Posted by sosfinance > 2016-07-10 04:10 | Report Abuse

"A big question for minority shareholders is probably whether the anticipated robust earnings growth will offset the impact of the dilution." (last sentence from The Edge Issue 1118, July 11-17 of 2016)

Let us answer this big question (that The Edge or the analysts raised):

1. It is pretty simple, Myanmar build and lease back project, average project payback period is 6.5 years.

2. Hence, the EV/EBITDA = 6.5X

3. Assuming all OCK warrants are converted, cash raised is RM187m (246m warrants x 71 sen exercise price). Therefore, the EV/EBITDA is 6.5X.

4. The Indonesia listed telco towers provide EV/EBITDA is 12-18x.

5. A very rough comparison is, there is upside to the 6.5x to at least close to 12x, if we were to compared with Indonesia (since there is no listed Malaysia telco tower yet).

6. So, the big question, is after all not that big. The earnings growth (with higher tenancy ratio), will definitely offset the impact of the dilution. Even if there is no growth, the sustainable cash flow, and low EV/EBITDA, there are very good potential upside if the warrants are converted.

7. The risk of execution in Myanmar was also mitigated after OCK had built about 50 towers and is accelerating it.

8. Time for RERATING? Have to wait for the sifu of i3 to press the button, like Bornoil.

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-07-13 14:10 | Report Abuse

Accumulated a bit at 23 sen.

Posted by zoomboom > 2016-07-13 17:23 | Report Abuse

sosfinance bro, u very good at spotting and researching :-)

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-07-13 20:03 | Report Abuse

OCK warrants expire in Dec 2020, there is another 4 years 6 months. Due to the transformation of OCK from maintenance to build and lease model, from 2017 onwards, OCK will have much improved biz model, not only contribute high cash flow (EBITDA >65%), sustainable (22 years contract) and also good potential of growth (improve in tenancy ratio of the towers).

After 920 towers completed end of this year or first quarter of 2017, they will need to build another 500 towers each year from 2017 - 2020.

In addition, OCK is getting the brownfield towers in Vietnam as well. Thats why it is raising up to RM80m as equity. Issue at PE of above 20x to buy an asset with payback period of less than 8X, I think it will contribute positively to the Group (the earnings will be more than offset the dilution).

In about 4 years time, the warrant could be 2X, 3X or 4X?

Posted by zoomboom > 2016-07-13 20:25 | Report Abuse

sosfinance bro, again u make me drool.... lol.... thx for the analysis sharing...

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-07-22 11:01 | Report Abuse

Last few trading days looks like overbought based on RSI.

Posted by funda > 2016-07-26 12:25 | Report Abuse

bought again today, this few day vol seem quite high... something is brewing?

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-08-09 09:53 | Report Abuse

OCK can add more value to the Vietnam deal than the private equity. Besides the sustainable assets at a decent price (EV/EBITDA is only 8X), the growth on tenancy ratio is great. With possible upgrade and consolidations of the telco towers, there are rooms of opportunity for OCK.

Once OCK completed the PP, the deal (SPA) and the loan for the Vietnam deal, there is a good chance of rerating. There will be good upside even at 26 sen. Execution is the key. Don't buy and expect it to go up the next day, keep it for a while (a year or two).

Posted by mhelmi80 > 2016-08-11 15:39 | Report Abuse

keep droping...the result not good?

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-08-11 19:29 | Report Abuse

Accumulate a bit at 25 sen.

Posted by mhelmi80 > 2016-08-22 14:52 | Report Abuse

heavy selling today..huh
any news?

Posted by bigbigboss > 2016-08-22 14:54 | Report Abuse

this call heavy selling ?

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-08-23 11:37 | Report Abuse

Accumulate a bit as OCK W is oversold position.

Posted by ez6699 > 2016-08-26 10:20 | Report Abuse

the smart one quietly collect.....

Posted by gick891214 > 2016-08-31 18:38 | Report Abuse

will follow mother , if mother up, sure up on monday :P

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-09-02 18:54 | Report Abuse

Accumulate when no one is interested. Today's volume is only 570,000 vs 5 & 8 of August, the volume were around 25,000,000.

Posted by zolemi > 2016-09-27 09:32 | Report Abuse

why i feel so scary right now..

Posted by kingcobra > 2016-10-12 16:20 | Report Abuse

warrants are cheaper

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-10-18 11:52 | Report Abuse

23 August (22 sen) to 18 Oct (25 sen). For trader is not bad. For investor, a bit too low for me. Depends on your time frame of investment. I remember one writer said, once you jump in and out of a good "compound interest" bus, you may not gain as much as you suppose to.

For trader is different, they go in a few loads warrants, and they get out in a few loads as well. Different strategy as compared with investors.

Posted by zoomboom > 2016-10-18 14:24 | Report Abuse

sosfinance bro, i have been on the train for the longest time... lol... looks like departing the station. lets see where is the next stop :-)

getting exciting.

stay calm. stay focused.

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-10-26 17:25 | Report Abuse

@zoomboom, wow, you got on the train very early (3 yrs). I just started after the baby (warrants) was born in Dec 2015.

So, its only 10 months for me. A lot of things have happened between Dec 2015 and now:

Myanmar deal finally signed,RI, PP, Bank Loan Approved for Myanmar, PE partner (CapitalAsia Telco) with OCK for Vietnam Deal, about 300 units delivered in Myanmar, coming EGM to approve Vietnam deal.

Company financial position is definitely strengthened significantly, however, share price only up about 12 sen from 70 sen. Its warrants will be a great leverage for the growth (another 4 years 2 months to go). By Aug next year, I hope the warrants can gain at least 50%.

Posted by funda > 2016-10-28 17:38 | Report Abuse

wow.. son reach my cost finally... :P

Posted by zoomboom > 2016-11-01 14:14 | Report Abuse

sosfinance bro, well, not as early as bro zlyc :-) he is the champion so far. since IPO I think lol...

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-11-03 17:49 | Report Abuse

Will try to grab more at 23 sen. Potential will be great as the towers in Myanmar are sub-tenant out to other operators, therefore increasing its tenancy ratio. (accumulate - within your plan)

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-11-08 15:57 | Report Abuse

One of XLSA favourite. Lately, CredoX favourite. Last week, FS watch list. UOX also think it has potential. Below 24 sen, great upside. One of my favourite, not because of XLSA, CredoX, FS or UOX favourite, because upside is >100% (the warrants).

Posted by zoomboom > 2016-11-09 16:02 | Report Abuse

bargains galore....

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-11-09 17:00 | Report Abuse

Great bargain for prospective investors. Will be a wasted opportunity if not capitalised. Accumulate gradually below 23 sen.

Posted by funda > 2016-11-17 14:52 | Report Abuse

wonder who is the one throwing WA below 23sen? really a good bargain now...

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-11-17 15:50 | Report Abuse

1. Accumulate when low volume. Project IRR is above 16%. OCK own 70% & with good chance of tenancy growth & >10 years leaseback period.

2. EPF buy Ekovest's toll road & was guaranteed only IRR of 10% for 10 years and only for 40%, cannot even control the cash flow or dividend. [There are pros and cons of holding in associate level.]

3. Business model is not comparable although both has high EBITDA.

4. IRR of 16% or more vs 10%.

Posted by ttwong > 2016-11-17 16:02 | Report Abuse

sosfinance, can you elaborate what do you means by IRR 16%? Which project you are referring to?

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-11-17 19:42 | Report Abuse

Myanmar 920 towers.

Posted by funda > 2016-11-18 00:15 | Report Abuse

Both OCK n Ekovest are Potential future cash Cow... I own both...
Personally, I think OCK wa would provide you much better return due to high gearing, further more the business is recession proof... the only different is ekovest got huge publicity n but big shark pushing behind.... OCK still stay undercover n ignore by most ppl...

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-12-02 18:14 | Report Abuse

Go for medium to long term. 1-5 years. Earnings from the investment in Myanmar and Vietnam will only comes in significantly 2Q and 3Q 2017. Accumulate a bit at 21.5sen.

Posted by zoomboom > 2016-12-08 15:34 | Report Abuse

looks very tempting now the price....

Posted by funda > 2016-12-08 16:41 | Report Abuse

yes bro zoom... but scratch head where to get bullet....haha

Posted by zlyc > 2016-12-09 11:12 | Report Abuse

zoomboom sudah pigi loan?

Posted by zoomboom > 2016-12-09 17:22 | Report Abuse

come to think of it, i wonder how the ah longs know .... suddenly so many sms asking to take personal loan... coincidence?.. lol...

no la zlyc bro, i don't dare to take loan and trade.... i play safe... only what i can afford hehe..

my gut feel the price now is sibeh nice to enter some and keep. (for those that takde la)... Q4 report come March should be nice.... traditionally.... betul tak zlyc bro? u sudah angkat loan beli berlambak ke?.... me holding the free warrants since day one... didn't pay a sen for this lol...

funda, haahaha... high and dry huh?.... lol... i know the feeling...

calm and steady.

Posted by funda > 2016-12-09 17:31 | Report Abuse

Zoom, yeah. calm and steady... I already get ready for long term play, preparing some bullet to average down if this wa drop drastically (can't resist myself, LOL)....

Posted by zoomboom > 2016-12-09 18:29 | Report Abuse

funda bro, ur warrants not free meh?.... u didn't hold mother share when they gave it our for free?... or u bought smore when warrants listed?..

Posted by funda > 2016-12-13 11:05 | Report Abuse

bro zoom, i enter OCK quite "Late", join the ship somewhere around middle of 2016. straight away bought warrant,haha.... too bad didn't notice OCK much earlier

Posted by funda > 2016-12-13 11:07 | Report Abuse

and I top up too much during few fake breakout :P that's why my average price for son is around 25cent... anyway I am still confident with it, and get ready for plan B in case market crash kick in...

Posted by Kkevin2625 > 2016-12-14 13:52 | Report Abuse

i'm waiting for this counter about 2mothn to buy in, and finally have my first step on this ock wa with 0.195 ...same straight go to warrant, not yet for mother

Posted by zoomboom > 2016-12-14 22:54 | Report Abuse

funda bro, don't worry, its never too late punya. from my short experience, 3 tahun ada... lol... opportunities always come ... - these come in the form of fear... whether globally or locally...
look on the bright side - the overseas profits belum kick in fully yet :-).

Kkevin2625, welcome to the boat. warrants don't expire till 2020. plenty of time to long term this. Just make sure don't all in or invest not using your own money (borrow) then u can long term with good sleep.

zlyc bro ada sempat hantam 0.195 boh?

calm. steady. focused.

Posted by zlyc > 2016-12-15 10:28 | Report Abuse

zoom bro, pocket money tak banyak sangat. Last batch entry price 20 cents, tak banyak beza... biar dulu.

Posted by zoomboom > 2016-12-15 13:08 | Report Abuse

okok zlyc bro... kita sabar dan continue steady...

Posted by funda > 2016-12-15 15:53 | Report Abuse

patience is the key to success!

Posted by funda > 2016-12-15 15:55 | Report Abuse

wow, just realize bro zlyc is super hardcore supporter of OCK since 2012... huge profit since IPO...

Posted by zlyc > 2016-12-15 17:05 | Report Abuse

@funda: yes as i know a bit of the company since day 1 and holding very tight. (some very loose... haha short term play). This share you need not to monitor closely and keep you sleep well. I can smell some good thing coming pretty soon again.

Posted by Kkevin2625 > 2016-12-15 20:46 | Report Abuse

wow 2012, about 4years le, good patience tho

Posted by Kkevin2625 > 2016-12-15 20:47 | Report Abuse

@zoomboom ya, 2020, i don't borrow to invest...and my capital not much too :D