Posted by probability > 2017-04-27 22:17 | Report Abuse

Saw the performance of South Steel,

Better than expected.
If people in the steel field,
Should all know about 2017 years of March,
Steel Company sales are not high!

Why?

Because everyone is watching the steel protection tax released April.
As a result, South Steel continues to produce outstanding quarterly results.
South Steel 3 quarters of the EPS20.82.

Plus the 4th quarter of the explosion table EPS,
I can see EPS30.00 all year round.
To PE8X,
The target price of RM2.40 should be achieved within 1 years.

If the international steel market is the same as now,
In the next 3 years, South Steel's performance will rise further.
The day of dividend will come, two times a year.
If it is operated, there is no dividend for each quarter.

Performance forecasts, the company retained some provision,
To prepare for a lawsuit, is the former machine supplier dispute.
After retaining the provision, the profit is still outstanding.

The stock of South Steel was observed and climbed to nearly 700 million.
This is required for the next 3 years of tax protection,
As long as the stock is sufficient, local engineering uses local goods,
That South Steel has the ability to sell 900 million per quarter,
Production costs will fall as long as capacity use rises,
That PBT can at least rise to 6.
Sales in 900 million quarters, and 6%PBT,
It is also normal to earn 54 million per quarter after that.

As for the dividend style,
Ssteel likes to give some quarters every quarter.

Posted by probability > 2017-04-28 00:07 | Report Abuse

the inventory rise gives a strong message to me

Posted by 没怎么读到书的市集人 > 2017-04-28 00:23 | Report Abuse

Historically, the last 3 quarters' diluted EPS = 15.13 cents
Assuming next quarter similar to 3Q, Estimated Diluted EPS for YA2017 = 20.61

PE7 = RM1.44
PE8 = RM1.65

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2017/04/27/1505955133-265088870.pdf
https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2016/11/14/1485637478-1878820049.pdf
https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2017/02/14/1485784577-528364489.pdf

Posted by 没怎么读到书的市集人 > 2017-04-28 00:25 | Report Abuse

For sharing only, when valuing a company, never use gross EPS but only diluted EPS.

Please refer SAM Engineering for another example.

Posted by 没怎么读到书的市集人 > 2017-04-28 00:28 | Report Abuse

However, target price is always very subjective, PE8 or 10 may be too high or too low. PEMetal is another good example & market will decide.

Posted by probability > 2017-04-28 00:37 | Report Abuse

The most mind boggling fact is that its current EPS was a result of its Gross profit margin barely higher than the duty level of 13.5%...(that is the safeguard margin! - the bare minimum one can expect).

Thus, dont think it will be difficult to maintain an average of 20% GPM level going forward for the next 3 years... 20% GPM = 13% Net profit margin. Current Net profit margin is ~5%.

5% to 13% Net Margin, that is a whopping 140% increase from its current bottom line (EPS of 8 currently will shoot to 20 cents).

that time all the dilution effects will vaporize...

Please refer CAB Cakaran for an example.

Posted by probability > 2017-04-28 00:43 | Report Abuse

This kinda rise in EPS can only happen in SSTEEL...not ANNJOO...not any other damn stock.

SSTEEL is basically the LEVERAGED VERSION of ANNJOO.....

if future is bright..SSTEEL will shine like a STAR..
if future is dim...SSTEEL will become a BLACKHOLE..

unlike ANNJOO..neither can it be star nor a blackhole..

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-04-28 00:43 | Report Abuse

Can we conclude steel play still intact? Another bull run for steel soon

Posted by Albukhary > 2017-04-28 07:47 | Report Abuse

Generally, ANNJOO already enjoyed its bull run.
But for SSTEEL, investor are stay aside because they worry the profit is not sustainable.
However, with continuous 3 quarter strong profit, plus the long wait dividend, the market confidence will be back, and it is time for SSTEEL to catch up ANNJOO.

Posted by Albukhary > 2017-04-28 07:51 | Report Abuse

And again, feel appreciate to have Leoting to provide us the first hand information.
As a value investor, something it is very lonely, because there are less investor here, compare to those hot hot goreng counter.

Posted by chl1989 > 2017-05-01 15:26 | Report Abuse

please pay attention to the dilution of its LB. Lionind is a better bet :)

Posted by Albukhary > 2017-05-01 16:46 | Report Abuse

chl1989, yup, investor need to paid attention to the dilution of the LB. For Lionind, I have less confidence on its management, worry they manipulate the account, or announce some corporate exercise which not fair to minority shareholder.