Ten years ago, the price of gold sat at $1,246 per ounce. Today, it’s worth $2,350.65 per ounce. That marks an 88.66% increase in value, or an average annual return of 8.86% (not calculated for compounding). 😁😁😁
When Richard Nixon severed the dollar from gold backing in 1971, the price of gold suddenly started floating at market rates. It consequently skyrocketed over the rest of the 1970s, delivering an average annual return of 40.2%.
Finally, gold offers a non-correlated hedge against stock market crashes. In other words, gold offers diversification — a collapse in financial markets doesn’t cause a collapse in gold prices. Quite the opposite: many investors believe gold will rise in price if a bear market hits.
What is the amount accumulated for a sum of $10000 at a compound rate of 10% per annum for 50 years ?
Certainly! Let’s calculate the amount accumulated using the compound interest formula:
[ A = P \left(1 + \frac{r}{n}\right)^{nt} ]
where:
(A) is the accrued amount (principal + interest). (P) is the principal amount (initial investment), which is $10,000. (r) is the annual nominal interest rate as a decimal (10% becomes 0.10). (n) is the number of compounding periods per year (assuming annual compounding, so (n = 1)). (t) is the time in years (50 years). Plugging in the values:
[ A = 10,000 \left(1 + \frac{0.10}{1}\right)^{1 \cdot 50} ]
Solving this:
[ A \approx $1,173,909 ]
After investing for 50 years at 10% interest, your initial investment of $10,000 will have grown to approximately $1,173,909, earning $1,163,909 in interest1
Some general insights on factors that typically influence gold prices:
Economic Conditions: Gold often acts as a safe haven during economic uncertainty or market volatility. If the economy is facing challenges, gold prices might rise as investors seek stability.
Interest Rates: Lower interest rates can make gold more attractive because it doesn’t yield interest. Conversely, higher rates might lead to lower gold prices as investors might prefer income-generating assets.
Inflation: Gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation. When inflation is high, gold prices often rise as investors seek to protect their purchasing power.
Geopolitical Events: Political instability or geopolitical tensions can drive up gold prices as investors seek a safe asset.
Currency Strength: Gold prices are often inversely related to the strength of the U.S. dollar. A weaker dollar can lead to higher gold prices.
Many central banks around the world buy and hold gold as part of their national reserves. Central banks typically hold gold for several reasons:
Diversification: Gold provides diversification to a central bank's reserve portfolio, which often includes foreign currencies and government bonds. This can help reduce risk if other assets lose value.
Store of Value: Gold is considered a stable store of value, particularly in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty. It can act as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
Historical Precedent: Historically, gold has been a trusted reserve asset. Even though many countries moved off the gold standard in the 20th century, gold remains a significant component of reserves for many central banks.
Currency Reserves: Some central banks purchase gold as a way to strengthen their reserves and improve their balance of payments. It can also serve as a buffer in case of currency crises or financial instability.
In recent years, central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been increasing their gold holdings. Countries like China, Russia, and India have been notable buyers. These nations often see gold as a strategic asset that complements their foreign currency reserves.
On the other hand, some developed countries, like the United States and Germany, already hold large quantities of gold and tend to make fewer changes to their gold reserves.
The exact reasons and strategies can vary from country to country, but the trend of holding gold as part of national reserves remains strong.
National debt as a percentage of GDP varies widely among countries and can change over time due to economic conditions, fiscal policies, and other factors. Here’s a general overview of how national debt as a percentage of GDP looked globally around recent years. For the most current figures, it's best to consult up-to-date sources such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, or national financial authorities.
General Overview of National Debt Percentages Developed Economies:
United States: Approximately 130% of GDP. Japan: Around 260% of GDP (one of the highest in the world). Eurozone Average: Roughly 95% of GDP. Individual countries vary, with Greece and Italy having higher percentages (over 150% for Greece, for example). Emerging Markets:
China: Around 65-70% of GDP, though this includes both government and total debt, with rapid changes in recent years. India: About 90% of GDP. Brazil: Approximately 95% of GDP. Developing Economies:
Many developing countries have debt-to-GDP ratios in the range of 30-70%, though this can vary widely based on economic conditions and borrowing levels. Factors Influencing National Debt Economic Performance: Strong economic growth can help manage or reduce debt-to-GDP ratios. Fiscal Policy: Government spending and taxation policies directly affect national debt levels. Global Economic Conditions: Recessions, financial crises, and global economic conditions can influence national debt. Currency and Interest Rates: The cost of borrowing and currency value can impact debt servicing costs and overall debt levels. Sources for Up-to-Date Information International Monetary Fund (IMF): Provides comprehensive data on global debt levels and forecasts. World Bank: Offers data and analysis on national and global economic indicators. National Financial Authorities: Each country's finance ministry or central bank typically publishes national debt statistics and economic reports. For the latest figures, checking these sources or recent financial reports would give you the most accurate and current data on national debt percentages.
National debt can indeed pose a risk to the stability and value of a country's currency, though the relationship is complex and influenced by a variety of factors. Here’s how national debt might affect a currency:
1. Inflationary Pressures: Debt Financing: If a government finances its debt by printing more money, this can lead to inflation. Inflation decreases the purchasing power of a currency, which can weaken it. Expectations: High levels of debt can raise concerns about potential future inflation, leading to decreased confidence in the currency. 2. Interest Rates: Higher Rates: Governments with high levels of debt may need to offer higher interest rates to attract investors to buy their bonds. This can make borrowing more expensive for the government and can also affect economic growth. Monetary Policy: Central banks might need to adjust interest rates in response to high national debt levels, which can impact the currency. For instance, higher interest rates can strengthen a currency by attracting foreign capital, but this can also slow down economic growth. 3. Investor Confidence: Creditworthiness: High levels of debt can affect a country's credit rating. If investors perceive a higher risk of default, they may demand higher yields on government bonds, which can increase the cost of borrowing and negatively impact the currency. Market Perception: Persistent high debt levels might lead to a loss of confidence among investors and traders, which can cause the currency to depreciate. 4. Economic Growth: Crowding Out: High government debt might crowd out private investment if the government borrows heavily from the financial markets, potentially leading to slower economic growth. Sustainability: If debt levels are deemed unsustainable, it can undermine confidence in the country's economic management and its currency. 5. External Factors: Global Market Conditions: Global economic conditions and investor sentiment can also play significant roles. A country with high debt might be more vulnerable to global financial crises or shifts in market sentiment. Exchange Rates: In a globalized economy, currency values are influenced by international trade, capital flows, and economic policies of other countries as well. Examples and Considerations: Developed vs. Developing Countries: Developed countries with high debt levels, such as Japan and the United States, often have strong, stable currencies due to their economic size and stability. Conversely, developing countries with high debt levels may experience more volatility and risk of currency depreciation. Debt Management: Effective debt management and economic policies can mitigate some of the risks associated with high national debt. Countries with transparent fiscal policies and strong economic fundamentals may better manage the impact of high debt levels on their currencies. Overall, while national debt can influence currency value, it is one of many factors. Economic conditions, monetary policy, investor confidence, and global market dynamics all interact to shape currency stability and value.
Gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against various economic risks. Certain economic conditions can make gold particularly attractive for investment. Here’s a breakdown of the key conditions that are generally favorable for gold investment:
1. Inflation: Rising Inflation: Gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation. When inflation is high or accelerating, the purchasing power of fiat currencies decreases, and gold's value often rises as investors seek to preserve their wealth. 2. Economic Uncertainty: Recessions and Economic Slowdowns: During periods of economic downturns or uncertainty, investors often flock to gold as a safe-haven asset. Gold can provide stability and preserve value when other investments are underperforming. Geopolitical Risks: Political instability, conflicts, or geopolitical tensions can drive investors to gold, as it is viewed as a stable asset amid uncertainty. 3. Low Interest Rates: Reduced Opportunity Cost: When interest rates are low, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold decreases. Investors may prefer gold over interest-bearing assets because it doesn’t yield interest but can appreciate in value. Monetary Policy: Central banks setting low or negative interest rates can make gold more attractive compared to government bonds and savings accounts, which offer lower returns. 4. Currency Weakness: Weakening of Major Currencies: If major currencies like the U.S. dollar are weakening, gold often gains value as it is priced in those currencies. A weaker dollar, for instance, generally boosts gold prices because it becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies. 5. High Debt Levels: Government Debt: Elevated national debt levels can lead to concerns about fiscal stability and potential currency devaluation. Gold can be seen as a safe store of value when there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of government finances. 6. Market Volatility: Stock Market Fluctuations: In times of significant market volatility or declining equity markets, investors might turn to gold to reduce risk and diversify their portfolios. 7. Long-Term Trends: Bullish Trends: Long-term economic trends such as persistent low interest rates, high debt levels, or ongoing inflationary pressures can create favorable conditions for gold. Investors often look at these broader trends to make long-term investment decisions. Considerations for Gold Investment: Diversification: Even if economic conditions are favorable, gold should typically be part of a diversified investment portfolio to manage risk. Volatility: While gold can be a stable investment in uncertain times, its price can still be volatile in the short term. Investors should be prepared for potential price swings. Storage and Liquidity: Consider practical aspects like storage and liquidity. Physical gold requires secure storage, while gold ETFs or mining stocks offer more liquidity but come with different risks. Overall, gold is generally considered a good investment during times of inflation, economic instability, low interest rates, currency weakness, high debt, and market volatility. As always, it's essential to assess individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon before making investment decisions.
A Reuters report indicated that the PBoC has allocated new gold import quotas to several commercial banks, anticipating renewed demand despite high prices of gold.
With gold’s push to record highs above $2,500 an ounce, the precious metal is up roughly 20% in 2024.
In comparison, Bank of America noted that cryptocurrencies have risen 17.7%, stocks have rallied 15.4%, the overall commodity sector is up only 1.9%, government bonds have increased by 0.6%, and the U.S. dollar has gained 0.2% year-to-date.
Gold prices are even outperforming the tech sector, with the Nasdaq Composite Index up 17%.
The Fund aims to provide investors with investment results that closely track the performance of Gold price. A minimum of 95% of its NAV will be invested in physical Gold Bars purchased from LBMA accredited refineries to meet the Fund's objective. For liquidity purposes, the remaining balance of its NAV will be invested in Islamic money market instruments and/or Islamic deposits. The Fund will be passively managed, leaving the Fund to be highly invested at all times, irrespective of the outlook on the underlying asset.
This week's key event is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision due on Wednesday. Trader expectations are for a 59% chance of a cut of 50 basis points. (FEDWATCH)
The Federal Open Market Committee is now expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points when it ends its two-day meeting on Wednesday afternoon. The CME Fedwatch tool now sees a 65% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, with a 35% chance of a 25 point cut.
A week ago, the tool showed a 70% chance for the smaller drop.
Fed fund futures suggest that investors are increasingly anticipating a 50-basis-point cut, with markets pricing in a 67% probability, while the chance of a smaller 25-basis-point reduction stands at 33%, as per the CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Gold's safe-haven appeal was strengthened by some political uncertainty, following reports that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump faced a second assassination attempt on Sunday.
Over the past three months, gold-tracking ETFs have drawn in billions in inflows, with retail investors now jumping on board, hoping to capitalize on the metal's momentum.
The net inflows into these ETFs signal that many see more upside ahead, especially as the Fed's anticipated rate cuts could push yields lower, further reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Yes. Thanks Ahbah for the updates. Gold is going above 2600 an oz soon. Ukraine vs Russia wars not ending and Israel vs Hamas & Hasbollah wars are intensifying. US dollars are dropping.
The Fed 50-point pivot on 18th Sept. 2024 had created a long, clear and upward trajectory for gold. Buy gold now so as not to miss this superbull gold run. ✅✅✅
GOLD IS FOR WAR. EVERYONE HOLDS GOLD TO HEDGE AGAINST WAR AND INFLATION. BITCOINS IS FOR BILLIONAIRES GATEWAY TO RUN TO ANOTHER COUNTRY FROM A WAR TORN COUNTRY IN EASE. ALL THANKS TO THE US FOR APPROVING THE CRYPTO ETF RECENTLY.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
masterus
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Posted by masterus > 2024-05-31 07:20 | Report Abuse
Almighty dollar nation is not happy with that. Will they sanction ASEAN?