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[转贴] 钢铁第6报告之南钢第3季度业绩! - Leo Ting

Tan KW
Publish date: Thu, 27 Apr 2017, 10:12 PM
Tan KW
0 496,238
Good.

Thursday, 27 April 2017 







































 

看了南钢业绩,
比预期中好一些。
如果在钢铁领域中的人,
应该都知道2017年的3月,
钢铁公司的销售都不高!

为什么呢?
因为大家都在观望4月出炉的钢铁保护税啊!
结果,南钢依然交出了出色的季度业绩。
南钢3个季度的EPS20.82 了。

加上第4个季度爆表的EPS,
全年可以上看EPS30.00 了。
以PE8X来说, 
RM2.40的目标价应该会在1年内达到。

如果国际钢铁市场跟现在一样,
那未来3年,南钢的业绩将会进一步上升。
派息的日子将来到,一年派两次息吧。
如果经营了得,每季派息也无不可吧。

业绩展望,公司保留了一些provision,
预备给打官司之用,就是之前机器供应商的纠纷。
在保留了provision之后,盈利依然出色。

观察了南钢的库存,爬升到了接近7亿。
这是接下来3年保护税所需要的,
只要库存充足,本地工程用本地货,
那南钢具有每个季度销售9亿的能力,
只要产能使用上升,生产成本将下跌,
那PBT至少可以上升到6-7%。
以9亿的季度销售,和6%PBT,
那以后每个季度赚5400万也是正常事了。
 
















 

至于派息风格,

Ssteel是喜欢每个季度给一些的。

 

 

http://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/04/63.html

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2 people like this. Showing 12 of 12 comments

probability

Saw the performance of South Steel,

Better than expected.
If people in the steel field,
Should all know about 2017 years of March,
Steel Company sales are not high!

Why?

Because everyone is watching the steel protection tax released April.
As a result, South Steel continues to produce outstanding quarterly results.
South Steel 3 quarters of the EPS20.82.

Plus the 4th quarter of the explosion table EPS,
I can see EPS30.00 all year round.
To PE8X,
The target price of RM2.40 should be achieved within 1 years.

If the international steel market is the same as now,
In the next 3 years, South Steel's performance will rise further.
The day of dividend will come, two times a year.
If it is operated, there is no dividend for each quarter.

Performance forecasts, the company retained some provision,
To prepare for a lawsuit, is the former machine supplier dispute.
After retaining the provision, the profit is still outstanding.

The stock of South Steel was observed and climbed to nearly 700 million.
This is required for the next 3 years of tax protection,
As long as the stock is sufficient, local engineering uses local goods,
That South Steel has the ability to sell 900 million per quarter,
Production costs will fall as long as capacity use rises,
That PBT can at least rise to 6.
Sales in 900 million quarters, and 6%PBT,
It is also normal to earn 54 million per quarter after that.

As for the dividend style,
Ssteel likes to give some quarters every quarter.

2017-04-27 22:17

probability

the inventory rise gives a strong message to me

2017-04-28 00:07

没怎么读到书的市集人

Historically, the last 3 quarters' diluted EPS = 15.13 cents
Assuming next quarter similar to 3Q, Estimated Diluted EPS for YA2017 = 20.61

PE7 = RM1.44
PE8 = RM1.65

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2017/04/27/1505955133-265088870.pdf
https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2016/11/14/1485637478-1878820049.pdf
https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2017/02/14/1485784577-528364489.pdf

2017-04-28 00:23

没怎么读到书的市集人

For sharing only, when valuing a company, never use gross EPS but only diluted EPS.

Please refer SAM Engineering for another example.

2017-04-28 00:25

没怎么读到书的市集人

However, target price is always very subjective, PE8 or 10 may be too high or too low. PEMetal is another good example & market will decide.

2017-04-28 00:28

probability

The most mind boggling fact is that its current EPS was a result of its Gross profit margin barely higher than the duty level of 13.5%...(that is the safeguard margin! - the bare minimum one can expect).

Thus, dont think it will be difficult to maintain an average of 20% GPM level going forward for the next 3 years... 20% GPM = 13% Net profit margin. Current Net profit margin is ~5%.

5% to 13% Net Margin, that is a whopping 140% increase from its current bottom line (EPS of 8 currently will shoot to 20 cents).

that time all the dilution effects will vaporize...

Please refer CAB Cakaran for an example.

2017-04-28 00:37

probability

This kinda rise in EPS can only happen in SSTEEL...not ANNJOO...not any other damn stock.

SSTEEL is basically the LEVERAGED VERSION of ANNJOO.....

if future is bright..SSTEEL will shine like a STAR..
if future is dim...SSTEEL will become a BLACKHOLE..

unlike ANNJOO..neither can it be star nor a blackhole..

2017-04-28 00:43

paperplane2016

Can we conclude steel play still intact? Another bull run for steel soon

2017-04-28 00:43

Albukhary

Generally, ANNJOO already enjoyed its bull run.
But for SSTEEL, investor are stay aside because they worry the profit is not sustainable.
However, with continuous 3 quarter strong profit, plus the long wait dividend, the market confidence will be back, and it is time for SSTEEL to catch up ANNJOO.

2017-04-28 07:47

Albukhary

And again, feel appreciate to have Leoting to provide us the first hand information.
As a value investor, something it is very lonely, because there are less investor here, compare to those hot hot goreng counter.

2017-04-28 07:51

chl1989

please pay attention to the dilution of its LB. Lionind is a better bet :)

2017-05-01 15:26

Albukhary

chl1989, yup, investor need to paid attention to the dilution of the LB. For Lionind, I have less confidence on its management, worry they manipulate the account, or announce some corporate exercise which not fair to minority shareholder.

2017-05-01 16:46

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