Should we continue to accumulate at 2.10 if we think Protasco can achieve RM2.90 in 2 years time, i.e. 30.6.2016? 38% for 2 years of investment, I think it is good. MIDF gives a conservative target price of RM2.90. I believe, with 2 years horizon, it should worth about RM2.90 to RM3.30, not including any new development that can add in NEW/ADDITIONAL earnings.
With 6 sen and 1 free warrant (for every 10 shares), and another expected dividend by Dec, say another 6 sen, assuming each warrant worth 40sen, or each share get 4sen, total dividend by end of 2014 is 16sen divided by today's price, 210sen, a net yield of 7.6%.
Let's say 2015 and 2016 you get dividend of 20sen, another 9.5%. You only need the share price to go up another 21% to make a total of 28%. So, if the share price goes to RM2.54 in two years time, it is a home run.
In short, RM2.10 it is still great value to it. (Some got it few years back, at 90sen, some at 165sen, some 190sen). So, is 210sen still a bargain? I believe so.
i believe the correct question to ask is, even we do not have any shares before today, is the stocks UNDERVALUE and has a sustainable growth and a reasonable potential gain.
I hv written quite a bit on this stock (@manutdchampion - please read my dashboard). It depends on your target return p.a. If it is within your target, then it is worth adding. The average dividend yield at RM2.10, say each year is 10-12sen, next 3 years, you will get about 15%. How much do you expect in capital gain? Say for 3 years, you expect about 10% p.a., next June 2015, say you get 2.31 and June 2016 you get 2.53 and by June 2017 you get 2.88, your CAGR is average about 15% p.a.
So, do you think it can achieve RM2.88 in 3 years. (MIDF target price of RM2.90 in a year). So, your expectation is very conservative. I personally like to average up, especially more good news that can translate into new earnings. Of course, we need to monitor it if they can achieve what they set out to do regularly.
I did a comparison between Pintaras Jaya vs Protasco (both construction related), both market capitalisation today is RM700m. Average earning p.a. based on last 10 years RM23.8m (Pin) vs RM35.2m (Pro).
Share price comparison from 2009 to 2014 (highest) 1.15 to 6.28 = 5.5x (Pin) and 0.80 to 2.10 = 2.6x (Pro).
Pin shareholders did a lot better than Protasco shareholders since 2009 to 2014 because the share price has went up to about 5.5x vs 2.6x. Dividend yield for both companies, average p.a. based on last 10 years is 6.8%(Pin) vs 7.5% (Pro).
With potential earnings growth for Protasco, lets see if it could catch up with Pintaras in the next few years. Of course, this is not the best comparison (not exact same biz). For Pro to catch up to 5.5x, the share price should touch about RM4.40 per share. If their earnings can goes up to RM120-140m p.a. next 3 to 4 years, I believe it is very possible. At 2.05 today, potential upside is still there.
sosfinance: Pro has twice as many shares outstanding as Pin. Pro has a more generous dividend payout policy and this together with a couple of speculative ventures are underpinning its current share price. The recent investment in a too good to be true oil & gas project and going big in the property at this time may not produce the profits as expected. I am of the view that Pin is much more solid company at their current prices and based on its historical performance is a better one to invest in.
Cannot compare directly. Pintaras is a piling company. Protasco is a construction (+ upcoming O&G) company. Pintaras direct comparison is Econ Pile. Prtasco direct comparison is like Gadang.
At the moment, generally investors are not very optimistic about property market. However, Protasco has advantages, it bought the land (in Bangi) at a very cheap price and fully paid (provide good margin) and the price had moved up due to MRT Line 2 proposal.
It is a long term project i.e. 10-20 years, and the speed of the development is under Protasco's control (another advantage) and they are in construction biz as well, another advantage.
Hence, it is a potential for Protasco, at the moment, analyst give it a value of RM400m (20% discount of RNAV of RM500m). I believe there is still upside as years goes by when the MRT line 2 construction is ongoing.
Plus land in Johor, yet to announce anything (land fully paid) + JV for property development in Cyberjaya.
Catalyst 2
The full potential of the Oil and Gas sector's value is not included in the analyst report. MIDF only gives it a value of RM4.9m. The upside is there, need to review it regularly. Profits is guaranteed, downside is limited.
Catalyst 3
Major road maintenance contract coming up soon, in Borneo and P. Malaysia (up to RM1.7bil). Yet to be included in the projections.
CONCLUSION
All the above improve its intrinsic value over the next few years, while maintaining its road maintenance biz and growing as well. Upside of >50% is possible over next 2-3 years.
At today's price, it is a good bargain. This has not include the free warrant (1:10) and year end another dividend. The MD expect earning growth of 15%. It is a conservative figure, the sale of property in Bangi is great. SOLD OUT!
interesting, RHB expects earnings to improved by 43% in FY2014 or RM69m (2013 earnings is RM48). That is quite impressive. If it continue to grow around 15-20% from 2014, it will reach RM100m by 2016 and the market cap should be at least RM1.2bil.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
undertaker
146 posts
Posted by undertaker > 2014-06-20 12:20 | Report Abuse
Sure can, buy before June 25....