btw guys some comforting words for y'all, if you buy below RM 1.38, you are buying the cheapest sahre in the whole of track-able history since 15 years ago in 2006. Congratulations to you all in advance!

from Drib-hicom: Pursuant to Government’s approval, Pos Malaysia Berhad has implemented the new tariff for commercial postage and international businesses. As part of its transformation agenda to improve service efficiency and enhance customer experience, Pos Malaysia will continue to invest in digitalisation and e-commerce infrastructure to take advantage of the booming digital economy. This includes an upgraded track and trace system that is expected to be operational by mid-2020. These initiatives will elevate Pos Malaysia’s operational efficiencies and hence improve its financial performance.

He wanna buy more cuz he sold 1.10 but it went up to 1.12 haha

everyone selling their shares to cover gloves margin call

Lai liaooooo JAYC YOu REady boh??

https://www.edgeprop.my/content/pos-malaysia%E2%80%99s-land-value-ripening-not-khazanah

POS Malaysia brickfields Land beside KL sentral used to sell 1,500 psf, book value RM 12 m now and is worth 176m 10 years ago. Now?

https://www.thestar.com.my/metro/metro-news/2019/11/30/pos-malaysia-locks-deal-for-more-secure-parcel-delivery

Love it. Contactless delivery. No time wasted for Posman

https://kenanga.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/POS-200129-CU.pdf

Before MCO or increase in demand for Courier delivery

GDEX profit per quarter RM 10 million, 1 year RM 40 million, Market Cap RM 2 billion.

Their sales 88m/quarter, 100% increase = 176m per quarter. PRofit will double to RM 20 per quarter or 80 m per year, but their market cap is RM 2 billion not for no reasons. The big Singaporean funds are expecting a rate hike in courier rates already.

Say they up 10% in courier rates.
Gdex to gain profit from:
1) Volume: 10m per quarter becomes 20m
2) Price: RM 176m sales x 10% = 17.6m
Total 34.6m per quarter or RM 138.4m per year
PE 15 = RM 2 billion.

Easy maths. Yes. They intend to hike the rates.
Look at their traffic. They have been working overload!! they need to up the price. IT is inevitable to justify their 2b share price.

Dear all, Gdex is now in over capacity mode, with at least 100% increase in volume a day. Their Sales last QR is 88m, we expect 176m next QR.

Explanation on the market cap of 2 billion at the moment. Many of the major investors are actually pricing in rate hike into the market cap of Gdex now.

with sales up 100% to say RM 176 million, their profit is expected to double, say 20 million. But how does this justify the 2 billion valuation? The Singapore funds are not stupid! They know that currently demand outstrips supply.

So if Gdex ups their parcel price by RM 0.5 per parcel or 10%, their expected change in profit is from
1) volume - Double to RM 20m
2) Hike in price of 10% - 176m x 10% = 17.6m
Total = 37.6m per quarter

Per year = 37.6 x 4 = RM 150 million profit before tax.
PE 14.6 = RM 2 billion market cap.

SO GUYS!! GDEX IS CORRECTLY PRICED. They expect a rate hike due to hike in price.
The profit sensitivity to price hike is huge due to the big volume!!

POS Malaysia with RM 0.50 hike in parcel, is expected to gain RM 140 million per year just with 10% rate hike!

So Gdex should benefit a lot when the demand has outpaced the supply.

Remember what happened to glove sector when their backorder time was 1 year? They upped 20% on glove prices. And their shares doubled. The same can happen to POS. IF POS ups 10% of parcel prices, their profit change a year is RM 140 million. Which shareholder won't love to hear this? RM 140 million!!

if POS up RM 0.50 per parcel sent (10% of price now), their annual profit up RM 140 million.

Also i expect POS to announce a rate hike on courier division soon. Every 50 cents up in a parcel sent out is RM 35 million Profit before tax for POS. (770k x RM 0.50 x 90 days).

IT's crazy!! RM 35m profit from a mere 10% hike in courier price! With demand sustaining after pre-mco, there's plenty of upside for POS.

Terence bro, outside world is unstable. We buy what we see and hear. POS courier has been on a spike. even their newly revamped website (sendparcel) experienced 300% spike in traffic visit: https://pro.similarweb.com/#/website/worldwide-overview/sendparcel.poslaju.com.my/*/999/3m?webSource=Total

Their courier business is over the roof! Just like gloves, when demand outstrips supply, what happens? Adjustment on price. The problem in courier segment in the past was due to price competition. Price competition is due to demand < supply. So when demand > supply, price will go up. Profit margin will up too.

I love their hike in postal rate. Postal segment is the one dragging the group down everytime. Now with rates up 100%, if they breakeven i'm already very happy. Because if they have 0 loss from Postal, POS market cap is essentially 2.5 of Gdex (2 billion), a pure play courier player because their sales is 2.5 times. We are looking at 5b company if their postal division is not making loss.

abc, i die die also don't want to sell my POS shares even though the outside world is so tempting. Let's celebrate after it hits RM 1.50 :)

It's about time... Today or tomorrow.

POS take on It's aviation being hit by covid 19:

Mail Postal - Positive
The recent revision of the commercial postage rates, effective 1st February 2020, allows Pos Malaysia to continue serving its USO amidst a structural decline in mail volume and the constantly growing number of addresses, from 7.6 million in 2015 to over nine (9) million addresses today. Expanding and diversifying our touchpoints allow us to reach a wider customer base. We expect a sustainable financial performance from mail & retail services.

Courier - Positive
We will continue to ride the booming eCommerce wave. By providing better customer experience, we will obtain a distinct competitive advantage in an increasingly competitive and crowded courier market. We will increase our courier market share by promoting the adoption of our online shipping platform Pos Laju SendParcel and revamped Track & Trace, expanding courier touchpoints through agent outlets, as well as improving utilisation of parcel lockers across 255 locations nationwide.

Aviation - Neutral
The aviation industry is expected to be adversely impacted by Covid-19 throughout 2020. Domestic and international air travels are expected to remain low. The main disruptions for Pos Aviation will be mainly on passenger movements and inflight meal production. However, cargo handling is expected to be resilient and contribute a larger portion of the business’ revenue. As a result, the company will continuously optimise its resources to reflect the industry outlook and customise its services to meet the requirements of the new norm."

Logstics - Negative
In 2020, we expect the logistics sector to be negatively impacted by Covid-19, with subdued demand from customers affected by the restricted movement order imposed by the government. The shift towards an asset-lighter operating model will mitigate the impact and form the foundation to achieve higher yields for our portfolios once economic activity picks up.

International - Positive
We are optimistic on the growth of the regional eCommerce market and its positive impact on the international cross-border volume. Notwithstanding the above, the Group is expected to remain resilient in the face of continued global uncertainty brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Revenue Contribution
Postal: 189m 31.90%
Courier: 197m 33.24%
International: 39.5m 6.65%
Logistics: 73m 12.28%
Aviation 65m 10.94%
Others: 29.7m 5.00%

It seems to be there is more positive impact on major revenue contributors than negative impact on Logistics only (12.28% of revenue)

Lance, for me when trading its dangerous to be 100% stubborn on the prospect of a share. Many people lost money as a result. I like to do fact checks time and then to ensure we're in correct direction.

Big funds selling is good indication of their take on the company's future and they have big influence on the share price too, so it matters a lot as a fact check. It is a relief as it seems to be a blanket adjustment across other shares as well.

I may be bullish on POS but i might sell the next day if the market is not doing well. That's how it is. Tide can turn anytime and we have to have high guards all the time, especially in the current situation.

JPMCB NA FOR VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND
5,086,190

JPMCB NA FOR VANGUARD EMERGING MARKETS STOCK INDEX FUND
6,417,600

JPMCB NA FOR EMERGING MARKETS SMALL CAPITALISATION EQUITY INDEX
NONLENDABLE FUND
1,275,400

These are holdings of JP Morgan as of 31st Dec 2019.

This explains why there was a huge drop yesterday with 3.6m in queue because they were taking POS out of their MSCI index.

Now i'm more relieved. The drop in POS is due to their portfolio rebalancing. good news for me. It was nothing related with fundamental change, it was not EPF or KWAP's work (Both are top 3 major shareholders).

Someone was picking aggressively at RM 1.10. So hopefully we're bottomed out after Monday!

Do you know that POS also has exposure to gold? ArRahnu - "Starting as a gold asset-based micro-financing provider, Pos ArRahnu has successfully transformed into a one-stop gold centre that provides Islamic micro-financing services, buying and selling of physical gold, retailing of gold jewellery and safe-keeping of gold. Pos ArRahnu currently operates a total of 80 outlets located within selected post offices."

Revenue stream comes from ArRahnu related services (such islamic pawn broking, gold safe keeping, buy-back used gold) as
well as selling investment precious metals (gold bar & gold dinar).

Total Gold bought back
2018 239 kg
2019 158 kg

Total Gold Sold
2018 66.79 kg
2019 31.88 kg

Net Gold FY 18 & 19 = 298.33 kg
1kg = 55,000 USD.
Gold has gone up 1300 usd/ounce (march 2019) - 1600usd /ounce march'20 ) = 23% increase

Just based on valuation of the net gold they're holding in 2018/19, their valuation have increased by RM 16.6m against preceding QR. I'm not sure if they'll reflect this in their QR or not.

Read carefully June 2019 Comment on March 2019's impairment: The group recorded a lower loss before tax of RM15.5 million in the current quarter ended 30
June 2019 compared to RM133.7 million in the preceding quarter ended 31 March 2019 mainly
due to higher cost of sales and operating expenses from one off charges of impairment in the
goodwill of Logistics segment of RM39.6 million and provision for onerous contract for the redelivery charges of leased aircraft of RM44.0 million incurred in the preceding quarter.

March 2019 losses mainly come from impairment and one-off charge. Operating profit wasnt that bad. So we are likely going back to the black very soon.

2019 March QR Results

Postal Revenue 189,699
Courier Revenue: 197,642
International: 39, 538
Logistics : 73,042
Aviation: 65,050
Others: 29,708
Total: 594,679 m

Assume International, Logistics, Aviation, others all drop 20%
Assume Courier Revenue up 0%
Assume Postal Volume drop 15%, avg price + 100% (1 feb - 31 march)

2020 Revenue Forecast
Postal Revenue 267,665 (+24.27%)
Courier Revenue: 197,642 (+ 0 %)
International: 31,630 (-20%)
Logistics : 58,434 (-20%)
Aviation: 52,040 (-20%)
Others: 23,766 (-20%)
Total: 631,177 m (+6% or RM 40,176,000)

DRB had sales car increase of 20% for this quarter, so logistics should still do well.

Last March PBT = -133,658, inclusive of Impairment on goodwill: 46m+ Re-delivery one off charge of 44m.
Net Operating loss = RM 43.658 m .

If our revenue increases by RM 40.16 m, we are expecting around RM 3.498 m Loss.

If This QR is RM 3.498m loss, next QR is a BOMB.
200% volume increase in courier, RM 14m/year fuel savings, RM 10.8m/year interest savings. to offset the - RM 3.498 loss this QR.

Potentially looking
Net change in profit for June QR 2020
Postal Services: + RM 103,251 Revenue (100%+ in rate, 15% down in volume)
Courier Services: + 47.8m (200% Courier volume (NP June'19 x 200%))
International: - RM 16,441 (50% drop due to MCO/CMCO)
Logistics: - RM 37,717 (50% drop due to MCO/CMCO)
Aviation: - RM 31,525 (50% drop due to MCO/CMCO)
Others: - RM 14,782 (50% drop due to MCO/CMCO)

Total = +50,586m
+ Fuel Savings 3.5m (assume RM 1.7/l N95 but likely much lower)
+ Interest Savings RM 2.7m (30% drop in Interest)
= + RM 56.78m - 15m (Loss BT June 2019)
= RM 41.78 Profit before Tax

POS has the biggest logistic fleet in Malaysia of 15,000 riders. They have the highest exposure to Oil drop than any company.

POS is therefore likely to turn into black the next QR due to favourable increase in parcel volume as well as Postal Services. IF the other sectors go back to normal, we will expect less than 50% drop in Revenue which translates into more profit for POS.

• The journey into mid-mile automation processing began at the Integrated Processing Centres, located in Shah Alam and KLIA, with an aggregated processing capacity of 530,000 items per day.

• During FP2019, the Group continued the automation journey through the upgrading of 20 distribution centres with semiautomatic sorting machines nationwide. Consequently, this has reduced man-hour involved during processing, with savings of approximately 1-2 hours per day. This has also increased the volume of parcel processing per hour of up to 60%.

POS has also installed automation centres and increased their capacity to meet the demand for courier services. They have increased their capacity by 60%. Potentially, this results in 60% decrease in variable costs (eg. 2 person can do 3 people's job now), resulting in lower costs for increase in volume. So the courier segment profit margin should increase.

If Gdex with Revenue of 88m and profit of circ. 6 million is worth RM 2.1b. How much is POS with revenue of 200m and profit of RM 24m worth? RM 6b? haha. How much can other segments be impaired? more than 1 billion? I think The Courier force is too big to be ignored. Moreover, Logistics and Aviation have resumed to normal now with CMCO. 117% increase in postal rates, drop in fuel price, and interest rates are in POS favour.

There may be short term challenges reflected in this QR, but i hope Shareholders here look at long term into next QR to reap the results of our patience.

No worries Dave, we welcome your input here. It's a good fact check and I hope POS with Tan Sri's daughter on board and their efforts into digitalisation don't disappoint us.

By the way, did anyone notice POS has Deferred Tax Asset of 196m due to their losses in 2018 and 2019? When they start earning money they'll save RM 196m from tax in the future.

aviation constitutes about 13% of their total revenue. They have impaired 93 million for logistics and aviation last quarter. POS also sold 50% of their equity in POS Aviation Engineering to Singapore airlines. I'm hoping the impact is cushioned. I believe that the impact on aviation industry and logistics will really be felt in June QR (MCO started in March 18) but it might be offset by the other gains i mentioned above.

"Pos Logistics Berhad will refocus its business which will see it move into higher-margin and scalable services and shifting its operational model to become asset-lighter. The growing automotive sector contributes greatly to Pos Logistics’ business and we foresee positive growth in 2020.

Pos Aviation is expected to remain resilient in the face of continued global uncertainty brought about by Covid-19. A strategic partnership with SIA Engineering Company (SIAEC) will enable Pos Aviation’s engineering services to tap into the global maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) market, enhance its technical expertise and expand its product offerings."
30/05/2020 9:28 PM

Opps, sorry, this is posted in the wrong forum. Should be in POS

On 28 January 2020, shares in Pos Malaysia Bhd rose as much as 10% in early trade this morning after the national courier said it will raise postage rates for registered mail, commercial mail and small parcels below 2kg, effective Feb 1.

At 9.05am, Pos Malaysia rose 11 sen to RM1.55, valuing it at RM1.21 billion. The stock had earlier risen to a high of RM1.60.

From 1.55, dropped till 1.10 with a loss of RM 171m?
1.55-1.1 Market Cap loss = 352m VS inclusive of loss of RM 171m. Where does the difference of RM 181 go?

At RM 1.55, when the news was announced in January, the increase in price was priced in at RM 1.55, giving POS a market cap of RM 1.21b, but increase in courier demand wasnt priced in yet.
With loss of RM 171, shouldnt the market cap be 1.039 b or RM 1.32?

Moreover, at RM 1.32 assumes nothing changed since MCO. But what about the increase in Courier volume by 200%? Savings in Interest of RM 10.8m/year? Savings in Fuel of RM 14m/year?

Gdex up 45% since MCO, would it be too demanding for POS to go up to pre-mco level of RM 1.32 (Inclusive of loss of RM 171m for Dec QR)? We're not greedy, we havent factored in Courier 200% increase, Fuel 14m/year cost decrease, Interest 10.8m/year cost decrease.

For courier segment last year 9 months ended Dec 2019 Profit was RM 14,657 million. This was including a malware attack and impairment write down..

If we take 6 months ended September 2019, profit was RM 47.8m for 2 quarters translating into RM 23.9/QR from Courier segment. IF MCO sales up 200% = RM 47.8m profit / quarter, or 23.9 x 4 = RM 95.6 additional profit/year..

So assuming market has priced in rate increase from postal at RM 1.039b, you now need to add in RM 95.6m Profit + 10.8m + 14m profit = RM 120m/year profit

Now let’s try to do the pricing of POS. On 28th May POS had annual profit of 124m and share price of RM 3.62, giving it market cap of 2.8 billion or PE of 22…

If you’re adding 120m profit with P/E of 10 at RM 1.2b market cap to pre-mco fair price of RM 1.039b (after loss of RM 171m), the numbers will look like 1.2b + 1.039 b = RM 2.239b market cap, translating into RM 2.79 Fair Value.

Interesting Note: POS Courier segment is 2.27 times bigger than Gdex (88m vs 200m per QR).

This QR we are seeing Postal 66% effect rate hikes priced in from 1st Feb to 31st March. It has not factored in the 200% volume +, Fuel Savings, Interest Savings of RM 120m/year.
Next QR would be interesting.

On 28 January 2020, shares in Pos Malaysia Bhd rose as much as 10% in early trade this morning after the national courier said it will raise postage rates for registered mail, commercial mail and small parcels below 2kg, effective Feb 1.

At 9.05am, Pos Malaysia rose 11 sen to RM1.55, valuing it at RM1.21 billion. The stock had earlier risen to a high of RM1.60.

From 1.55, dropped till 1.10 with a loss of RM 171m?
1.55-1.1 Market Cap loss = 352m VS inclusive of loss of RM 171m. Where does the difference of RM 181 go?

At RM 1.55, when the news was announced in January, the increase in price was priced in at RM 1.55, giving POS a market cap of RM 1.21b, but increase in courier demand wasnt priced in yet.
With loss of RM 171, shouldnt the market cap be 1.039 b or RM 1.32?

Moreover, at RM 1.32 assumes nothing changed since MCO. But what about the increase in Courier volume by 200%? Savings in Interest of RM 10.8m/year? Savings in Fuel of RM 14m/year?

Gdex up 45% since MCO, would it be too demanding for POS to go up to pre-mco level of RM 1.32 (Inclusive of loss of RM 171m for Dec QR)? We're not greedy, we havent factored in Courier 200% increase, Fuel 14m/year cost decrease, Interest 10.8m/year cost decrease.

For courier segment last year 9 months ended Dec 2019 Profit was RM 14,657 million. This was including a malware attack and impairment write down..

If we take 6 months ended September 2019, profit was RM 47.8m for 2 quarters translating into RM 23.9/QR from Courier segment. IF MCO sales up 200% = RM 47.8m profit / quarter, or 23.9 x 4 = RM 95.6 additional profit/year..

So assuming market has priced in rate increase from postal at RM 1.039b, you now need to add in RM 95.6m Profit + 10.8m + 14m profit = RM 120m/year profit

Now let’s try to do the pricing of POS. On 28th May POS had annual profit of 124m and share price of RM 3.62, giving it market cap of 2.8 billion or PE of 22…

If you’re adding 120m profit with P/E of 10 at RM 1.2b market cap to pre-mco fair price of RM 1.039b (after loss of RM 171m), the numbers will look like 1.2b + 1.039 b = RM 2.239b market cap, translating into RM 2.79 Fair Value.

Interesting Note: POS Courier segment is 2.27 times bigger than Gdex (88m vs 200m per QR).

This QR we are seeing Postal 66% effect rate hikes priced in from 1st Feb to 31st March. It has not factored in the 200% volume +, Fuel Savings, Interest Savings of RM 120m/year.
Next QR would be interesting.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/05/30/brisk-business-for-gdex

an important note for today's last min drop is that there was a quick sale and quick buy from one party to another. I believe these 2 parties are related. MAybe changing hands instead of selling ahead of results. 3 million sahres changed hand in a matter of 10 seconds.

If they know then it’s insider trading

Something wrong at close

Traditional mails slow down should be cushioned by the increase of 100% in rate. Hopefully can breakeven for traditional mail, and make profit for courier segment.

maybe the rest are institutions..

lai liao lai liao. i finish offset my contra. Ready to ride

lets join together!

POS 2019 Fuel consumption: 37,032,834.15 litres.
2019 Fuel Cost: 2.08 x 37,032,834 = RM 77.028m
2020 Fuel Cost: 1.70 (est) x 37,032,834 = RM 62.955m
Savings for 2020 = RM 14 million / Year. (no effect on March QR Result)

What a beautiful annual report! "On 13 February 2020, the company entered into a Share Purchase Agreement and Shareholders Agreement with SIAEC. This is in relation to the proposed divestment of 49% equity interest in Pos Aviation’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Pos Aviation Engineering Sdn. Bhd. to SIAEC." POS Malaysia Sold 50% of POS Aviation to Singapore Airlines in February! What a timely sale to reduce their exposure to the current fall in aviation industry.

The Universal Postal Union (UPU), which
monitors international postal exchanges in real-time, reported a 15% drop in postal volume since the
outbreak began. Meanwhile, the eCommerce sector experienced a 52% growth amidst the global
lockdown. In Malaysia, consumer spending has shifted to digital space due to the Movement Control
Order (MCO), resulting in an unexpected eCommerce boom, which has created a cultural shift and will
provide the catalyst towards a sustained uptake in eCommerce and online business, in general.

PROSPECTS & OUTLOOK
We are optimistic on the growth of the regional eCommerce market and its positive impact on the international cross-border volume.
Notwithstanding the above, the Group is expected to remain resilient in the face of continued global uncertainty brought about by the
Covid-19 pandemic.

Buy buy buy!!

how to join the AGM?

He needs to recoup his losses. It's okay, let him promote. Maybe he realises that POS is a better stock and buys into POS

results out today?

Tonight we will see the results, hopefully a good one. Good news is Gdex is still maininig 30+ cents. Meaning people really believe in this sector.

sure up 50% or more brother. Last Q loss was 100+m. This Q will breakeven. and POS will be back to RM 1.40.

Great news for POS!!

hey abc, good point. which part of the QR states this?

Congrats all!

I love reading comments from this forum.