Update from HLI, short term target price revised to 2.21. 1.80 cut loss. short term uptrend 2.07 due to heavy sold off. Not sure how true Happy trading :)
CT Ong Below is The Star Online News yesterday: New TP price is RM3.13 by HLIB and not any other unfounded or unsubstantiated price stated or otherwise elsewhere. They must always be consistent with what they wrote. HLIB analyst recommend this stock based on facts and figures which is supported by strong fundementals. They are supposed to be credible and reliable with their analysis. If they speak with a forked tongue, then HLI management will flushed them in the toilet bowl and send them to an asylum.
Brahim's outlook remains intact, although MAS' problems may have an impact
by isabelle lai
PETALING JAYA: Inflight caterer-cum-restaurant operator Brahim’s Holdings Bhd’s long-term prospects remain intact even though in the short-term, the problems at Malaysia Airlines (MAS), from which the company derives a majority of its earnings, may have an impact. Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research analyst Grace Chew said in a report that Brahim’s may take an earnings hit of up to 22.5% should MAS embark on restructuring plans and capacity cuts. She said this assumed a 30% cut in passenger capacity, given that Brahim’s derived between 70% and 75% of inflight catering revenue from MAS. However, the silver lining is that should travellers opt for other airlines, which are already existing Brahim’s customers, then the impact on the company’s earnings would be much less than the 22.5%. Brahim’s supplies meals to over 30 other airlines. “Furthermore, we gathered that the share of inflight catering revenue by foreign airlines (non-MAS) is growing at a faster rate due to the higher price per meal charged. The higher price is largely due to the higher quality of food demanded by respective airlines in an effort to remain competitive among other full-fledged carriers. “Thus, we do see potential of the share pie of foreign airlines to continue growing, which would then result in lesser dependency on revenue generated from MAS,” Chew said. She added that if this worst-case scenario of a 22.5% revenue hit occurred, it would reduce HLIB Research’s target price for Brahim’s to RM2.81 from RM3.13, which was still a 42% upside to its closing price of RM1.97 on Monday. Brahim’s share price dropped 5.29% on Monday after being negatively impacted by media reports quoting Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak mentioning that bankruptcy would be one of several restructuring options for the ailing airline. However, a government spokesman on Monday clarified that Najib did not mention bankruptcy specifically as an option, but told the Wall Street Journal that MAS’ status as a public company needed to be taken into consideration. MAS’ shares dipped to a record low of 15 sen in early trade on Monday on heavy volume, while its share price has fallen some 50% year-to-date, with investors concerned about the future of the national carrier following the Government’s strong message that it may be allowed to fail. In its first quarter ended March 31, MAS posted a wider net loss of RM443.9mil on a revenue of RM3.6bil, making it the biggest net loss in over two years and the fifth consecutive quarter of losses. Meanwhile, Chew said in the event MAS ceased operations, which she thinks is unlikely, the 25-year concession agreement with Brahim’s would be terminated. In this respect, Brahim’s would then be paid RM318mil for the termination, as the company had paid RM130mil for the remaining 49% stake in Brahim’s-LSG Sky Chef Holdings Sdn Bhd bought from LSG Asia GmbH in January last year. Chew said earnings would then be impacted for less than a year, since the payment would enable the company to immediately inject assets (Desatera Sdn Bhd and Dewina Food Industries Sdn Bhd) belonging to Datuk Ibrahim Ahmad Badawi, Brahim’s executive chairman and controlling shareholder. “These injections would partially fill in the loss from MAS’ contributions, while the remaining would be from other airlines that could potentially replace MAS’ routes, as well as potential mergers and acquisitions that Brahim’s is currently on the lookout for,” she said. Additionally, Chew said Brahim’s latest collaboration with Makkah-based Dhyafat Albalad Alameen Co Ltd to supply food to the pilgrims would potentially result in a significant earnings boost starting financial year 2016, and would also serve as another layer of “protection” to earnings.
Ct ong ....speculations and rumour mills building up that MAS would cease opeartions by end of tis month .on agood note tis rumour mills are unfounded and lack credibilty as as MAS Would continue to fly and service their customers..as quoted by its CEO in the media..Imperatively all.Inflight meals on alll MAS flights would continue to be provided by Brahimss!
Brahim...i am not guessing...u can compare both company quarterly report...for MAS..u find related party transaction vs brahim revenue. Thats how the 70% derive.
You can refer to the news today by the director from the star:
What about the margin for the air asia X compare with mas? I think the signed with air asia x margin will be much lower compare to mas and it will reduce Brahims profit.
i bought last year christmas at 1.75 and it went all the way up to 2.7, now 1.77 ... almost 1 dollar erase, dont see is profit taking, more like fundamental change.
Dato's stake 40%, Tan Sri Mohd Ibrahim= 30%, Tabung Haji =15%, Felda=5% and KWAP only 3 000 000 These shares are tightly held by the 4 major share holders and i do not see them selling any single share till today. so, who is selling? that's baffling us! It's a few institutional investors disposing and this will only tapered off by the 28/05 so we need to be patience . It's jittery! One man's meat is another man's poison!
Do the Maths and you will see that the major share holders + institutional holders are holding more than a 100% Perplexing right? This clearly tells us that other than the major share holders there is a change in institutional ownership now The top 30 Share holders are holding almost 90% of the shares.
The free floats is only less than 10% Don't worry too much , I nearly gave up 2 years ago when it plummeted a few rounds that caused lots of fear and anxiety.
In the end I reap what I sow.
Hold on to dear life, let the institutional investors sell as they thought it's the end of the road for Brahims. Anyway they don't feel much pain as it's not their money per se.
Believe me, BRAHIMS will be back!
Shares issued: 236.285m
First private placement to Felda: 10,740,250 23/05/2013. Issue price per share RM1.450
Second Private placement to Tabung Haji 28/02/2014 10,740,250 RM2.339
Dato Ibrahim pare down his stake from 117 905 000 to 113 905 000 and then 12/05: 96 005 000= 40.63%
Tan Sri Mohd Ibrahim also pare down his stake from 92 905 000 to 88 905 000 and then 12/05: 71 005 000= 30.05%
# Dato Choo Kah Hoe = 25 000 000 = 10.6% -not sure of the stake by now? in question.
Tabung Haji= 35 201 850= 14.9%
Felda=12 223 850=5.17%
KWAP-retirement fund=3 000 000
Institutional shareholders
Great Eastern Life Assurance Co. Ltd. as of 09 Apr 2013 7.49m 3.17%
Employees Provident Fund as of 09 Apr 2013 3.74m 1.58%
Public Mutual Bhd. as of 09 Apr 2013 2.96m 1.25%
RHB Asset Management Sdn Bhd. as of 30 Jun 2013 2.31m 0.98%
Libra Invest Bhd. as of 31 Dec 2013 2.02m 0.85%
Saham Sabah Bhd. as of 09 Apr 2013 1.78m 0.75%
AmInvestment Management Sdn. Bhd. as of 30 Sep 2013 1.01m 0.43%
Areca Capital Sdn. Bhd. as of 31 Dec 2013 599.50k 0.25%
CIMB-Principal Asset Management Bhd. as of 31 Jan 2014 16.00k 0.01%
A loss of species at the top of the food chain could have far-reaching effects on the environment, according to a study in the Journal Science.
Some of the world’s top predators - including lions, wolves and sharks - are in sharp decline. Human activities like pollution, habitat destruction, overfishing and hunting are largely to blame.
I wonder when will Brah stop bleeding. Bled almost RM0.60 in less than 2months. People always say time to grab, but it keeps dropping. Don't catch a falling knife people. Be careful.
after mh 370, the stock start the downtrend, at 2.4, people said good buy, 2.3, people said good buy, 2.2, still good buy, 2.0, very good buy, 1.7 ??? good buy or good bye ? anyway i do believe in technical rebound.
myself cut at 2.23, bought at 2.6 due to greedy ... erase part of my early year gain but manage earn back from pmetal ...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
RedEagle
3,194 posts
Posted by RedEagle > 2014-05-21 22:16 | Report Abuse
Tomorrow must push.. everybody must q sell 1.98^.. ;)