KLSE (MYR): CDB (6947)
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Last Price
3.37
Today's Change
+0.04 (1.20%)
Day's Change
3.30 - 3.41
Trading Volume
3,306,900
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maradonut
66 posts
Posted by maradonut > 2013-08-27 17:13 | Report Abuse
Buy (maintained)
Target price: RM6.04
ALTHOUGH DiGi's stock price has appreciated 38.6% year-to-date, DiGi remains a key pick for the telco sector moving into 2013.
Our buy rating is premised on DiGi's continued growth story and strong capital management initiatives.
Both factors, in our view, are likely to drive stock price towards our discounted cash flow target price of RM6.04 (based on a weighted-average cost of capital of 6.3% and growth of 1%).
As at the third quarter (Q3) of 2012, DiGi's revenue market share expanded to 28%, up from 27.5% from end 2011 (27% as at end 2010).Growth has largely been driven by its above peer average net adds over the past two years which was also accompanied by a fairly stable, if not, higher average revenue per user (ARPU).
We believe that its growth month-on-month momentum will persist as it consolidates its market share in the youth and Malay ethnic group segments, two key growth areas.
We understand that DiGi's market share in the Malay ethnic market segment remains below average and has recently only hit double digit market share.
On the one hand, while this is extremely low, especially for an established telco player, this also leaves significant scope for growth in the near future. We believe that improving its 3G footprint would be key to driving this growth.
Management targets to accomplish more than 70% population coverage by end of next year (it is about 63% currently) and thus enabling DiGi to offer their services across new markets, and particularly in new areas of coverage.
The roll out of 3G coverage also enhances DiGi's postpaid proposition, which should further aid ARPU enhancement.
With its revenue and growth trajectory intact, we are forecasting core dividend per share (DPS) to improve in financial year (FY) 2013. Although our FY13 DPS assumption is based on a 100% dividend payout, we nevertheless suspect that there is potential for upside to our DPS forecast of 22.6 sen for FY13.
Management has reaffirmed its commitment to optimising shareholder returns which thus leaves upside risk. A potential way of extracting more returns for shareholders is via a business trust structure, an option that management is already evaluating.
Key investment risk includes irrational competition which could potentially lead to higher handset subsidies and lower tariffs.
This could be sparked off by the recent round of lower interconnect rates, although we believe that the incumbents are likely to remain rationale.
The awarded LTE spectrum would also raise the number of players in the market, although being a niche high end product, impact from the smaller players are likely to be less meaningful.