my confident towards sona increase few notches with this QA. Particularly concern over purchases where you don't know who the real owners and from certain countries eg Rusian, Indon, Africans... Those cases are normally related transactions hide under nominees, flippers, marked up prices and high degree of cheating...
this deal looks clean, good and the sellers are reputable and they need to sell for cashflow
Agree, after this deal, can still go for another good acquisition and in 1-2 years the oil price recover above usd55, I think this is going to be an interesting investment.
trader66 With this purchase, SONA may still hold a lot of cash to look for other QA if any. Indeed, this is a very good move for this wise acquisition. Just wait, if every steps go smoothly. Believe this counter will attract a lot of fund Mgr's investment. It will definitely show a quantum leap price in near future.
The Stag Oilfield investment - about 40% of fund, pls bear in mind there is additional capital investment for Infill production wells to expedite oil production and future oil exploration cost.
I believe SC will approve the QA as the deal is favourable to shareholders.
As we are entering buyer market when many big O&G players need cash badly, more opportunity for good acquisition in the next few months
I believe Sona will acquire another assets with the cash available.
SONA thinks too smart. They should Juz come moly with SC REWUIREMENTS AND THATS SHY THIS "news" was like last time news ... Expiry date already next year cthey still juz got SC APPROVAL YET!!!
callme777 is right that sona only use 40% of their fund to buy into stag and the sc clearly said for spac MUST use 80% of fund to buy asset cannot for capex etc. can sc approve?
further i really worry can we get dividend or good return after qa? the asset is offshore. last i remember petronas said cost for offshore about $40 per barrel to produce excluding transport, refining, etc. now market about $46 a barrel only.
i really thinking hard to stay with sona or sell and increase my investment in cliq and reach. bought at average 0.42 and if can reach 0.50 really happy and better sell all. but seem market react negative to this deal. so how?
Announce buying but cannot get approval from SC as they didn't comply to requirements waste time and money for submission and due diligence report. Market not stupid.
if you read carefully about SPAC rule:- 80% of trust account, it does mention fair market price, not purchasing price. So you cannot consider "50mil" has violated the rule. It was already mentioned in the announcement that SONA has considered on this rule, the fair market value of oil field should align to to this >80% rule.
good read imho. In the end of the day, if you average price is below the refund level, it's a good deal, considering that it's less than 1 year to expiry of QA period. if the $ return is more than FD, why not?
Cliq's QA hits the wall as SC requested them to revised purchase price lower, and indication of not approved unless price is lowered
There was analysis of purchase comparison between Cliq's QA and Sona's QA - Sona investment cost is USD3.10 per barrel vs Cliq's USD5.80 - 46% cheaper than Cliq's cost
i can tell u this one my friend in oil and gas said this sona asset high cost to get oil bcoz offshore asset. sona report production cost alone us$48 one barrel and now oil price only us$45 dollar is it.
but i still want to retain stake in sona because i buy low last time. worst case i profit a little cannot rugi one. i just hv doubt on this sona after QA. don't want be like hibiscus jatuh kaw kaw now after QA.
PETALING JAYA: Although CLIQ Energy Bhd and Sona Petroleum Bhd have both announced details of their qualifying acquisition (QA), it is left to be seen if they will pass the hurdles of securing both the regulators and their shareholder approvals. And the trick is for them to do so within a tight time frame.
In Sona’s case, it has to secure these approvals by July 29, 2016, which is about nine months away, while CLIQ has a shorter deadline, namely April 9 or 159 days away.
Amid gloomy mood looming the oil and gas sector, convincing 75% shareholders to agree on their proposed acquisitions will be a tough one, especially both counters is trading at a discount to their cash value.
According to Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research recent report on SPAC, CLIQ and Sona have net cash per share of 71.8 sen and 47.9 sen respectively.
At the current share price of CLIQ at 68.5 sen and Sona at 44.5 sen, the upside to their cash value are 4.8% and 7.6% respectively.
CLIQ has already submitted its QA to the Securities Commission (SC) and targeting to call for a shareholders meeting early next year.
CLIQ managing director and chief executive officer Ahmad Ziyad Elias told StarBiz that CLIQ was targeting to complete the deal in early-March next year.
Recall, CLIQ identified its QA in March this year that involved an acquisition a 51% stake in two oil fields from Kazakhstan-based Phystech Firm LLP for an estimated US$117mil. The price for the oilfields was based on assumption of a crude oil price range of US$70 to US$89 per barrel (Urals crude oil) between 2015 and 2021.
Urals crude oil is a basis for pricing for the Russian export oil mixture that hovers slightly below Brent crude and above WTI crude. On Monday, Urals was trading at US$45.71 per barrel.
Ziyad said CLIQ’s evaluation for the first operation forecast was US$52.40 per barrel.
Although the deal will exclude liabilities, payables, cash and receivables, CLIQ’s proposed QA is beyond its affordability due to the weakening ringgit. As at March 31, CLIQ has RM345.8mil in its trust account.
When CLIQ announced the proposal in March, the asset cost for CLIQ is RM433mil, but due to the sharp decline in the ringgit against the greenbag, the value is now about RM510mil.
Upon completion of the acquisition, CLIQ will only need to pay US$90mil or RM393mil, and the remaining US$27.3mil will be paid by the end of the third year.
CLIQ had proposed a RM210mil rights issue to make up for any foreign-exchange loss and the balance would be for capital expenditure (capex) to develop the field. The proposed rights issue is conditional upon the approval of the proposed QA.
According to CLIQ’s proposal, the oilfields in Kazakhstan started production in 2008, producing about 1,400 barrels of oil per day from 102 wells.
It has been estimated that the Karazhanbas Northern Field’s 2P reserves (proved and probable) as at Jan 1, is 39.4 million barrels, which translate to 20.1 million barrels as per CLIQ’s 51% stake in the field.
Based on back-of-the-envelope calculations, CLIQ is paying US$5.84 per barrel for this deal, which is higher than Sona’s QA deal.
Sona is paying US$50mil or US$3.08 per barrel for its planned acquisition of 100% equity in the Stag Oilfield off Western Australia.
Note that the Stag Oilfield has been in production for about 18 years, while the Karazhanbas Northern Field is about seven years.
Ziyad said the development and production cost for the asset was around USD$15 per barrel.
“We projected the cost to be less than US$10 per barrel when the company ramp-up production to 7,500 barrel per day at the end of fourth year operation,” he said, adding that the company was aiming to drill 400 wells from 120 wells currently.
Post completion of the QA by CLIQ, there is a requirement of US$30mil (RM131.64mil) working capital for the first year, of which CLIQ will finance US$15.3 million of it from their 51% shareholding, and the remaining will be by Phystech.
“We only need to fund the first and part of the second year capex. The following years will be from project generated revenues,” Ziyad said.
He added that the first development phase will ramp up production by 30% from 1,400 barrels of oil per day currently.
However, Phystech’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin has been on a decline from 38.3% in 2011 to 17.5% in 2013. The decline was due to production inefficiencies, but is expected to improve with the new proposed development plan, CLIQ says.
On the Sona deal, after calling off its proposal to acquire Salamander Energy (Bualuang) Ltd’s gas producing assets offshore Thailand, it recently announced its second QA attempt.
The deal involves an oilfield that has been in production since 1998. The field is expected to have 2P reserves of 16.2 million barrels and currently producing 4,600 barrels of oil per day.
Sona’s head honcho Datuk Seri Hadian Hashim tells StarBiz he is targeting to submit the proposed QA to SC by end of this month.
For the deal, Sona is expected to use 40% of its trust money, whereas the SC has stipulated that a QA should use at least 80% of the SPAC’s trust monies.
Hadian says that Sona is looking at an initial capex of US$80mil, which would be funded from the trust money. This will be used to undertake further development of the Stag Oilfield to enhance production including the drilling of infill production wells.
“The current cost of production is about US$26 per barrel and we are also targeting to ramp up production of about 20% to 25% as a start,” he said.
According to an industry expert, the downside of CLIQ’s deal is the to fix its production efficiency, while for Sona it is to sustain the production considering it is an 18 years old field.
“Both companies’ entry cost is quite attractive and reasonable considering they are producing oilfields and at the current low oil price environment, but main hurdle is to sustain the productions and would need additional capex to maintain the field,” the expert said. the star
some notes for SONA: Purchasing cost: 50mil USD (3.08 USD per barrel) initial capex: 80 mil USD production cost: ~26 USD per barrel production volume: 4.6k barrel (expected to ramp up by > 20%)
with these costs considered, 4.6k x120%x (assume 40USD per barrel - 30 USD per barrel) = 55.2K per day = 20mil revenue per year, positive earning is expected.
what the!? aiyoo why keep falling? how to make money like this? sona mgt pls do something. use your salary and up the price. if like this how shareholders to vote for QA.
SHOULD I SELL???I M STILL HOLDING AT 0.525..IF SELL NOW,NOT SO MUCH LOSS..IF SELL LATER I WORRIED LOSSES MORE AND MORE..THIS SONA MAKE ME HEADACHE ALL THE TIME
If the acquisition is within the guidelines set for SPAC, then the lifeline is clear and the status of the SPAC will be removed to be a permanent listed entity after getting the necessary approvals from SC.
Then the warrant holders will breathe a new lease of life until the expiry of the warrant before converting.
i too need money bcoz not much to go around. already invested heavily in all 3 spac. can sona get approval by january? i remember cliq submit to sc august till now still waiting for sc greenlight. also last time sona submit to sc for salamander and sc only approve very last minute. aiyooo so scared and confuse like this. i put so much faith in cliq and sona and reach.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
nice1
819 posts
Posted by nice1 > 2015-11-03 20:02 | Report Abuse
my confident towards sona increase few notches with this QA. Particularly concern over purchases where you don't know who the real owners and from certain countries eg Rusian, Indon, Africans... Those cases are normally related transactions hide under nominees, flippers, marked up prices and high degree of cheating...
this deal looks clean, good and the sellers are reputable and they need to sell for cashflow
Thumbs up, Sona