But AllianceDBS actually not wrong though, because Padini's current PE is actually near its highest PE since year 2012... to calculate the intrinsic value:
Take the median PE (highest + lowest PE/2), assuming the full yr 2016 EPS is RM0.20, that would workout the value to be RM2.28 (11.4 x 0.2 = RM2.28)...then add the net cash per share which is approx. RM0.32 per share (Cash on hand - total borrowings/ no. of outstanding shares), hence the intrinsic value should be RM2.60..
There are alot of assumptions here which i might be wrong: 1. I assume the fourth quarter will be doing well that earns PADINI at least EPS of 0.05 which will give the company full year EPS of RM0.20 (come one.. it is impossible to earn more than RM0.05 cents in 3 months time unless there is significant buy back of shares by the company which could reduce the no. of outstanding share and increase the EPS)
2. The median PE is basically based on historical PE and I have use the most optimistic way which is taking the highest and the lowest to find the median rather than average the PE over 10 years.
If u compare PADINI's current PE (15) against its industry peers (16.9)...although, PADINI is still pretty much lower than its industry but it is closer to it.. I do feel PADINI is abit overvalued but because my entry price is below RM2.00 and my Dividend yield is 5%..I don't think its a good time to sell too... thats my opinion.. =)
majority shareholder of this stock is buy and forget. with the current weak economy, it will prolonged to 2017. perhaps 2018 the economy recovers, but hardly. So, these period, ppl tend to buy padini than zara or MNG. Merdaka sales, Deepavali, Christmas, CNY. Unless Padini clothes really cannot see cannot wear.
Just my gut feeling those who sell are those buy recently which I think they are hit and run type. So not too worry. The earlier they cash out the better IMHO. I tend to agree with some say majority of investor in this counter are buy and forget because they believe in long term. I still repeat the same old thing, if the management team still the same old gang then I'm very confidence they will do something to improve the company value, business and profit of course.
Last but not least I'm still excited and waiting for the dividend. Should be release very soon, hope this week. May be due to I have quite some lots and also at quite low average price as I keep invest in this counter whenever I have extra money.
When it drops...it just means the opportunity to buy more has come... its like when you go shopping malls and you see there is big sale going on with more than 50% discounts...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Mgician
716 posts
Posted by Mgician > 2016-08-19 17:07 | Report Abuse
can I have some voucher to buy shirts? ... plz... lol