Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-08-11 10:50 | Report Abuse

If you want to make money, you have to buy a share at cheap price. I do not understand why you can not accept this notion. Maybe you are not trying to make money from buying low. I believe you are just trying to profit from selling out high. Well, everybody is waiting to sell out. Even my uncles had shares that he purchased years ago for RM2.50 per share is now willing to sell out if the price goes to RM7.50. My prediction is you are trying to get people to buy shares so that you can sell out. Am I right?

Posted by DANIELSKS > 2014-08-11 11:45 | Report Abuse

Johnny Cash was merely sharing a UOB Kay Hian report. RHB had a more recent write-up which gave it a fair value of RM8.57. HLI holder will get 1.08 Narra share which is currently worth RM4.70 post consolidation (based on today's price of RM2.35). You can still expect a 25 cent DPS for FY 2014 from HLI. So do the maths.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-08-11 11:55 | Report Abuse

If it has a fair value of RM8.57 its current market share price would already have become RM8.57. The problem with the RHB report is : it is prepared by professional people. The RHB's report only tell investors that the value of HLID will be accredative or accumulative. They failed to mention when the value of HLID will accumulate from how much and for how long so that the ocmpany's value can reach RM8.57. They are professional people, you see what I mean, they tell you some day the value will be RM8.57 by accumulation over time! Yu think shareholders are idots or what!

Posted by DANIELSKS > 2014-08-11 12:12 | Report Abuse

The fair value is derived from their analysis of the proposed corporate exercise which is coming to fruition. The ex-date for Narra's capital reduction and consolidation is tomorrow. The distribution of dividend-in-specie of Narra share is expected in September. If Narra price can be maintained at the present level, HLI holder's nett cost will be around RM2.30 (based on Narra's price of RM4.70). If the devidend is maintained at 25 cents would HLI price remains at RM7 after the ex date is announced?

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-08-11 12:56 | Report Abuse

I still have two questions:
(1) For Narra, you keep saying that market price of RM2.30 is the company's fair value. Do you know that Narra currently has a net tangible asset value (ntav) of 38 cents. After the capital reduction, the ntav = 38 cents *2 = 76 cents. I am the kind of person who doesn't like to pay RM2.30 per share for a company that only has a book value or accounting value of 78 cents per share.

The risk is just too high. That is why Benjamin Graham said investors should not buy a share when its market price > ntav by more than 50%. Narra share price become RM2.30 just because it is going to have a corporate exercise. Do you know that 2 or 3 years ago, Narra's share was only trading at 35 cents per share and even at that low price I had a hard time selling out my pre-bought shares?

(2) You are inflating the dividend payout too. They already paid out 15 cents on May 2014, the remaining dividends payout will only be 10 cents remaining (25 cents -15 cents).

(3) After the corporate exercise, ntav for HLIB will be lower than its current value of 4.11. I expect this value to fall around 4.11 - 1.08 =RM3.06/= per share. It is hard for me to accept the fact that a manufacturing company with ntav of RM3.06 per share and people willing to pay RM7/= per share for it.

It its also hard for me to except the fact that people would pay RM7/= for something that has a book value of around RM3/= and as for the dividends payout 25 cens/RM7*100=3.57%. The dividend payout is only 3.57 % at 25 cents per year. So, what is the big deal. A share that only has a dividend payout ratio of only 3.57% must surely sell for RM7/=. What kind of language are you saying???Do you know yourself? Let me know, are you Indian or Chinese?

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-08-11 13:27 | Report Abuse

Narra's net tangible asset value per share right now is only 38 cents per share and people are willing to pay RM 2.35 per share for it. So after the corporate exercise, its net asset value per share doubles to 76 cents per shares due to capital reductions (half the amount of shares are deleted or consolidated). My question is can we expect people willing to pay RM 4.70 per share for a share that only has a book value of 76 cents? Why do people want to pay such a premium price of RM4.70 for something that only carries a book value of 76 cents? Could somebody please tell me?

But I want to remind people, don't be the last guy to enter the market or purchase shares, the early birds catches the worms but the late guy gets nothing. I believe this to be always true according to nature's manifestations.

Posted by DANIELSKS > 2014-08-11 13:52 | Report Abuse

Firstly, point me to where I "keep saying that Narra's market price of RM2.30 is the company's fair value". Narra's price is traded at RM2.35 this morning and irrespective of the NTAV, this fact cannot be denied. I merely observed that HLI's holder nett cost would be RM2.30 based on the current Narra's price of RM2.35 (RM7.00 - RM4.70). And neither am I inflating the divident payout. I stated that the DPS is expected to be 25 cents for FY2014. So please don't say something that's not so. And does it matter whether a commenter is Indian or Chinese? Would race have a bearing on the comments?

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-08-11 14:03 | Report Abuse

Your analysis: " If Narra price can be maintained at the present level, HLI holder's nett cost will be around RM2.30 (based on Narra's price of RM4.70). If the devidend is maintained at 25 cents would HLI price remains at RM7 after the ex date is announced? "

What can I say besides the fact that I like my analysis better than your analysis. At least, I tell people to avoid risks.

Your analysis to me is If......If......If........, this is like saying that if a dog is a cat, than a cat can marry a dog. Everything is Ifs, ifs, ifs, all the good for nothing ifs. If you want to come to forum talk please use more constructive gesture. If you want to sell shares, go somewhere else. I like this website because I think sometimes it is also educational and a place for people to share good informations.

Don't want your ifs, if , if , if, all you can say is if. Is that all only know?

Posted by garfield282004 > 2014-08-11 14:15 | Report Abuse

Hi Lim, sometime NTA or fair value is not totally true to represent a stock value. If this is the case, to value a stock it can be combine with other facts. Your uncle decision to sell off at RM7.50 it doesn't mean the share only value 7.50; it might because of he feel the stock might reach it peak and will not have big growth. He might have another better option on his investment. Sometime 1 analysis format cannot apply to all business. There are too many facts in market which will affect the business sector. And it hard to foreseen. There's no right or wrong to invest in a company or stock. All people view differently, just happy on what you invest in. Good luck.

Posted by DANIELSKS > 2014-08-11 14:23 | Report Abuse

I am not prescient like you, so I am unsure if Narra's price can be maintained at the present level, so I used "If....". So you are indirectly conceding that your assertion that I "keep saying Narra's market price of RM2.30 is the company's fair value" is wrong, right? Cos I did not comment on Narra's fair value. Try to be civil when engaging in exchanges in a public forum. I am merely putting out the facts and if your have a contrary view that's fine. Did I ever urged you to buy this counter? You don't need to get all worked up and get personal. And it's not very becoming to tell someone to go away just because they don't share similar views with you. Unless you own the thread, then you can have your own echo chamber.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-08-11 14:40 | Report Abuse

I am not against people who said everything using ifs in front so that they can go back on their words later on. It is just that I felt they are wasting my time and their own time. Very confusing to me. They come to the forum to say whatever they want to by placing a if in front of everything they said. Their teacher must have to taught them to do this. Be educational. Use facts, use information, can you do that or not!

Garfield, you hv a point there, everyone should do what they wish to when it comes to investing. Since this is about sharing, I will share with you my personal opinion, this is nothing personal. In my opinion, there are a lot of ways to do something: (1) Sometimes we use PE ratio or sometimes we use NTAV or sometimes other methods. It all depends on which method works best. (2) The best method is the safest method. As investors we should adopt the safest or most conservative method. As the US Guru (Warren) said the only way to make money is to avoid risk.

Nice talking to you all!

Posted by DANIELSKS > 2014-08-11 15:09 | Report Abuse

One use "if" cos they can't predict the future and can only make assumptions. I can't know whether Narra's price will go up or down so I have to use "if Narra price can be maintained..." to make a connection to HLI nett cost. So I don't understand what's your beef with me using a standard English word. If it stays at RM2.35, HLI nett cost would be RM2.30 and if it drops to RM2.00, HLI nett would be RM3.00 and so forth. So what words is there to go back on? I am bemused.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-08-11 15:18 | Report Abuse

This forum put out useful investment articles that I have found useful and myself benefited from reading those articles. My advise to you is to read these forum reqularly to gain more knowledge on investing. You still don't know you problem? Ha! After so long. You know what you sound like? You sound like an English teacher, arguing with people over what you said or what you didn't said. The point is everything you said is just Good English but they are in my opinion not financial insights and certainly not sound financial practices. The cause I believe is you still lack sound financial knowledge. That is why it appears to me that you regularly writes in Good English but you do not speak Good Financial Skills. Are you English teacher? If you want to because a Financial or good investor, please use the forum diligently. If you don't know financial skills, please learn it first!

Posted by DANIELSKS > 2014-08-11 15:31 | Report Abuse

Look, I have no interest in starting an altercation with you. I am here to make some money from what I believe to be a good counter. Forgive me if I give more credence to the write up by financial analysts from UOB and RHB than your interpretation. We should know the outcome by next month. Meanwhile happy investing.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-08-11 15:46 | Report Abuse

Actually, I have bought quite a few HLIB shares that I want to sell out if prices were to shoot up! Thank you for your concern, good luck to you also, after all we are here to make money, but just becareful, don't let the sharks have a chance to put you in their stomacks!

Posted by Cowboy > 2014-08-11 17:28 | Report Abuse

Danie, leave those big mouths behind.
Afterall "MM is MM; YM is YM". Just do what u feel right.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-08-15 09:28 | Report Abuse

The only way to become successful in life is to focus on doing a few things you do really well. HLIB will be more focus on the consumer segment: the motocycles and ceramic tiles. While Narra on industrial products, namely concrete products and cement. I like this company strategy and believe that it will bring more values to shareholders. The is a strategy that enable each company to increase profitability and thus paying higher dividends in the long. Now, each of the company is more focus on doing what they do really well and also using resources more efficiently. They always have very good management with good thinking at the HLIB.

Posted by jasonwong89 > 2014-08-15 14:50 | Report Abuse

Going north?

Posted by NKBlog > 2014-08-18 12:09 | Report Abuse

Hope that it will be further north!!

Posted by hevea > 2014-08-18 15:01 | Report Abuse

buy one free one

Posted by passerby > 2014-08-18 16:24 | Report Abuse

refrain further from going into HLIND-CA, if you really think on the potential on HLIND, please focus on HLIND instead...

the proposed issued volume for HLIND-CA = 100mil units, today transacted volume alone was close to 60mil units...the issuer have lost the control of market making, it will be very heavy moving forward for HLIND-CA....unless HLIND move favorable in a significant magnitude.

my rule of thumb - never buy SW on the first day of listing.....most of the time you will end up paying heavy premium. It happened so many times & it is still happening

Posted by hevea > 2014-08-18 16:25 | Report Abuse

well said

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-18 19:03 | Report Abuse

tomolo up with tp8, chart look good...

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-18 19:05 | Report Abuse

hlind-ca can touch tp0.25 within few days, let see@!@

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-18 19:19 | Report Abuse

so, no hope?

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-18 19:27 | Report Abuse

mother go, bring son up......

Posted by passerby > 2014-08-18 19:53 | Report Abuse

If you are not familiar, avoid at all cost.....

A healthy leverage play always have the volume transacted for mother share higher compare to the SW/WA....coz the equation always when the mother move, the son will follow.

When you see the scene where SW/WA volume >> mother share volumes, it becomes very unhealthy....you would not like to get engage in this kind of scenario.

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-18 19:57 | Report Abuse

ca will drop tomolo?

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-08-19 08:34 | Report Abuse

What comment do you need? Avoid all speculative counters especially those that have a very powerful advertising campaign out to get people to buy shares. Why do you think Kenanga so eager to issue the call-warrants now if they expect prices to go up to more than RM7.20 the conversion price? This is the ghost month and there are a lot of ghosts, please don't believe in ghosts who said things that do not exist!

Posted by passerby > 2014-08-19 10:53 | Report Abuse

don't ever think of "I'm getting it cheaper now".....you be dead before you ever realized it....

If you were to lose this battle, so be it !

but make sure you don't lose the lesson from the battle....

Posted by rapidbeginner > 2014-08-19 11:27 | Report Abuse

CA high selling volume.....

Posted by passerby > 2014-08-19 11:30 | Report Abuse

anyone got any strong catalyst or thematic theme for this counter? please share now !!!

else all these idiots here will be drained to death in another 2 more days by Kenanga....today T+1 only idiots!

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2014-08-19 13:09 | Report Abuse

We idiots also know that the mother share pays dividends and enjoy all the other rights but the CA's are useless. For example, CA holders do not get a share of Narra after the company's restructuring scheme. By selling CA now, the security firm is profiting at the expense of ignorance buyers. I don't know why the security firm is doing such a thing, it it a bad move, because this could be a drawback against its reputation. Ha!Ha!Ha!

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-19 14:06 | Report Abuse

contra player will go longkang immediately!

Posted by passerby > 2014-08-19 14:23 | Report Abuse

hahaha, good try Kian :)...but I it doubt it gonna help....haiz, now all the hard earn money & saving belongs to Kenanga now...

the distortion of the price movement created.....mother move but son cannot move, witness it yourself.....always remember & never forget.....

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-19 18:00 | Report Abuse

kibb is a big cruel shark! eat all small fish~mammm...

Posted by jasonwong89 > 2014-08-19 21:33 | Report Abuse

what happen to mother share? Why keep go up & come down.

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-20 07:58 | Report Abuse

keep long term can get good profit. trust hlind!!!

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-20 08:00 | Report Abuse

huat arh!!!

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-20 11:05 | Report Abuse

ca already stable, contra player in longkang already...next up!

Posted by rc15 > 2014-08-20 11:21 | Report Abuse

Now worth to buy HLIND or not?

Posted by DANIELSKS > 2014-08-20 11:27 | Report Abuse

Buy and wait for the announcement.

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-20 11:39 | Report Abuse

also buy some ca...

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-20 14:47 | Report Abuse

something will happen soon in hlind-ca...wait & see...

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-20 16:30 | Report Abuse

its time to buy high dividend counter, buy hlind............

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-20 17:11 | Report Abuse

just buy hlind...

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-20 17:13 | Report Abuse

so many malaysian use motorbike! its a mat rembike company vroooommmm....

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-20 18:00 | Report Abuse

1 day 5 sen, 10 days 50 sen, very good profit!!!

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-21 07:57 | Report Abuse

buy hlind for good future!

Posted by michealc > 2014-08-21 09:24 | Report Abuse

vrooommmm.....