Usd dxy double top going to 108 soon. Vegetable oil is rallying and cpo is going to 5k.
Sifu is correct again. Fed is softening on rate and yellen want buy bond to boost liquidity.
Sifu said
Big fund will be convinced of long term profitability on new range of cpo price above 4k. Plantation new bull trend will commence after retracing from break out on 7 years down trend .
Cautious to tech sector as long term interest will be higher which means tech high valuation high pe will not be seen in next 7 years. Fed will not be able to give ultra low rate to zero again in future as usd will be ditched by many countries as it progresses to lose its major reserve currency st To maintain usd strength long term higher rate in average is expected.
China is plotting a big digital shift to eyuan which will float its renminbi along its belt and road countries,brics and allies based on major payment platform using wechat,alipay etc on a flip of button once it is ready.That will pose a very big challenge and a deathblow to dollar hedgemony.
Expecting Us to duplicate a ukraine war in taiwan in 1 to 3 years. Avoid tech stock it will be a poison to hold in future just like glove in the past 2 years.
As usual from covid to financial crisis to war (nuclear even). Palm oil will be resilient and profitable.
Ukraine war: Russia halts grain deal after 'massive' Black Sea Fleet attack
“If the green corridor is closed big and small farms alike will go bankrupt, everyone understands that," says Viktor Bykov, CEO of Tecom Agro Group Ltd, an agricultural company that leases 26,000 hectares of farmland in and around the Odesa region.
Still, in a war Putin has pitched to the developing world as a struggle against Western domination, he could settle for the disruption caused even with the grain deal in place; ending it would risk turning more nations against him, driving global prices for wheat, sunflower oil and other food staples back to the stratospheric levels seen in May.
@OneOracle If Russia doesn't resume the grain export, food crisis would repeat as it is before end of July 2022. Poorer countries are the hardest hit, wheat and fertilizer prices may start to surge again starting tomorrow.
In the past two weeks, U.S. stocks have told two stories, one is the bull market joy story of the rising valuation of traditional blue-chip stocks led by the Dow; the other is the continuous decline of growth stocks represented by big technology, and the decline is enough to wake up the market veterans about 2000 Memories of the 2019 tech stock crash. The "scissors difference" between blue-chip and technology indicates that when the new cycle starts, everything will be different.
Art Hogan further explained: "Looking back, this market, and the broader economy, is starting to remind me of the 2000-2002 pattern, when extreme tech weakness impacted the major indices, but the performance of more traditional parts of the market and economy was better."
Dan Suzuki said investors should keep in mind that "a bear market always heralds a change in the industry leading the next cycle". That means tech won't be the leader when the next bull market begins.
The monthly chart above shows the five waves advance from 3.1.2008 and the different degrees within the cycle. The idea is overall bullish for the USDX. However, there are two possibilities for the Dollar Index. It can make a significant correction soon and drop hard to correct the whole cycle. Alternatively, it will just correct the cycle since the lows at 02.01.2018 and continue higher.
The $USDX Monthly charts overlay with $XAGUSD (Silver); as we can see, the metal should not be trading below zero and has been holding the lows, while the USDX is close to a peak. Understanding and reading the market makes a huge difference in being on the right side and knowing which instruments to trade.
In Conclusion: 2023 might provide a pullback in the USDX, which means higher $EURUSD, $AUDUSD, $NZDUSD, $GBPUSD, and higher commodities. Commodities should hold stronger against the $USDX, and provide a better buying into 2023.
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Minister of Energy, Resources, and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif shared optimism that the use of 40 percent biodiesel (B40) fuel can be implemented in early 2023. B40 means it contains a 40% blend of palm oil-derived biofuel and 60% diesel.
“B40 is ready to be launched in January, inshallah, depending on the test results. We’re optimistic,” said Arifin on Tuesday, November 1, 2022. He said the road test has been carried out since the end of July 2022 and is targeted to end this month.
Based on the results of current monitoring and evaluation, he continued, B40 is believed to answer energy needs and support efforts to reduce vehicle emissions. From the series of trials carried out, the government hoped that the B100 target can be achieved in the future.
Once b40 launch.no more supply glut in any event of recession, depression or watever in the newr future.Unless indonesia ban export for 2 mths which is unlikely. The target is b100 for indonesia very ambitious. Basically limited palm oil for export in future unless production x 2.
40% blend of palm oil-derived biofuel and 60% diesel. What does this mean? When diesel price is higher than the cost of production of biofuel, possibly Indonesia will limit the exports of palm oil leading to supplies of palm oil available to the market also drop.
Fed keep raise rate. Oil and vegetable oil not dropping and gaining strength.
Smell of stagflation like 70s. Commodity like palm oil is king in stagflation. Fund already positioning for stagflation as they know rate hike in current scenario wont bring down inflation but only worsen it eventually leading to stagflation.
Smell of bond bursting. Usd is going down even a rate hike cannot save.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Mikecyc
46,663 posts
Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-10-25 21:47 |
Post removed.Why?