Posted by duitkwspkita > 2014-08-16 09:14 | Report Abuse

I Love FA, here mostly can learn what I want.

the best learning thread for me in i3.

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-08-16 09:29 | Report Abuse

Having said that Ock still can fly as it is very oversold.
Duit, we learn from each other too. You can share how you can predict so accurately the timing.

Posted by duitkwspkita > 2014-08-16 09:41 | Report Abuse

Good morning.
chinesetea, thanks for your reply. Glad to learn and chat in ur thread.

yup, for sure I will share about my prediction method. If u don't mind I wanna ask one question regarding aluminum. Hope someone can assist me.

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-08-16 14:09 | Report Abuse

Dear UncleZ,
Dear asamlaksa,
Dear tewnama,
Dear chinesetea,

Very good morning to all of you. I guess you guys are super busy either with some personal stuffs or at oversea. Have a great weekend. Today is my first day to participate in your thread(been a silent reader/learner long times).

Sorry to disturb you all in such a beautiful Saturday!

I am quite weak in aluminium trading, hope to get some expert advices from you guys.

{{{{ My problem statement-}}}}
1) Would like to know the details of aluminium smelter business operation and its trading mechanism
2) How smelter company benefit from the current aluminium price increase
3) FA wise, when supply-demand reac equilibrium wat would be the price outlook.

{{{{Introduction-}}}}

As many know aluminium is among the limited world natural resources that possesses 100% recyclable and experiences no loss of properties or quantity during the recycling process. We define the recycling symbol as (Tri-ALU 41) or (round-ALU) for Euro zone. Aluminuim is considered as most commonly traded commodities.

-ALUMINIUM IS A BASE BUT NOT PRECIOUS METAL UNDER THE CHEMISTRY PERIODIC TABLE! So its trading codes ALI Metals-subgroup(Base) and LME Aluminium under CME(Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and LME(London Metal Exchange) respectively. I have been watching this Base-Metal's trading profile somewher since year ago and it is not surprised to witness today's global aluminium price rally.

All the alumimium related counters shot up to a 200-days new high as per my prediction on March-2014. My March-2014 prediction to the investors are as such:

LBALUM: Mar-RM0.60 ; TP target predicted: RM0.865 (45%)
PMETAL: Mar-RM2.30 ; TP target predicted: RM4.20 (82%)
PMBTECH:Mar-RM0.72 ; TP target predicted: RM1.21 (68%)

AGain, congrad to all the investors who gained BIG from this rally!

Before I start my queries to all respected experts let me share the key facts that I used for my prediction. I monitor closely those developments(International Aluminium Institute, world largest aluminium smelters, top world producers etc)and zoom in detailed pricing movement, demand-supply, technology evolvement and world commodities trading psycology. Feel free to comment should below analysis inputs are insufficient for our analysis works.

-----Key fact-----
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/aluminum/
1-month ALU price (USD/LB) : ranging 0.840-0.925 ; peak on 21/7 & 11/8
6-month ALU price (USD/LB) : ranging 0.750-0.925 ; Local Max(April)
1-year ALU price (USD/LB) : ranging 0.750-0.925 ; Local Max(Oct&Apr)
5-year ALU price (USD/LB) : ranging 0.585-1.400 ; Global Min(2008) and Global Max(2011)

Top 7 World Largest Aluminium smelters(useful tool for prediction)
No.1 #1.08m t/yr Krasnoyarsk Aluminium Works(Russia)
N0.2 #1.06m t/yr Huomei Hongjun Alum. Smelt (China)
No.3 #1.04m t/yr Dubai (UAE)
N0.4 #1.01m t/yr Bratsk ALum. Works(Russia)
No.5 #0.93m t/yr Alba (Bahrain)
No.6 #0.90m t/yr Bharat Alum. Co(India)
No.7 #0.86m t/yr Xinjiang Easthope Coal Power & Alu. (China)


World Aluminium Producers (price movement key indicators)
N0.1 China No.2 Russia No.3 Canada N0.4 US NO.5 AUs No.6 UAE
----------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-08-16 14:10 | Report Abuse

Enquiries:
(1). May I know more about smelting plant process and their trading mechanism?

(2). How can a alu smelter comp gain extra margin/profit? I like to use 3 segements (Upstream,Midtream & Downstream) for all the commodities business in the world such as Ferous/Coffee/Cocoa/Gold/Alu/Silver/Crude oil/Palm oil/Soya/Latex etc etc. I have laerned that for aluminium world Upstream(Mining), Midtream(processing/manufacturing) and Downtream(value added chain). Correct me if I m wrong as I classified LBALUM, PMETAL and PMBTECH as mid-downstream players. In common business term, upstream will enjoy "wind fall gain" once the commodities price shoot up to the sky. Midstream however remain in the same P&L position with extra mild gain (if they open position for trading) because they need to BUY HIGH SELL HIGH or BUY LOW SELL LOW. Value-added downstream again is the most robust business model no matter in any commodities markets. Lets discuss about Upstream and Midstream Cost Analisys:

Upstream revenue = (A-cost of sold crude/raw material)-(B-mining/planting cost)
Upstream margin = (A-cost sensitive & fluature)-(B-less volatile)
= Highly sensitive gain/loss

Midstream = (A-cost of goods sold)-(B-raw mat/feedstock)-(C-processing cost)
= (A-mostly locked due to contract)-(B-buy high sell high/buy low sell low)-(C-almost fixed processing cost)

Unless the midstream player open position(trading) or keep very large quantity lower price raw mat. Or may be "used aluminium" always have very small increase when end products price shoot up. Otherwise, these players would have one-off exceptional big gain during the whole rally.

(3). AFter next three(3) quarters, what would be the P&L targets




Hope all guys can guide me more about this aluminium trading matters.

Thanks & Best Regards,
duitKWSPkita

Posted by itsart > 2014-08-16 21:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dylan312 > 2014-08-16 22:28 | Report Abuse

unclez can advice in any recommended stocks to look into?

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-08-19 10:41 | Report Abuse

suit, thanks for your sharing and question. I am afraid I am not expert at aluminum and cannot answer your question.
I give you salute to study in such detail to predict profit and certainly good for picking up relevant stock. I am thinking whether anyone can capture the full details of the chain of event that affect the metal. That requires a lot of news flow and normally this is handled by low latency algo trading platform.

For myself, I mainly look at statements, business in general and overall trend of the sector to look for gems. This way, I can have more choice without too much effort. Another way is to observe stock trending. Although it may be slightly late in party but still can have something to eat. A bit like hyena following the lion.

Having said that, I hope other can help you on this and I am also interested in learning.

Btw, ksl will correct before it shoots up even higher. It has register over 20% increase since I mentioned it on 3rd of August and it need some rest before going further.

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-08-19 10:52 | Report Abuse

Good morning Chinesetea,

Thank you very much for ur kind reply. Luckily I managed to figure out all technical info that I wish to obtain. Now I am quite confident in ALUminium counters prediction. I must thank you and everyone who finding info to clear my doubts.


Nice to chat with you..... I will return to be silent reader in ur thread.


Wish you success in investment world. Live happily always. Help us to donate some to community. Appreciate it!

Happy trading!

Posted by invest1818 > 2014-08-20 09:30 | Report Abuse

Morning bros ^^.

Posted by invest1818 > 2014-08-20 10:54 | Report Abuse

bro chinesetea & bro assamlaksa , latitude can buy in more before the release of its final quarter results? Thanks bros.

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-08-21 09:36 | Report Abuse

Invest, long time no see, really miss you. May like to invite you for tea :-)
Aiyo latitude should buy kuat kuat mah few week ago. Now still can but margin low loh.

Posted by invest1818 > 2014-08-21 16:04 | Report Abuse

Hehe thanks bro.

Posted by dylan312 > 2014-08-21 18:52 | Report Abuse

any1 can advice on any recommended share lately?

Posted by MrWealthy4321 > 2014-08-21 19:04 | Report Abuse

dylan @ no brainer ....the broking firms ....In a super bull run, no brainer there is a group of stocks which will 110% benefit from this phenomenon like the 1993 super bull run read more at http://gorengaddict.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-1993-super-bull-run-debate-continue_4.html

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-08-21 21:58 | Report Abuse

Vitrox excellent result, trust it will set a base and marching from here.
I am still looking forward to the acquisition. Hopefully., management can clarify their strategy in general meeting.

Posted by invest1818 > 2014-08-22 15:41 | Report Abuse

bro chinesetea, wht do you think about Mitra?

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-08-22 15:44 | Report Abuse

Congratulations to all who buy and hold the ox (Vitrox)

Posted by dylan312 > 2014-08-22 18:50 | Report Abuse

thanks mr wealthy and chinesetea, really appreciated it..
Hope that I could be able to learn more from you guyz. please guide me if i am in wrong~ :D

Posted by invest1818 > 2014-08-25 16:06 | Report Abuse

bro chinesetea, any further elaboration on Vitrox on the acquisition that you could share with us?

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-08-25 17:52 | Report Abuse

ctea bro, would like some feedback. Next Q will be more euphoria on GST counters. Much appreciated if you would like to check any beneficiaries on this track.

I am invested @ IFCA, which there is some potential that this counter will gain/benefit from GST implementation (property sector). As it is the main software supplier(70% of property developers are registered with them) and so far only 10% have upgraded. Also its penetration into China.

But there are also other counters with potentials of benefiting from GST implementation which you might have an insight.

Thanks bro.

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-08-29 16:01 | Report Abuse

zoom bro, apa macam? Hope everything is great. Lately too much up and down with Pres, OCK and Hovid too.
But today looks like ada sawi for dinner my friend.

Posted by Samtuckfatt > 2014-08-29 18:57 | Report Abuse

Siva68 , your Ifcamsc habe a great run

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-08-30 13:00 | Report Abuse

Hi Sam, yes for time being it has been a good run. An article is out in The Star Business today with investors and possibilities of institutional players coming in.
Looking forward for next week weather how strong the euphoria is going to be with more news coming out, also especially if savvy investor Brahmal Vasudevan is going to invest more.
Hoping for good week. May be with a new TP for mid term investment.

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-09-01 20:14 | Report Abuse

ctea, zoom, asam, uncle tewnama, invest, 1n, sam and others too.

Just my 2 cents input, starting this Q will more be more on GST counters.
May be some of you can unlock the good counters.

Sometimes it does not make sense why certain counters just go up under an euphoria but it happens.

Anyway, we also invest in the market to make some decent and reasonable profit (if not why do we invest).

Yes, try to unlock some good GST counters, may be with some fundamentals attached. Could be a good investment for short to mid term.

For time being, have a look at Censof.
IFCA, has gone up so much but I'm not sure how far Brahmal will invest or
how much the stock will go up.

Also can just keep an eye on Abric. (mentioned much earlier). May be something is brewing but not sure.

Happy trading everyone. Wishing everyone to make a decent good gain for all investments and most of all SELAMAT HARI MERDEKA.

YES IT HAS BEEN '57 YEARS'. Have a great day my friends.

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-09-01 22:32 | Report Abuse

One penny stock, you might want to keep an eye too.
Back making profit, no news yet if they are venturing into any O&G related field (if not mistaken, they were looking into this field early part of the year). May be worth while if there is any news.

Hubline.

Warrant expiring in 2019. Exercise price @ 0.20

Posted by laughnonstop > 2014-09-01 22:35 | Report Abuse

my fren chinesetea hiding for months already..hey come out play la, i promise i wont laugh at u for more than 5 min..

plssss.

Posted by tewnama > 2014-09-04 19:18 | Report Abuse

apa cakap
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/09/04/Insurer-AIA-ups-stake-in-Prestariang/

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-09-05 06:08 | Report Abuse

Invest, nice to hear from you. Been to holiday few weeks and in my new role in IB, lots of things to catch up. Vitrox just acquire some land to expand. Mainly supported by Mida and plan to hire 3000 employee. Looking to get 11 percent compound growth. It's getting better because some competitor may exit and business wise very good.

Siva, haven't look at get counter for sometime. Your choice normally good. I have been collecting few shares after ksl like job street and tekseng is on my list.

Tewnama,
Presbhd getting better and with more pension fund and insurance company buying this is as good as some blue chip counter that give good dividend. Downside is most of this counter will become less likely to grow as quick as before. A bit like maybank and Digi, will grow but slowly. Good things is it has strong support and can withstand major correction.


Btw ecb has decided to stimulate Europe economy by reducing interest rate and purchasing asset back securities. This will have positive effects on mortgage and share market too overall.

Happy Merdeka. (Sorry a bit late). Use your freedom to share wisely while you can. Take care.

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-09-05 18:34 | Report Abuse

ctea, may be want to look at some good GST counters. Which might be worth while for next Q.

IFCA on properties.

CENSOF if they are going to get GOVT contract for the bulk of our daily GST tax implementation with regards to customs and also others (eateries, hotels, groceries..... (they were the one earlier tied to this project). Not sure if you have any info on this.

Tekseng is doing well, congrats so did ksl. Best of investment ctea.

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-05 18:48 | Report Abuse

Dear Unclez,
Dear asamlaksa,
Dear tewnama,
Dear chinesetea,

Hi good day to you all. I have finished my first write up on BOILERMECH based on Fundamental points of view. May I have a humble request to invite you to review my analysis. I am looking for any opportunity to learn and to improve myself. When time is allowed hope you guys give me an assistance to review my work.

Again my humble request to invite you to http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/901291335.jsp

Hope to receive your feedback sooner.

Warnest regards,
newbie duit

Posted by zoomboom > 2014-09-06 14:51 | Report Abuse

Siva bro, sori for the late response - been busy recuperating. congrats on your GST counters windfall :-) huat ar! :-)

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-09-07 11:16 | Report Abuse

zoom bro, no prob and good to hear from you. Thanks for the wishes, hope you are making good too. The GST euphoria has not stopped yet, Most likely will continue till the Budget presentation and after that (also need to trade with cautious).

Hubline will be good, if it can prove that its out of the woods and they are getting/got some good investment projects. It is still relatively cheap. May be someone can shed some light over this counter in due time.

Will be a good investment if the prospect is there.
zoom bro, all the best and hope your recuperating process is on its best way ahead. Take care, bro.

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-09-09 14:49 | Report Abuse

Siva, you got abric? Any news? Worth collecting?

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-09-09 15:13 | Report Abuse

Duit your article look good. How does it compared to Cbip. I think Cbip provide a full package with potential in its young trees and diversified business. It's boiler manufacturing may not as big but it has contact via it's Palm oil mill business. Anyway good write up and I may consider investing once I gather enough fund and info.

Posted by zoomboom > 2014-09-09 15:15 | Report Abuse

Siva bro, thanks for your well wishes bro. Yeah I m recuperating pretty well, progress is good. :-)
Me still setia dgn my holdings. Got tambah tampok here and there. It's very rewarding watching it grow...albeit 'slower' compared to the 'hot' stocks - perhaps I just dun want to get burnt so didn't really "chase the dragon" lol.

Looks like your analysis on GST counters "euphoria" is spot on siva bro. Like chinesetea bro asks, I remember u were the first to talk about ABRIC. What's the gist on this counter bro? And HUBLINE bila will announce the out of the woods results? ...

Thanks bro in advance.
Wish u continued huatx3 and abundance in health for u n family.

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-09-09 17:42 | Report Abuse

ctea and zoom, still holding Abric. Have been holding this may be for 2 months. Earlier news was a take over by a foreign company, that's when the correction came in later moving sideways before now moving up again.
Real story, sorry me also not sure (also waiting) but usually comes out when it peaks (which will be a bit late).
Other news is, support level is at 0.745, I am waiting for it to cross 0.79 if it is really going to fly.
Some correction today, have to see tomorrow morning how the opening and mid day close to get some clear picture.

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-09-09 17:58 | Report Abuse

zoom bro, ini Hubline, difficult to say. I went in warrant lately (1 lot only) at 0.02. Just waiting for some news to come out than may be it will fly (long term investment). Still cheap. (Expiry 2019).
They were not doing well earlier with loss making in the shipping industry. Today, they have turned around back to the black. Also, there was a write up in The Edge (beginning of the year), if not mistaken venturing into O&G (not sure, this has taken place).
I am just waiting for next Q results or before that any research house comes out with a TP.
zoom bro, this one I just park and keep. If there is luck, it might go up.

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-09-09 18:03 | Report Abuse

Thanks Siva for your explanation. Today I also add BSB. Yinson collect some for long term.

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-09-09 18:28 | Report Abuse

Hi ctea, you are most welcome and know that it might not be much of help from my above explanation. May be want to keep an eye on IFCA since now correction is on going also due to the Brahmal effect.
One Research house, has put TP @ 0.53.
May be can see an entry price before any GST talk comes out from the budget announcement. Just my 2 cents on this.

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-09-10 17:15 | Report Abuse

Hei guys, have to make own decisions. I do not want to make any recommendations on the counters that I went in.
Just keep an eye on IFCA, if there is an opportunity to enter.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-09-10 17:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-09-14 04:31 | Report Abuse

Congratulations to those follow to buy ksl. In merely a month the price has rise from 3.1 to 4.59 closing price.

Gems like this do not come along often. Congratulations to those that bought tekseng. Make sure you take profit according to your risk appetite. Don't ask me how far it can go. No shares
can up forever.
Ask the guy above why, lol.
I will post some stock pick whenever I find some but will be less
regular. Hopefully unclez can give us some too.
Thank you and take care.

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-09-15 21:20 | Report Abuse

Thanks ctea. Much appreciated.

Posted by laughnonstop > 2014-09-15 22:10 | Report Abuse

Laughdieme. Thambi u hiding so long where wor. I send fbi look for u also cant find.

Posted by itsart > 2014-09-17 00:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-09-20 02:08 | Report Abuse

Just to correct my earlier typo. I have been collecting two stocks in last week, one is bcb(not bsb) and the other is muh.
After Scotland vote no for independence and Us decide to delay interest rate rise, we Wil see market gaining new height until the next bad news. Alibaba will also push index to be higher. Thanks itstart for sharing the link.Have a nice week end.

Posted by itsart > 2014-09-21 12:19 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by itsart > 2014-09-21 12:20 | Report Abuse

welcome chinesetea, this group is about sharing. just for additional useful reading.

Posted by matrix6050 > 2014-09-24 14:10 | Report Abuse

OCK Keeping An Eye On Regional Prospects - http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/60391.jsp