Will BULLISH force eventually take out BEARISH force at RM 8.52 n head past RM 9.0???

If u think " NO "..then Sell
If u think " YES" ..then BUY

BULLISH forces will head north to challenge BEARISH force cozily nestled in the hill at RM 8.52.

Based on charts...high chance n good likelihood that Global Equity markets will surge... including BURSA

Moreover Winter is coming soon in the Western world and they need ENERGY to keep them warm

Market always look to the future..not the past as past info had already been discounted...so will the future performance for HRC (Q3, Q4 etc) be worse off, same or much better than Q2 or maybe Q1 results???

Biz as usual in the context of trend up in crackspreads relative to previous quarters....plus the new demand for crude oil and crude oil futures price once current inventory is being depleted at accelerating rate!!!

Good chance crude oil price be much higher than now come end September 2017.

Some are asking...What will be the impact(ie. stock gain) on HRC Q3 profit assuming its biz as usual?????

A trend follower during strong uptrend wins over a contrarian during strong uptrend

High possibility n good chance that HRC GAPS UP on Tuesday morning.

The great opportunity to buy on retracement for a strong uptrending stock like HRC was the selling climax experienced recently

High chance bullish forces will nudge HRC price higher within next 3 months

Opinions r good to have to boost one's ego but what matters most is price action in the near term.

Based on known crude oil price behaviour from July to August n likely crude oil price action in September futures, high chance Q3 result will be better than Q2.

There is also a chance that Q3 may surpass Q1 result.

The question that begets investors now is ....amongst the 3 refineries in Msia, which refinery will deliver superior EPS, better cash flows within the next 6 mths to 1 year??

Crude oil price trend for July to August is already known. The unknown is crude oil price behaviour for September n beyond. Based on this, there is high chance that Q3 results will be better than Q2 based on 66.6% known info on crude oil prices for Q3. More pertinent is ...can Q3 be better than Q1 result? There is also a chance that it may better or surpass Q1 result. 


On a longer term basis, there is high concurrence among the experts that crude oil price remains benign with slight upside bias to say USD 55 per bbl. 

Given this scenario, all refineries will do well. The differentiating factor amongst refineries is on the cost of production, quality of management in managing the refinery assets.

All forecasts r probabilistic n have varying degrees of accuracy n confidence kevel as the key element is time duration for the forecast. 

Long term forecast of 2 years time duration in the future has high chance for errors in assumptions, has low confidence level n consequently low chance for accuracy. 

However short term forecast for remaining time duration of 1 month till end September has higher confidence level n higher chance for accuracy. 

Based on latest trend in crude oil price, there is high chance Q3 results will be much better than Q2.

HRC price is on uptrend n is advancing forward after the recent expected correction.

High probability Q3 result will be much better than Q2.

HRC continued to advance n closed at RM 7.52 today. Next target to overcome is RM 8.52. When RM 8.52 is taken out, Bullish forces will continue to advance.  

With expectation of benign crude oil prices in Q3 albeit with a slight upside bias from July onward, there is high chance that bullish forces will continue to advance on expectation of a much better if not spectacular Q3 results due within 3 mths.

Next target for BULLISH to overcome BEARISH is @ RM 8.52

Once Bullish convincingly overcome bearish at RM 7.35, the next target for Bullish to overcome bearish is RM 8.52

If future HRC price action hits RM 11.13, HRC will trend much higher after retracement.

No need to wait till end of Sept ..the naked chart says so...

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Posted by hng33 > Aug 29, 2017 04:28 PM | Report Abuse
To estimate how high next Q3 EPS result, perhaps need to wait till end of next month Sept to have better information on 3 month gasoline crack spread margin and crude oil price at the end of Sept.

IF HRC continue to advance or bullish continue to overcome bearish,
the medium term Target Price for HRC is RM 11.13

HRC will continue to uptrend after yesterday's selling climax

Immediate Resistance @7.35. Once bullish overcome bearish at 7.35, the next Resistance is @8.52

High chance bullish will overcome bearish after the selling climax yesterday.

MNCs PRACTISE TRANSFER PRICING. THE OBJECTIVE OF TRANSFER PRICING IS TO ENABLE 100% OWNED TO MAKE MORE PROFITS THAN "NOT 100% OWNED" COMPANIES.

JUST ASK WHY HRC CAN PRODUCE SUCH HIGH PROFITS AFTER TAKING OVER WHEREAS SHELL COULD NOT HACK IT ALL THESE YEARS???

REFINERIES ARE INDEED BENEFICIARIES OF BENIGN CRUDE OIL PRICES. HOWEVER CRUDE OIL PRICE DO RANGE UP AND RANGE DOWN EVEN IN BENIGN PRICE SITUATION SAY FROM USD 45 TO USD 55 PER BBL.

IF CRUDE OIL TRENDS DOWN SAY FROM USD 55 TO USD 45 (ASSUMING FX RATE IS CONSTANT) DURING ONE QUARTER, REFINERIES WILL MAKE LESS MONEY RELATIVE TO WHEN CRUDE OIL TRENDS UP IN ONE QUARTER FROM USD 45 TO USD 55.

OIL REFINERIES MAKE CONSISTENT MARGINS IN BENIGN PRICE SITUATION ON PROVISO VARIANCE IN CRUDE OIL PRICE IS VERY MINIMAL AND TOTAL COSTS ARE WITHIN CONTROL.

TRENDING DOWN CRUDE OIL PRICE OVER ONE QUARTER JUST CHANGE THE INPUT COST AND WORKING CAPITAL AND LEAD TO FALLS IN THE SELLING PRICE OF THE REFINED PRODUCTS. SO PROFIT MARGINS WILL BE SQUEEZED WHEN CRUDE OIL PRICE TRENDS DOWN IN ONE QUARTER.

LIKEWISE TRENDING UP CRUDE OIL PRICE OVER ONE QUARTER TOO CHANGE THE INPUT COST AND WORKING CAPITAL AND LEAD TO RISES IN THE SELLING PRICE OF THE REFINED PRODUCTS.

SO A REFINERY WILL MAKE MORE PROFITS DURING BENIGN TRENDING UP RATHER THAN BENIIGN TRENDING DOWN OVER ONE QUARTER.

PICE ACTION IS MOST IMPORTANT TO FOCUS ON RATHER THAN FEELING GOOD HAVING OPINION

HRC IS UPTRENDING STOCK.

PRICE RETRACED TO SUPPORT DUE TO PANIC SELLING RESULTING IN A SELLING CLIMAX TODAY.

AFTER SELLING CLIMAX TODAY, HRC PRICE WILL CONTINUE UPTREND TO TEST ITS OLD HIGH.

NEXT Q3 RESULT WILL BE MUCH BETTER THAN JUST RELEASED Q2 RESULT AS CRUDE OIL PRICE TRENDED UP FROM USD 45 (from 3rd WEEK JUNE 2017) TO USD 52 NOW. IN Q2 , CRUDE OIL TRENDED DOWN FROM USD 56 to USD 45.

HIGH CHANCE PRICE MOVES UP AFTER SELLING CLIMAX.

PANIC SELLING culminating into a SELLING CLIMAX today is a GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY.

Price gapped down on opening. Sentiment progressively grew overtly bearish culminating in price closing@7.03 very near to lowest of 7.02.

Stochastic was oversold, price close with inverted hammer. Price now is at key support. Volume today was highest due to panic selling sparked by overtly bearish sentiments which drove price down to 7.03. Panic selling sparked by maximum fear resulted in selling climax today

The downtrend in crude oil price in Q2 obviously had a negative impact on HRC bottom line. Likewise crude oil had trended up from USD 45 in 3rd week june to USD 52 currently and it may creep up higher by year end. This will have a postive impact on HRC Q3 result due in 3months time or earlier.

HRC fundamentals is intact, price is on uptrend and is now resting at support.

The panic selling today was a buying opportunity at the lows.

If market sees that HRC will make better future EPS than latest QR released today, HRC price will trend up.

Market has already discounted the latest QR n HRC had already corrected before the release of the QR.

Market now looks to the future. If market sees the future result to be better, HRC price will move up.

Based on HRC chart pattern, HRC will rocket up from now onward.

The first TP@7.50 was hit, HRC went above 7.50 and corrected. The recent correction from 11/8/17 to 16/8/17 was a good opportunity to buy at support for strong uptrending stock like HRC.

Next TP for HRC is at 9.60. If HRC hit above 9.60 , it will retrace but will continue its uptrend and go much higher than 9.60

Stocks that r totally devoid of fundamentals will be pumped up n dumped n most of these r penny stocks

Earnings turnaround stocks in the likes of HRC that r deeply undervalued will be re-rated upwards by the market towards fair valuation.

If I m in penny stocks devoid of fundamentals..I will be extremely concerned

When I m in deeply undervalued stock like HRC, I will ride the profits up towards fair valuation. However if the fundamentals keep on improving..the fair valuation will go higher.

Thanks probability for your support.

Probability,

Thanks for the information. You have arrived at 20 cts n 45 cts per quarter for PETRONM n HRC respectively in a scenario where fuel oil crack spread reverts to mean.

Plse advise whether u had factored in planned plant maintenance shutdown to arrive at the average figures or in the event of a plant maintenance shutdown, a full quarter has to be taken off in arriving at an annualised earnings per share?

Thanking you for your support

Wah pang72 is trend trader Woh...don't try to buy from Pang below 10..he won't sell to u..

Paoerplane2016

Walauwei

Aseng

Everyone here r experienced to trade at your own risk lah
No need warnings based on self imposed dogma lah
Most important ..understand yourself more, your own trading or investment psychology, your risk appetite, practise good money managenent skills

Look at price action
Understand n practise Dow Theories

We may disagree but I still see u as a friend..

Look at KYY track record on successful winners
Have u studied his track record on successful winners
It's easily 4 to 5 baggers or even more in specific stocks
KYY just got in below 6.0 ..u think he sell meh?

So if u want to win big with HRC..ride your profits up

Aseng
Have u seriously asked yourself what is your trading psychology 
What is your risk profile, your risk apoetite 
What is your money management ? How much risk u willing by to take with HRC?

Do u decide based on facts or based on your self imposed dogma 

What is your trading methodology? R u any of the following 
Scalper, Trend trader, Reversal trader, Scale trader, Investor 

Icon8888 is investor, Stock raider is deep Fundamental investor 
What r u?

Aseng is counter trend trader becoz he scared KYY sell
Aseng want to sell before KYY sell
KYY is trend trader
When price dip at support KYY buy some more
Aseng not trend trader
Trend trader will ride trend up
Counter trend trader will lose to trend trader in strong uptrend stocks

Suregain waiting to sapu all from aseng
After that aseng buy at higher price loh..

If HRC in sideways..can do what aseng do loh
But HRC shot up into strong uptrend...ride your profits up loh

Be happy ..Count your blessings..Be grateful u r making money...

Make money already but still want to quarrel...lol

HRC party already started..all having great fun making money in HRC party...JAKS party maybe starting soon..