GE 13 Watch - Kcchongnz (revised - 20 January 2013)

ooi i hope can learn from u about TA and FA. do u have your blog about
TA and FA

2013-07-26 14:35

Dear Steve,

I used SharesXPert system. Presently, I am the chief trainer of SharesXPert.com KL.

Previously, I worked as a trainer for T3B in China, HK and Malaysia for 3 years.

Thank you.
Ooi

2013-07-26 14:36

Dear yungshen1,

Please look at this link :
SharesXPert.com.

Thank you.
Ooi

2013-07-26 14:38

inwest88

Ooi, what is your position and role in SharesXPert.com. if I may ask ?

2013-07-26 14:48

winman 1

thanks dear kcchongnz and ooi, for all that has been said on masteel and will take advice wisely

2013-07-26 14:49

winman 1

ooi , wish u could post some comment on whether is it ok to invest in AAX , according to dali of MFB, its a under own stock, any entry price ah

2013-07-26 14:55

ooi i still dun understand 3 step

2013-07-26 14:59

ooi is it the right time to enter this tgoffs share now. according the chart is uptrend mode

2013-07-26 15:06

Dear yungshen1,

Please note that TA is ok for tgoff, FA is very bad. Hence I will not recommend.

Thank you.
Ooi

2013-07-26 15:22

PureBULL .

yungshen1, Be honest, I know u loss tons of money in kan nee ma n taken to holand by lee baba.
u must see otb. he can help u for a small fee compares to the tons of ur losses.
many around in i3 should just do the same !
Be Happy Trading forever...

2013-07-26 16:03

Bursa is a jungle out there. You want to speculate and make money in Bursa? 说来容易做起来难

Easy said than done. Trading and speculation is a zero sum game. Think about who are you betting against?

Insiders, manipulators, experts chartists, institutional speculators, individual experts in technical analysis. So where to place yourselves against them?

“If you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.”
― Warren Buffett

2013-07-26 16:27

winman 1

dear ooi, wow you had bought many stocks that had appreciated enomously, I just hope u recommend me a stock of mention calibre, should i enclose my email. I had some masteel wa

2013-07-26 17:27

jcck79

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 26, 2013 04:27 PM | Report Abuse

Bursa is a jungle out there. You want to speculate and make money in Bursa? 说来容易做起来难

Easy said than done. Trading and speculation is a zero sum game. Think about who are you betting against?

Insiders, manipulators, experts chartists, institutional speculators, individual experts in technical analysis. So where to place yourselves against them?

“If you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.”
― Warren Buffett

My comment:

"If you can't beat them join them" - Jeff Chong

2013-07-26 17:33

Steve Jub

very true and well said, kcchong. it is not easy to profit from stock market esp those got insider news which give them unfair advantage some more.

2013-07-26 17:45

Posted by winman 1 > Jul 26, 2013 02:55 PM | Report Abuse

ooi , wish u could post some comment on whether is it ok to invest in AAX , according to dali of MFB, its a under own stock, any entry price ah

Dear winman 1,

It is a down trending stock, how good the FA is, I will not buy.

Thank you.
Ooi

2013-07-26 21:47

dear ooi
how about knm
ROE
NTA
EPS
DPS
REVENUE
NET PROFIT
DEBT RATIO
CASH FLOW

2013-07-26 22:26

dear ooi
may i ask u .knm can invest for long term.

2013-07-26 22:29

Dear yungshen,

Please note that KNM cannot even passed my first test, no point to do IV calculation for this stock. I want to see there is a strong growth in latest quarter earning, then I will do this calculation.

KNM is a down trending stock, I recommend you to sell fast before it is too late. Daily, weekly and monthly chart, all sell, sell, sell.

No offend to you, I know you like this stock. I conduct my training for last 1 year, I will show this KNM chart to all new students. I will ask this question "can you buy this stock ?", answer from NEW students "No, No, No".

Sorry ! I cannot help you. I am more than willing to help you, but technical chart tells me to advise you to sell this stock.

Thank you.
Ooi

2013-07-26 22:43

thank u ooi.

2013-07-26 22:45

dear ooi
now maybulk is uptrend mode.i think this stock can reach to 2.000 next week

2013-07-26 22:47

Dear Yungshen1,

Yes, Maybulk is an up trending stock. The price must cross 1.89 in order to go up. If the price cannot cross 1.89, the likely chance that the price will drop further. The price support is at 1.79. The candle closing on 26/7/2013 displayed a price top, I will recommend to sell on strength.

Thank you.
Ooi

2013-07-26 23:00

htyeap125

Mr Ooi, wat is ur view point on CMMT ?

2013-07-27 00:17

thanks ooi.

2013-07-27 09:33

dear ooi
insas now uptrand mode.if insas break 0.600 it will continue up.support price at 0.540

2013-07-27 09:46

Now that each of us (OTB, Fat Cat, kcchong) claimed that his portfolio made impressive return from the stock market, let’s see whose return is the best. Before that let me just lay down some points here first.

1) The purpose here is not really trying to compare who is the best stock picker, because while the skill in stock picking cannot be ruled out, but frankly speaking, the good/bad return could have a big portion of it in lady luck too.

2) While this is not for the purpose of boasting or discrediting the prowess of anybody in stock picking skill, it also should serve the purpose of shutting up some of the people here who have been condemning others about their sharing in the stock market. I, for one, has been under vicious attacks by a couple of people here recently regarding my sharing in the forums about the business of some companies, and most of the time when asked by others. It took a lot of time to analyze and wrote my opinion in responses to those queries. However, I don’t remember I have recommended anyone to buy any share.

3) I acknowledge that there are many people out there in i3 who may have done much better than those described here.

4) Three portfolios put up in i3 here about the same time six-eight months ago and the prices then and now are all there and are transparent. No tipu-pusing-bullshit can be done.

5) For the portfolio of kcchong, the total return of each stock include dividend which the average dividend yield worked out to be about 2.2%. for OTB’s portfolio, I assume the same dividend yield . For Fat Cat’s portfolio, I put in an additional percentage point in dividend yield (3.2%)due to its large holding in Reits.

6) Kcchongnz’s investing strategy is based on fundamentals, mainly trying to buy good companies stocks at a low and reasonable price. OTB’s strategy is based more on technical analysis couple with some basic fundamentals. Fat Cat appears to be fundamental but more interested in high dividend yields.

7) KLSE started at the beginning of the year at 1637. As at 26/7/13, it closed at 1808, or a gain of 10.4%. With an estimate dividend yield of 1.6%, the total return so far is 12%.

Fat Cat total return so far is 29.6%. Well done Fat Cat. You outperformed the KLSE by a whopping 18% for this nine months. I think you easily beat many fund managers with this return.

Kcchong’s portfolio returned 38.0% in the seven months, it is even better than Fat Cat fabulous return. Who said kcchong recommended ( I never recommend anything) losing stocks? Who said my fundamental approach in investing is hopeless, useless? Who who who?

However, OTB’s portfolio return 55%, way above the two portfolios above. So how? Can you say OTB recommended lap sap stocks. OTB was under attack by more , many more people than I encountered. What I can say is “well done OTB”.

Now I want to reiterate here again, the outperformance of all the above could have been a big portion due to luck factor while of course their skill could also be a big factor. If not how could they out-performed the market by such a wide margin?

One thing I notice that OTB has the most number of very big winners (>50% return), Prestariang, Naim, Huayang, Alam and KHSB. Kcchong has a number of big winners too in Pintaras, Jobstreet, Kimlun and Preatariang. Fat Cat has the biggest winner in Poweroot (108%). My conclusion is as OTB is a technician, trading stocks basing on momentum could yield better return in a bull market.

So is technical analysis always better than fundamental analysis? Yes, in this particular six-eight months when the stock market is on the rise, a good run indeed. Is technical analysis always a better approach is investing. No, I don’t agree. Bear in mind that OTB is a good technician compared to many novice ones. Well I know many people would not agree with me. I expect that. But we can always discuss sometime later if anyone wish to.

2013-07-29 20:06

I have to reiterate that the 6-9 months of the good performance posted is too short a record to boast about. It could very well be due to luck. Really the measurement of successful investing does not just based on a short-term of seven months performance. Investing to me is a long term endeavour. So we have to look at the more important long-term return. So how to measure the long term performance of your portfolio?

Table 1 below shows the performance measurement of my portfolio for one to five years. Again this is just for discussion purpose. I hope others do not construe this as a self bragging exercise. Some of the stocks only have prices of 2-3 years as they are either only listed 2-3 years ago, or data is not available from the Yahoo website.
Table 1: Stock prices 1-5 years

Stock Name Code Price now 1 2 3 4 5
Kfima 6491 2.11 2.26 1.78 1.04 0.650 0.490
Pintaras 9598 4.90 2.65 2.35 1.70 1.37 1.30
ECS 5162 1.22 1.05 0.955 0.735
Plenitude 5075 2.31 1.88 2.060 1.93 1.30 1.04
Jobstreest *0058 4.10 2.12 2.890
Pantech 5125 1.09 0.6 0.595 0.720 0.68 0.690
SKPRes 7155 0.320 0.32 0.180 0.130 0.085 0.080
NTPM 5066 0.565 0.475 0.535
Kimlun 5171 2.23 1.42 1.690 1.040
Prestariang 5204 2.14 1.26
KLCI KLSE 1808 1632 1549 1361 1175 1159

Table 2 below shows the compounded annual return (CAR) of each stock for 1-5 years of holding period.

Table 2: CAR of stocks and KLSE (28/7/13)
Stock Name Code Price now 1 2 3 4 5
Kfima 6491 2.11 -6.6% 8.9% 26.6% 34.2% 33.9%
Pintaras 9598 4.90 84.9% 44.4% 42.3% 37.5% 30.4%
ECS 5162 1.22 16.2% 13.0% 18.4%
Plenitude 5075 2.31 22.9% 5.9% 6.2% 15.5% 17.3%
Jobstreest *0058 4.10 93.4% 19.1%
Pantech 5125 1.09 81.7% 35.3% 14.8% 12.7% 9.6%
SKPRes 7155 0.320 0.0% 33.3% 35.0% 39.3% 32.0%
NTPM 5066 0.565 18.9% 2.8%
Kimlun 5171 2.23 57.0% 14.9% 29.0%
Prestariang 5204 2.14 69.8%

And Table 3 below shows the computation of CAR of the portfolio as compared to that of KLSE.

Table 3: CAR comparison of portfolio with KLSE
Year 1 2 3 4 5
Average Portfolio CAR 43.8% 19.7% 24.6% 27.8% 24.6%
KLSE CAR 10.8% 8.0% 9.9% 11.4% 9.3%
Excess return 33.0% 11.7% 14.7% 16.5% 15.3%

It can be that on average, the CAR of the portfolio out-performed the broad market by a wide margin. For example for a five year holding period, the portfolio returns a CAR of 24.6% as compared to KLSE’s 9.3%, a whopping 15.3% of excess return each year. For a shorter holding period of three years, the excess return a year is 14.7%.

2013-07-29 20:07

Is it a good idea to invest through unit trusts? Which local equity fund is the best?

Once I asked a forumer who has been posting unit trust funds in i3investor what is the average and median CAR of the unit trust funds in Malaysia. He came back and asked me what CAR is. So I have no choice but to go to the Fundsupermart website myself and compiled and tabulate the compounded annual return (CAR) of the equity funds invested in KLSE for the 1, 3 and 5 years.

From the website, there are a total of 68 local equity funds investing in the KLSE. The average 1-year average and median return is both about 15%, 3 years 12.2% and the 5 years 11.6% as shown below:

Table 1: Fund performance in %
Years 1 3 5
Average 15.2 12.1 11.7
Median 14.9 12.3 11.6
Stdev 5.2 3.8 3.5
No.>KLSE 55 51 49
81% 75% 72%
Max 28.5 22.0 20.8
Min 3.6 3.6 4.0
KLSE 10.80 9.90 9.30

How is the past performance of the funds as a whole? My opinion is they did pretty well. The average returns of the unit trusts outperformed KLSE for all holding periods of 1-year, 3-year and 5-year by 4.4%, 2.2% and 2.4% respectively. 81% of the unit trusts outperformed KLSE for 1-year, and 72% for the 5-year. Even if one invested in the worst performer, he still earns more than the fixed deposit, assumed to be about 3.5%. Wonderful! I think I should make some observations as below:

1. The stock market, especially Bursa Malaysia, is far from efficient.
2. The fund managers in Malaysia are better than those from the US as research has shown that US fund managers under-perform the broad market as a whole. But it could also be due to the inefficiency of KLSE that enable them to out-perform.
3. The performance of the good fund manager are pretty consistent too. For example, Philip Capital Master Growth Fund is the No. 1 for the 1-year return of 28.5%. It also did pretty well for the 3-year and 5-year return of 18.4% and 20% respectively. Similar consistency is shown by the top fund for the 3-year, Kenanga Growth Fund at 22%, and MAAKL-HDBS Flexi fund for the 5-year as shown in Table 2 below.

Table 2: Top fund managers, % CAR
Year 1 3 5
1-year PC Master growth fund 28.5 18.4 20.0
3-year Kenanga Growth Fund 22.3 22.0 20.0
5-year MAAKL-HDBS Flexi Fund 20.9 20.5 20.8

My conclusion is that it may be a good idea for ordinary people who have not much knowledge and wish to invest in the equity market to invest in the local unit trust funds.

For individual investor, how is your return compared with the market? How is it compared to unit trusts funds?

Please note this article is just for sharing purpose. I am not a unit trust agent, neither am I a financial advisor.

2013-07-29 20:09

How is kcchongnz portfolio compared to the unit trust funds invested in Bursa stocks for the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year holding period? For unit trust funds return, please refer to the following link:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900334365.jsp?fp=2

Year 1 3 5
Average Portfolio CAR 43.8% 24.6% 24.6%
KLSE CAR 10.8% 9.9% 9.3%
Unit trust, ave CAR 15.20% 12.10% 11.70%
Unit trust Max CAR 28.50% 22.00% 20.80%

It does appear that I did pretty well. Not only my portfolio beat the averages of the unit trusts for all the holding periods, the portfolio even out-performed the best of the 68 funds investing in Bursa! Hard to believe!

2013-07-29 20:20

surfingalien

Kchong,

Hi,

I am holding 'lots' of plenitude and have done for a few years. I wonder if I should cash them in. I'm not sure why except it would be a fair return and I just have a little sense of uncertainty about the way things are now, as if it's all in delicate balance. No, I don't need the money and it can sit there a lot longer. But if things collapse then I can buy in later.

I wonder what you think about what I am thinking now??

surfing alien

2013-08-01 17:12

surfingalien, I had held Plenitude for some time too but sold off after the GE. I am sure you have your good reasons for buying Plenitude then, just as I did.

Plenitude has huge amount of cash. It has plenty of excellent land bank bought (or rather grabbed)at very low price. Hence you notice that its gross margins have been exceptionally high.

For Plenitude, in my opinion, is hell of an undervalued stock. The problem is you must know the person behind it. Is he going to share the value with you? I honestly don't know.

2013-08-01 17:39

surfingalien

kcchongnz,

Thank you for your opinion I have taken note and action in part because of what you say and too because of my own sense of disquiet.

Best regards to you and all for Raya.

2013-08-06 18:41

The Eight Wonder of the World: The Power of Compounding

I have just posted the return of this portfolio as below:

Table 3 15/09/2013
Year 1 2 3 4 5
Average Portfolio CAR 42.9% 25.3% 21.5% 24.9% 27.3%
KLSE CAR 9.1% 13.9% 6.5% 9.7% 11.5%
Excess return 33.8% 11.5% 15.1% 15.2% 15.8%

What does it mean the compounded annual return (CAR) is 24.9% for a four year period?

Let assume that I have invest 1m 4 years ago and the CAR is 24.9%. Assuming I also reinvested all dividends into the fund. Now the amount of that portfolio will theoretically grow to 2,435,000. If I can earn this CAR for 20 years, the amount will grow to 85.5m!

But in actual fact I have only 1,767,000 in the portfolio after 4 years. Why the shortfall?

First though the stocks in the portfolio resembles my actual portfolio, they are not exactly so. The main thing is my fingers are itchy and I did quite a bit of trading, changing some stocks, sell and buy back, punt some warrants, drawing out considerable amount of cash etc. In fact I have withdrawn approximately the same amount of money left in the portfolio now. So the actual CAR of my portfolio because of this is only 15.3%, a shortfall of 9.6%. What a huge difference.

Compared with the NAV of icap of which the fund manager holds one third of its assets in cash with say 4% interest and the approximate CAR of 10% for the equity holding, icap's 4-year CAR worked out to be approximately 8.1%, another huge difference in return.

What is the lesson learned here? I can sum up some here:

1)Frequent trading may not be good for a long term investor.
2)Drawing of money instead of reinvesting the dividend is not a good idea if your investment is for long term. Let the magic of compounding interest works for you.
3) Companies paying high dividend, instead of reinvesting most its FCF in value enhancing projects may not be good for shareholders.
4) Too much worry about macro-economic uncertainties like what Tan Teng Boo has been doing for icap and hence trying to time the market may not be good for value investors. This is TTB's Achilles heel.
5) A difference in a few percentage points makes a huge difference in the final amount of money in compounding.

2013-09-15 17:30

houseofordos

kc do u do asset allocation ? how many % u invested in stocks ?

2013-09-15 17:58

I do have asset allocation for fixed income too. But each person is different according to the risk profile of each individual, age group, risk appetite, family circumstances, income etc etc. so cannot compare like that.

2013-09-15 19:55

The return from the stock market for the last 5 years

“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.”
- Robert G. Allen

一生能夠積累多少財富，不取決於你能夠賺多少錢，而取決於你如何投資理財，錢找人勝過人找錢，要懂得錢為你工作，而不是你為錢工作 Warren Buffet

In the last 5 years soon after the world economies recovered from the US sublime housing crisis, investing in the equity market provides fantastic returns for long term investors.

The KLSE index rose from 838 to close at 1813 on 29th November 2013 from 5 years ago for a total gain of 116%. On average, the compounded annual growth (CAGR) each year is 11%, more than double the 3%-4% return from fixed deposit in banks.

The active Malaysian unit trust funds investing in the equity market on average returned 1% to 2% more than the broad market, with the best 5% of the funds returned double that of the broad market. This shows the value added in active fund management in the last 5 years in Malaysia.

Investors would do well to learn from deer hunters and fishermen who know the importance of “being there” and using patient persistence-so they are there when opportunity knocks.
Charles Ellis Investment Policy

I would like to take this opportunity to share with you my experience and philosophies in investing in Bursa for a long-term basis. This is merely for sharing and discussing of investing ideas and not for any other purpose.

Most would know that I invest base on fundamental approach in value investing. When I talk about value investing in the stock market, I am talking about buying stocks of good companies with intrinsic values (IV) at a comfortable margin of safety (MOS), and then sell them when the price of the stocks have risen closed to the intrinsic values, or when I have found another better stock to invest in. Time is needed for that to happen, and we are talking of a time horizon of years, not days, weeks or months. So to see the performance of a portfolio of stocks, we have to look at the CAGR for years as compared to the broad market. My investing experience does appear to show that value investing works. In actual fact it appears to work extremely well.

Tan Kian Wei, one of the major contributors in i3 has put up my long term portfolio some time ago as shown in the following link:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/13147.jsp

Table 1 below shows the prices of the stocks in the portfolio for various years ago. The prices obtained from Yahoo Finance shown have adjusted for any dividend paid, and any corporate exercise such as bonus and right issues. Some of the prices are missing mostly because of their short period of public listing.

Table 2 below shows that all 10 stocks in the portfolio have positive CAGR every year except for one stock, SKP Resource of just one year of negative return, i.e. last year of -8.6%. Taking off this return of last year, it actually have done extremely well with average CAGR of more than 30% each year. A incredible phenomenon is that almost all CAGRs for each stocks and each year are in double digit number. The best performer is Pintaras Jaya with CAGR each one to five years of more than 40%.

The average CAGR of the portfolio is 30% each year as shown in Table 3, out-performs the broad market of 11% by a whopping 300%. On average, the excess return over the broad market is about 19% each year.

I have to admit that there are portfolios by others which are better than the above performance. However, the purpose of this sharing is to show that when one does value investing, i.e. buying a stock at a comfortable MOS and hence taken care of risk, the upside will take care of itself.

Table 1:
Stock Name Code Price now 1 2 3 4 5
Kfima 6491 1.98 1.78 1.74 1.33 0.830 0.375
Pintaras 9598 6.20 3.13 2.30 1.96 1.46 1.15
ECS 5162 1.2 1.07 0.833 0.735 xxxx xxxx
Plenitude 5075 2.74 1.77 2.030 2.13 1.35 0.865
Jobstreest *0058 2.15 1.17 1.400 1.440 0.715 0.625
Pantech 5125 0.99 0.705 0.465 0.615 0.792 0.363
SKPRes 7155 0.320 0.35 0.180 0.150 0.113 0.057
NTPM 5066 0.700 0.44 0.500 0.555 0.520 0.2667
Kimlun 5171 1.84 1.61 1.520 1.040 xxxx xxxx
Prestariang 5204 2.60 1.09 xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
KLCI KLSE 1813 1611 1489 1501 1270 838

Table 2 30/11/2013 xxxx xxxx xxxx Years xxxx xxxx
Stock Name Code Price now 1 2 3 4 5
Kfima 6491 1.98 11.2% 6.7% 14.2% 24.3% 39.5%
Pintaras 9598 6.20 98.1% 64.2% 46.8% 43.6% 40.1%
ECS 5162 1.20 12.1% 20.0% 17.8% xxxx xxxx
Plenitude 5075 2.74 54.8% 16.2% 8.8% 19.4% 25.9%
Jobstreest *0058 2.15 83.8% 23.9% 14.3% 31.7% 28.0%
Pantech 5125 0.99 40.4% 45.9% 17.2% 5.7% 22.3%
SKPRes 7155 0.320 -8.6% 33.3% 28.7% 29.6% 41.4%
NTPM 5066 0.700 59.1% 18.3% 8.0% 7.7% 21.3%
Kimlun 5171 1.84 14.3% 10.0% 20.9% xxxx xxxx
Prestariang 5204 2.60 138.5% xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx

Table 3:
Year 1 2 3 4 5 Average
Average Portfolio CAR 50.4% 26.5% 19.6% 23.1% 31.2% 30.2%
KLSE CAR 12.5% 10.3% 6.5% 9.3% 16.7% 11.1%
Excess return 37.8% 16.2% 13.1% 13.8% 14.5% 19.1%

2013-11-30 18:51

houseofordos

KC good job on your picks. What is ur view on holding small caps in a bear market ? Would the portfolio be as resilient ? It s been sometime since we ve seen one. I believe that small caps tend to outperform in bull market and get beaten down more in bear market.

2013-11-30 20:04

Hk Wong

Buy dksh at 2.02. Sell some and still keep some

2013-11-30 20:28