Fcpo reversing trend based on rainfall in South America — the are hopeful that South America can start plant soybeans —— note — start planting only —— still a long way to go before harvest to add onto existing global depleted stockpile .. Bias form of news to depress prices — so smart money can buy at cheap prices —- Then they will tell the other half story to push up prices ... So time to collect
The best time to buy is when there is a lot of bad news — but bear in mind ..palmoil depleting stockpile cannot be filled overnight , and new plantatings takes 3-4 years to start bearing fruit to produce the palmoil. So global edible oil shortages still lingers on .., US still in winter... Russia ,EU still in winter ... no plantings yet till April / may — harvest July: September... so still a long way to go before their depleting stockpile can be restored
Cpo and soybean uptrend back after realising a bit of rain in South America do not as yet solve the current reducing stockpile of cpo and soybeans . Stressed markets on edible oil - - lots of countries chasing limited stockpiles ..
They cannot replenish the soybean stockpile until April earliest if South America can get those beans planted in Feb . That is if weather permits ... The northern hemisphere can only plant when spring comes - April /May .. harvest on Aug/ sept . With lots of snow this year ... delay snow melts and . flooding across the plains in April /May can delay planting to end May/ jun ... and harvest sept / October .., if early cold winter comes - then lots of crop losses again can happen this year . So replenishing stockpile remains a challenge
That supports the cpo prices above the rm3000/ton level until September /October .. by then if situation is bad .. then prices will shoot towards rm4000/ton - RM5000/Ton year end .
So how can cpo go rm967/ton ? Production costs already about RM2000/ton .. unless there is a big glut of soybean or palmoil .. neither is happening anytime in the near future and not this foreseeable year .
"On the whole, the palm oil outlook in 2021 looks favourable compared with the average prices of 2019 and 2020," CPOPC added. It estimated palm prices this year would average around RM2,600-2,650 a tonne.2020年12月1日
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
SDR245
1,675 posts
Posted by SDR245 > 2021-01-20 23:19 | Report Abuse
Fcpo oversold and recover bit. Any drop its a opputunity to buy.