Pity those who lost money,i beli fr 0.95 -1.18,small lost compared to those who bght wks before.We have boarded the wrong ship at the wrong time and port
Looks like there are a few other long-suffering, hardcore Mudajaya fans here to keep me company:-) The next quarter results - maybe we should brace ourselves and just expect not-so-good news. More likely than a miracle...unless if Mudajaya had come into some unexpected revenue.
It's positive updates on that power plant in India that's most important. Been delayed for so many times with various reasons given since a few years ago. Disappointment after disappointment. But I believe it's now very close to operating. Hopefully this will be the catalyst to check Mudajaya's l-o-n-g and painful slide. One or two new contract announcements will definitely add to the interest.
I'm following this every day. Very gloomy right now, but we have seen how things can change. When this counter turns around, I will want to be in.
Darn! Even at the 'cheap' below 0.90 prices, it STILL goes down some more. Looks like we should just watch and do nothing for now. Must see some sort of floor and support first. Too dangerous to try guess the bottom. Better to keep the cash and wait for things to stabilise.
What is reasonably sure is that the results aren't likely to be good. Just a question of limiting whatever losses had occurredin the last quarter. The main reason for the drop - no new contracts. And those India power plants too, of course. But from what I had read, one will be operational by end of 2015. The other two(?) in early 2016. There will be some recurring income from these.
But it's new contracts that are more important. It is so beaten down right now...just a bit of good news would help create interest again.
I can't stand it anymore - I think I'm going to buy a few lots. Goes against my strategy of only buying into strength. But this price...
Don't forget the boss, Wee Teck Nam is still sitting in the board and will watch over the leading by James Wong. I have checked the company info of Dataran Sentral, the real big boss is Mr. Wee Teck Nam who sold the 30m shares to fairfax. The Ex CEO, Mr. Anto is holding million of mudajaya shares, he is still an advisor to Mudajaya.
So if you buy Mudajaya, you're buying on the leading of James Wong backed by the advising and watching of the experienced old man and the monitoring of Fairfax. They're all in the same boat with us. Nobody will want Muda die lor...
Got very lucky with this one - buying out of emotions rather than anything else. But ringgit-wise, just a small paper profit because the purchase was small. Interesting development though to see Mudajaya suddenly recover a bit of the losses. Volume isn't big. We'll have to see how it goes next Monday. Would be great if contra players were to turn their attention to this counter.
Depressed by uncertainties Despite Mudajaya's low valuations, we fail to see any silver lining over the months ahead. The depleting order book without more wins YTD only means more downside risks to earnings. This is on top of the further delays in the commissioning of the Indian IPP. We retain our EPS forecasts but flag downside risks to earnings if progress billings substantially weaken in the quarters ahead. We cut our target price as we raise the RNAV discount from 40% to 50% to reflect the deteriorating outlook and lack of catalysts in the medium term. Maintain Reduce. Switch to Gamuda. Weaker job visibility Mudajaya's outstanding order book is running low, estimated to be c.RM600m compared to over RM1bn 12 months ago. YTD, there has been very little news about the RM5bn in total domestic jobs the company has been targeting for. Management concurred with our view that the main reason for this was that the bulk of the tender book comprised of highway and power plant projects, which are being delayed. This ties in with our analysis that progress in these two segments will only be seen sometime in the later part of 2016. The company could still secure other smaller contracts but it may not be able to achieve the targeted RM500m total wins for this year. The depleting order book and risk of further delays in getting new jobs underpin our 9% EPS decline for FY16. Our RM1bn total wins target for FY16 and RM800m assumed for FY17 look untenable. Delayed new associate income The persistent delays in the commissioning of the 26%-owned 1,440MW coal-fired power plant in Chhattisgarh, India, could further delay earnings recovery due to the absence of new associate income. Although a temporary solution to the logistics of transporting coal was achieved, there were indications that the original power purchase agreement (PPA) with the state electricity board could be revised. In our view, there is still the risk that Mudajaya fails to fire up its power within 1H16. Lack of a silver lining At this juncture, we believe Mudajaya's journey towards recovery could take a detour, dragged by a less aggressive strategy to turn around its property division and the longer gestation period required for its smaller IPP ventures in the region to make meaningful contributions to profit.
Releasing its quarter report on 28/8. Likely to be bad, but how bad? One thing about this counter though - all the bad news, pessimism appear to have been baked in. Always possible it'd go lower, of course. But in this condition, any sort of good news may get magnified.
It's like someone in ICU - the guy may still be stuck with tubes and with a deathly pall. But the fact that he now can speak already makes the doctors and family pleased. Everyone now knows about Mudajaya's litany of problems. But let's say it announces something good - a new contract somewhere. Doesn't have to be a huge one. And then another...and one power station is operational... The long slide might be nearing it's end.
Running low on profits Mudajaya reported a 1H15 core net loss vs. our and consensus full-year forecasts of RM30m-50m net profit. This was a negative surprise and likely due to job delays and cost overruns on top of a depleting order book. With no recovery in job flows YTD, its earnings outlook remains weak. This is unlikely to be mitigated by the Indian IPP earnings. While 2H15 could still be supported by the estimated balance order book of c.RM150m, our cuts to FY15-16 EPS forecasts of 35-70% also reflect further delays in new associate earnings from the Indian IPP. Our target price falls as we update for balance sheet items (still 50% RNAV discount). Maintain Reduce, with 2H15 losses and a depleting order book as key de-rating catalysts. Switch to Gamuda. 1H15 slipped into losses The 1H15 core net loss was below expectations, compared to our and consensus full-year net profit forecasts of RM30m-50m. The main deviation was the RM23m operating losses for construction, mainly due to a depleting order book. The sharp 159% drop in 1H15's construction EBIT may also be due to sustained cost overruns and job delays. The absence of dividends was expected. Order book running low Mudajaya's outstanding order book is running low, estimated at c.RM150m currently compared to over RM1bn 12 months ago. The company could still secure other smaller contracts in 2H15 but it may not be able to achieve the targeted RM500m total wins for this year. The persistent delays in the commissioning of the 26%-owned 1,440MW coal-fired power plant in Chhattisgarh, India, could further delay earnings recovery due to the absence of new associate income. Going by indications that the original power purchase agreement (PPA) with the state electricity board could be revised, there is still the risk that Mudajaya fails to fire up its power within 1H16. Lack of a silver lining We believe Mudajaya's road to recovery could be protracted, dragged by a less aggressive strategy to turn around its property and construction divisions and the longer gestation period for its smaller IPP ventures in the region to make meaningful contributions to profit. If order wins do not recover over the next 6-9 months, there is further downside to our assumed total wins targets of RM1bn for FY16 and RM800m for FY17.
Blog: A Good Lesson For Cutting Loss - Koon Yew Yin Aug 31, 2015 10:58 AM | Report Abuse
Suffice to say I am one of those thousand others, if you care to ask around in the streets or during your seminars you will know, who have misplaced our trust on you. Who have just found out from your own mouth that we were just very stupid to have done so.
It is the betrayal of the highest level.
We are not stupid. You are not smart. You have sold your MudaJaya quietly based on insider's information.
People like Jonny has not sold because they are still faithfully holding on to your every words about the Indian power plants; that when they started firing MudaJaya will have a very high recurring income that will be able to supprt the share price at upto 2 to 3 ringgit.
Your words and reasoning are taken as valid as long as the power plants can start operating soon. That is why people have not cut loss but are waiting for the power plants; they trust you.
If you have any conscience at all, do us a favour, go tell the management of MudaJaya to stop misleading the shareholders and be honest on what is really happening in India. So that people can decide whether to cut loss.
What is the meaning of being played out by the Indian partners?
Why was this not announced and made public soonest??
Let's me tell you this, try your best to have a proper closure on that not very scrupulous thing that you have done.
Don't treat others as stupid like the government of the day.
You may have the money but consider yourself a big failure in life if everyday someone somewhere is cursing you because they have placed their trust on you and you knowing let them down.
Leave something that will be appreciated for generations to come. You must have proper closure.
People like Jonny has not sold because they are still faithfully holding on to your every words about the Indian power plants; that when they started firing MudaJaya will have a very high recurring income that will be able to supprt the share price at upto 2 to 3 ringgit.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
kkng0819kk
1,566 posts
Posted by kkng0819kk > 2015-08-15 17:12 | Report Abuse
Pity those who lost money,i beli fr 0.95 -1.18,small lost compared to those who bght wks before.We have boarded the wrong ship at the wrong time and port