The 4 biggest gloves stocks in Malaysia have been enjoying double digits growth for the past 20 years before the covid 19 pandemics . The HIV , Sars , H1N1 , Mers , Zika epidemics had spurred growth of gloves with 8 to 10 % growth every year . The covid 19 Pandemic has accelerated the growth of gloves further with expected growth of 25 to 30 % per year during pandemic and 12 to 15 % post pandemic . Nobody know when the pandemic will end but the market had already responded by looking forward the ending of pandemic since end of 2020 despite earnings kept going up for the last few qtrs . Hence , it is more important to look at what will be the earnings of glove makers during post pandemic . With the consensus from Glove makers , Margma and most Ibs , the ASPs of Nitrile gloves will be at US 30 to 35 per 1000 post pandemic . This is 30 to 40 % higher than the prices pre pandemic . With the planned capacity expansions plus the post pandemic ASPs . we can project and estimate the earnings of glove makers at the normalised post pandemic periods . By assuming blended ASP of US 30 , supermx manufacturing can make
30 x 48 x 0.8 x 4.2 x 0.2 = 967 millions
Its Distribution can make 50 % of Manufacturing profit based on last 4 qtrs record . This is
967 x 0.5 = 483 millions
Total profits = 967 + 483 millions = 1.45 billions
This is about one third of estimated FY 2021 profits of about 4 billions .
In terms of EPS , it is 53 sen per share .
During normal pre pandemic period , Supermx had enjoyed a PE of between 15 to 18 . You can obtain the value of supermx by assiging a fair PE which you think fit . While waiting for the post pandemic , the investors can enjoy an extraordinary dividend yield of about 10 % . I welcome any civilised comments .
Yup pjseow, concur with ur calculation. In fact it will not easy for ASP to drop to USD 30-35 level, as most new and smaller players will die a natural death at those prices, as their cost is much higher. So likely the big boys will eventually buy them up cheap. So the contrarian strategy by big funds is that early part of pandemic, push price to peak at RM12 , then middle of pandemic press price to close to pre-pandemic to collect back then almost end of pandemic push up again , then post pandemic settle at ard RM 6-8 base on PE 15 of earnings.
China Partly Closes World's Third Busiest Cargo Port Over COVID-19 Case Authorities in China have suspended operations at a terminal in the world's third busiest cargo port after a worker was infected with the coronavirus. The closure of a key terminal at the Ningbo-Zhoushan port on the east coast, which handled almost 1.2 billion tons in 2020, reflects China's determination to squash its worst coronavirus outbreak in months no matter the economic costs. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Slowly Delta is gonna affect the supply chain in China on export and imports. Likely their glove production and exports will be affected. Similar case for Thailand. So Msia glovemakers will have to work harder to fill the supply gaps.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
MoneyMakers
7,655 posts
Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-08-13 12:36 |
Post removed.Why?