How long would it take for GCB to recover from past mistake?!I've been with this counter for years~In fact GCB was the first counter I bought since I venture in Bursa~Was a top performer but now became underdog:-(
1) have basic understanding of financial report. understand DY%, PE (TTM & Forward), ROE, ROA, Profit Margin, EPS, Debt 2) Google frequently about your stocks. learn what others are saying. esp. financial bloggers.
hopefully this will help reduce your losses. cheers.
arv18: agree with your point 1). but with regard to 2) one has to be careful to interpret what some bloggers' posts, as they are either rubbish or calculated to deceive.
hey yk, thanks for the reply. i understand where you're coming from.
its entirely up to each person to determine what is rubbish or otherwise. after a loss, blame is quickly assigned to others for being deceived. but who pushed the buy button? do you blame gillette for making you buy their razor blades after watching their commercial? or Milo for selling you the most sugary diabetes-inducing cocoa drink?
it is mainly their *greed* that blinds them. folks love good news (hype). they think the market is a source of instant riches much like magee mee is a source of instant noodles. can you blame them with stories of Warren B, Geroge Soros et al being streamed 24/7 on Bloomberg & CNBC?
but to understand the market, you have to take the good with the bad to eventually become good at *discerning* the good advice from the bad. and making those mistakes, correcting them is a rite of passage, and the hallmark of any good investor.
the saying that comes to mind - "don't hate the playa, hate the game"
ps there are plenty of other people constantly lying/deceiving - car dealers, politicians, salesmen, real estate agents, renovation guys.... thats is just life....
I do not disagree with your comments. my earlier post is meant to caution those who may be carried away by the many rosy comments too frequently appearing in this and other forums.
hehe,chill~first of all,thanks for the valuable advice :-) I usually read comments from I3Investor before I buy into a counter..But I do notice the discussions has deteriorated over time, in fact not very active nowadays. Anyway,I still like to read the comments from I3Investors for joy and some insight of
Target price of 1.15 is pegged with P/E ratio of 7.5.... This is really very low target.... Typically a normal stock pe is above 10. So I think TP of 1.15 is undervalue
How to give dividend with company BS in red? The question is is this company still have the fundamental support to make the turn around. With MYR in nine years lowest against USD, is GCB able to make the comeback?
got rumors of them getting Hershey as a new client
Don't forget they are the largest cocoa processing plant in Malaysia and their factory in Johor is close to the Hershey plant. This q profit of 21m is starting to reflect their turnaround and I believe next few Qs will even be more impressive as cocoa prices continue to soar because of shortage in Africa.
At peak this had a market cap of close to a billion ringgit. I think many funds will start to meet them soon, suspect will hit RM1.20-1.40 short term.
The recovery lifted by the higher net gain on commodity future contract and lower inventory write down.
Financial Position
As at 30/9/2015, GCB's financial position is fairly tight with current ratio at 1.03 time and gearing ratio at 3.4 times. The high gearing is the result of high borrowings to finance its inventory & trade receivable. Inventory holding period had improved from 160 days in 31/3/2015 to 104 days while debtors' turnover period had deteriorated from 43 to 73 days over the same period.
Valuation
GCB (closed at RM0.85 yesterday) is now trading at a trailing PER of 31 times (based on last 4 qaurters' EPS of 2.75 sen). If GCB can continue to chalk up results similar to QE30/9/2015, its PER would reduce to less than 5 times. This plus its PBR of 1.1 times its NTA (of 80 sen @30/9/2015) means that GCB is probably fairly valued today.
In stocks market the sky is the limit.......and don't be surprised the stocks u are holding can dropped back to 90 % and in fact only those old timer like me have experienced it before ! Just my 2 cents advised and informations........Thnks!!!!
Thxto Rich for your transpage sharing. Wondering why is Gcb cooking their account by now ? They used to be a big crocs to the equity market. Is it going to happening again ? I see unlikely this time, untill we find the sustainable catalyst. Eerrr is this factor that contributed to the earlier SURGE sustainable ???
At the AGM in 16June 2015, the board agreed to look into the possibility of extension of warrant and may consider new issue to replace the expiring one if extension is not allowed by Bursa.
GCB is the world's 3rd largest cocoa processor, with a revenue of RM1.82 billion for 2014. Up to Sept.2015,it has already recorded revenue of RM1.727 billion. So,it will be the first time ever the company hits more than 2 billions in revenue in 2015.(the revenue in 2007 was only RM464 millions).Considering that the market cap of GCB is only about RM560 millions (based on today closing price),the earning potential is huge. The average profit margin for FY 2010 -2012 is around 8.5 %.If the company can achieve this margin for next few years,we would expect EPS of not less than 35sen/share(based on revenue of RM2 billions).GCB is already showing sign of a strong turn around in the 3rd Quarter this year with an EPS of 4.55sen/share as compared to -2.78 sen/share in 2014 and 0.1 sen/share in 2nd Quarter 2015. The profit margin for the 3rd Quarter is only about 3%. Just like the palm oil refining industry in this country,cocoa grinding industry is also subject to the cycle of fluctuation of commodity prices. Let's hope GCB has finally recovered, after 6 quarters in the doldrums with only marginal profits/losses. It would be great turn-around story.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
13132323
112 posts
Posted by 13132323 > 2014-03-03 23:33 | Report Abuse
Die flat ! Force to sell before it go down even further.