Base on “
Ooi Teik Bee ” suggestion
"Buy when everyone is fearful" , I backtesting it. If today KLSE was down (
fearful) or up (happy), how about tomorrow market? I compare between KLSE/ KLCI, DOW 30, HSI and SSE001.
The results as below:
KLSE/ KLCI
FROM 1999 TO 20/10/2015 |
|
Next Day Average |
Totals Count |
sum |
Down (Qty) |
Don’t Change (Qty) |
Up (Qty) |
Today Down |
-0.09% |
1930 |
-168.24% |
994 |
7 |
929 |
No change |
0.25% |
44 |
10.85% |
16 |
1 |
27 |
Today Up |
0.13% |
2177 |
290.68% |
926 |
22 |
1229 |
|
Today Down > 1% |
-0.13% |
362 |
-47.79% |
199 |
4 |
159 |
Today Up > 1% |
0.32% |
409 |
132.61% |
166 |
7 |
236 |
Explain:
Today up =(Today close – Last day close)% > 0%
Today down=(Today close – Last day close)% < 0%
Next day average = Average % (Next day close – Today close)
HSI
FROM 1999 TO 20/10/2015 |
|
Next Day Average |
Totals Count |
sum |
Down (Qty) |
Don’t Change (Qty) |
Up (Qty) |
Today Down |
-0.01% |
1999 |
-25.99% |
949 |
26 |
1024 |
No change |
0.37% |
65 |
24.24% |
24 |
3 |
38 |
Today Up |
0.06% |
2127 |
136.31% |
1026 |
36 |
1065 |
|
Today Down > 1% |
0.04% |
807 |
28.47% |
383 |
7 |
417 |
Today Up > 1% |
0.10% |
870 |
85.27% |
393 |
15 |
462 |
SSE001 (China)
FROM 1999 TO 20/10/2015 |
|
Next Day Average |
Totals Count |
sum |
Down (Qty) |
Don’t Change (Qty) |
Up (Qty) |
Today Down |
-0.01% |
1907 |
-17.79% |
949 |
22 |
936 |
No change |
0.11% |
226 |
24.39% |
27 |
160 |
39 |
Today Up |
0.07% |
2123 |
155.15% |
977 |
43 |
1103 |
|
Today Down > 1% |
0.07% |
789 |
57.90% |
335 |
7 |
447 |
Today Up > 1% |
0.18% |
877 |
156.29% |
366 |
16 |
495 |
DOW30
FROM 1999 TO 20/10/2015 |
|
Next Day Average |
Totals Count |
sum |
Down (Qty) |
Don’t Change (Qty) |
Up (Qty) |
Today Down |
0.08% |
1996 |
151.04% |
885 |
11 |
1100 |
No change |
-0.41% |
25 |
-10.36% |
15 |
0 |
10 |
Today Up |
-0.02% |
2206 |
-52.92% |
1097 |
14 |
1095 |
|
Today Down > 1% |
0.13% |
593 |
74.88% |
262 |
4 |
327 |
Today Up > 1% |
-0.09% |
604 |
-51.84% |
316 |
4 |
284 |
Base on today backtesting, KLSE, HSI and HSI if market down (fearful) next day average down (Sell/ run when fear), only DOW 30/ DJI can do it "Buy when everyone is fearful".
If we consider trand follow KLSE/ KLCI > SSE001 > HIS > DOW30. Can we consider KLSE more emotion than HSI or SSE001 market? When change > 1%, KLSE trend more significant.
How about today KLSE stock market compare last time?
“Last time” from 1999 to 2003
FROM 1999 TO 2003 |
|
Next Day Average |
Totals Count |
sum |
Down (Qty) |
Don’t Change (Qty) |
Up (Qty) |
Today Down |
0.16% |
613 |
-98.94% |
329 |
5 |
279 |
No change |
0.32% |
9 |
2.90% |
5 |
0 |
4 |
Today Up |
0.23% |
608 |
139.37% |
279 |
4 |
325 |
|
Today Down > 1% |
-0.26% |
171 |
-43.76% |
95 |
0 |
76 |
Today Up > 1% |
0.39% |
202 |
77.87% |
89 |
1 |
112 |
“Now” from 2011 to 2015.
FROM 2011 TO 20/10/2015 |
|
Next Day Average |
Totals Count |
sum |
Down (Qty) |
Don’t Change (Qty) |
Up (Qty) |
Today Down |
-0.07% |
546 |
-35.60% |
276 |
9 |
261 |
No change |
0.22% |
15 |
3.29% |
3 |
1 |
11 |
Today Up |
0.07% |
624 |
45.36% |
267 |
5 |
352 |
|
Today Down > 1% |
-0.03% |
62 |
-1.67% |
31 |
1 |
30 |
Today Up > 1% |
0.30% |
52 |
15.53% |
14 |
2 |
36 |
We try to compare it by Today Up (Next day average) – Today Down (Next day average).
From 1999 to 2003
Today Up (Next day average) – Today Down (Next day average) = 0.23% - 0.16%
=0.07%
From 2011 to 20/10/2015
Today Up (Next day average) – Today Down (Next day average) = 0.07% - (-0.07%)
=0.14%
Look like the trend 2011 to 20/10/2015 strong than 1999 to 2003.
But for Up/Down >1%
From 1999 to 2003
Today Up (Next day average) – Today Down (Next day average) =0.39% - (-0.26%)
=0.65%
From 2011 to 20/10/2015
Today Up (Next day average) – Today Down (Next day average) = 0.30% - (-0.03%)
= 0.33%
1999 to 2003 have strong trend compare 2011 to 20/10/2015.
In KLSE "Buy when everyone is fearful" not suitable for day trade FKLI.
apanama
FKLI is derivative...if u 'play' derivative like you 'play' stocks...u are digging your own graveyard..
2015-11-12 22:31