4 2014 into 2015 if the above scenario pans out gradually.

At this stage, I will long stocks.

lcwin, Thanks for sharing your input. For me I will go for
- turnaround stocks
- stocks that is bombed out but with improving fundamentals
- stocks with fresh catalyst
- dividends is not my main criteria but capital appreciation is.

bsngpg, I know how some people will decide but How will you decide?

So what will be your decision?
- go for High yield
- go for >50% discount below net asset value
- go for turnaround stories
- go for transformation
- go for a wild ride
- go for Trading
- keep cash in bank and wait for market to kaput

Better do all the smelling to your heart's fulfillment. Just don't part with your cash though hahahahahaha

No I shan't
Go where darkness reigns , where the draculas are and where no one dares to go
You shall enjoy the fruits of your labour using high hurdle rates of investment in identifying G spot stocks that thrills you to the hilt..hahahahaahha

.. better go chase after all the female draculas hahahahahaha

So what will be your decision?
- go for High yield
- go for >50% discount below net asset value
- go for turnaround stories
- go for transformation
- go for a wild ride
- go for Trading
- keep cash in bank and wait for market to kaput

I welcome your valued input on the above decision choices with stock recommendations except waiting for market crash hahahahaha

The light shined forth and darkness disappears at an instant..hahahahah

The recent market correction was indeed a re-pricing of risks in a slowing global economy in anticipation of credit tightening by the FED with interest rate increase hence dousing valuation. It is very obvious that any credit tightening measures wont be good for stock valuation. Of late it is not a certainty that QE will end in view of the slowing economy and consequently a de-pricing of risks is taking place. I would focus on
- will the FED dealy tapering as world economy slows
- will ECB and Germany aggressively QE.
- will the Euro depreciate to 1.15 to 1.10 USD as a result of aggressive QE by ECB?
- will ebola be contained(the general expectation is it will be)
- will crude oil stabilize at USD 80 - USD 90 per barrel
- will China's economy improve

de-pricing of risk indeed is already happening since last Friday and barring any explosive outbreak of ebola, the stock market will resume its upward climb in Q4 2014 into 2015.

so bull is coming and everyone is here to ride the bjcorp bull ?? and strong hands to hold onto the bull??

Any investor has to observe, think, compare, judge and decide. The notion of an absolute valuation or the "absolute intrinsic worth" is just a mirage as the intrinsic value is comprised of tangible plus intangible factors that determines its market value at any one time.

I will only focus on "undervalue" and act on "not undervalue anymore, so good riddance" hahahaha

In a volatile market, it is better to be opportunistic and nimble than be sorry. In a benign market , high dividend yields is good investment but in reality does benign market exist at all times in the world of stocks? The low beta high dividend stocks in benign market can also transform into medium or high beta stocks in volatile market if earnings, roe,roce, roic disappoints. In essence there is no such axiom as "sure win strategy at all times with high dividend stocks" but there is an axiom at all times in "the pursuit of preservation of capital."

Never ever underestimate the power, financial creativity of the FED in responding at the appropriate time. The FED had just responded n do expect more in the future.

Never ever underestimate the power, financial creativity of the FED in responding at the appropriate time. The FED had just responded n do expect more in the future.

Joeylee, Use Fibonacci readings. 23.6% retracement support is at 1,758. KLCI did not touched this support level. Lowest was 1767.77. Use basic chart info for decision making , not complicated readings.

Taufikshafii, Dato Wan sold @1.67 but buy back @1.51.

Joeylee, what does your instinct tells you after reading the "economic data"

Is the whole world commerce coming to an end? Why subject oneself to such bearish sentiments and consequently go on panic sell? Will the stock market crash or just go through a deep correction? If you think it's going to crash then stay away and wait, wait and wait just like TTB of iCapital. What will you do when you expect it to crash but it did not crash as per your expectation? Meanwhile there is buying n selling happening every second in this world including here in Bursa. For very seller there is always buyer. The seller sells with panic emotions whereas the buyer buys with confidence and knowledge that sentiments will improve soon.

So what has changed? Its only your perception that has changed. Why do you perceive it that way?

Dear All forumers in KNM forum,
The preconditions for market crash does not exist as had happened in 2007/2008. US economy is gaining strength due to Oil & Gas n manufacturing strength. As manufacturing further gains momentum, investment in US infrastructure is a MUST. Moreover the anticipated opening of the expanded Panama canal in late 2015 or early 20156 will further enhance the competitiveness of US suppliers in LNG etc. Europe is having growth issues but is awash with Euro glut which in time will lead to lower Euro versus USD FX rate as the excess Euro will invest in US Bonds and in emerging markets. Euro will go to parity with USD by 2017, if not lower. Emerging markets will restructure their economies to encourage more foreign & domestic investment, deepen the industrialization to move up the economic value added chain. The global energy consumption will increase over time as demand will in time outstrip the supply.

My take is market will correct for a little while more but the world economic momentum will gather more pace in the medium term. Yes in the short term there will be short term aberrations that may unsettle the market but the wiser ones who can see things through will benefit.

Albukhary, The preconditions for market crash does not exist as had happened in 2007/2008. US economy is gaining strength due to Oil & Gas n manufacturing strength. As manufacturing further gains momentum, investment in US infrastructure is a MUST. Moreover the anticipated opening of the expanded Panama canal in late 2015 or early 20156 will further enhance the competitiveness of US suppliers in LNG etc. Europe is having growth issues but is awash with Euro glut which in time will lead to lower Euro versus USD FX rate as the excess Euro will invest in US Bonds and in emerging markets. Euro will go to parity with USD by 2017, if not lower. Emerging markets will restructure their economies to encourage more foreign & domestic investment, deepen the industrialization to move up the economic value added chain. The global energy consumption will increase over time as demand will in time outstrip the supply.

My take is market will correct for a little while more but the world economic momentum will gather more pace in the medium term. Yes in the short term there will be short term aberrations that may unsettle the market but the wiser ones who can see things through will benefit.

joeylee, Good morning to you. May I know what TA software that u use to arrive at such "nice target price"

0.485 already? u should be happy that its 0.485 . go buy some more tmrow. this stock downtrended past 3 years and already bottomed out. u buy at this price, u wont lose much but have alot to gain when it flies. for sure bjcorp will fly UP