This deal only benefit OCK for medium and long term Revenue : ~29m/annum PBT : ~4.5m/annum PAT : ~1.5m/annum
This is a small contribution but those intangible benefit quite big 1) This deal make OCK become top competitor among other Independence BTS owner. 2) This deal is a short cut to let OCK direct penetrate vietnam market . Do not "zou kei" any country that is having fast growing mobile subscription beside Myanmar 3) Building good reputation, own brand name so indirectly increase Tenancy ratio ( key to win in this kind of deal). Not talk about build and lease tower. 4) Malaysia market is so so saturated, to keep business running must go outside "jalan jalan" 5) PMT is one of their success story.
my god. pavilion is brilliant to share this news. it mean OCK is doom foever. Sell fast !.. hihihi... as all will keep their distance around 500m so that we no need cell towers in future. hahahaha...
LTE is in hot trend...nowadays you can find more smartphones with LTE function that cost only few hundreds basically everyone can afford.... so telcos want to capitalise this hot trend and aggressively compete to expand their LTE coverage... meaning more business opportunity for OCK in malaysia and indonesia ...?
Good timing for OCK to enter Vietnam market before the LTE trend explode....
The Vietnam telecommunication industry is characterised by a maturing mobile market with growth potential still remaining, however new data and 4G/ LTE is expected to further stimulate demand for capacity. Maturing networks and pressure on operating margins is expected to encourage MNOs to share BTS tower sites. This creates potential for SEATH Group to increase the number of BTS towers such as via built-to-suit opportunities for MNOs, and secure additional tenancies for its BTS towers. Tenancy ratios are the key value driver for a tower company, as additional revenue is expected from extra tenants on each BTS tower, while the associated costs are not expected to increase as much. As such, the profit margins should improve with higher tenancy ratios. This is supported by the positive outlook of the Vietnamese telecommunications industry coupled with the rolling out of 4G services in the near future.
We view this acquisition as positive and earnings accretive over the long-term period, given that SEATH has been profitable over the past three years. The expansion will also bring OCK one step closer to becoming one of the largest telecommunication tower operator in the South East Asia region. Given that the acquisition will only be completed in 3-4 months’ time, we leave our earnings forecast unchanged for now and we maintain BUY recommendation with an unchanged target price of RM1.00.
Effective from 2017, OCK Group will have about 3,000 towers (Myanmar + Vietnam + Malaysia). An addition of 500 towers each year from 2017-2020 for Myanmar. By end of 2020, OCK will have about 5,000 towers. Hence, growth from 2016 to 2020, grow from 1,000 to 5,000 (5x growth in 4 years).
Most analysts were conservative and were using a tenancy ratio of 1.0 time (on Myanmar, excluding Vietnam as no analyst report since the announcement of the Vietnam deal). However, based on management view, Myanmar tenancy ratio can goes up to 1.8x, as mentioned in CLSA report.
With the purchase of Vietnam towers, EV/EBITDA of 8-9x with tenancy of 1.25x and management is of the view that it can improved up to 1.45x in the next few years.
UOB Kay Hian TP of RM1.30 on a sunny-day (3,000 towers + tenancy ratio of 1.15x) & with the latest acquisition of Vietnam SEALTH, and expected tenancy ratio from both Myanmar and Vietnam, the NEW assumptions should be (5,000 towers + tenancy ratio of 1.45-1.80x), the upside is GREAT.
No wonder last friday got annoucnement also kena pressed... no more blocking.... how high can go?
On behalf of the Company, Kenanga IB is pleased to announce that the Company has fixed the issue price for the placement for 79,224,100 Placement Shares, being the first and only tranche of the Proposed Private Placement, at RM0.81 per Placement Share.
The issue price of the Placement Shares of RM0.81 represents a discount of approximately 2.75% to the five (5)-day volume weighted average market price of OCK Shares up to and including 5 August 2016 (being the last market day prior to the Price-Fixing Date), of RM0.8329 per OCK Share.
Excluding 920 currently on going from OCK....Telenor still need another 4000+ tower within the next 3 years 2017-2019 to meet the coverage obligations of its licence....Plenty opportunity for OCK....
Norwegian-owned cellco Telenor Myanmar has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Malaysia’s OCK Group and King Royal Technologies for the construction and lease of more than 900 towers. Regarding the deal, the Myanmar Times cites Telenor Myanmar’s head of communications, Joachim Rajarim as saying that the operator is enlisting new tower companies to ensure that it achieves the coverage obligations of its licence, which require the cellco to serve 90% of the country within five years. ‘To date, we have built close to 3,700 sites in 13 states and regions in Myanmar, and believe that we will need to build close to 9,000 sites in order to provide solid nationwide voice and data coverage,’ the official explained, adding: ‘We see the clear need to expand our supply chain to secure and build sites, as rollout progresses from high density urban areas and large townships to smaller towns, villages and rural areas, and we continue to work closely with all existing partners to accelerate rollout.’
With the introduction of 3G and 3G+ and imminent arrival of 4G into the Vietnamese mobile market, the demand for new mobile services is beginning to show signs of growth from the previously stagnant market.
(Source: Ministry of Information and Communications of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, "Vietnam Smartphone Subscriptions to Triple", 18 June 2016)
The latest edition of the Ericsson's Mobility Report and the South East Asia and Oceania report, highlighting mobile network coverage and network performance, predicts smartphone subscriptions in Vietnam will triple from around 30 million in 2015.
With a view to monetising mobile data services growth, operators need an environment that enables agility in service creation, delivery and management, with fast launch of a much broader range of innovative products. Innovation comes through an ecosystem of partners and suppliers. The roll out of the 4G/ Long Term Evolution ("LTE") network in Vietnam is expected to see more mobile data services being used. Services such as social networking and video streaming will continue to grow as Vietnamese people continue to embrace the benefit of data connectivity.
In fairness, Kenanga 'downgraded' TP from 95 sen to 93 sen , because of enlarged share capital by 10% due to PP. I can live with that...increase of 10% of shares but only lose 2 sen ( or 2.1%) of TP is quite an acceptable trade off. OCK now much stronger financially with additional RM64 mil in the bank. Less borrowings in USD is also good...never know what USD/MYR will be in coming months and years.
How soon will before it breaks new high? Kalau gua tau, ho sey liau lo :-)
But at least, the main 'culprit' (PP) is out of the way.
Not sure there is a similarity trend, Gadang did a pp at 1.80, a few weeks/months after completed the PP, now Gadang is 2.50. The guy who took up Gadang PP is laughing to the bank. Both OCK and Gadang has growth potential, the only difference, OCK has more sustainable assets going forward. OCK Warrant at 26 sen, still look attractive, as you pay a third of the mother share, but share the same growth excitement.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
xhenjun
36 posts
Posted by xhenjun > 2016-08-05 09:14 | Report Abuse
need more volume.