Sarawak upstream plantation players are not able to fetch higher planted/hectare as most of the palm oil trees are planted in peat soils land. However, few companies (BldPlnt, BPlant, Cepat & MHC ) traded between MYR 23k to 28k/planted hectare mainly attributed to high portion of the old trees in the plantation portfolio.
Perhaps we should inculcate not to have personal attack unless the one happy to be attacked one day. No need to compare wealth or best of the best. At the end of day, we cannot bring anything when buried. Be kind to others. Don't say or type anything if wanted to have personal attack. Collect good karma. No matter how wealth the one, or how clever, still will go through sickness, and die eventually. Good karma let one to have less painful when sick, less torture before die. If you believe in karma, then you know what to do. If you do not believe in karma, you may continue what you love to do.
Perhaps we should inculcate not to have personal attack unless the one happy to be attacked one day. No need to compare wealth or best of the best. At the end of day, we cannot bring anything when buried. Be kind to others. Don't say or type anything if wanted to have personal attack. Collect good karma. No matter how wealth the one, or how clever, still will go through sickness, and die eventually. Good karma let one to have less painful when sick, less torture before die. If you believe in karma, then you know what to do. If you do not believe in karma, you may continue what you love to do.
Some bigger size reputable plantation companies cannot help of seeing their share prices from falling. GenP is a good example as 30% of its mature trees more than 21 years old as at year 2021. SOP is another one has entered old trees cycle since 3 years ago. More will be seen in the next 3 years. Many companies are unable to do replanting for past 6 years due to the sliding of CPO prices (2017 - 2019). 3 years Covid period had caused shortage of labour to do harvesting an replanting exercise was entirely out of question.
Plantation giants are too facing the similar problem of high proportion past prime trees in their portfolio due to delay in replanting programs ie FGV, KLK, IOICorp & SimePlnt. Old trees have exceeded 30% of their mature areas. Some even opt to drop disclosing age profile of the trees in the AR last year.
Few overseas oil palm upstream big players are encountering high rate of old trees. It may cause supply disruption in the next 3 years as the trees getting older at the faster pace and immature areas unable to catch up the shortfall.
As at Dec 2022 Golden Agri - Mature Area 497,353 hectare ( old trees 179,047 or 36% of mature trees ) Immature area 39,788 hec First Resource - Mature Area 195,575 hectare ( old trees 52,205 or 27% of mature trees) Immature area 15,834 hec Wilmar - Mature Area 213,729 hectare ( old trees 37.738 or 18% of mature trees) Immature area 17,968 hec
As at Dec 2021 or 2022 FGV (Year 2021)- Mature Area 279,141 hectare ( old trees 97,531 or 35% of mature trees ) Immature area 56,660 hec IOICorp (Year 2022) - Mature Area 143,787 hectare ( old trees 54,310 or 28% of mature trees) Immature area 31,505 hec KLK (Year 2022) - Mature Area 253,870 hectare ( old trees 72,782 or 29% of mature trees) Immature area 35,780 SimePlnt (Year 2020) - Mature Area 490,005 hectare ( old trees 156,802 or 32% of mature trees) Immature area 93,334 hec
QE has resumed following short life QT of 10 months. Fed implemented QT from May 2022 until Feb 2023 and US 630 billion had been withdrawn from the market. In mere 1 week, an indirect QE US 308 billion was pumped into the market. "the Fed sharply increased its lending to banks—to the tune of $308 billion, up by $303 billion from the prior week. Only $12 billion of that was through the emergency Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), while $153 billion was through the traditional discount window and $143 billion was tied to Silicon Valley Bank and Signature. "
Investing in Jtiasa now, is like planting a Palm Oil tree...... just wait until it matures and it fruits...... then u harvest $$$ Plants dont grow overnight, so need sabar
Malaysia planted area was at the peak of 5.9 million hectare in year 2019. The planted area is getting smaller year by year and dropped until 5.67 in year 2022 or the planted area has contracted by 3.8%. It could be due to replanting exercise is being carried out at slow pace.
Average age profile of Malaysia palm old trees is deteriorating as more than 2 million hectare of the trees over 22 years old. Replanting costs is between MYR 20k to MYR 30k per hectare.
Risks is inevitable in investing and therefore, what we can do is to minimize it through more understand the company itself, comparison within its peers, the development of the industry and the macro environment especially QE/QT and how Fed lead the direction of Interest rates. It doesn't mean i would ignore entirely CPO prices and the story might be different when CPO prices were hovering between 5k to 6k.
Fed rate hike is peaking and max would be adding another 0.25% in the next meeting. No matter how, pausing rate hike and starts cutting interest rate are the only way out to safe the economy. QE will be the only possible way to save banks.
Today u plant a tree from seed, u expect it to fruit tomorrow meh? Of course not! Likewise your investment in Jtiasa will require some time to fruit and harvest
What if CPO price drop to RM 3k level? I am merely a small potato but i would keep playing squeezing game with the Mr. Market. The next stop would be 62 cents and follow by 57 cents and go for the extreme 47 cents. See who would suffer more paper loss in the end. lolz
According to the trend of monthly FFB production for last 10 years, this year 2023 Jtiasa FFB production would be increased by 15% to 20% in comparison with year 2022.
Before you buy Jtiasa, you should think about what game you want to play with Mr Market. If not, Mr Market would squeeze you kaw kaw! As for me, I have allocated a team of kamikaze trops to fight with them.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
speakup
27,014 posts
Posted by speakup > 2023-03-16 22:29 | Report Abuse
already join Calvin in jtiasa