Posted by YJInvest > 2020-11-05 21:56 | Report Abuse

Thanks Calvin. Good write-up. Clear and precise as to why plantation stocks will soar like the eagles :)

Posted by Mabel > 2020-11-06 07:33 | Report Abuse

Well Done Calvin

Very Good Research!

God Bless YOU!

Posted by Plantermen > 2020-11-06 07:48 | Report Abuse

Plantatio counters have started recovering from their low but too early to have a bullish buy. They have recovered from their year low and not on a hot streak. Counters like Rsawit or TSH have not hit their year high despite CPO is on roll at their 4 year high { hitting above 3,300 per tonne} Rsawit trading at 29 sen {against their high of 48} TSH manged to close at 1.02 { still far below this year high of 1.54}

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-06 10:28 | Report Abuse

Yes same sentiment in March 2020 when Supermax fell to the low of Rm1.30

When wuhan virus started in Dec 2019 Supermax month high was Rm1.47

Those who bought Supermax at Rm1.47 and sold at cutloss price of Rm1.30 in March 2020 must have banged their head on the walls when Supermax reached Rm24.44 in less then 6 months

Same scene is now being played out in palm oil coming bull run

Many are still skeptical so we are very happy to take them while still cheap

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-06 11:18 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-06 11:30 | Report Abuse

Typhoons Destroyed all China Crops

1.4 Billion people from China need lots of Palm oil

So they panic buy

See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fpL-tGBuAI

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-06 11:49 | Report Abuse

Rare hurricane in Greece

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-y439aPFvA

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-06 11:51 | Report Abuse

FLOODS IN FRANCE & ITALY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1z-duvVqCv4

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-06 11:53 | Report Abuse

Hurricanes in USA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkOQNUYpvFg

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-06 11:56 | Report Abuse

Some places got Typhoon, Cyclone & Hurricanes

Others plagued by Drought

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmsbyfqYSng

Posted by Plantermen > 2020-11-06 20:54 | Report Abuse

Calvintaneng :agreed with your reasoning but the main issue lies with palm { CPO } itself. It's not a price maker but it tends to correlate closely with SBO and other competing soft oils. Demand is seasonal and with Brent crude { Gas oil spread } trading at a big discount. Demand for biofuel will not be robust. Not viable to sustain the used of palm biofuel in the long run.
Nevertheless with the El nino or La nina production of palm may be affected. China and India holds the key. Hopefully, we can see better days and higher prices in the coming 3-4 months.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-06 22:47 | Report Abuse

From Nov 2020 USA Soybean harvest will be completed

Over in Brazil Hot Dry Weather delayed Soy-bean planting from Sept to Oct 2020
So there won't be Soy-bean for 3 months from Nov 2019 to February 2021

In these 3 months there won't be competing Soy bean Oil on planet earth unless old stocks

Palm oil on the other hand is ever green

So production and harvesting of FFB continues twice a month all year round. Total 26 months in one year

Today in Budget Speech FELDA is directly mentioned. Govt will waive Rm400 million loan interest of felda

Also incentive for both Rubber & Palm oil

These will directly benefit FGV the most

Posted by keown83 > 2020-11-07 01:54 | Report Abuse

i like your analysis on this counter..quite interesting as for palm oil counter i usually look at fgv & sop..what's your take on these 2 counter?

will thematic trading happen to palm oil counters or only certain counter will shine?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-07 08:56 | Report Abuse

Keown83

Thank you

First i must correct my statement
Palm oil harvest is 26 times a year (not 26 months)

And regarding Fgv and Sop yes both are good now

Sop is very popular with funds and investors. So its prices are stable. Fgv has gone through a very rough time. In fact i once branded FGV as "Fraud Governed Victim)

Since i like to buy bargains i prefer Fgv now due to its bombed out price from listing of almost Rm6.00

Like Sop.... Fgv top 30 shareholders are 100 per cent Local Funds and Foreign Funds owned. Amanah Saham Bumi also inside

It is no wonder then the Govt budget allocates Rm400 millions to help Felda relieves loan interest. Plus incentive for rubber and palm oil will also help

So Fgv being the palm oil stock specially mentioned by name is now the Top Buy

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-07 09:02 | Report Abuse

Not only Fgv only all other palm oil stocks will go up due to Cpo price rise.

The performance depends on two things

1. Its exposure to palm oil upstream
Among them are Rsawit (100 per cent pure palm oil) jtiasa (more palm oil less lumber), in contrast Wtk has more lumber less palm oil except Wtk has better net cash.

2. Its geographical location
Jtiasa has all its palm oil in Sarawak while Tsh has operation in Indonesia
Since Malaysia offers tax free incentive while Indonesia impose tax on palm oil Jtiasa is better than Tsh anytime

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2020-11-07 14:29 | Report Abuse

Rsawit ,Jtiasa , Tsh , TDM , FGV are all bomb out counters and pure upstream players. Tsh is one of the more efficient private owned producers {estate's landbank and mill's locality } is a plus point. their Mill's electrical power energy production tie up with TNB electric grid is a added upside advantage. just my own personal take & observation

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-07 17:06 | Report Abuse

Tsh is ok

Only setback is its operations in a indonesia sujected to tax

Malaysia palm oil companies enjoy tax free incentive

That is what Malaysia palm oil stocks now more active than those from Spore

I got two indonesia palm oil stocks listed in Spore

Bumitama has moved slightly

Golden agri still not move yet

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-07 17:11 | Report Abuse

Yesterday soybean oil in USA closed solidly above Usd35

So this coming week might witness fcpo cross the Rm3500 barrier

Big big surprise is

Even China Palm oil Ipo by Wilmar spin-off was very hot

And Wilmar Spore also up by more than 20 per cent

Now market still ignore palm oil upcoming bull run

Posted by johoran > 2020-11-07 22:41 | Report Abuse

TSH, SOP,BPLANT,FGV

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-11-07 22:56 | Report Abuse

A rising tide lifts all boats

So all companies with exposure to palm oil will go up in tandem

Only by degree. Some more. Some less

Our mission is to find the best

Posted by byehisello > 2020-11-09 12:20 | Report Abuse

tqvm sipu calvin tan this morning bought some