The negative comment on Mr OTB is rather unfortunate, the writer obviously doesn't know what he is talking about. I have been Mr OTB's subscriber & am very happy to say that he is very professional, he made his call based on proper research. I am happy to be his long term subscriber.
A bit concern on SHARE price vs REVENUE 2013 = RM0.310 (as at 25 Jun 2013) 2014 = RM0.340 (as at 25 Jun 2014) 2015 = RM0.270 (as at 25 Jun 2015) 2016 = RM0.255 (as at 25 Jun 2016) 2017 = RM????? (as at 25 Jun 2017)
Just open your eyes, you can see an oversupply of unsold properties in every town and city. Some property companies may show profit now which is from property sales concluded previous years . It will be difficult for property companies to sell properties in this or next.
Just open your eyes you can see AYS' website that the company is selling building materials to property developers. The accounts looks good because it recovered a lot of delayed payment.
Buying shares based on TA & FA can mislead investors if they do not have some business sense or do not care to look at what kind of business the company is doing.
Buying AYS is like buying any of the property developing companies.
You must go to Koon Yew Yin's blog to see his latest article TA & Fa can mislead investors.
KYY has nothing to gain if you buy AYS. Don't be so foolish to buy AYS.
All investors must read his latest article posted on his blog in i3investor.com " TA & FA can mislead investors ". It is about buying AYS and Choo Bee or not. They are selling building materials to property developers. There is already an oversupply of unsold properties in every town and city which will affect the sales of AYS and Choo Bee.
A few property companies are still showing good profit but the profit is from property sale concluded in previous years.
For the same reason, AYS and Choo Bee also are showing good profit. Moreover, they recovered some bad debts.
Their latest account shows good profit which has attracted many investors to rush in to buy and pushes up the share price. As a result, FA & TA expert, like famous OTB who does not care about the company's business, strongly recommend AYS and Choo.
Before I posted my article, I sent it to OTB and asked him to withdraw his buy recommendation of AYS and Choo. If you look at his latest list of recommendation his target price for AYS is Rm 1.13, increase of 109% and for Choo Bee his target price is Rm 5.30, an increase of 143%.
You must bear in mind that I am not selling you anything. I have nothing to gain by writing this comment. I just want to prevent investors from losing money.
Buying AYS and Choo Bee is like buying shares of property companies.
AYS achieved the max EPS of 2.82 cents in Q1 2016. Since then its EPS had halved and had ranged fom 1.38 to 1.68 cents since Q1 2016.
Its Revenue had declined from RM 146 million in Q4 2015 to RM 127.49 million for latest quarter.
From TA perspective its share price is toppish.Its previous high of 0.59 cents was achieved on July 16 2012...almost 5 years ago.
As such, one ought to ask a few pertinent questions as follows - What is the growth prospect of the industry that AYS is in? - What is the chance of AYS achieving higher EPS in the future given that its eps had almost halved since Q1 2016 - What will be the future driver/drivers for higher EPS in the future
Please find attached the comment taken from the latest quarterly report.
16. PROSPECTS
The steel industry remains challenged by volatility of crude oil and raw material prices, oversupply in global steel industry that lead to volatility of international steel price and instability of the Ringgit against major world currencies. Despite the widespread unfavourable situations, the domestic requirement for steel related materials would be driven primarily by various revitalisation measures through the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP). Against this backdrop, the Group will continue to exercise caution in managing the businesses, focus on its cost management and resource optimization efforts so that the Group's performance will remain positive in the coming financial year.
Posted by Shiak Chai Chai > May 25, 2017 09:44 PM | Report Abuse
The negative comment on Mr OTB is rather unfortunate, the writer obviously doesn't know what he is talking about. I have been Mr OTB's subscriber & am very happy to say that he is very professional, he made his call based on proper research. I am happy to be his long term subscriber.
Ans : I cannot disappoint my subscribers, I will ensure I do a good job in proper research.
The results speaks...otb's return is ard 50%+ todate while oldman is stucked in jaks at rm1.30+ promoting jaks every now n then hoping somebody to buy at rm1.50+ to rm1.60+
Posted by stockmanmy > May 30, 2017 11:27 AM | Report Abuse
and buying AYS at the top....where is the growth going to come from?
Ans : He is blind and does not talk with facts and figures. Definitely he did not do his homework. Disappointed with his bad remarks. He is a born loser and keep on bullshit in I3.
But I think my EPF return will be higher than AYS return....that is my home work.
For investors to make money in the stock market , we have to look for stocks with unique selling propositions....USPs, Our funds are limited.....we cannot just buy any cow dung that reports a good set of figures.
remisiers and promoters of stocks are different...it is their job to promote stocks.
Shares like Choo Bee and AYS are cyclical, very cyclical, no proper trend and any way, property market is soft. Companies like Choo Bee and AYS do not have a growth mentality, not even a turnaround situation, no unique selling propositions. ...and no compelling reason to expect extraordinary growth from the company....that is just not in their genes. These are companies year in year out, just making enough money to survive is their goal in life.
For investors to make money, we need to be more selective that just passing OTB tests. We need shares with USPs. We need shares with good competitive edge. We need Directors and owners who are ambitous...
1.False Breakouts False breakouts occur when price moves beyond the previously established price resistance , but then retreats back to within the previous price range.
2.Corrections to Breakout Point Half of breakouts that occur retrace back to the breakout point or below
Time will tell who is right and who is wrong. If AYS price can go higher in the next couple of years then most of the property shares will also go higher. Buying AYS is just like buying property shares. Please use your common sense.
I am not degrading Ooi Teik Bee. I trust him so much that he is managing one of my port folios worth Rm 15 million. Probably my account with him is the largest.
My intention is to prevent people from losing money. I do not have AYS and Choo Bee shares. I have nothing to gain if you buy them or not.
You must remember, I have more 60 years experience in doing business. In fact, about 50 years ago, my company Mudajaya and Ipoh GardenI Bhd formed Ipmuda Bhd which was dealing in building materials. The reason we founded Ipmuda was that Mudajaya and IGB were buying a lot of building materials and Ipmuda could get supply from manufacturers at much cheaper prices.
Eventually we sold the listed Ipmuda for more than Rm 100 million. At that time, even the shell of a listed company was worth a lot of money because many would want to buy listed companies to inject their revalued assets to take advantage of the hot market.
My track record of becoming the 2nd largest share holders of each of the companies such as Latititude, VS Industries and Lii Hen speak louder than a thousand words. Each of them has gone up a few hundred percent.
Just to shut up all my critics I want to take this opportunity to boast a little bit more. I am a founder of Mudayaja, Gamuda and IJM Corporation Bhd. IJM Corp alone has a market capitalization exceeding Rm 12 billion.
In last five years, the highest 70 and the lowest 24. Now trading at 30. That means downside risk 20% and potential upside 133%. The safest stock in Bursa.
AYS's recent past quarterly earnings are impressive. It shows a nice increasing trend. That is why this AYS is recommended by some sifus.
Its present plant capacity and utilisation is not known. There is no news of acquisition or expansion activities. The surge in profits is solely due to better average selling prices (ASP) for its products. I do not operate a hardware shop nor I have run a mill before. In other words, I'm not the industry player. Because of this, I would not know how long the better ASP can last. For this reason, I will also avoid this stock.
Putting your money into the unknown is as good as gambling. I hope nobody is offended. This is just my opinion.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
UMA
692 posts
Posted by UMA > 2017-05-25 12:36 | Report Abuse
Now is over price!!!!!!