hahahahahaha. Told to sold all when it breaches 3.00 but some people thought they are so genius keep buying. Now touching 1.50 and they get hard slap on face. Ouch!!!
Comment: MSC’s share price is technically oversold after plunging all the way from a peak of RM5.44 in the second half of April this year to a recent low of RM1.85 in mid-July, or back to where it was one year ago. Yet, while both the RSI and stochastic indicators are currently hovering at depressed levels, a technical rebound will probably be forthcoming only when these oscillators start to reverse from the oversold position. On the chart, the shares may strive to find a firmer footing initially somewhere above our support thresholds of RM1.65 (S1) and RM1.40 (S2). On the upside, a technical bounce-up could then lift the stock towards our resistance hurdles of RM2.32 (R1) and RM2.56 (R2).
Source: Kenanga Research CORPORATE STRUCTURE
MSC BUSINESS OVERVIEW Started as a smelting plant in Butterworth since 1902, MSC is the world’s largest toll smelter, smelting third party tin concentrates from all over the world. It is replacing its aging reverberation furnaces, upgrading its smelting technology via relocating to a new and modern plant in Pulau Indah. This will increase its smelting capacity to 60,000 MTPA from 40,000 MTPA currently. On the other hand, through RHT which was acquired in Nov 2004, MSC owns the country’s largest open- pit alluvial tin mine, Rahman Hydraulic Tine Mine, located in Pangkalan Hulu, Perak. BUSINESS SEGMENTS MSC business are segmented into upstream tin mining through RHT and downstream smelting plant which is in the midst of migrating from Butterworth plant to new facility in Pulau Indah.
About the stock: Name Bursa Code CAT Code Key Support
Malaysia Smelting Corp Improved Efficiency, Higher Output By Teh Kian Yeong l tehky@kenanga.com.my INVESTMENT MERIT MSC is poised for improved efficiency (via the consolidation of its tin smelting operations) and higher output (by exploiting the eastern boundary of its existing tin mine in Perak, which will be made possible with the acquisition of neighbouring land). We value MSC at RM3.13 based on DCF (WACC: 8.1%; TG: 2%) which implies FY22E PER of 8.6x ADD. Key takeaways from our recent engagement with the company are as follows: 1. Despite the sharp fall from a high of USD48,865/MT in March to USD25,000/MT currently, the spot tin price is still significantly above MSC’s cash cost with levy of USD15,000-16,000/MT; 2. MSC expects to still realise super good tin prices in 2QFY22, despite prices seen to moderate from 3QFY22; 3. MSC is in the midst of consolidating its entire tin smelting operations under the new plant in Pulau Indah. It is in the process of shutting down the older plant in Seberang Prai, by end-2023. In terms of cost savings, the low-lying fruits would be a 30% reduction in headcount (from 600 to 390), coupled with better utilisation rate of the more efficient Pulau Indah plant as well as internally generated solar energy. 4. MSC is getting two bites of a cherry from the recently proposed acquisition of Asas Baiduri which owns a piece of land adjoining the eastern border of MSC’s existing tin mine in Perak. Firstly, MSC could raise its mining output by 67% to 15MT/day in FY23 from 9MT/day currently by exploiting the eastern boundary of its existing tin mine in Perak, which would be made possible with the acquisition of neighbouring land. Secondly, it would be able to expand its tin mining operation to the land to be acquired within the next five years. A record year in FY22. MSC guided for a record year in FY22, backed largely by: (i) super good tin prices realised in 1HFY22; and (ii) additional mining output from the eastern border of its existing tin mine in Perak from 4QFY22 (which will continue to drive mining output growth in FY23). Meanwhile, it guided for reduced profits from tin smelting operations from 3QFY22 as its smelting capacity will be deployed largely for the smelting of third-party tin ores (which commands lower margins) as compared smelting of internal tin intermediates (which commands better margins) during 1HFY22. We project FY22-FY23 net profit estimates of RM152.3m-RM127.3m (vs. RM118.1m actual net profit in FY21) based on 2022/2023 consensus tin price forecasts of USD31,784/USD24,650 per MT. Valuations and recommendation. We value MSC at RM3.13 based on DCF (WACC: 8.1%; TG: 2%) which implies FY22E PER of 8.6x. There is no adjustment to fair value based on ESG (3-star ESG rating as appraised by us). ADD.
The only setback is the raw material the company source from the outsider is using the USD and ringgit is depreciated which setback it refinery margin %.
@hafid.. Tin is sold in us dollar bro.. Ringgit down good for it so the input costs r no big deal.. But like i said if u use ur brains u will never buy. If u use ur bals. U wilk buy at a good price.. :-))))
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ty Y
130 posts
Posted by ty Y > 2022-09-26 09:39 | Report Abuse
So far, this price has been severely undervalued, and UOB Investment Bank has set a target price of $3.07. We have 100% upside.