In its latest weekly snapshot of global COVID-19 activity, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday that cases rose for the fourth week in a row, led by cases in the Americas and Europe, with deaths now leveling off after a 6-week drop.
Though much of the rise was spread across four of the WHO's regions, rises were especially steep in certain countries, such as India, where cases were up by 35% over the previous week.
KUALA LUMPUR, March 15 — Malaysia, the world’s biggest rubber gloves manufacturer, is racing to increase production to close a supply gap caused by the coronavirus pandemic that it warns could last until into 2023.
Even with global production expected to ramp up to 420 billion this year from 380 billion last year and annual growth of 10-15 per cent, Supramaniam said excess demand could run into 2023. Malaysia expects to supply 280 billion, or 67 per cent, of that increased global supply.
Directors’ buying support is not the main matter to make us to buy glove shares at higher prices but we need to look into the whole glove trend .
The good point is you have chance to wait for lower prices of glove shares at lower budget over next 3 months that is my 2 cents .
I have been avoiding glove counters for 3 months and monitoring glove stocks first over ASP and the world demand and supply trend until IB stable buying trend who have those information, you never have as retail investors.
@Fundamental123 I agree we need to look at the underlying numbers but something doesn't seem right when you compare glove company performance on Bursa vs Thailand (Sri Trang) and Singapore (Riverstone, UG Healthcare).
Make two comparisons: between current prices and pre-pandemic prices, and between PE ratios. I am using Google Finance PE readings at today's closing prices, to be consistent.
From there you see that Riverstone (whose factories are in Malaysia btw, just that it's not listed on Bursa) PE is 8.86. The price is around 60% of the pandemic high. Similar pattern with UG Healthcare. Sri Trang gloves, almost exactly same pattern: 60% of pandemic high, PE 8.48.
Compare to Supermax (PE 4.45), Carepls (PE 5.75), Comfort (3.88). I leave TopGlove out of this since they have ESG concerns.
So what can we infer from this? Is it that the other big glove companies listed on SGX and Thailand stock exchange are overvalued, and it's only the IBs in Malaysia that are smart enough to price in decline in ASP? If we want to look at worldwide industry situation, why is it that Malaysian gloves trade at basically anywhere between 35-50% discount compared to their peers in Singapore and Thailand?
Seems to me there are a few things: (1) RSS effect on local sentiment. Can't run away from this. (2) The effect of so many non-glove companies on Bursa trying to 'diversify' into gloves, like Mah Sing and probably more than 10 other companies at this point. This creates fear that there will be an oversupply, but honestly, industry insiders are skeptical that these newcomers can compete with the established players who already have their supply chain connections, customer relationships, and expertise. Not to mention all the established players are so cash rich right now that their capex will give them an even bigger lead over newer players.
The whole situation is rather irrational but that's Bursa for you, I guess. If the price goes down over the next 3 months, I would say it's an opportunity to buy, but only for the strong hearted. No way of knowing where is lowest low. I thought Careplus would bottom out at 1.45 but here we're sitting at 1.3 and maybe can go even lower.
One thing for sure is that earnings still talks at the end of the day. If you got patience I think there will be a chance to make money here. But of course you can also say that about lots of other companies out there. Good luck everyone and be sure not to invest more than you are ready to lose.
Yes, I agree with you IN THEORY:) over comparison with same peer stock in other countries even glove share China which is much higher price but in practical market , it also depends who are the big influential players
If you know IBs trend and analysis from research house,you might understand the glove stock prices trend .
Experienced players also know well that foreign investors fund in Bursa has dropped seriously that is one of factors for market and just imagine why most of local fund sold a lot stake in glove counters as they were accidentally confident in their selling during the same period and research houses’ target prices for glove stocks will drop gradually look like plan.
RESEARCH HOUSES AND IBs Local funds are monitoring and waiting for bad news on glove supply more than demand to come out from research houses during the period, inexperienced investors will give up of selling their shares those they bought at much higher prices. Do you think retail investors can act against market trend on bad news ?
DO NOT fall in love with shares is our investment perception.
Therefore, to avoid glove counters, we focus on very good fundamental and potential business stocks that can be foreseen in future by reviewing financial results of Tech-related stocks :)
Ask yourself, why Frontken’s and Inari’s PE are so high as compared to glove stocks PE this year but still a lot of funds support them cause their future can be foreseen as investment stories for them in group .
REMEMBER, before COVID-19, glove stocks’ PE is extremely as high as more than 40 (PE) but local funds kept saying “buy call” because future glove profits were expected to be increased significantly THAT is funds investment stories. But now, many local funds found out that glove supply will be more than demand in future and and ASP will be very Low. Therefore, some small glove cap maybe suffer loss in next 2 years THAT are rumours have been around the market; they are waiting for opportunity to see the bad news on glove first as above.
So 1 + 1 IS NOT = 2 based on investment perception.
Of course, when glove stocks price drop to extreme Low prices like Supermax- RM2.90 and Kossan - RM2.50 and Hatta- RM6.50 and TG- RM3.60 JUST EXAMPLE following estimated Low profits of big 4 glove producers in future , then we are monitoring IBs support by quietly buying shares in good volume during poor market in next 3-6 months that sign I would like to see ...
REMEMBER, market sentiments always make share prices moving up and down unless you are able to know local IBs and big boys buying glove shares . For long term investment, Low prices of glove stocks in next 3-6 months might be opportunities but I am not god but I will apply my TA and trend skill to monitor funds buying shares QUIETLY during very poor market period in future.
In short , experienced players are waiting for bad news on over glove supply and estimated much lower ASP , by SOMEBODY, that will lower glove share target prices of big 4 glove producers in next 3-6 months are opportunities to monitor and buy the big 4’s shares.
@ Fundamentals - thanks for sharing but you back up your assertions with some data? Who is predicting that supply will exceed demand and ASP will be very low? I've seen some projections and from what I can tell, ASP is only really expected to 'normalise' after 5 years. 2021 and half of 2022 are already priced in, as the order booked are already filled. We're going to see the same level of profits at least for the next 4 quarters.
Anyway I'm not saying that the downtrend will not continue. I fully expect another 20-30% in the red. So I am looking to do the same thing as you too, buy cheap later on. I don't mind, my investments are in recovery play, but I still monitor gloves because it might lead to a future buying opportunity, and because I bought just before the pandemic and sold once I made my money.
I just think it's sad that we're getting manipulated by some IBs while it's not happening in the basically the same business in other countries, where their IBs are not trying this trick. That's all.
On my investment perception, TWO factors of local share market for glove stocks’ prices
1) local IBs are confident in their influences on big stocks as foreign fund % in Bursa have been at very Low level
2) Best thing is foreign research house’s TP for Top Glove that can help big boys to sell their shares first and buy back later after monitoring the bad news coming .
You guys can see that even Top Glove encounters bad news but other glove counters suffer from drop in their share prices that indicates poor market for glove stocks as glove sector has Low tech entry barriers but Malaysia has good strengths in geography over rubber supply.
My 2-cents: Anyway, poor market is alway great opportunities for us to target fundamental stocks in future just a matter of very cheap prices in right timing ( we wait for bad news come out and subsequently good news come out - after big boy collected good amount of the shares at cheap prices first )
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
clement95
77 posts
Posted by clement95 > 2021-03-24 15:24 | Report Abuse
Falling wedges seen on TA. Strong rebound is expected soon.