I just got in this stock average @1.59, coz now I am betting on defensive and consumer stocks. I think this stock has good fundamentals and the recent low quarter reflects the management are probably upgrading their inventories and increasing their plant capacity especially in Vietnam. I am looking towards a few good quarters and a rise of RM 2.20 from my fair value at 1.77
KC Loh, You are right ! I'm get it on 1.50 and will hold until 2.50 refer to the history record. Probably might hold another 6 to 8 month later. So Good Lucky to us.(^;^).
Euscilyn, good for you mate! I tried accumulating when it was 1.49 but I went up and up that my purchase price to my broker didn't meet. Didn't help when I had no live feed with me. Finally settled for 1.59 urghh...
Anyway, I like the position of this strong and am banking that the management knows what they are doing despite the squeezed margin and high cost of the operations for now. Their y-o-y revenue is doing well, and as most bros have noticed, under Robert Kuok's stable which has been good to their shareholders.
KL Foong : your are right. KC Loh you may refer to annual report or website. Anyway this is a good counter. I had brought it few month ago at 1.50. For your information PBB group is under Robert Kuok but very high rate ard rm13+/-
Thanks KL Foong. I am looking at fundamentals only. Sure looks like the management is good and my initial assumption was Kuok's counter because the management style seems to know what to do during down times and utilize money well for expansion. Kuok, a brilliant old hand in investment himself, would have been proud!
Now checking Federal Flour hehe. I love this forum!
Euscilyn, agree with you. This is a good counter. Before it split/bonus/rights, it stood at RM 3.00 and paying a dividend of at least 10 %. I m also keeping and hope to reach your TP (2.50).
datuk : you better don't kacau at here. you already black listed at sozo counter. If you want to discuss pls give some usefully comment. KC Loh & KL foong pls ignore datuk comment if not he will jst simply writing nonsense at here.
Mflour position, looks like a stumble in earnings last quarter like i mentioned. I am betting that the earning will improve and this is a momentary blip especially during weak harvest due to El Nino. buying on weakness?
please note i hold position in this stock. you are advised to use your own discretion
the reason is not that not trying to tell you, but you will have more questions thereafter (i know, i tried it with my TA friends until they gave up on me! :) )
it basically a reading of the technicalities of the chart/counter and draw on tested patterns to predict an outcome of the movement. Its great for short term analysis IMO.
good point euscilyn. with Ramadhan around the corner, earnings should be back in place. Well, at least i am betting on that. I hope the improvement on the vietnamese plant will move faster for economy of scales. Wilmar's report has stated that Vietnam regulators are easy to deal with and also approval rates fast. Federal Flour (Indonesia, Vietnam) and Mflour (Vietnam) seems to be reading each other's move. I like that! :)
Tiewyong : I'm not wise reading technical chart. But as a suggestion you must read the history rate & company performance. Study the prospect of the counter you wanted to invest. Consider the short or long investment counter you might interested. How high of the risk you could bear on it of cause how much extra money can be invest. This few point is very important because it may influence your personal emotion when the market is facing bearish.
KC Loh : Vietnam is very new develop country. I'm being Ho Chi Ming before and realize that this city is very crowded a lots of restaurant. Food & coffee stall everywhere. Their main foods is rice, products from rice and flours as well. So with good management & wise market strategy hopefully succeed in the future.
yes Euscilyn. I had some privy to MFlour's vietnam's intended operation by their investment people. I like the sound of that, hence a big portion of my capital is diverted that. To think i sold Affin for that! :(
The logic is as you have mentioned above. Flour is staple in Asia, it should not go wrong. Currently, their output could not match the demand, hence they are building infrastructure. This has cost them, and i think this is reflected in their past quarter earnings. They lost a lot to PPB, but still maintaining their price to hold on to loyalty. Hence, with Vietnam humming to speed and without political baggage, i see economy of scale as the way to go, as MFlour has rightly deployed!
Buy for medium to long term, I think Mflour should be good. Good exposure for share holders to be exposed in the kind of industry Mflour shares offer us fellow investors.
Datuk: "Solid investor like Robert Kuok pun kena scam transmile juga.....sama sama saja" Datuk you are so naive and do not know what you are writing. You do not know what is happening at the higher level(politics do plays)and the mastermind behind all these. Also you are also indirectly refer to POS MALAYSIA whom have a very hugh block of shares also write down their investments to ZERRO VaLUE. If you are smart, just analysis why BRAHIM(last 2 days news) was awarded a licence to buy "...." from Thailand.
i think investors are waiting on the sideline to see if they are bleeding internally (through low yield / earnings). The last quarter is a first quarterly loss. I foresee other investors (especially TAs) will only come in once we can see a reversal of the earnings to positive territory.
I am going by simple logic only. If they are building mill in Vietnam using their own internal generated cash, which reflected in their NTA, then i would not want to worry too much for the next two earnings at least. If you are a punter, then i wont know your timeline to take profit. but i certainly don't see it coming until the next announcement scheduled at 23 August. Also, their payment of special dividend last round indicates to me their confidence, strong financial footing and telling investors "hey, stay with us for more goodies!" :)
I am not tell you to buy or sell. I am just going by my logic why i think the last price blip is quantifiable and not a panic button to sell!
Bro Joseph hii I am sort of agreed with you. Invest long run and make our money grow....build our retirement plan. * Remember we need to grow our money to beat off inflation. If prices of goods goes up...so does it reflect on stocks especially the good ones. And Mflour biz is something that I wanted to be exposed in.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Oscar Khoo
8 posts
Posted by Oscar Khoo > 2012-06-11 23:51 | Report Abuse
Carlsberg is doing very well. Both Mflour and Carlsberg use the same raw material. Anything wrong with MFlour operation?