Posted by FX Lee > 2016-10-28 10:33 | Report Abuse

creative accounting?

Posted by meathere > 2016-10-28 11:01 | Report Abuse

smartly, every company also can have future prospects; so is not really a good indicator in general for any counter. For Jay, he emphasized more on CONFIRMED orderbook. LOA has time limit and/or Vivocom may not successfully get the projects. In a nutshell; if comparing company A, B, and C, than compare with reliable indicators such as CONFIRMED orderbook only for all A, B, and C company. Unless if you said you have crystal ball to see A, but no crystal ball for B and C company, than I rest my case.

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-28 13:54 | Report Abuse

of course everyone can have different approach. some prefer companies which they think have good prospects which market cannot accurately capture now. such approach usually carries high risk high return

Posted by ktsk88 > 2016-10-28 14:04 | Report Abuse

so we can assume that the projection based on Jay tabulation is until 3Q2015 and didn't take into any further announced projects?...............so the fair value of 0.16s or whatsoever is valid until 3Q2015?

So this is half baked story and projection?..............if in the world of investment and you relied on half baked stories and projections................you're dead meat.

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-28 14:23 | Report Abuse

don't waste my effort in putting up the lists. even after nicely put in table the date of announcement also can miss then you can blame no one but yourself...

Posted by Wing Destiny > 2016-10-28 14:27 | Report Abuse

Dont mis lead people la, this is the one active stock in Bursa and i3!!! and this counter is for speculator only!!! DOnt stupid until believe this counter can fly xD

YOu rather watch Opensys then this stupid VIVO xD

Whoever watch something related with VIVO will get greatest explore, and gain viewed!!!! Please do something contribute, dont simple want to gain viewed !!!!
Thank you xD

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2016-10-28 14:29 | Report Abuse

avoide

Posted by Wing Destiny > 2016-10-28 14:41 | Report Abuse

Who buy who die and just wasting time, all people already in and out this counter. My suggestion is to in some potential market rather than this Penny stock.

Dont waste your time and effort to wait,,,, then lose money and time in the end of the day.

Posted by Wing Destiny > 2016-10-28 14:43 | Report Abuse

We put our eyes to see, this counter will dead soon or go to GN3 ??

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-28 22:45 | Report Abuse

most of the HOAs have expired, so I think it's better to look forward to other new contracts. the fair price will only last for 2016, which is coming to an end. 2017 onwards are not secured yet. they need to keep winning contracts, if not the profit will start to drop from next year. if market price is close to fair price that means there's no margin of safety. many things can go wrong for any company, not getting new revenue, delay in projects, margin compression etc. which is why it's best to avoid company with no margin of safety

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-10-29 08:44 | Report Abuse

Mr Jay, I think you make a big mistake. Please validate the HOA direct with Vivocom official with a simple call. I can very confident my list of order books is accurate and stood at approximately rm3bil up to today. Maybe u are not a shareholders and you don't even have a courage to do so. Vivocom as project delivery partner with crcc is still waiting award for crcc on Gemas Johor double railway and other new project.

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-10-29 08:47 | Report Abuse

Be responsible when you wish to write something and be honest if you wish to publish something that may affect innocent investor.

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-10-29 08:48 | Report Abuse

Your motive is very clear indication of judgement before court trial.

Posted by nokenzo > 2016-10-29 09:18 | Report Abuse

Jay, thanks for your detailed hard work. A job well done. Keep it up.

Posted by Jay > 2016-10-29 10:19 | Report Abuse

@CKNYAM the one who misleads trying to accuse others or misleading
I have noticed that you have been trolling a lot of pages in this forum hard-selling vivo based on your "orderbook" so if you are butt-hurt by the facts presented, it's your problem.

1. Please understand what is orderbook. Orderbook is CONFIRMED orders with contractual obligations if one party backs out. When your list has HOA, automatically your RM3bil figures has no credibility

2. Read the HOAs, it's not that long. Like what I highlighted in the article, most of them have deadlines, if deadline has passed, no announcement of contract and no announcement of extension, what do you expect? If it's still on, then Vivo is in violation of listing requirements for not making timely announcement

Let me dumb it down for the likes of you:
If a company wants to hire you and say let's discuss our terms and by end of the month, we shall finalise and sign an employment contract. If not, you are not obligated to work and I am not obligated to pay you. After end of the month, no contract was offered. Are you hired? Will you report to work?

3. Yes I'm not a shareholder and I don't bother to call them. Why? From my experience dealing with corporate figures, many people can say many things. But when you ask them to commit in writing, they will change tune or chicken out.

Why don't you request your company to commit themselves in the next QR to state what is their orderbook? Not orderbook+HOA, JUST orderbook.

4. CRCC links have been explained in the article. If you choose to believe that CRCC will subcontract to Vivo to sub-sub-contract, that's your own choice.

Bottom line,
- If you can't even tell contract from HOA, or orderbook from tenderbook, you are not even qualified to talk about this stock
- It's one thing to plead ignorance when you troll i3 with your "orderbook" but if by now you can already tell the difference, you still continue to troll the forum with the same lousy list, then your intentions are very clear
- Like I mentioned in my last article on MBSB, if you want to argue based on technical charts, rumours etc. go ahead. If you want to challenge my facts or arguments, please show your side of facts and arguments. Don't go whining "you are wrong, I'm right" like kindergarten kids

To other readers, if you notice @CKNYAM trolling other pages again to promote Vivo, feel free to post my comment here or even links to this article. Let the readers decide and prevent people from falling into traps set by irresponsible characters posting inaccurate facts

Posted by barlog > 2016-11-01 07:57 | Report Abuse

Its good sharing by everyone here, my leason is trust myself not even what the big bank analysis said. I think value sharing and discusion here is the purpose, blindly follow will just risking my own hard earn money.

Posted by Jay > 2016-11-29 16:41 | Report Abuse

made an error previously. fully diluted shares should be more than 4b, so diluted EPS revised down. for 2016 I also adjusted margins to be higher than 15% as first half margins were relatively high. all in, the analysis shows that vivo's FV shd b even lower than previously estimated

Posted by Sephy > 2016-11-30 23:22 | Report Abuse

Vivocom clearly a scam stock now as evident by CIMB's hoax report. Everyone will stay away now.

Posted by Vivo > 2016-12-01 03:42 | Report Abuse

Vivo comrades you don't know have to follow Vivo haters here. What they said here not true. At least recent slide not due to Vivo directors selling unlike some hot counter like Ekovest, etc.

Posted by Jay > 2016-12-01 13:13 | Report Abuse

it's sad that even after facts are laid bare in front of you, still in denial. wake up, none of Vivo directors own any shares except Anne, who has also ceased to be substantial shareholder since Sept, so she can now sell quietly without disclosing. Vivo is a company which its own directors also don't want to hold shares

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-01 14:29 | Report Abuse

Market is full of risk

Don't seek even more risk from sharks

Posted by kglim > 2016-12-01 22:44 | Report Abuse

non of the directors hold share ? how to see ? isn't Annual Report disclose their holdings ? if really NO, then bye bye lo

Posted by Jay > 2016-12-07 10:28 | Report Abuse

now it's 15.5c compared to 18c when I wrote this. my fair value is 15c, so only recommended to enter at below 12c so there would be sufficient upside

Posted by investor001 > 2016-12-07 19:55 | Report Abuse

You didn't include the project in Bandar Tasik Amanjaya worth RM758mil (four phases with each phase has a contract value of RM189.5mil, duation 36 months, and the phases may run concurrently). It's a confirmed contract.

http://www.suaraperak.com/single-post/2016/08/04/MB-Inc-Bina-4000-Rumah-Mampu-Milik

It should add RM252.67mil revenue for 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively.

Posted by investor001 > 2016-12-07 20:14 | Report Abuse

Speaking of diluted eps, obviously people who are holding the warrants won't exercise all their warrants immediately because by doing so they will suffer a loss. The maturity date of Vivocom's warrant:

WB: 08 Sep 2018
WC: 22 Jan 2020
WD: 08 Jul 2020

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-12-08 01:01 | Report Abuse

Investor bro, I fully agree with you.

Posted by Jay > 2016-12-08 08:35 | Report Abuse

if you bother reading earlier comments, i already mentioned the RM190m spread over 3 years will add about 0.2c eps annually. in that case, 2017 eps will be around 1.1-1.2c

just look around all the property projects, every developer are being cautious now. do you really think they will launch more than 1 phase concurrently in this kind of market? why would the developer risk holding inventories by launching multiple phases together? perak housing market is not outperforming the other states, just because it mentioned it may be launched concurrently doesn't mean it will. it's more likely they won't unless there's unusually high demand in perak

on diluted eps, there's only 2 scenarios, one is they expire worthless or warrant holders may covert before expiry to enjoy the upside or salvage whatever value left. either way it will cap the upside of the stock. just imagine you are owner of a biz, you think it's worth x amount but someone else has the option to take a % from you, do you think when you calculate your net worth you can conveniently ignore the option? especially when the option will take almost 25% of your biz. only if the option has indeed expired, then you can breath easily

Posted by Jay > 2016-12-08 08:43 | Report Abuse

another troubling thing I didn't highlight in this article previously is that none of the directors hold any shares in this company (Anne has ceased to be substantial shareholder, actual % unknown now)

when the company keep on doing placement, bonus issues etc. and has such a huge share base (>3 billion), you wonder why none of the directors bother taking the opportunity to get a piece of the pie? especially when price has corrected over quite some time

it shouldn't be a major factor in valuing the company but is a point worth considering

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-12-08 09:00 | Report Abuse

When director hold shares in company and sell off their share for profits, investor will comment director has no confidents and also unload his share. When director not holding any share for to avoid conflict on interest, you said they are manipulator. A coin with two side of side. Bunch of bull shits.

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-12-08 09:01 | Report Abuse

When Vivocom downtrend reversal, be prepare to write another grand mother father story.

Posted by Jay > 2016-12-08 09:08 | Report Abuse

it's called alignment of interest, it's the same reasoning why companies give ESOS to retain employees. imagine your active biz partner doesn't want to hold shares, don't you feel a bit concerned?

unless Vivo surprises in terms of new contract wins, if not it looks like the party's over. price overshot fundamentals, so correction is just normal

Posted by investor001 > 2016-12-08 16:21 | Report Abuse

You still need to list the Bandar Tasik Amanjaya project as a confirmed contract for not misleading the readers.

In fact the affordable houses are still in high demand despite recent property slowdown.

I wouldn't say we shouldn't worry about the diluted eps forever but just it's not a matter for at least 1 year from now, and you know many things can happen in one year. That is just for WB that will be mature on 08 Sep 2018. The maturity date of WC and WD are in 2020.

I think you just illustrated an extreme worst circumstances. I don't think the price has overshot its fundamentals, unless you want a lot of margin of safely like ICAP fund manager Tan Teng Boo. I would say your article is just for reference. Everyone should do their own works.

Posted by Jay > 2016-12-08 17:55 | Report Abuse

Previously I didn't include it because it lacks details so you don't know if the developer are going ahead with it.

It's not just demand but financing, just look at loan application and loan approval rates for residential houses you will see the grim picture. And affordable segment are those that are most hard pressed in financing

You can't dismiss something just because it is not happening yet. It is there hanging over your head, someone will come for your company if it does well

I haven't even got to the extreme worst. Look at Q3, revenue slowed down considerably. Worst case would be most of their orderbooks are stalled (as property developers struggle to sell), revenue delays and margins contract to normal industry rate like 12%. that's the worst

But of course you should do your own work. If you still want to invest that's your own money

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-12-08 18:35 | Report Abuse

Period of job award to complete range 24 to 36 months. Vivocom as subcontractors are not bothering how much developer has sales all their units or not. Vivocom has to make sure the project is not delay and Bill according to projects complete percentage . So don't add that slow sales risk into Vivocom. They complete how much the project and they claims the revenue.

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-12-08 18:37 | Report Abuse

And they even not invest money to buy land.

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-12-08 18:40 | Report Abuse

Revenue q3 drop has been explained in the report that different cycle billing. Maybe q4 will pick up back the suppose revenue in q3. But they still make better revenue and profits on last 4 quarter comparing previous result. Don't write until Vivocom is a pn17 or engage with a lot wind up petition company

Posted by Jay > 2016-12-11 08:50 | Report Abuse

CKNYAM, this will be the last time I respond to careless comments from you. you can't even read my comments correctly, it's this kind of attitude that lead you to take HOAs etc. as part of orderbook and unshamefully spam the whole forum

i already mentioned before they don't have direct sales risk in the article. what I'm saying is they are still indirectly exposed to developer's sales risk and the overall property industry. if your customer having difficulties to sell the houses and ask you yo delay the construction, would you still go ahead and construct?

q3 may or may not be a blip, especially if you exclude sales from other segment, construction plummeted a lot. but I didn't change my forecast, did I? I said that would be the extreme worst case, which I haven't assumed

just because I said it's not worth this price doesn't make it a PN17. I guess in your small mind, all stocks with very low price are troubled company.

grow up and start paying attention to details

Posted by CKNYAM > 2016-12-11 12:38 | Report Abuse

Time will tell it all. When Vivocom share price start appreciate, see who to grow up. U had failed in Pesona. And next U will failed again.

Posted by Freshman73 > 2017-05-31 21:59 | Report Abuse

You are right after all Jay. Profit down to 74%

Posted by Freshman73 > 2017-05-31 22:00 | Report Abuse

Should have listen...now i suffer the cause of losses

Posted by hornbill > 2017-06-05 17:17 | Report Abuse

forget this vivocom.

Posted by Ismylife73 > 2017-06-09 11:22 | Report Abuse

Sell this vivo all.