Q2 results coming tomorrow. From Q1 performance, if LCT can achieve RM50 mil or more net profit for 2nd quarter amid all the pandemic impact on the overall manufacturing industry, it will be a good return to profitability for this company. Another note is to see how it's operating CF for Q2 to indicate it's operational health and performance moving ahead.
Im forecasting 150m on the basis on that was their avg profit from previous quarters before Q1. Also, margin improved in Q2 so technically should be higher. We just have to Q3 which will good for sure.
Based on observation, it may be rather difficult for LCT to reach 150-200 millions net profit as similar to past years. Although much improved from the last quarter, their product ASP level is still much lower as compared to 2019.
Last year polymer ASP was above $1000/MT, now the market ASP is hovering just around $750-800/MT. Can expect there would still be some margin compression seen YoY. But there should be gradual improvement in the coming quarters, should there be no sudden spike in crude oil price, which tied to their operating cost.
The spread between Naphtha and PP/PE have been widen substantially started April. Demand has been improved after MCO. Could be beginning of up cycle for resin producer now.
The results is good sign for the company, way above my expectation. Net profit 96 mil (qoq +266 mil). Operating profit even better at 119 mil (+310 million qoq). Looked like a huge earnings turnaround for this quarter. Even their operating CF for 1H20 sits at over half a billion ringgit. A cash rich company and expect things will get even better gradually in the coming quarters.
Earnings are now back to Q2 & Q3 2019 levels. So the fundamental share price should reflective of similar period last year levels, around RM3-3.50. Have good faith in this company.
Consider recovery phase during this covid period, good to hold due to: 1. Recovery on sales volume 2. Good result from vaccine progress, hopefully can ready in market on next year.(uncertainty) 3. Strong cash flow to overcome difficulty period. 4. Indonesia plant is in progress , future business expansion is wise good strategies. Only need to track the timely progress. ( Good for long term business expansion) 5. Compare 1st QR, 2nd QR is more satisfying ( good signal)
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LiimInvest
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Posted by LiimInvest > 2020-07-28 23:46 | Report Abuse
Tp > RM3