will wait to collect lower, be patient guys, tech already rallied sky high last month, still need sometime for retracement. now consider grab those those laggard hc stock while price still at seabed (ocncash, prlexus), dont chase others already fly much.
Mr Khor Lean Heng acquired 210,400 shares on the 24th Feb 2021 during which share price is between RM5.960 - RM6.22. I don't see why he would acquire them if he doesn't think the price will move up further from there.
I still dont think current price is reasonable bcz it's still high forward PE. Reasonable price will only appear when drop more.
World market now is selling aggressively for those tech stock that is over traded that cause high valuation. This call 杀股值. Trend is expected to be continued due to:
1. Rising bond yield 2. Trend is changing from tech to recovery stock
Great business. So.. who bought it cheaper can be happier than the ones bought slightly more expensive (like me, i am red). I don't see anyone losing here unless you do quick trading and lose money because you cut loss. It's about choices. With such amazing future, this stock is worth INVESTING for long term. Traders can dance along. Good luck to all.
Any investment is worth investing only if the risk and reward is attractive which measured by valuation. Currently risk is still higher than reward for this counter and valuation is still at high side. This counter will need to drop more reach a reasonable price. Else personally dont think it's a good investment.
Penguin88, the US bond yield chart is yet to picture a clear reversal. Even so, these does not directly affect the businesses in Malaysia rather just the valuations of US stocks as some might choose to switch their investments to bonds.
Greatec clients are from very specific industries i.e. solar panel manufacturers, EV battery makers, medical equipment makes, etc. Medical is defensive industry (does well during market slowdown). EV battery manufacturing and solar panel manufacturing are booming industries (high growth - still a child industry) yet to reach full potential-
-unlike other semiconductor counters (pretty matured industry) which prices are speculated higher and higher based on current growth in demand and the supply gap - perhaps just temporary before profit margins normalize as the supply catches up or when the sudden spike in demand (partially fueled by Covid-19 laggard effect) cools down (yet to count in the risk of huge expansion of chip giants like TSMC whom might capture most market shares going forward at the cost of our local players). Remember how gloves melted after the Golden era?
But, as I said Greatec is special just as its clients.
If Greatec share price starts going up, then, if you want to ride, you might need to buy at higher price. Anyways, everyone can have their opinion. This is my opinion. I am not saying its time for Greatec share price to spike and it is undervalued now. Just saying there is no adverse risks of holding on and perhaps can get hefty growth and return in next 2-10 years. Cheers.
Bursabigbull- Thanks for your comments. My point is just on valuation side- Investment must be made with reasonable price and valuation, no matter how good is the business future is.
Dont you think the 1 year forward PE, 2 year forward PE or even 3 year forward PE of this stock is extremely high even you have accounted the future growth of this stock? You can have a look on the report available for reference on how high the PE is being used. 1 point to note- FY22 PE is being used to value Greatech (Now is only March 2021), while others stock they are using FY21 PE. What is the logic here?
I believe if the trend of selling tech stock continue, the targeted PE will most probably be lower down hence TP as well.
To protect our hard earned money, we must consider carefully the risk of current price. Is the current price reasonable? Is downside higher or upside higher at current level?
If you are long term investor, then you could just close your eye and dont look into the price movement.
Before the sell off of tech stock, when talk about high PE and ask ppl to think twice, all ppl are laughing and say PE is old minded ppl method. Take a look around the world selling of tech stock now. What is the reason of selling? It's all about the stretched valuation. Cheers.
When ppl are buying tech stock in last year, they said they are trend investor. When now trend reversed where capital are clearly flow out from tech to recovery stock, the same investors say they see long term in tech stock.
Most stocks have dropped at abt same quantum for rebalancing. Always ensure the CORE holdings must outperform i.e. TECH n EV.material stocks r still the global THEME.PLAY...
1st choice, OSAT : MPI, UNISEM, INARI 2nd, EV.CAR material : D&O, PMETAL, PMBTECH, MSC OTHERS : GREATEC, PENTA, UWC, FRONTKN, PARAGON, PA
NB: Interest rate is so so low. Even increase 2% which is impossible = also nothing bad will happen in biz.
Penguin88: Who are THEY? Too general, haha. Greatec is not another tech company. More clarity is needed to see the clear picture here.
PureBULL: Nice point on interest rates, but, what's your bull case for OSAT? It's already pretty high in the sky plus heavy competition going with crazy expansion by TSMC and other players to capture market share. SMIC also trying to get back on feet and recover from trade war. Remember how gloves melted when there was over-expansion? What's your opinion on the competition? Are you sure the surge in demand will be massive enough for all the players to still get good sales volume? and margins might not be attractive anymore when there is excessive expansion.
#Penguin88 When ppl are buying tech stock in last year, they said they are trend investor. When now trend reversed where capital are clearly flow out from tech to recovery stock, the same investors say they see long term in tech stock.
Tech stocks is always evergreen stocks.
Pandemic or Post Pandemic Techs will always be relevant
Bursabigbull- They refer to a lot of retailers that claims themselves as trend investors. A lot from fb group, klsei3 and klse screener...
Mabel- Glove is also relevant during pandemic and post pandemic. Will you buy it? When we talk about trend, it's the industry trend + capital trend. Capital is clearly not in tech stock now until a more reasonable correction reach.
Greatec is not just another tech stock. However, if we assume most money just follows trend blindly and consider Greatec just as another TECH stock, then Great! Maybe time for us to buy the dip.
Do take a look at how Greatech’s main customers First Solar and Lordstown Motor share prices already crashed by 40-50% in 1 month time and still dipping.
#Penguin88 Bursabigbull- They refer to a lot of retailers that claims themselves as trend investors. A lot from fb group, klsei3 and klse screener...
Mabel- Glove is also relevant during pandemic and post pandemic. Will you buy it? When we talk about trend, it's the industry trend + capital trend. Capital is clearly not in tech stock now until a more reasonable correction reach.
05/03/2021 1:23 PM
Mabel has been collecting the Fantastic Four since early last year when Minister Teresa Kok pledge to donate 18 million gloves to China.
In addition to the big 4, Mabel also has Thailand Sri Trang..
Gloves have been good. Now price at a Bargain. All of them gives fantastic Dividend..
Only disadvantage is they are many RSS in that counter. So trade with care..
JT shares, almost all the shares came down recently during the US market crash. Its normal. Healthy pullback. So pls dont spread fear here. Greatech is a fundamentally good company.
JTShares - Share prices follow the profits made eventually. Will solar panel manufacturing not expand? EV will stop booming? Are we going to be stuck with O&G forever? Read some government policies i.e. Malaysia, US on renewable energy and climate control.
Additionally, note that Greatec has significant clients from medical equipment manufacturing industry as well.
When stocks prices drop, it's time to buy the good companies at low prices. Greatec PE is at 78x. Tesla PE is HIGH at 900x even after the correction. Earnings can easily catch up with PE 78x.
Greatec, with current rate of expansion in manufacturing capacity + significant R&D, can easily justify the share price today. Those who is selling, is just selling all the opportunities to someone else at cheaper price.
Bursabigbull- You are right share price follow the profit made eventually and that is why the share price come down now bcz share price run ahead of profit substantially.
We all know Greatech is good, just the high valuation is the matter now.
Can you share what you mean by "Earning can easily catch up with PE 78x"? What would be the expected earnings from you? How you derive and why you are so optimistic on such high earnings growth? When the expected earnings can be made? Mind to share?
Penguin88, of course I am no god to answer on exact timelines. Since I am a long term investor I see how much the company can grow in years. Greatec is in my list of companies of having very good potential to multiply its size in coming years. Why? I have explained the fundamentals of this company and its industry again and again. You can scroll up and see.
Instead of asking clarification of what I mean by can catch up with PE 78x, you mind to explain what you mean by overvalued? Mind telling the risks? I think I have submitted multiple upside case in my earlier comments. It will be repetitive to say again and again.
Why you think this business might not grow? The potential risks? At least mention 1 or 2. Time for you to shine.. And be our guest and name another alternative investment for us which you think has better upside in terms of your "risk to reward"? (Hint: Fixed deposit being the safest). If you can give us a good case on alternative investment, then there is a point talking about selling Greatec shares. Note that with significant multiple stimulus packages given by various governments worldwide there is a huge risk of inflation - it's really bad to hold cash, except for your short term use and emergency fund. Good businesses can always mark up according to the inflation trend. Inflation in a way means, the company will be worth more in terms of RM (MYR) in future as currency loses value (purchase power).
Note: I did diversity into very few other potential stocks but of course I am very positive on Greatec.
Side Note: Going by your short term investing style and following trends; Nasdaq was up last Friday.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
denniszzbl
217 posts
Posted by denniszzbl > 2021-03-02 09:54 | Report Abuse
maybe just a mere technical rebound?