Steve, current ratio (CR)is one of the important ratios in financial statement analysis. Hence it is in my spreadsheet. It is normally not a problem if a company does not have too high debt, especially short-term debt. Those companies I am interesting are so happened that CR is always not a problem and it is normally >2. Of course it may be a problem if it is less than say 1.5 because of the solvency risk. But one shouldn't just look at the CR in isolation and then straightaway say that stock is risky and avoid that stock. There is a better ratio to look at for this type of company, the cash flow coverage, ie how many times the cash flow from operation in respect to interest payment. If the cash flow coverage is high enough, say >5, then there may not be any issue.
Dear bro kcchongnz, do you have any emails or contacts where I can send a private message to contact you? We would like to send you an invitation to a forum. You may just reply by direct replying to valerian1224@gmail.com to preserve your privacy. Appreciate your reply through this email. Thanks!
Bro kcchong can you comment on UNICO DESA how could last quater Unico suffer losses???since from 2006 until before last quater Unico in profit,is this a chance to accumulate... I can see the trend in EPS of Unico in downtrend from 2nd quater 2011...
What bout RCE?i can see ROE is maintain above 10,but why price like penny stock company? Thanks...
necro, UNICO DESA like other plantation companies suffers from the lower palm oil price and hence its profit is reduced, not at a loss. As long as the palm oil price is more than RM2000, no pure plantation company should suffer a loss because the cost of production is way below that. You should disregard the one time loss such as the loss on discontinued operation, adjustment due to IPO etc. They won't recur in the following years. There are many penny stocks with ROE more than 10, not only RCE. Whether a stock is good as an investment does not depend on whether it is a penny stock or a RM20 stock. It depends on how much it earns relative to how many shares outstanding. RCE does appear cheap because of it price relative to the earnings per share with a prospective PE ratio of about 5. However I believe there must be good reasons why is it so. For one we must look at the quality of its loans, its market share, its profit margin, and most of all the regulatory environment etc. Can RCE continue to do this business without having to meet some of the strict regulations and controls by Bank Negara imposed on other financial institutions? Lending money to government servants is now also a very competitive business.
Hurmmm... Is this happen due to less publicity on this company,since MBSB charge incur before the loan credited into its borrowers account quite high.. looking at dividend quite COOL wondering pass from ppl eyes although sit in BIG & MID PLAYER... Besides than loan growth this year projected at 9-11% this year wont this being oppurtinity for RCE to publish its personal and micro loan to public..
Bro what about you think on GMUTUAL,SPRITZER and progress in SKPRES as LTH as major shareholder will this be a catalyst for this stock...
Public Invest (PI) wrote about Kumpulan Fima as below: [KFima's 3QFY13 revenue increased marginally from RM117.4m in the previous corresponding year to RM119.5m in the current quarter (+1.8% y-o-y, -6.5% q-o-q) due to higher contributions from manufacturing and bulking divisions. Net profit rose to RM22.7m from RM14.8m y-o-y (+54.1% y-o-y, +19.4% q-o-q) with YTD earnings +11.4% despite declining CPO prices, and unexpectedly lower sales from the food division. The group‟s YTD performance has achieved 82% and 75% respectively of our FY13F revenue and net profit estimates which we assume would meet our full year forecast reaffirming our Outperform recommendation and TP of RM3.21.] Hardly any analyst writes about Kumpulan Fima because of its small capitalization. Public Invest is one, if not the only one, writing about it. I must respect PI for its consistency in maintaining its target price of Kfima at RM3.21 every time. It never change its mind when the market price of Kfima fluctuates from 2.40 to 1.80 now. But then I am not surprised because its earnings doesn’t fluctuate much too within the year. I am not sure about PI’s rationale and basis of this target price though. For me what matters most for a company which has steady businesses and long enough record of performance is the free cash flow (FCF) it produces. FCF is what the company receives as hard cash each year less whatever capital expenses required for maintaining its competitive advantage and future growth. Hence it is clear that it is this FCF available that the company can pay dividend, pay down debts, increase its cash holdings, do some other investments, buy back shares. The table below shows its cash flows from the last 5 years in thousands: Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 CFFO 132346 139552 116823 59792 67049 Capex -26434 -24022 -19500 -23826 -32009 FCF 105912 115530 97323 35966 35040 Net income 116543 107502 86433 70627 43274 FCF/Revenue 22% 27% 24% 10% 11% Dividend per share,sen 8.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 2.5
One can see the consistent FCF produced by Kfima in the last 5 years in an increasing trend, with FCF about the same as its net income; and FCF above 20% of revenue. I think besides those tobacco, liquor, empat ekor etc companies, you probably won’t find this type of excellent FCF from any other companies. Notice also the rising trend of dividend payment made possible by the excellent cash flows? But how is the cash flows of Kfima for the last few quarters? The trailing twelve month net income attribute to common shareholders of Kfima increased by 14% to 92.2 m, or 34.4 sen per share after taking into the increased number of shares due to the ESOS. However for the 9 months ended fiscal year 2013 on 31 December 2012, CFFO decreased to 26.4m. FCF is negative for this period with capital expenses of 39m. This is mainly due to increased in receivables by 62m to 125.7m, and an increase in tax payment by 12m to 30m. However, its approximately 100 days of sales outstanding is actually its norm and last year’s low DSO is exceptional. Its net cash also reduced by about 10% accordingly, but with a net cash of 232m, its balance sheet is still very healthy. Hence for me this poorer cash flow may need to monitor a little, but it is not a concern.
Posted by necro > Mar 1, 2013 07:24 PM | Report Abuse Bro kcchong please comment on Pos performance dis year
necro, the last time I commended on your POS as appended below, I was estimating that its EPS for year ended 31 December 2012 would be 25 sen. The recent three quarters result shows that POS EPS is already 22.2 sen. I would guess by the financial ending 31 March 2013, its EPS could easily be 33 sen, more than 30% above my initial estimate. At 3.78 now, its prospective PE is 11.5, not overly high for a growth company as explained below. I would think POS is a good investment at this price.
Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 10, 2013 11:51 PM | Report Abuse X necro, again I don't know much about POS. Nevertheless I will try to give my opiion here.
If one looks at POS’s historical performance for the past 5 years as shown in the table 1 below, it doesn’t appear to be promising. Table 1: Revenue and net income of POS in thousands Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Revenue 205959 317886 349713 282756 347838 Net Income 72346 89598 84191 79782 78634
Revenue and earnings deteriorated quite obviously from year ending June 30, 2008 and 2012. It is understandable as less business and people are using the traditional postage services with the explosive usage of internet for the last few years. Dissecting its ROE for 2012, the less than satisfactory ROE of 8.1% was achieved with a very high net income margin of 35% (good) but a very low asset turnover of just 0.14 (not good). ROE=NI*AT*FL=35%*0.14*1.67=8.1%. I won’t be satisfied if the equity I put in a company just earns 8.1% considering the risk involved. I want at least 10%. The only thing attractive about POS is its healthy balance sheet with 544m, or RM1 per share of cash. I think the attractiveness of POS is its future prospect with the acquisition by the DRB group, the synergy created as a member of the group. There will be a lot business it will get from the group, eg the distribution of Proton car parts. POS also commenced on other businesses such as the Islamic pawn broking business, its new initiatives of the OnDemand service and pre-paid boxes which seem to be very lucrative businesses. These new businesses will certain increase POS revenue to a great extent and hence improve its asset turnover, in turn the ROE in the future. It is the growth stories which may make POS appear to be an attractive investment. However, with my estimate of its prospective EPS of about 25 sen per share for year ending 30 June 2013, its PE ratio is about 14, which is not that dirt cheap to me. However I believe this is another stock which won’t bring you to Holland.
APM and Free Cash Flow It is really difficult to find a public listed company with an established record of producing good free cash flow (FCF). Hence when I stumble into one, I will not miss the opportunity to talk about it. Table 1 below shows the financial performance of APM from 2005 to 2012. Table 1: Financial performance of APM (thousands) Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 CAGR Revenue 1198475 1182069 1178846 918533 943526 839243 899817 970645 3.1% Net Income 125187 137683 140334 82278 57572 59336 58997 71962 8.2% CFFO 142124 148280 168427 135198 93358 86941 115901 117082 2.8% In the seven years period, revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 3%. Net income however, grew at a higher and more respectable CAGR of 8%. Cash flow from operation (CFFO) is consistently higher than net income, signifying good quality of it incomes. Table 2 below shows the capital expenses each year and the FCF left after that. Table 2: Free cash flow for APM (thousands) Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 CAGR CFFO 142124 148280 168427 135198 93358 86941 115901 117082 2.8% Capex -47890 -50857 -65857 -34873 -61009 -19396 -44976 -70628 -5.4% FCF 94234 97423 102570 100325 32349 67545 70925 46454 10.6%
On average, 40% of CFFO is used for capital expenses acquiring assets such as property, plant and equipment to maintain or increase the scope of their ordinary operations. There were still plenty of money, or FCF, left for the company to pay dividend, pay down debts, increase its cash holdings, do some other investments, buy back shares, or simply left in its balance sheet, awaiting for some good investments. Table 3 below shows the amount of dividends paid and cash left in balance sheet.
APM is able to increase its dividend payout to its shareholders each year with the FCF. It has bought back some of its own shares, spend some money in other investments, and still left with a lot of cash in its balance sheet. Cash has growth by a CAGR of 20% since 7 years ago to a total of RM427m in 2012, or RM2.12 per share. How do we decide how much FCF is good for a company? Table 4 below shows the FCF of APM in relation to its revenue and invested capital (IC). APM produces excellent FCF as it is consistently at about 8% and 20% respectively of its sales and IC, comfortably above my benchmark of 5%. Table 4: FCF in relation to sales and invested capital Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 FCF/Sales 7.9% 8.2% 8.7% 10.9% 3.4% 8.0% 7.9% 4.8% FCF/IC 19% 20% 24% 24% 8% 16% 17% 11%
KAHFIEHLAI, unless SKPRres's fundamentals have changed of which I have no knowledge of, it remains one of the best value and growth stock as an investment. The problem is the major shareholder has not stopped reducing his stake in the company. This to me is not a concern as I think it is a wise move for him to lower his stake, diversifies and as part of his exit strategy. It is the same for you, hold some SKPRes shares as you wish, but not advisable to put all your eggs in the same basket, a well accepted axiom full of logic.
Posted by passerby > May 14, 2013 09:54 PM | Report Abuse
Impressive killing gain for Jobstreet ! How come I never hear you say anything about it?
Aiyah, this stock has no liquidity, no investment banks covering this stock, especially from Kenanga. What for talk about it?
Anyway I bought based on the writeup of a couple of favorite bloggers. I look at it but didn't analyze it in detail. If I say anything about this, there will be quite some "copy and paste". So better not say anything about it.
Kcchong and kc loh, what do you think of AMPROP? I had a quick check on its fundamental and it looks not bad. ROE increasing for the past 5 years. DY ok. Low debt. PER also low. Is the price under value now? But seem like not many research paper about it.
Posted by aunloke > Dec 23, 2012 07:27 PM | Report Abuse
Amprop :- EPS 2011, 8sen, 2112,18sen ; div. 2012= 6sen ( inclusive 3 sen special div. ) EPS Q1 2013 3.6 sen. Share price 48sen which gives the estimated 2013 PE less than 5.
Posted by kcchongnz > Dec 23, 2012 07:46 PM | Report Abuse X
aunloke, thanks. On the surface Amprop does look good. But I think its profit may have include huge amount from one-time disposal of assets. Taking that off, its "real" profit may not be there. I am not too sure about that though until I do a thorough study of it. Dividend wise does look good if one just looks at its last dividend payment. Not sure can sustain or not. Would you consider my comment and look into its financials in more details and share with us. Thanks first.
Posted by aunloke > Dec 23, 2012 08:47 PM | Report Abuse
Dear KC, of cause I wouldn't expect it to sustain the same profit as its preceding year cos it was achieved on the disposal of a building in London. However from its 2Q result of 6.1 sen EPS it is quite reasonable to assume the annualized EPS for 2013 to be 10 sen plus . Moreover it may also dispose off a piece of land in the near future giving it the extraordinary gain of RM 27M ( about 4 sen /share ) this will further reduce the PE to less than 4. Anyway hope you can make a thorough study and share with us here. Thanks and merry Xmas !
yfchong, I don't know much about Parkson. I know icap have been holding huge amount of it since long ago and it made handsome paper gain from it, a few years back when Parkson did extremely well in China. Since then China's economic growth has slowed down and so is Parkson's. its bottom line was also adversely affected. Its share price has been a down trend for some time now. Is it poised for a trend reversal? I don't know. Appended below is a link from a favorite investment blogger of mine which you can read and judge by yourself.
KAHFIELAI, I have written about ECS in this tread before which can serve as a guide for you whether you should maintain a long term view in this investment. Also as a guide, I append here with my valuation of ECS using Earnings Power Valuation method which I think is quite appropriate for ECS in view of its consistent revenue and earnings. As for NPTM, I append a link from a blogger for your information.
Revenue 2012 1276120 Adjusted Ebit 38284 less income tax -9986 Net operating profit after tax 28297 Add average D&A 1389 Less average capex -1927 Normalized Ebit 27760 Cost of capital, R 10% Capitalized earnings=Ad Ebit/R 277597 Add cash 72989 Other investments 62 Less debts 0 EPV 350648 Less minority interest 0 EPV to common shareholders 350648 Number of shares 180000 EPV/share 1.95
Of course right issues, and issues of ICUL will increase the number of shares sooner or later and will dilute the earnings of the existing shares. But as the rights are given to the existing shareholders, dilution will be offset by the increase in the number of shares investors have. But shareholders either must sell the existing shares if they do not intend to exercise their rights; or if they still hold the existing shares, they must exercise in order not to lose out in the dilution.
This post is not to brag about how much my stocks have increased for the past 6 months; and is also not a show of how good in picking stocks. It is a response to some people who have been writing about how bad is the fundamental approach is in investing. Today, a couple of them even accused me of misleading others in my analysis and postings. Heck, most of the time I response to others questions through hard work, compiling the financial statements, analyze them, and wrote comments and posted in i3. So now I want to show them fundamental approach in investing is not that bad after all.
Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 24, 2013 11:33 AM | Report Abuse X
Tan KW put up my portfolio in i3investor on 21/1/2013. Check this out.
Exactly 6 months has passed. What is the return of this portfolio? It is 38%, or annualized 76%. 76% in a year, my god!!!! How did you do that! This compares with only 10.5% of the broad market, more than 3 times above the market return, my god!
So does my FA works ,folks? Did Kumpulan Fima share price plunged?
I seldom talk about share price, and especially how much I made etc. But I think it is time to put up the performance of my portfolio liow.
So folks, please commend on return of the stocks I have selected with FA!
When we doing stock selection, we follow a basis; whether it is fundamentals, ie value investing, growth investing, invest in good companies etc; or technical or whatever. Those fellows who are criticizing, badmouthing etc, I don't know how they invest and what basis they are ridiculing us.
Tq Sir. GramboI also hate robber......they take and take and then still injure you.....dammmmm
So for those who enjoy OTB info which takes time to prepare show lah appreciation even if not just shut the mouth. They won't say you are deaf and dumb.....
Wow! even a consistent 10% return is considered good. Very happy for you. Thank you for sharing which is beneficial n highly appreciated. FA ,definitely works! OTC, i think your porfolio is great too right? thanks for all the hard work and generosity of sharing. Highly grateful to you guys for the advice given and guidance. Salute you both lah!
ok lah, let's talk about investing lah, iafx? Now as you can see, my portfolio is posted by Tan KW six months ago up here. They are all based on my different investing strategies, value investing, growth investing, investing in good companies. You know lah (not vsure whether you know, most likely not) those 5 yardsticks of Cold Eye, In search of excellent companies, growth investing etc. All were analyzed and written and posted in i3 for all to see. No cheating, pusing, copy and paste, bullshit or whatever. The total return of my portfolio now is 38% as computed, no bullshit one. Not sure you can comprehend my tabulation or not, again most probably not. So I won't even think of whether you can actually know how to check or not.
Not bad isn't it? 38% in six months, or annualized return of 76%, compared to about 10% of the market. So what you think? My analysis so bad meh?
So what about yours? What is your strategy in Bursa? You know what strategy I am talking about or not? Strategy of investing, or trading. Can share with us ah? Surely you have, haven't you? Or just the strategy of rumour mongering? What is your return? Nay prove like what I have?
I am sure all forumers here are eager to tap your expertise.
But think of it. Your strategy very eeri fight lah. Which graveyard do you normally go?
I think not for me lah. I rather follow my students way of investing now. You know I have a few in i3, they are better than me now. Don't believe, go and watch those threads where they have done some excellent analysis.
Hey, how must return did you get ah using your ghostly strategy?
Maybe I suggest you use some other better ones lah. You got any idea what kind of investing strategy is available or not? No? let me suggest to you.
High dividend yield Value investing, low PE ratio, low P/B, Stable earnings strategy Invest in excellent companies Growth investing Contrarian strategy Momentum strategy Follow the experts strategy (not iafx lah of course) Investing for long term, buy and hold Etc
You know any of these strategies or not? If not want to learn of not? don't just always based on rumour mongering lah.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Steve Jub
4,203 posts
Posted by Steve Jub > 2013-02-12 12:49 | Report Abuse
@kcchong, just wondering, when u check, do u also look into their current ratio also?