Cash+short term money market fund+ tax recoverable = 60 cents per share...due to sector reversal, comfort glove should be consider the most undervalue glove company ...is very unfair for comfort to trade below 60 sen

To challenge 0.55

Looking @ 18 to 19 sen target

Have to cross 0.55, then 0.65 is the next target. The new contract secured should be able to help QES to have a meaningful growth story in next 1 year

Ays is construction bulding materials player. Ays sell lot of stuffs from cemment, to toilet bowl, to many other buliding harwares (whole catelog can be found in website). Not upstream steel players like hiaptek. I thought raw steel price drop is good for AYS since the input cost is lower? In May and june 2021 when steel price crashed in china, AYS reported best ever profit in history for quarter ended June 2021. Reason contributed the high building materials cost are from supply shortage from china as well as high freight cost. Therefore AYS manage to sell product at "higher average selling price and volume" due to shortage from china. AYS uses "weighted average cost of good sold method" to compute cost of goods sold, not first -in-first out. Thus give AYS very good margin since the input cost is slower.

Did i interprete wrongly?? As i see people keep posting china steel future price drop to reflect AYS who is doing construction materials?

Susah la ini macam...ha ha..

MALAYSIA steel price still solid

https://www.chinapress.com.my/20211026/%E2%97%A4%E4%BC%9A%E5%91%98%E6%96%87%EF%BC%9A%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F%E7%88%86%E7%82%B9%E2%97%A2-%E6%AF%8F%E5%85%AC%E5%90%A8%E9%92%A2%E9%93%81%E9%A3%99%E8%87%B3rm4000%E5%A4%A9%E4%BB%B7-%E6%89%BF%E5%8C%85/

http://johor.chinapress.com.my/?p=933058

Based on news flow on 5th oct 2021, harware price still very strong. The shortage of hardware from china due to production limit, as well as high shipping cost continue to drive up hardware price.

Low raw material price (steel) should lower the input cost. Plus high finished goods hardware price should benefit AYS more.

The timing of private placement is good. I think logically the placee should be convinced by "expected" good quarterly result ahead. Else who want to fork out RM 26 mil?

Just some thoughts.

Today has a chance to jump into PA.

Fundamentally,

(1) Latest quarter report has 2 special items. (A) deferred tax asset of 7.0 mil; (B) one off esos expenses amounted to RM 3.1 mil.
Therefore, latest quarter report has a core earning of RM 14.2 mil - Rm 7 mil + RM 3.1 mil = RM 10.3 mil @ eps 0.83 sens. This is about +43% increase vs immediate preceeding quarter.

(2) Latest quarter report has a gross profit margin of nearly 19.1%, the highest in recent few quarters. The management offer the explaination of better economy of scale.

(3) Recent extension of contract with First Solar USA worth RM 800 mil for 2 years. For information, PA secured contract from Firsr Solar amounted to RM 600 mil for 3 years back in 2018. I done a calculation on past 3 years extrusion revenue, it totalled only about RM 380 mil propably due to initial starting stage that eat away too much lead time. Therefore, the new rm 800 mil "extension" contract may have carry some spill over from previous contract. So, PA now need to rush out RM 800 mil worth of order in next 8 quarters.

(4) By averaging RM 800 mil into 8 quarters evenly, it means approximately RM 100 mil per quarter. By using 19% gross profit margin, the gross profit could be as high as RM 19 mil. I check back PA recent few quarters, the administrative and other fixed cost seem to be stagnant at around RM 2 mil to RM 3 mil quater in quarter out. By simply take this amount, the profit before tax could be as high as RM 16 mil. As for tax part, PA seems to be enjoying zero tax due to accumulated losses over the many many years ago. Another possible reason could be due to special tax treamtnet since PA is in renewable energy sector. I cannot confirm this. While i do not know how much longer such treatment will last, I think is safer to apply 25% tax though before to derive the final profit after tax.

(5) Energy crisis seems to be a hot topic recently in everywhere. I notice share price of many PV companies share listed China n hong kong has surged. But PA seems doing differently.


As for technical indicator,

I think i saw a cup & handle pattern. Hope any great TA sifu can offer better picture on this

Key risk of PA,

(1) Raw material price hike. In the news published recently in media, the management highlighted that raw materials are hedged to ensure price stability. So i guess this part is not a major concern.

(2) Any risk that you and me can and cannot think of.

I hope i bet right.

Thank you

Brent oil price traditionally has positive correlation with steel price whereby high brent oil price promotes better capex and resumption of oil related economy activities.

AYS is one of the key players in supplying steel related products to oil and gas projects.

https://www.ays-group.com/projects.php

While Pantech share price can surge 23% on 8/10/2021, why not AYS?

China is putting "electricity rationing" policy into a short to mid term action. Several taiwanese PCB factories are in the affected list. If order shifting comes to south east asia, wonder if BSL will benefit. I Jump in BSL today closing. Hope the pcb segment will be benefited.

China is putting "electricity rationing" policy into a short to mid term action. With steel products under limited production, global steel products like tubes and hardwares pricing will sky rocketing.

ADD ON: November result likely will be even better. Imagine for month of june, AYS is monopoly the supply. JULY & August, AYS still monopoly the supply. Septembee, fresh demand will kicks in due to economy reopening in malaysia. The low inventory in steel industry should further drive up hardware price. Sept and oct in china is 金九银十 months. I made some money during 金三银四 months. Hope similar thing to repeat again.

AYS able to generate powerful result due to:
1) the major trading segment is on the bottom of the down stream of steel supply chain. I.e the hardwares, flat steel finished product like steel pipes and the like. It is not mid stream like other long steel / hrc players. Hardware businesses are essential sector and allowed to operate during MCO 3.0. In Tashin (another similar but have smaller hardwaresegment like AYS) quarter report, you can see that tashin business resumed in 6th july. That's why tashin still reported a Q/Q grow.
2) AYS key segment, besides malaysia, is at singapore and supplies to major marine companies. So, business is as usual. Not affected by malaysia mco too.
3) Q/Q strong profit is also due to sky high price of hardwares / 五金due to high seafreight and short of supply from china.
4) AYS is big umbrella players i.e, it supppy everything that is steel in nature. So the company got benefited the most when hardware products price surged.
5) Singapore is key hub for ship building. AYS through subsidiary "steelaris" is supplying to singapore. Ship building is of good business now.

I have AYS, so i must sing some good song for AYS though.

Cheers!

Ha ha ha...duit gor, don't be like that

Thanks Mr Tan once again for the great effort. For many new i3 members who not aware about this competition, it has been done continuosly since year 2013 when only less than 10 members participated in the contest. And mr.tan has voluntarily organise this event for the past 8 years and going into no. 9th for 2021. FOR THE GREAT EFFORT, salute !!!

I have participated from
2014 (-40% @ no. 14);
2015 (+26.14% @ no.20);
2016 (+9.6% @ no.20);
2017 (+21.4% @ no.29)
2018 (-21.7% @ no.15)
2019 (+ 95.1% @ no.1)
2020 (+ 18.11% @ no. 28)

I will not particicipate further in this competition in future but i would like to share some insight i gain over the past 7 years competition.

1) You should aim to survive in stock market 1st, then only talk about to make how much in stock market!

I did very badly in 2014 with - 40% return..my stock pick were mainly stock like vivxxxx and some other names that you do not even heard about. It was "hype" speculation instead of investing. That was the deadly experience that i will forever shy away no matter how good the hype appeal in front of me, AGAIN!!! A demon will forever be evil in the blood and soul and they eat all the flesh and bone! Avoid!!!

2) Get yourself a good and proper tutor/ coach.

I like to express my greatest gratification and appreciation to mr. KCChong for the fundamental analysis course. SERIOUSLY, if you can't even read the number, you may still do well in stock market, but what i am looking at is consistantly perform and survive in very stock market condition. I think i survive well from 2015 to 2020 and i got the return i want. I also owe my gratification to mr OTB for basic technical analysis courses.

3) All good stock will come back in time, buy and hold only good stock
If you invested in good companies, no matter how challenging the market condition was (as of 2018), the price will come back!!! If you search back my stock pick for past few years, some big name will always be there: inari, gtronic, penta, frontken, tguan. They drop, but they come back at even higher price.

4) Avoid all your stock buddies, investing community; groups..etc, THEY ARE POISONOUS!!!

You hear me right, avoid them. Everyday you have 100 or 1000s message or news or circulatios or opinion coming to you, you are unlikely to do well in stock market. Beware of all the good news and bad news, good tips or bad tips coming to you. They do more bad than good to you. Your investment decision, your analysis, your idea will be shaken. Keep yourself a distance from all these, you tends to sleep well and get good return. Do a refresher about your group or stock buddies message you receive, are they helping you more or harming you more.

Lastly, thank you everyone for the teaching and guidance all these year.

Heng ar!!!

In i3 for almost 7 years...GOD...save them...no eye see..All the old birds out there..how do you feel when see this...

historical Q1.

i think something has really gone wrong. I noticed there was no increase of outstanding shares in Q4 2019 eventhough Sanz solution revenue and profit has been recognized in Q3 2019.

Then come to Q1 2020, share increased to 522 mil (which means deal completed), but the consolidated PPE got impaired. Are they buying rubbish and ended up need to impaired the value???

Revenue Y/Y looks stagnant, this simply fishy.

Somebody need to give convincing answer or else krono reputation will be tarnished permanently.

I agreed with duit-gor, investors do exercise extreme caution.

I will cut my holding.


Posted by YiStock > Feb 25, 2020 3:33 PM | Report Abuse X

i think Sanz solution revenue n profit did not consolidate in (not sure if is true as many firm in SG affected by corona virus). Again is my guess only. The reason i say so is due to stagnant of numbers of outstanding shares at the end of dec 2019 vs sept 2019. If not wrong, when whole deal complete, the total outstandkng shares of krono will be around 525 mil..But the quarter report only show 469 mil. I choose to hold. My target remain RM 1.50.

Posted by YiStock > Feb 25, 2020 4:00 PM | Report Abuse X

RainT, you finish quarter in 31 dec..you consolidate only in january or feb...anyway..just my guess because share issued is by tranche..just wonder why Q4 outstanding shares no increase (which suppose has increased since Q3 19 already start recognize rev and profit from sanz

RainT, you finish quarter in 31 dec..you consolidate only in january or feb...anyway..just my guess because share issued is by tranche..just wonder why Q4 outstanding shares no increase (which suppose has increased since Q3 19 already start recognize rev and profit from sanz.

i think Sanz solution revenue n profit did not consolidate in (not sure if is true as many firm in SG affected by corona virus). Again is my guess only. The reason i say so is due to stagnant of numbers of outstanding shares at the end of dec 2019 vs sept 2019. If not wrong, when whole deal complete, the total outstandkng shares of krono will be around 525 mil..But the quarter report only show 469 mil. I choose to hold. My target remain RM 1.50.

this one any time will break out after full recognition of additional 40% equity acquired

patient....should be explosive 1

1.50

up_down, just hope 2020 not -100%

Duit-gor, low hanging, good fruits are harder to find.

Mr tan, kindly add in my pick for 2020:

1) penta 10%
2) frontken 10%
3) inari 10%
4) gtronic 10%
5) techfast 10%
6) EG 10%
7) cepat 10%
8) thplant 10%
9) krono 10%
10) sapnrg-wa 10%

FY2019 started with low base. Fy 2020 will not be so lucky.

MHC is the major shareholder of cepat, both companies move in tandem in 2016/17

the current average cpo price is at the region of 2016/ 2017, check back the earning in these 2 years, cepat should move above RM 1.00.

U mobile is scheduled to IPO In 2020 to raise RM 2B. The listing will certainly give positive sentiment to redtone when u mobile started trading in bursa. Not only redtone but all counters related to VT will be lifted in price, more or less.

U MOBILE has the lowest coverage of 4G among telcos. The fund raised will be for the capex. Redtone will gain the contract almost for sure.

Separate listing of umobile will certainly benefit redtone.

Target 75 sen unchanged.

I afraid many has missed the crucial point of investing in tguan. Resin price drop is the secondly important factor but it can be offset by cost pass through vs saving pass through. The most important key to note is the VOLUME (more tonnage sold / higher revenue even during lower resin price). Tguan's revenue jump 15% y-o-y and 12% q-o-q. This gives them better economy of scale. You do not see such jump in scientex plaatic division.

Based on my LLDPE tracking, the price has collapsed further in Q4.

We shall see how's the volume loading Q4.

I'm sure the company continue to increase the production capacity for better demand from north america. Traditionally strong company like berry and APE foothold which asia company hard to penetrate.

Everyone know US and china will be there. Trade diversion is a sure thing.

november 19 inventory, although drop, but below expectation mainly because india import much less cpo from malaysia due to high cpo price. If increase of tax 5% can reduce cpo price by 10%, the dynamic will make importer to import more.

very simple but dynamic process to manage the CPO inventory & cpo price: inventory high --> No tax --> more export volume + low production + biodiesel mandate --> cpo price shot up --> export volume drop --> impose tax --> cpo price drop --> export shot up --> inventory drop --> cpo price shot up --> low export --> inventory high

cpo price high hurt export.

just monitor the average cpo quaterly price will do. So long as quarterly price continue improve from quarter to quarter, plantation counters will perform.

just make sure pick good plantation companies

75 cents

Potentially hit RM 0.75 by feb 2020

Icon8888 will vomit blood

once a favourite stock of my sifu mr ooi

After THplant breakout, cepat should follow

Another 10 sen to TP 2.20

Initiated position: Operating turned profitable in latest QR. Core earning RM 22 mil (ex- tax + impairment)

Used up last portion of fund sailang..wish me good luck!!!

bonus issue + split

when market sentiment no good, biz fundamental will be ignored.

RM 100 mil capex spent in last financial year. We shall see the result from this RM 100 capex in coming quarters.

Turn around story. Target 90 sen unchanged

Result RM 3.8 mil or EPS 1.5 sen which is very close to projected range. TTM should be better towards 7 sen EPS (more order diverted from china supplier by existing client WD + JV with taiwan quanta).



YiStock 6.3 mil is too optimistic, should be in the range of 4 mil +/- unless forex hit again
15/11/2019 2:48 PM

"We have penetrated markets to supply premium plastic films.."

SLP and Scientex has higher PE partly due to product mixed.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/07/01/thong-guan-to-spend-up-to-rm40mil-on-expansion#KZOVwfLd8GYcFdjp.99

Core earning RM 88 million. Is a very good result.

they missed in 2016, i hope they cherish 2019

plus the cash level of RM 212 mil or around RM 1.20 per share..minus that out, current share price is only RM 2.20. What a good company to buy.. If the boss still soh soh de don't do bonus issue and split...i really dont know how their brain operate.